covid-19
Our national airline says it may have as many as 11 jets out of service between now and the end of June
20th Feb 25, 10:01am
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Our national airline says it may have as many as 11 jets out of service between now and the end of June
Roger J Kerr says a series of softer economic data prints, similar to the retail sales numbers last week, will lead to a rapid shift in interest rate market pricing for Fed rate cuts this year
17th Feb 25, 8:57am
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Roger J Kerr says a series of softer economic data prints, similar to the retail sales numbers last week, will lead to a rapid shift in interest rate market pricing for Fed rate cuts this year
Roger J Kerr says there are a number of US economic data releases that have the potential to cause more USD selling than buying
10th Feb 25, 8:34am
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Roger J Kerr says there are a number of US economic data releases that have the potential to cause more USD selling than buying
Roger J Kerr says the tariffs failed to achieve the objective last time, and the chances are that this time will be no different
3rd Feb 25, 8:32am
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Roger J Kerr says the tariffs failed to achieve the objective last time, and the chances are that this time will be no different
Labour market figures to be released in the coming week, could show unemployment hitting 5% for the first time since a brief spike during the pandemic, but David Hargreaves says with interest rates now coming down employment levels may start to settle
2nd Feb 25, 6:30am
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Labour market figures to be released in the coming week, could show unemployment hitting 5% for the first time since a brief spike during the pandemic, but David Hargreaves says with interest rates now coming down employment levels may start to settle
Roger J Kerr sees an elevated chance the US Dollar's rise may be ending and a new down trend arriving. The NZD will then rise. But he is still looking for policies that improve productivity, so any rise is sustained
27th Jan 25, 8:30am
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Roger J Kerr sees an elevated chance the US Dollar's rise may be ending and a new down trend arriving. The NZD will then rise. But he is still looking for policies that improve productivity, so any rise is sustained
Roger J Kerr says the long USD speculative positioning on the Trump Trades has become extremely crowded and has lasted for longer than anticipated
20th Jan 25, 8:15am
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Roger J Kerr says the long USD speculative positioning on the Trump Trades has become extremely crowded and has lasted for longer than anticipated
Roger J Kerr says current financial market sentiment, positioning and commentary would not suggest that the US dollar is about to do an “about turn” and fall away over coming months
13th Jan 25, 8:27am
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Roger J Kerr says current financial market sentiment, positioning and commentary would not suggest that the US dollar is about to do an “about turn” and fall away over coming months
Roger J Kerr sees the US Fed continuing to change its dot-plots in 2025. He also thinks most local analysts are missing the importance of our much better terms of trade
6th Jan 25, 8:30am
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Roger J Kerr sees the US Fed continuing to change its dot-plots in 2025. He also thinks most local analysts are missing the importance of our much better terms of trade
Roger J Kerr looks at the rollercoaster ride the New Zealand dollar has been on since it was unshackled after the 1984 election
16th Dec 24, 8:25am
Roger J Kerr looks at the rollercoaster ride the New Zealand dollar has been on since it was unshackled after the 1984 election
Roger J Kerr offers an 'alternative' view of how the New Zealand economy will fare over the coming year
9th Dec 24, 8:59am
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Roger J Kerr offers an 'alternative' view of how the New Zealand economy will fare over the coming year
Roger J Kerr says the one-way hurtle up the hill for the US dollar on the Trump election euphoria is displaying distinct signs of spluttering and stalling
2nd Dec 24, 8:55am
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Roger J Kerr says the one-way hurtle up the hill for the US dollar on the Trump election euphoria is displaying distinct signs of spluttering and stalling
Roger J Kerr expects the US Fed will continue to cut interest rates by 0.25% at each meeting over coming months as the US annual inflation rate (PCE measure) slides below 2.00%
25th Nov 24, 8:46am
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Roger J Kerr expects the US Fed will continue to cut interest rates by 0.25% at each meeting over coming months as the US annual inflation rate (PCE measure) slides below 2.00%
Roger J Kerr says speculators are sitting on large profits and he wonders when they will cash up
18th Nov 24, 8:14am
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Roger J Kerr says speculators are sitting on large profits and he wonders when they will cash up
Roger J Kerr examines some of the questions posed in the aftermath of the US election
11th Nov 24, 8:22am
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Roger J Kerr examines some of the questions posed in the aftermath of the US election
Roger J Kerr examines the scenarios for the forthcoming election and the potential impact on the US and Kiwi dollars
4th Nov 24, 8:16am
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Roger J Kerr examines the scenarios for the forthcoming election and the potential impact on the US and Kiwi dollars
Labour market figures to be released in the coming week are expected to show sharply higher numbers of people out of work, but David Hargreaves says it would take a very substantial increase to surprise the Reserve Bank
3rd Nov 24, 7:00am
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Labour market figures to be released in the coming week are expected to show sharply higher numbers of people out of work, but David Hargreaves says it would take a very substantial increase to surprise the Reserve Bank
Roger J Kerr looks at what betting markets are indicating and what traders are thinking. Self-interested bias with OPM? Meanwhile, Japanese political turmoil confuses the interest rate and Yen currency outlook
28th Oct 24, 9:10am
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Roger J Kerr looks at what betting markets are indicating and what traders are thinking. Self-interested bias with OPM? Meanwhile, Japanese political turmoil confuses the interest rate and Yen currency outlook
Roger J Kerr looks at the scenarios and potential outcome of the US election
Roger J Kerr says the the reality is that the New Zealand economy still has a major problem with sticky/high non-tradable inflation from the public sector and non-competitive sectors of the economy
14th Oct 24, 8:59am
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Roger J Kerr says the the reality is that the New Zealand economy still has a major problem with sticky/high non-tradable inflation from the public sector and non-competitive sectors of the economy
[updated]
Statistics New Zealand figures show household net worth dropped by $47 billion in the June quarter, while total income fell for the first time since this data series began in 2016
10th Oct 24, 11:30am
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Statistics New Zealand figures show household net worth dropped by $47 billion in the June quarter, while total income fell for the first time since this data series began in 2016
Roger J Kerr says the latest US jobs data leaves unanswered questions
Roger J Kerr outlines why the New Zealand dollar has been rising
Roger J Kerr says what is important for the future NZ dollar direction is whether the US dollar continues to depreciate and how much the Australian dollar and Japanese Yen - which the NZD follows - benefit from that
23rd Sep 24, 8:28am
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Roger J Kerr says what is important for the future NZ dollar direction is whether the US dollar continues to depreciate and how much the Australian dollar and Japanese Yen - which the NZD follows - benefit from that
Roger J Kerr says the historical correlation would suggest the Japanese Yen still has a lot further to appreciate towards 130.00 and even lower as the bond differential heads to 2.50% through higher Japanese yields and lower US yields
16th Sep 24, 8:26am
Roger J Kerr says the historical correlation would suggest the Japanese Yen still has a lot further to appreciate towards 130.00 and even lower as the bond differential heads to 2.50% through higher Japanese yields and lower US yields