About
Roger J Kerr is Executive Chairman of Barrington Treasury Services NZ Limited. He has written commentaries on the NZ dollar since 1981.
Roger J Kerr
Latest articles
Roger J Kerr says speculators are sitting on large profits and he wonders when they will cash up
18th Nov 24, 8:14am
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Roger J Kerr says speculators are sitting on large profits and he wonders when they will cash up
Roger J Kerr examines some of the questions posed in the aftermath of the US election
11th Nov 24, 8:22am
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Roger J Kerr examines some of the questions posed in the aftermath of the US election
Roger J Kerr examines the scenarios for the forthcoming election and the potential impact on the US and Kiwi dollars
4th Nov 24, 8:16am
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Roger J Kerr examines the scenarios for the forthcoming election and the potential impact on the US and Kiwi dollars
Roger J Kerr looks at what betting markets are indicating and what traders are thinking. Self-interested bias with OPM? Meanwhile, Japanese political turmoil confuses the interest rate and Yen currency outlook
28th Oct 24, 9:10am
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Roger J Kerr looks at what betting markets are indicating and what traders are thinking. Self-interested bias with OPM? Meanwhile, Japanese political turmoil confuses the interest rate and Yen currency outlook
Roger J Kerr looks at the scenarios and potential outcome of the US election
Roger J Kerr says the the reality is that the New Zealand economy still has a major problem with sticky/high non-tradable inflation from the public sector and non-competitive sectors of the economy
14th Oct 24, 8:59am
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Roger J Kerr says the the reality is that the New Zealand economy still has a major problem with sticky/high non-tradable inflation from the public sector and non-competitive sectors of the economy
Roger J Kerr says the latest US jobs data leaves unanswered questions
Roger J Kerr outlines why the New Zealand dollar has been rising
Roger J Kerr says what is important for the future NZ dollar direction is whether the US dollar continues to depreciate and how much the Australian dollar and Japanese Yen - which the NZD follows - benefit from that
23rd Sep 24, 8:28am
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Roger J Kerr says what is important for the future NZ dollar direction is whether the US dollar continues to depreciate and how much the Australian dollar and Japanese Yen - which the NZD follows - benefit from that
Roger J Kerr says the historical correlation would suggest the Japanese Yen still has a lot further to appreciate towards 130.00 and even lower as the bond differential heads to 2.50% through higher Japanese yields and lower US yields
16th Sep 24, 8:26am
Roger J Kerr says the historical correlation would suggest the Japanese Yen still has a lot further to appreciate towards 130.00 and even lower as the bond differential heads to 2.50% through higher Japanese yields and lower US yields
Roger J Kerr says all the economic indicators and financial market direction in the US point to continuing lower interest rates and a depreciating US dollar value
9th Sep 24, 8:27am
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Roger J Kerr says all the economic indicators and financial market direction in the US point to continuing lower interest rates and a depreciating US dollar value
Roger J Kerr says if the US had up-to-date and accurate economic measures of rents and jobs in the US economy, the Fed would have cut interest rates many months earlier
2nd Sep 24, 8:27am
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Roger J Kerr says if the US had up-to-date and accurate economic measures of rents and jobs in the US economy, the Fed would have cut interest rates many months earlier
Roger J Kerr says the US dollar has further to fall as the Fed commence the interest rate cutting cycle
26th Aug 24, 8:42am
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Roger J Kerr says the US dollar has further to fall as the Fed commence the interest rate cutting cycle
Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ claim of victory over inflation may be premature
Roger J Kerr believes the likely outcome of this week's Official Cash Rate review is that Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr 'will keep the markets guessing for a while longer'
12th Aug 24, 8:33am
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Roger J Kerr believes the likely outcome of this week's Official Cash Rate review is that Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr 'will keep the markets guessing for a while longer'
Roger J Kerr says the full extent of the USD depreciation has not (yet) been reflected in the NZD/USD exchange rate
5th Aug 24, 8:44am
Roger J Kerr says the full extent of the USD depreciation has not (yet) been reflected in the NZD/USD exchange rate
Roger J Kerr says the Yen carry-trade unwinding may have run its course, meaning expectation is the Kiwi and Australian dollars should stabilise and reverse back upwards over coming weeks
29th Jul 24, 8:46am
Roger J Kerr says the Yen carry-trade unwinding may have run its course, meaning expectation is the Kiwi and Australian dollars should stabilise and reverse back upwards over coming weeks
Roger J Kerr says “the Donald” has delivered an unmistakable signal that, should he win the Presidency, weakening the value of the US dollar would be a priority policy
22nd Jul 24, 8:55am
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Roger J Kerr says “the Donald” has delivered an unmistakable signal that, should he win the Presidency, weakening the value of the US dollar would be a priority policy
Roger J Kerr says the monetary policy path ahead is looking considerably more certain in the US than it is here
15th Jul 24, 7:39am
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Roger J Kerr says the monetary policy path ahead is looking considerably more certain in the US than it is here
Roger J Kerr says historical adjustments to US jobs data are so large it makes a complete mockery of the efficacy and accuracy of the payrolls data as a reliable measure of employment trends in the US economy
8th Jul 24, 9:00am
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Roger J Kerr says historical adjustments to US jobs data are so large it makes a complete mockery of the efficacy and accuracy of the payrolls data as a reliable measure of employment trends in the US economy
Roger J Kerr says fears of US inflation increasing again are misplaced
Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ has refused to orchestrate a higher NZ dollar currency value to force tradable inflation down to offset the non-tradeable inflation it has no control over
24th Jun 24, 8:48am
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Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ has refused to orchestrate a higher NZ dollar currency value to force tradable inflation down to offset the non-tradeable inflation it has no control over
Roger J Kerr says Fed members with their individual quarterly 'dot-plot' interest rate forecasts have been as unpredictable, fickle, changeable and inconsistent as the interest rate and FX markets, in wildly adjusting their outlook
17th Jun 24, 8:49am
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Roger J Kerr says Fed members with their individual quarterly 'dot-plot' interest rate forecasts have been as unpredictable, fickle, changeable and inconsistent as the interest rate and FX markets, in wildly adjusting their outlook
Roger J Kerr says to understand and interpret FX markets you must consistently monitor the sentiment, views and reasons as to why the traders, speculators and investors are increasing or decreasing their currency positions
10th Jun 24, 8:52am
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Roger J Kerr says to understand and interpret FX markets you must consistently monitor the sentiment, views and reasons as to why the traders, speculators and investors are increasing or decreasing their currency positions
Roger J Kerr sees the USD weakening from here after recent soft data. Markets expect the ECB to deliver their signaled rate cut this week. Eyes on the RBA, anticipating a harder line against inflation's extended pressure
3rd Jun 24, 8:00am
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Roger J Kerr sees the USD weakening from here after recent soft data. Markets expect the ECB to deliver their signaled rate cut this week. Eyes on the RBA, anticipating a harder line against inflation's extended pressure