Inflation
[updated]
Reserve Bank cuts OCR to 3.75% and indicates room for more cuts than earlier forecast this year; economists say 'we are all on the same page now'
19th Feb 25, 2:14pm
90
Reserve Bank cuts OCR to 3.75% and indicates room for more cuts than earlier forecast this year; economists say 'we are all on the same page now'
Reserve Bank of Australia cuts its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.1% citing progress on getting inflation down towards its target range
18th Feb 25, 4:32pm
9
Reserve Bank of Australia cuts its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.1% citing progress on getting inflation down towards its target range
The latest quarterly Household Expectations Survey for the Reserve Bank finds that households reckon the inflation rate will be 4.9% in a year and they don't see it being within the 1% to 3% target range over the next five years
18th Feb 25, 3:43pm
43
The latest quarterly Household Expectations Survey for the Reserve Bank finds that households reckon the inflation rate will be 4.9% in a year and they don't see it being within the 1% to 3% target range over the next five years
Members of the 'Shadow Board' the NZIER assembles to state views on the Official Cash Rate strongly agree the OCR will be cut 50 basis points this week - but there's a diversity of views on what should come next
17th Feb 25, 11:47am
16
Members of the 'Shadow Board' the NZIER assembles to state views on the Official Cash Rate strongly agree the OCR will be cut 50 basis points this week - but there's a diversity of views on what should come next
Roger J Kerr says a series of softer economic data prints, similar to the retail sales numbers last week, will lead to a rapid shift in interest rate market pricing for Fed rate cuts this year
17th Feb 25, 8:57am
8
Roger J Kerr says a series of softer economic data prints, similar to the retail sales numbers last week, will lead to a rapid shift in interest rate market pricing for Fed rate cuts this year
A 50-point cut to the Official Cash Rate is a near certainty in the coming week, so attention will quickly turn to whatever signals the Reserve Bank may give about further cuts
16th Feb 25, 6:30am
92
A 50-point cut to the Official Cash Rate is a near certainty in the coming week, so attention will quickly turn to whatever signals the Reserve Bank may give about further cuts
Dean Attewell suggests managing interest rates, mandatory retirement deductions and immigration in tandem to create a more balanced and sustainable housing market
15th Feb 25, 9:25am
81
Dean Attewell suggests managing interest rates, mandatory retirement deductions and immigration in tandem to create a more balanced and sustainable housing market
The IMF says banking systems are largely insulated from inflation, but vulnerabilities at some banks could lead to tradeoffs between containing inflation and protecting financial stability
14th Feb 25, 10:23am
4
The IMF says banking systems are largely insulated from inflation, but vulnerabilities at some banks could lead to tradeoffs between containing inflation and protecting financial stability
[updated]
Influential RBNZ survey has shown drops in the expectations of the future levels of inflation in a move that will give the central bank comfort ahead of its first Official Cash Rate decision of the year next week
13th Feb 25, 3:24pm
40
Influential RBNZ survey has shown drops in the expectations of the future levels of inflation in a move that will give the central bank comfort ahead of its first Official Cash Rate decision of the year next week
[updated]
The Reserve Bank will have to deliver more interest rate cuts than it has signalled this year, or the risk of further job losses will only grow, Kiwibank economists say
10th Feb 25, 1:35pm
65
The Reserve Bank will have to deliver more interest rate cuts than it has signalled this year, or the risk of further job losses will only grow, Kiwibank economists say
Roger J Kerr says there are a number of US economic data releases that have the potential to cause more USD selling than buying
10th Feb 25, 8:34am
2
Roger J Kerr says there are a number of US economic data releases that have the potential to cause more USD selling than buying
Stats NZ says high interest payments on mortgages continue to contribute 'significantly' to living costs
3rd Feb 25, 11:36am
14
Stats NZ says high interest payments on mortgages continue to contribute 'significantly' to living costs
Capital Economics says the resulting surge in US inflation from the announced tariffs is going to 'come faster and be larger than we initially expected'
