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Roger J Kerr says what is important for the future NZ dollar direction is whether the US dollar continues to depreciate and how much the Australian dollar and Japanese Yen - which the NZD follows - benefit from that
23rd Sep 24, 8:28am
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Roger J Kerr says what is important for the future NZ dollar direction is whether the US dollar continues to depreciate and how much the Australian dollar and Japanese Yen - which the NZD follows - benefit from that
Roger J Kerr says the historical correlation would suggest the Japanese Yen still has a lot further to appreciate towards 130.00 and even lower as the bond differential heads to 2.50% through higher Japanese yields and lower US yields
16th Sep 24, 8:26am
Roger J Kerr says the historical correlation would suggest the Japanese Yen still has a lot further to appreciate towards 130.00 and even lower as the bond differential heads to 2.50% through higher Japanese yields and lower US yields
Roger J Kerr says all the economic indicators and financial market direction in the US point to continuing lower interest rates and a depreciating US dollar value
9th Sep 24, 8:27am
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Roger J Kerr says all the economic indicators and financial market direction in the US point to continuing lower interest rates and a depreciating US dollar value
Roger J Kerr says if the US had up-to-date and accurate economic measures of rents and jobs in the US economy, the Fed would have cut interest rates many months earlier
2nd Sep 24, 8:27am
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Roger J Kerr says if the US had up-to-date and accurate economic measures of rents and jobs in the US economy, the Fed would have cut interest rates many months earlier
Our national airline is not providing any profit guidance for the new financial year in which it expects the 'tougher economic backdrop' of the past year to continue
29th Aug 24, 9:50am
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Our national airline is not providing any profit guidance for the new financial year in which it expects the 'tougher economic backdrop' of the past year to continue
Roger J Kerr says the US dollar has further to fall as the Fed commence the interest rate cutting cycle
26th Aug 24, 8:42am
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Roger J Kerr says the US dollar has further to fall as the Fed commence the interest rate cutting cycle
Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ claim of victory over inflation may be premature
David Hargreaves says it might be in everyone's best interests if the Reserve Bank finds a less blunt way of communicating its thoughts on the future levels of the Official Cash Rate
18th Aug 24, 6:30am
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David Hargreaves says it might be in everyone's best interests if the Reserve Bank finds a less blunt way of communicating its thoughts on the future levels of the Official Cash Rate
Roger J Kerr believes the likely outcome of this week's Official Cash Rate review is that Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr 'will keep the markets guessing for a while longer'
12th Aug 24, 8:33am
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Roger J Kerr believes the likely outcome of this week's Official Cash Rate review is that Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr 'will keep the markets guessing for a while longer'
Roger J Kerr says the full extent of the USD depreciation has not (yet) been reflected in the NZD/USD exchange rate
5th Aug 24, 8:44am
Roger J Kerr says the full extent of the USD depreciation has not (yet) been reflected in the NZD/USD exchange rate
Labour market figures out in the coming week are universally expected to show higher numbers of people out of work, but David Hargreaves says it would need surprisingly high numbers to get the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates as soon as this month
4th Aug 24, 6:00am
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Labour market figures out in the coming week are universally expected to show higher numbers of people out of work, but David Hargreaves says it would need surprisingly high numbers to get the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates as soon as this month
Roger J Kerr says the Yen carry-trade unwinding may have run its course, meaning expectation is the Kiwi and Australian dollars should stabilise and reverse back upwards over coming weeks
29th Jul 24, 8:46am
Roger J Kerr says the Yen carry-trade unwinding may have run its course, meaning expectation is the Kiwi and Australian dollars should stabilise and reverse back upwards over coming weeks
In the latest episode of our Of Interest podcast, Steven Hail gives the MMT perspective on the monetary system, inflation, climate change & more
27th Jul 24, 9:14am
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In the latest episode of our Of Interest podcast, Steven Hail gives the MMT perspective on the monetary system, inflation, climate change & more
