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Roger J Kerr looks at what betting markets are indicating and what traders are thinking. Self-interested bias with OPM? Meanwhile, Japanese political turmoil confuses the interest rate and Yen currency outlook
28th Oct 24, 9:10am
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Roger J Kerr looks at what betting markets are indicating and what traders are thinking. Self-interested bias with OPM? Meanwhile, Japanese political turmoil confuses the interest rate and Yen currency outlook
Roger J Kerr looks at the scenarios and potential outcome of the US election
Roger J Kerr says the the reality is that the New Zealand economy still has a major problem with sticky/high non-tradable inflation from the public sector and non-competitive sectors of the economy
14th Oct 24, 8:59am
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Roger J Kerr says the the reality is that the New Zealand economy still has a major problem with sticky/high non-tradable inflation from the public sector and non-competitive sectors of the economy
Roger J Kerr says the latest US jobs data leaves unanswered questions
[updated]
Latest ANZ Business Outlook survey shows not only that optimism about the future continues to grow, but also the first signs of improvement in current activity
30th Sep 24, 1:25pm
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Latest ANZ Business Outlook survey shows not only that optimism about the future continues to grow, but also the first signs of improvement in current activity
Roger J Kerr outlines why the New Zealand dollar has been rising
Roger J Kerr says what is important for the future NZ dollar direction is whether the US dollar continues to depreciate and how much the Australian dollar and Japanese Yen - which the NZD follows - benefit from that
23rd Sep 24, 8:28am
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Roger J Kerr says what is important for the future NZ dollar direction is whether the US dollar continues to depreciate and how much the Australian dollar and Japanese Yen - which the NZD follows - benefit from that
Roger J Kerr says the historical correlation would suggest the Japanese Yen still has a lot further to appreciate towards 130.00 and even lower as the bond differential heads to 2.50% through higher Japanese yields and lower US yields
16th Sep 24, 8:26am
Roger J Kerr says the historical correlation would suggest the Japanese Yen still has a lot further to appreciate towards 130.00 and even lower as the bond differential heads to 2.50% through higher Japanese yields and lower US yields
Roger J Kerr says all the economic indicators and financial market direction in the US point to continuing lower interest rates and a depreciating US dollar value
9th Sep 24, 8:27am
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Roger J Kerr says all the economic indicators and financial market direction in the US point to continuing lower interest rates and a depreciating US dollar value
Roger J Kerr says if the US had up-to-date and accurate economic measures of rents and jobs in the US economy, the Fed would have cut interest rates many months earlier
2nd Sep 24, 8:27am
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Roger J Kerr says if the US had up-to-date and accurate economic measures of rents and jobs in the US economy, the Fed would have cut interest rates many months earlier
[updated]
'Things are looking up, albeit from a pretty dark place for many firms', says ANZ; Finance Minister says the survey shows businesses 'are feeling a whole lot better about the future'
29th Aug 24, 1:36pm
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'Things are looking up, albeit from a pretty dark place for many firms', says ANZ; Finance Minister says the survey shows businesses 'are feeling a whole lot better about the future'
Our national airline is not providing any profit guidance for the new financial year in which it expects the 'tougher economic backdrop' of the past year to continue
29th Aug 24, 9:50am
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Our national airline is not providing any profit guidance for the new financial year in which it expects the 'tougher economic backdrop' of the past year to continue
Roger J Kerr says the US dollar has further to fall as the Fed commence the interest rate cutting cycle
26th Aug 24, 8:42am
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Roger J Kerr says the US dollar has further to fall as the Fed commence the interest rate cutting cycle
Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ claim of victory over inflation may be premature
Roger J Kerr believes the likely outcome of this week's Official Cash Rate review is that Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr 'will keep the markets guessing for a while longer'
12th Aug 24, 8:33am
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Roger J Kerr believes the likely outcome of this week's Official Cash Rate review is that Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr 'will keep the markets guessing for a while longer'
Roger J Kerr says the full extent of the USD depreciation has not (yet) been reflected in the NZD/USD exchange rate
5th Aug 24, 8:44am
Roger J Kerr says the full extent of the USD depreciation has not (yet) been reflected in the NZD/USD exchange rate
Latest ANZ Business Outlook survey shows firms showing more confidence about the future even as they report worsening current trading conditions
31st Jul 24, 1:34pm
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Latest ANZ Business Outlook survey shows firms showing more confidence about the future even as they report worsening current trading conditions
Roger J Kerr says the Yen carry-trade unwinding may have run its course, meaning expectation is the Kiwi and Australian dollars should stabilise and reverse back upwards over coming weeks
29th Jul 24, 8:46am
Roger J Kerr says the Yen carry-trade unwinding may have run its course, meaning expectation is the Kiwi and Australian dollars should stabilise and reverse back upwards over coming weeks
Roger J Kerr says “the Donald” has delivered an unmistakable signal that, should he win the Presidency, weakening the value of the US dollar would be a priority policy
22nd Jul 24, 8:55am
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Roger J Kerr says “the Donald” has delivered an unmistakable signal that, should he win the Presidency, weakening the value of the US dollar would be a priority policy
Roger J Kerr says the monetary policy path ahead is looking considerably more certain in the US than it is here
15th Jul 24, 7:39am
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Roger J Kerr says the monetary policy path ahead is looking considerably more certain in the US than it is here
Roger J Kerr says historical adjustments to US jobs data are so large it makes a complete mockery of the efficacy and accuracy of the payrolls data as a reliable measure of employment trends in the US economy
8th Jul 24, 9:00am
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Roger J Kerr says historical adjustments to US jobs data are so large it makes a complete mockery of the efficacy and accuracy of the payrolls data as a reliable measure of employment trends in the US economy
Roger J Kerr says fears of US inflation increasing again are misplaced
ANZ economists are optimistic the Reserve Bank will be in a position to cut the Official Cash Rate 'considerably earlier' than August next year as the RBNZ currently expects
27th Jun 24, 1:28pm
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ANZ economists are optimistic the Reserve Bank will be in a position to cut the Official Cash Rate 'considerably earlier' than August next year as the RBNZ currently expects
Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ has refused to orchestrate a higher NZ dollar currency value to force tradable inflation down to offset the non-tradeable inflation it has no control over
24th Jun 24, 8:48am
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Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ has refused to orchestrate a higher NZ dollar currency value to force tradable inflation down to offset the non-tradeable inflation it has no control over
Roger J Kerr says Fed members with their individual quarterly 'dot-plot' interest rate forecasts have been as unpredictable, fickle, changeable and inconsistent as the interest rate and FX markets, in wildly adjusting their outlook
17th Jun 24, 8:49am
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Roger J Kerr says Fed members with their individual quarterly 'dot-plot' interest rate forecasts have been as unpredictable, fickle, changeable and inconsistent as the interest rate and FX markets, in wildly adjusting their outlook