House prices declined in March even though sales numbers were up strongly, according to the latest figures from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ).
The REINZ House Price Index (HPI), which adjusts for differences in the mix of properties sold each month and is widely regarded as the most accurate indicator of house price movements, declined 0.6% nationally in March from February. It was down 0.7% compared to March last year.
Around the country the biggest monthly declines in the HPI were in the Wellington Region down 1.8%, followed by Bay of Plenty and Tasman/Nelson/Marlborough/West Coast, both down 1.2%. Auckland was down 0.5%.
The HPI was unchanged for the month in Otago, while increases were recorded in Manawatu/Whanganui 0.9%, Southland 0.7%, and Gisborne/Hawke's Bay also 0.7%. See the table below for the full regional figures.
Although the HPI declined in most regions in March, the national median selling price, which does not adjust for changes in the mix of properties sold, was $790,000 in March, up 2.6% compared to February, but down 1.4% compared to March last year.
While selling prices could perhaps be best described as subdued, sales volumes were more lively. The REINZ recorded 7640 residential sales in March, up 12.8% compared to March last year, and the highest number in any month of the year since November 2021. March and November are usually the busiest months for residential property sales.
However, properties were taking longer to sell at a median 41 days in March, up by three days compared to March last year.
The lack of price growth in a period when mortgage interest rates have been falling can likely be explained by the high number of properties for sale, with just over 12,000 residential listings hitting the market in March, up 5% compared to March last year.
"March saw a year-on-year increase in sales, but median prices continue to lag behind," REINZ Acting Chief Executive Rowan Dixon said.
"New Zealand's property market remains the same - high listings result in decreased buyers urgency.," he said.
"If a buyer misses out on a property, they can easily find a similar one for sale," Dixon said.
Volumes sold - REINZ
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Median price - REINZ
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30 Comments
Market is not that energetic for the March month. So many listings will come back on in Summer 26.
Who would have thought house prices could sink under the weight of new listings? That's just insane.
This data does not support CoreLogic’s claim that the market is now into the next stage of growth
That's because there is no Logic at their Core..
And vested interests influencing the narrative.
Now Cotality
The only growth is in the number of houses for sale. More being listed than sold.
But we've turned a corner apparently. Two consecutive months of miniscule price appreciation signifies the start of a boom apparently.
So the peak of summer home selling season, has gone down like a greased eel into a downpipe.
The slow deflating hiss, of lower prices, will pickup its downhill speed, as the soggy wet and cold of winter gets going.
Down a further -10% guaranteed, by Dec 2025.
Only sub 3% interest rates, will turn this largest ever, collapsing NZ housing market around.
I think 'Down a further -10% guaranteed, by Dec 2025' is fairly heroic.
My guess is a couple of percentage points decline by December for Auckland, stable prices for the rest of the Country.
It's interesting to observe the growth over 5 years statistic - which is now at 2% pa. The 'double in ten years' is going to be hard to achieve when they have only gone up 10% over the past five years
If this year is static the Auckland HPI at the start of 2026 will be the same as the start of 2021 - so five years of no change in prices
The job market is grim out there, and more stories in the media coming of those having applied for hundreds of jobs with barely an interview. Job security and maintaining the mortgage are in high focus currently. Moving location or trying to trade up are not, as the chain of sales isn't happening en masse at some point along the way. Add in govt cuts to many sectors, and we have slowing velocity of money. So break out the pot luck dinners, cheapen your tastes, and make the most of life regardless.
So the housing market is bouncing along the bottom, until the soggy ground dislodge over winter
Waiting for Cote d'Azur to come in with a spruiking comment.......crickets.....
All DGM are waiting because it's so boring in the property comments section... a small DGM echo chamber.
Imagine attesting to the mother of all crashes and your backup is that they didn't shoot to the moon like almost no one was predicting.
Pretty boring, but I think good news. Houses are slowly becoming more affordable, and at a rate that is apparently not causing widespread financial issues.
Looks like one of those 'soft landings' everyone was talking about a year or two ago.
The wait is indeed boring. How long will it take for the Specarati to acknowledge the bubble is in "tinsy winsy gully"...it's a crash mate.
Let's see what the global trade war and de globalization brings to the over leveraged. The orange swan has replaced the black one.
I'm loving life :D the banter however has been a tad lacking, and either way, you have paid to contribute to it so enjoy!
The average five year growth rates in the HPI report are particularly interesting this time, they take us back to March 2020 immediately before lockdowns and the start of monetary stimulus. Most of the country is still well up on March 2020 prices, at least nominally. But Auckland City is only ~6.5% higher, and Wellington City a mere 3.5% higher. That means pretty chunky falls in real terms.
Yes 23% accumulated inflation in the 5 year to Q4 2024.
Inflation calculator - Reserve Bank of New Zealand - Te Pūtea Matua
I see many properties now selling at around 2018 to 2019 prices, so they have all lost at least -23% in real terms. Among the worst of all investments, for the Specuvestors.
So much for all the property industry/collecting tosspots in the media, dribbling on about property being the greatest of all inflation hedges........NOT!!
Sometimes I wonder how much more value someone could bring into their life using the same sort of relentless motivation that's brought into these housing comments.
Then I realize the fact someone can't do that, is probably why they're here.
Can't speak for everyone but I don't agree with the assumption that everyone wishing for house price falls is a deadbeat loser who can't make progress in life. Plenty of us are doing fine personally and are concerned about the societal impacts of unaffordable housing as much as we are about our personal financial interests.
Can't speak for everyone but I don't agree with the assumption that everyone wishing for house price falls is a deadbeat loser who can't make progress in life
I'm not talking about everyone. Clearly, housing affordability is a concern held wildly.
But the same posts, daily, weekly, yearly, isn't accomplishing much.
In other words, your mind likes wondering into making big assumptions based on limited data.
Pretty big sample at this point.
You seem triggered by the data being discussed, so you’d like to assume those discussing it are unsuccessful in life.
Feel free to share the big sample of data that backs up your narrative.
I don't have a problem talking about it. House pricing is fairly clearly tied to overall economic health, the movements themselves don't really tell us whether there's any protracted improvement in affordability (or lack thereof).
I guess I just draw a distinction between people talking about it as well as a wide range of other subjects, and those who are myopically fixated on it.
It is just greatest time for NZ, to have year, upon year, upon year, of many cheaper housing options!!
I have my own house and doing just fine, happily live the NZ dream, thank you.
- Why landlords want to stop this dream for others, is abhorrent.
For the garden variety, greedy Landlord to want to own forever slaves to rent his forever increasing rental houses is just terrible. The Ashley Churchless/Oneroof demons, model is broken, irreparably, to the benefit of NZs youngest FHBs.
Very Glad, the buy to rent model is now broken, economically numbers speaking, since 2021. Good for NZ.
It is just greatest time for NZ, to have year, upon year, upon year, of many cheaper housing options!!
And less jobs
And rising costs everywhere
And now a worse outlook again
So kinda like I felt when I first came on here and people were rejoicing, it's all so bittersweet, because nothing's been resolved or changed.
The Ashley Churchless/Oneroof demons, model is broken, irreparably, to the benefit of NZs youngest FHBs.
Assuming the rest of the economy stays so sick, you will get your wish.
The rest of us are not all sick. The productive are doing OK from what I can see. The debt do nothing farmers are struggling.
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