3rd Feb 25, 9:32am
65
Capital Economics says the resulting surge in US inflation from the announced tariffs is going to 'come faster and be larger than we initially expected'
Roger J Kerr says the tariffs failed to achieve the objective last time, and the chances are that this time will be no different
3rd Feb 25, 8:32am
2
Roger J Kerr says the tariffs failed to achieve the objective last time, and the chances are that this time will be no different
RBNZ chief economist Paul Conway sees dominance of the 'traditional drivers of growth' in the New Zealand economy coming to an end
30th Jan 25, 10:01am
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RBNZ chief economist Paul Conway sees dominance of the 'traditional drivers of growth' in the New Zealand economy coming to an end
RBNZ chief economist Paul Conway says the central bank will have to 'feel its way' as the OCR gets closer to its estimate of neutral and he doesn't see a return to 'ultra-low' rates seen during the early stages of the pandemic any time soon
29th Jan 25, 12:26pm
96
RBNZ chief economist Paul Conway says the central bank will have to 'feel its way' as the OCR gets closer to its estimate of neutral and he doesn't see a return to 'ultra-low' rates seen during the early stages of the pandemic any time soon
HSBC economists expect the Official Cash Rate to be down to 3% by the third quarter of this year and see the economy growing 1.8% in 2025 and 2.5% next year
28th Jan 25, 10:25am
25
HSBC economists expect the Official Cash Rate to be down to 3% by the third quarter of this year and see the economy growing 1.8% in 2025 and 2.5% next year
Roger J Kerr sees an elevated chance the US Dollar's rise may be ending and a new down trend arriving. The NZD will then rise. But he is still looking for policies that improve productivity, so any rise is sustained
27th Jan 25, 8:30am
4
Roger J Kerr sees an elevated chance the US Dollar's rise may be ending and a new down trend arriving. The NZD will then rise. But he is still looking for policies that improve productivity, so any rise is sustained
Bank for International Settlements paper sees significant contribution from businesses' price setting to inflation
21st Jan 25, 5:14pm
2
Bank for International Settlements paper sees significant contribution from businesses' price setting to inflation
Roger J Kerr says the long USD speculative positioning on the Trump Trades has become extremely crowded and has lasted for longer than anticipated
20th Jan 25, 8:15am
1
Roger J Kerr says the long USD speculative positioning on the Trump Trades has become extremely crowded and has lasted for longer than anticipated
David Hargreaves says the December quarter inflation figures to be released in the coming week should paint a 'so-far-so-good' picture, but further out the view looks rather more murky
19th Jan 25, 6:30am
51
David Hargreaves says the December quarter inflation figures to be released in the coming week should paint a 'so-far-so-good' picture, but further out the view looks rather more murky
[updated]
Statistics NZ's Selected Price Indexes show moderate price pressures over December, indicating few likely nasty surprises in next week's December quarter inflation figures
16th Jan 25, 11:25am
56
Statistics NZ's Selected Price Indexes show moderate price pressures over December, indicating few likely nasty surprises in next week's December quarter inflation figures
Economists see latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion as clearing the way for a further substantial cut to the Official Cash Rate next month
15th Jan 25, 9:34am
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Economists see latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion as clearing the way for a further substantial cut to the Official Cash Rate next month
Roger J Kerr says current financial market sentiment, positioning and commentary would not suggest that the US dollar is about to do an “about turn” and fall away over coming months
13th Jan 25, 8:27am
8
Roger J Kerr says current financial market sentiment, positioning and commentary would not suggest that the US dollar is about to do an “about turn” and fall away over coming months
Roger J Kerr sees the US Fed continuing to change its dot-plots in 2025. He also thinks most local analysts are missing the importance of our much better terms of trade
6th Jan 25, 8:30am
14
Roger J Kerr sees the US Fed continuing to change its dot-plots in 2025. He also thinks most local analysts are missing the importance of our much better terms of trade