Business Confidence
Roger J Kerr says the long USD speculative positioning on the Trump Trades has become extremely crowded and has lasted for longer than anticipated
20th Jan 25, 8:15am
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Roger J Kerr says the long USD speculative positioning on the Trump Trades has become extremely crowded and has lasted for longer than anticipated
Economists see latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion as clearing the way for a further substantial cut to the Official Cash Rate next month
15th Jan 25, 9:34am
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Economists see latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion as clearing the way for a further substantial cut to the Official Cash Rate next month
Business sentiment has risen to its highest level since 2021 despite weak demand in the Christmas quarter
14th Jan 25, 10:10am
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Business sentiment has risen to its highest level since 2021 despite weak demand in the Christmas quarter
Roger J Kerr says current financial market sentiment, positioning and commentary would not suggest that the US dollar is about to do an “about turn” and fall away over coming months
13th Jan 25, 8:27am
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Roger J Kerr says current financial market sentiment, positioning and commentary would not suggest that the US dollar is about to do an “about turn” and fall away over coming months
Roger J Kerr sees the US Fed continuing to change its dot-plots in 2025. He also thinks most local analysts are missing the importance of our much better terms of trade
6th Jan 25, 8:30am
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Roger J Kerr sees the US Fed continuing to change its dot-plots in 2025. He also thinks most local analysts are missing the importance of our much better terms of trade
Latest ANZ Business Outlook survey shows companies reporting a significant increase in activity - but there was a 'surprising' rise in expected costs as well
19th Dec 24, 1:28pm
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Latest ANZ Business Outlook survey shows companies reporting a significant increase in activity - but there was a 'surprising' rise in expected costs as well
Roger J Kerr looks at the rollercoaster ride the New Zealand dollar has been on since it was unshackled after the 1984 election
16th Dec 24, 8:25am
Roger J Kerr looks at the rollercoaster ride the New Zealand dollar has been on since it was unshackled after the 1984 election
Roger J Kerr offers an 'alternative' view of how the New Zealand economy will fare over the coming year
9th Dec 24, 8:59am
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Roger J Kerr offers an 'alternative' view of how the New Zealand economy will fare over the coming year
Roger J Kerr says the one-way hurtle up the hill for the US dollar on the Trump election euphoria is displaying distinct signs of spluttering and stalling
2nd Dec 24, 8:55am
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Roger J Kerr says the one-way hurtle up the hill for the US dollar on the Trump election euphoria is displaying distinct signs of spluttering and stalling
Latest ANZ Business Outlook survey shows the economy is still very weak 'but things are starting to turn higher'
28th Nov 24, 1:29pm
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Latest ANZ Business Outlook survey shows the economy is still very weak 'but things are starting to turn higher'
Roger J Kerr expects the US Fed will continue to cut interest rates by 0.25% at each meeting over coming months as the US annual inflation rate (PCE measure) slides below 2.00%
25th Nov 24, 8:46am
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Roger J Kerr expects the US Fed will continue to cut interest rates by 0.25% at each meeting over coming months as the US annual inflation rate (PCE measure) slides below 2.00%
Roger J Kerr says speculators are sitting on large profits and he wonders when they will cash up
18th Nov 24, 8:14am
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Roger J Kerr says speculators are sitting on large profits and he wonders when they will cash up
Roger J Kerr examines some of the questions posed in the aftermath of the US election
11th Nov 24, 8:22am
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Roger J Kerr examines some of the questions posed in the aftermath of the US election
Roger J Kerr examines the scenarios for the forthcoming election and the potential impact on the US and Kiwi dollars
4th Nov 24, 8:16am
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Roger J Kerr examines the scenarios for the forthcoming election and the potential impact on the US and Kiwi dollars
Latest ANZ Business Outlook survey shows business optimism is continuing to rise on the back of steady falls in interest rates
31st Oct 24, 2:29pm
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Latest ANZ Business Outlook survey shows business optimism is continuing to rise on the back of steady falls in interest rates
Roger J Kerr looks at what betting markets are indicating and what traders are thinking. Self-interested bias with OPM? Meanwhile, Japanese political turmoil confuses the interest rate and Yen currency outlook
28th Oct 24, 9:10am
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Roger J Kerr looks at what betting markets are indicating and what traders are thinking. Self-interested bias with OPM? Meanwhile, Japanese political turmoil confuses the interest rate and Yen currency outlook
Roger J Kerr looks at the scenarios and potential outcome of the US election
Roger J Kerr says the the reality is that the New Zealand economy still has a major problem with sticky/high non-tradable inflation from the public sector and non-competitive sectors of the economy
14th Oct 24, 8:59am
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Roger J Kerr says the the reality is that the New Zealand economy still has a major problem with sticky/high non-tradable inflation from the public sector and non-competitive sectors of the economy
Roger J Kerr says the latest US jobs data leaves unanswered questions
Economists warn there is a rising risk of deflation if the Reserve Bank doesn’t cut interest rates fast enough
1st Oct 24, 3:31pm
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Economists warn there is a rising risk of deflation if the Reserve Bank doesn’t cut interest rates fast enough
Weak pricing data in business survey supports further interest rate cuts, NZIER says
1st Oct 24, 10:04am
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Weak pricing data in business survey supports further interest rate cuts, NZIER says
[updated]
Latest ANZ Business Outlook survey shows not only that optimism about the future continues to grow, but also the first signs of improvement in current activity
30th Sep 24, 1:25pm
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Latest ANZ Business Outlook survey shows not only that optimism about the future continues to grow, but also the first signs of improvement in current activity
Roger J Kerr outlines why the New Zealand dollar has been rising
Roger J Kerr says what is important for the future NZ dollar direction is whether the US dollar continues to depreciate and how much the Australian dollar and Japanese Yen - which the NZD follows - benefit from that
23rd Sep 24, 8:28am
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Roger J Kerr says what is important for the future NZ dollar direction is whether the US dollar continues to depreciate and how much the Australian dollar and Japanese Yen - which the NZD follows - benefit from that
Roger J Kerr says the historical correlation would suggest the Japanese Yen still has a lot further to appreciate towards 130.00 and even lower as the bond differential heads to 2.50% through higher Japanese yields and lower US yields
16th Sep 24, 8:26am
Roger J Kerr says the historical correlation would suggest the Japanese Yen still has a lot further to appreciate towards 130.00 and even lower as the bond differential heads to 2.50% through higher Japanese yields and lower US yields