Business Confidence
Roger J Kerr says markets quickly move on to the next economic development and the knee-jerk response to a non-economic shock or risk event is nearly always temporary
3rd Mar 25, 8:40am
Roger J Kerr says markets quickly move on to the next economic development and the knee-jerk response to a non-economic shock or risk event is nearly always temporary
ANZ chief economist says it seems clear GDP returned to positive growth in the last three months of 2024
27th Feb 25, 1:22pm
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ANZ chief economist says it seems clear GDP returned to positive growth in the last three months of 2024
Roger J Kerr says many key US economic indicators are expected to print on the softer side as a result of financial pressures, as well as the Trump regime’s chainsaw attack on Federal Government institutions and jobs
24th Feb 25, 8:39am
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Roger J Kerr says many key US economic indicators are expected to print on the softer side as a result of financial pressures, as well as the Trump regime’s chainsaw attack on Federal Government institutions and jobs
Roger J Kerr says a series of softer economic data prints, similar to the retail sales numbers last week, will lead to a rapid shift in interest rate market pricing for Fed rate cuts this year
17th Feb 25, 8:57am
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Roger J Kerr says a series of softer economic data prints, similar to the retail sales numbers last week, will lead to a rapid shift in interest rate market pricing for Fed rate cuts this year
Roger J Kerr says there are a number of US economic data releases that have the potential to cause more USD selling than buying
10th Feb 25, 8:34am
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Roger J Kerr says there are a number of US economic data releases that have the potential to cause more USD selling than buying
Roger J Kerr says the tariffs failed to achieve the objective last time, and the chances are that this time will be no different
3rd Feb 25, 8:32am
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Roger J Kerr says the tariffs failed to achieve the objective last time, and the chances are that this time will be no different
ANZ chief economist says perhaps reality is biting for businesses as it becomes clear falling interest rates will take time to 'work their magic'
30th Jan 25, 1:26pm
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ANZ chief economist says perhaps reality is biting for businesses as it becomes clear falling interest rates will take time to 'work their magic'
Roger J Kerr sees an elevated chance the US Dollar's rise may be ending and a new down trend arriving. The NZD will then rise. But he is still looking for policies that improve productivity, so any rise is sustained
27th Jan 25, 8:30am
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Roger J Kerr sees an elevated chance the US Dollar's rise may be ending and a new down trend arriving. The NZD will then rise. But he is still looking for policies that improve productivity, so any rise is sustained
Roger J Kerr says the long USD speculative positioning on the Trump Trades has become extremely crowded and has lasted for longer than anticipated
20th Jan 25, 8:15am
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Roger J Kerr says the long USD speculative positioning on the Trump Trades has become extremely crowded and has lasted for longer than anticipated
Economists see latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion as clearing the way for a further substantial cut to the Official Cash Rate next month
15th Jan 25, 9:34am
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Economists see latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion as clearing the way for a further substantial cut to the Official Cash Rate next month
Business sentiment has risen to its highest level since 2021 despite weak demand in the Christmas quarter
14th Jan 25, 10:10am
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Business sentiment has risen to its highest level since 2021 despite weak demand in the Christmas quarter
Roger J Kerr says current financial market sentiment, positioning and commentary would not suggest that the US dollar is about to do an “about turn” and fall away over coming months
13th Jan 25, 8:27am
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Roger J Kerr says current financial market sentiment, positioning and commentary would not suggest that the US dollar is about to do an “about turn” and fall away over coming months
Roger J Kerr sees the US Fed continuing to change its dot-plots in 2025. He also thinks most local analysts are missing the importance of our much better terms of trade
6th Jan 25, 8:30am
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Roger J Kerr sees the US Fed continuing to change its dot-plots in 2025. He also thinks most local analysts are missing the importance of our much better terms of trade
Latest ANZ Business Outlook survey shows companies reporting a significant increase in activity - but there was a 'surprising' rise in expected costs as well
19th Dec 24, 1:28pm
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Latest ANZ Business Outlook survey shows companies reporting a significant increase in activity - but there was a 'surprising' rise in expected costs as well
Roger J Kerr looks at the rollercoaster ride the New Zealand dollar has been on since it was unshackled after the 1984 election
16th Dec 24, 8:25am
Roger J Kerr looks at the rollercoaster ride the New Zealand dollar has been on since it was unshackled after the 1984 election
Roger J Kerr offers an 'alternative' view of how the New Zealand economy will fare over the coming year
9th Dec 24, 8:59am
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Roger J Kerr offers an 'alternative' view of how the New Zealand economy will fare over the coming year
Roger J Kerr says the one-way hurtle up the hill for the US dollar on the Trump election euphoria is displaying distinct signs of spluttering and stalling
2nd Dec 24, 8:55am
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Roger J Kerr says the one-way hurtle up the hill for the US dollar on the Trump election euphoria is displaying distinct signs of spluttering and stalling
Latest ANZ Business Outlook survey shows the economy is still very weak 'but things are starting to turn higher'
28th Nov 24, 1:29pm
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Latest ANZ Business Outlook survey shows the economy is still very weak 'but things are starting to turn higher'
Roger J Kerr expects the US Fed will continue to cut interest rates by 0.25% at each meeting over coming months as the US annual inflation rate (PCE measure) slides below 2.00%
25th Nov 24, 8:46am
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Roger J Kerr expects the US Fed will continue to cut interest rates by 0.25% at each meeting over coming months as the US annual inflation rate (PCE measure) slides below 2.00%
Roger J Kerr says speculators are sitting on large profits and he wonders when they will cash up
18th Nov 24, 8:14am
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Roger J Kerr says speculators are sitting on large profits and he wonders when they will cash up
Roger J Kerr examines some of the questions posed in the aftermath of the US election
11th Nov 24, 8:22am
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Roger J Kerr examines some of the questions posed in the aftermath of the US election
Roger J Kerr examines the scenarios for the forthcoming election and the potential impact on the US and Kiwi dollars
4th Nov 24, 8:16am
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Roger J Kerr examines the scenarios for the forthcoming election and the potential impact on the US and Kiwi dollars
Latest ANZ Business Outlook survey shows business optimism is continuing to rise on the back of steady falls in interest rates
31st Oct 24, 2:29pm
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Latest ANZ Business Outlook survey shows business optimism is continuing to rise on the back of steady falls in interest rates
Roger J Kerr looks at what betting markets are indicating and what traders are thinking. Self-interested bias with OPM? Meanwhile, Japanese political turmoil confuses the interest rate and Yen currency outlook
28th Oct 24, 9:10am
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Roger J Kerr looks at what betting markets are indicating and what traders are thinking. Self-interested bias with OPM? Meanwhile, Japanese political turmoil confuses the interest rate and Yen currency outlook
Roger J Kerr looks at the scenarios and potential outcome of the US election