Business Confidence
Roger J Kerr says the tariffs failed to achieve the objective last time, and the chances are that this time will be no different
3rd Feb 25, 8:32am
Roger J Kerr says the tariffs failed to achieve the objective last time, and the chances are that this time will be no different
ANZ chief economist says perhaps reality is biting for businesses as it becomes clear falling interest rates will take time to 'work their magic'
30th Jan 25, 1:26pm
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ANZ chief economist says perhaps reality is biting for businesses as it becomes clear falling interest rates will take time to 'work their magic'
Roger J Kerr sees an elevated chance the US Dollar's rise may be ending and a new down trend arriving. The NZD will then rise. But he is still looking for policies that improve productivity, so any rise is sustained
27th Jan 25, 8:30am
4
Roger J Kerr sees an elevated chance the US Dollar's rise may be ending and a new down trend arriving. The NZD will then rise. But he is still looking for policies that improve productivity, so any rise is sustained
Roger J Kerr says the long USD speculative positioning on the Trump Trades has become extremely crowded and has lasted for longer than anticipated
20th Jan 25, 8:15am
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Roger J Kerr says the long USD speculative positioning on the Trump Trades has become extremely crowded and has lasted for longer than anticipated
Economists see latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion as clearing the way for a further substantial cut to the Official Cash Rate next month
15th Jan 25, 9:34am
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Economists see latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion as clearing the way for a further substantial cut to the Official Cash Rate next month
Business sentiment has risen to its highest level since 2021 despite weak demand in the Christmas quarter
14th Jan 25, 10:10am
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Business sentiment has risen to its highest level since 2021 despite weak demand in the Christmas quarter
Roger J Kerr says current financial market sentiment, positioning and commentary would not suggest that the US dollar is about to do an “about turn” and fall away over coming months
13th Jan 25, 8:27am
8
Roger J Kerr says current financial market sentiment, positioning and commentary would not suggest that the US dollar is about to do an “about turn” and fall away over coming months
Roger J Kerr sees the US Fed continuing to change its dot-plots in 2025. He also thinks most local analysts are missing the importance of our much better terms of trade
6th Jan 25, 8:30am
14
Roger J Kerr sees the US Fed continuing to change its dot-plots in 2025. He also thinks most local analysts are missing the importance of our much better terms of trade
Latest ANZ Business Outlook survey shows companies reporting a significant increase in activity - but there was a 'surprising' rise in expected costs as well
19th Dec 24, 1:28pm
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Latest ANZ Business Outlook survey shows companies reporting a significant increase in activity - but there was a 'surprising' rise in expected costs as well
Roger J Kerr looks at the rollercoaster ride the New Zealand dollar has been on since it was unshackled after the 1984 election
16th Dec 24, 8:25am
Roger J Kerr looks at the rollercoaster ride the New Zealand dollar has been on since it was unshackled after the 1984 election
Roger J Kerr offers an 'alternative' view of how the New Zealand economy will fare over the coming year
9th Dec 24, 8:59am
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Roger J Kerr offers an 'alternative' view of how the New Zealand economy will fare over the coming year
Roger J Kerr says the one-way hurtle up the hill for the US dollar on the Trump election euphoria is displaying distinct signs of spluttering and stalling
2nd Dec 24, 8:55am
2
Roger J Kerr says the one-way hurtle up the hill for the US dollar on the Trump election euphoria is displaying distinct signs of spluttering and stalling
Latest ANZ Business Outlook survey shows the economy is still very weak 'but things are starting to turn higher'
28th Nov 24, 1:29pm
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Latest ANZ Business Outlook survey shows the economy is still very weak 'but things are starting to turn higher'
Roger J Kerr expects the US Fed will continue to cut interest rates by 0.25% at each meeting over coming months as the US annual inflation rate (PCE measure) slides below 2.00%
25th Nov 24, 8:46am
3
Roger J Kerr expects the US Fed will continue to cut interest rates by 0.25% at each meeting over coming months as the US annual inflation rate (PCE measure) slides below 2.00%
Roger J Kerr says speculators are sitting on large profits and he wonders when they will cash up
18th Nov 24, 8:14am
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Roger J Kerr says speculators are sitting on large profits and he wonders when they will cash up
Roger J Kerr examines some of the questions posed in the aftermath of the US election
11th Nov 24, 8:22am
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Roger J Kerr examines some of the questions posed in the aftermath of the US election
Roger J Kerr examines the scenarios for the forthcoming election and the potential impact on the US and Kiwi dollars
4th Nov 24, 8:16am
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Roger J Kerr examines the scenarios for the forthcoming election and the potential impact on the US and Kiwi dollars
Latest ANZ Business Outlook survey shows business optimism is continuing to rise on the back of steady falls in interest rates
31st Oct 24, 2:29pm
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Latest ANZ Business Outlook survey shows business optimism is continuing to rise on the back of steady falls in interest rates
Roger J Kerr looks at what betting markets are indicating and what traders are thinking. Self-interested bias with OPM? Meanwhile, Japanese political turmoil confuses the interest rate and Yen currency outlook
28th Oct 24, 9:10am
8
Roger J Kerr looks at what betting markets are indicating and what traders are thinking. Self-interested bias with OPM? Meanwhile, Japanese political turmoil confuses the interest rate and Yen currency outlook
Roger J Kerr looks at the scenarios and potential outcome of the US election
Roger J Kerr says the the reality is that the New Zealand economy still has a major problem with sticky/high non-tradable inflation from the public sector and non-competitive sectors of the economy
14th Oct 24, 8:59am
14
Roger J Kerr says the the reality is that the New Zealand economy still has a major problem with sticky/high non-tradable inflation from the public sector and non-competitive sectors of the economy
Roger J Kerr says the latest US jobs data leaves unanswered questions
Economists warn there is a rising risk of deflation if the Reserve Bank doesn’t cut interest rates fast enough
1st Oct 24, 3:31pm
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Economists warn there is a rising risk of deflation if the Reserve Bank doesn’t cut interest rates fast enough
Weak pricing data in business survey supports further interest rate cuts, NZIER says
1st Oct 24, 10:04am
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Weak pricing data in business survey supports further interest rate cuts, NZIER says
[updated]
Latest ANZ Business Outlook survey shows not only that optimism about the future continues to grow, but also the first signs of improvement in current activity
30th Sep 24, 1:25pm
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Latest ANZ Business Outlook survey shows not only that optimism about the future continues to grow, but also the first signs of improvement in current activity