Roger J Kerr says “the Donald” has delivered an unmistakable signal that, should he win the Presidency, weakening the value of the US dollar would be a priority policy
22nd Jul 24, 8:55am
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Roger J Kerr says “the Donald” has delivered an unmistakable signal that, should he win the Presidency, weakening the value of the US dollar would be a priority policy
Roger J Kerr says the monetary policy path ahead is looking considerably more certain in the US than it is here
15th Jul 24, 7:39am
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Roger J Kerr says the monetary policy path ahead is looking considerably more certain in the US than it is here
ASB economists say they hope that households will base their future decisions 'on a more realistic outlook' for household incomes, house prices and borrowing costs
9th Jul 24, 8:25am
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ASB economists say they hope that households will base their future decisions 'on a more realistic outlook' for household incomes, house prices and borrowing costs
Roger J Kerr says historical adjustments to US jobs data are so large it makes a complete mockery of the efficacy and accuracy of the payrolls data as a reliable measure of employment trends in the US economy
8th Jul 24, 9:00am
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Roger J Kerr says historical adjustments to US jobs data are so large it makes a complete mockery of the efficacy and accuracy of the payrolls data as a reliable measure of employment trends in the US economy
Statistics New Zealand figures show household net worth increased by $7.8 billion in the March 2024 quarter, even though house and land values dropped by $2 billion
4th Jul 24, 1:11pm
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Statistics New Zealand figures show household net worth increased by $7.8 billion in the March 2024 quarter, even though house and land values dropped by $2 billion
Roger J Kerr says fears of US inflation increasing again are misplaced
Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ has refused to orchestrate a higher NZ dollar currency value to force tradable inflation down to offset the non-tradeable inflation it has no control over
24th Jun 24, 8:48am
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Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ has refused to orchestrate a higher NZ dollar currency value to force tradable inflation down to offset the non-tradeable inflation it has no control over
Roger J Kerr says Fed members with their individual quarterly 'dot-plot' interest rate forecasts have been as unpredictable, fickle, changeable and inconsistent as the interest rate and FX markets, in wildly adjusting their outlook
17th Jun 24, 8:49am
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Roger J Kerr says Fed members with their individual quarterly 'dot-plot' interest rate forecasts have been as unpredictable, fickle, changeable and inconsistent as the interest rate and FX markets, in wildly adjusting their outlook
Roger J Kerr says to understand and interpret FX markets you must consistently monitor the sentiment, views and reasons as to why the traders, speculators and investors are increasing or decreasing their currency positions
10th Jun 24, 8:52am
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Roger J Kerr says to understand and interpret FX markets you must consistently monitor the sentiment, views and reasons as to why the traders, speculators and investors are increasing or decreasing their currency positions
Roger J Kerr sees the USD weakening from here after recent soft data. Markets expect the ECB to deliver their signaled rate cut this week. Eyes on the RBA, anticipating a harder line against inflation's extended pressure
3rd Jun 24, 8:00am
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Roger J Kerr sees the USD weakening from here after recent soft data. Markets expect the ECB to deliver their signaled rate cut this week. Eyes on the RBA, anticipating a harder line against inflation's extended pressure
Roger J Kerr is pleased the sticky inflation problem is getting acknowledged by the RBNZ. And he reviews where the US Fed is at in its assessments of inflation-control progress
27th May 24, 9:11am
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Roger J Kerr is pleased the sticky inflation problem is getting acknowledged by the RBNZ. And he reviews where the US Fed is at in its assessments of inflation-control progress
Roger J Kerr says the constant stream of weaker economic outcomes in New Zealand has not resulted in a weaker NZ dollar over the last 12 months because NZ interest rates are expected to stay higher for longer, relative to US interest rates
20th May 24, 8:30am
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Roger J Kerr says the constant stream of weaker economic outcomes in New Zealand has not resulted in a weaker NZ dollar over the last 12 months because NZ interest rates are expected to stay higher for longer, relative to US interest rates