Unemployment
Activity in the service sector has dropped sharply again in June to once again be at the lowest level in 17 years apart from during lockdowns
15th Jul 24, 11:43am
77
Activity in the service sector has dropped sharply again in June to once again be at the lowest level in 17 years apart from during lockdowns
Kiwibank economists say they would recommend cutting the Official Cash Rate in August
8th Jul 24, 1:45pm
23
Kiwibank economists say they would recommend cutting the Official Cash Rate in August
The Reserve Bank's likely to cheerfully ignore the growing clamour for some public indication of when the Official Cash Rate will be cut when it has its next review of the OCR in the coming week
7th Jul 24, 6:30am
100
The Reserve Bank's likely to cheerfully ignore the growing clamour for some public indication of when the Official Cash Rate will be cut when it has its next review of the OCR in the coming week
With the economy in a tailspin and the RBNZ stubbornly holding the OCR, Gareth Vaughan takes a look at the non-tradable inflation dilemma
6th Jul 24, 9:10am
38
With the economy in a tailspin and the RBNZ stubbornly holding the OCR, Gareth Vaughan takes a look at the non-tradable inflation dilemma
BNZ economists say they hope the Reserve Bank will 'eventually accept' there are a number of relative price increases such as insurance and rates that can be 'looked through'
2nd Jul 24, 10:55am
28
BNZ economists say they hope the Reserve Bank will 'eventually accept' there are a number of relative price increases such as insurance and rates that can be 'looked through'
Most businesses saw less trading activity in the past three months and expect conditions to worsen in the coming quarter, according to NZIER’s June survey
2nd Jul 24, 10:43am
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Most businesses saw less trading activity in the past three months and expect conditions to worsen in the coming quarter, according to NZIER’s June survey
Cheaper mortgages, tamed inflation and even higher home prices: how 29 forecasters see Australia’s economic recovery in 2024-25
1st Jul 24, 11:00am
2
Cheaper mortgages, tamed inflation and even higher home prices: how 29 forecasters see Australia’s economic recovery in 2024-25
David Hargreaves says it looks too late to 'save' this year, but if we can beat inflation, then the RBNZ will call off the dogs and the prospects for next year will be for a gradual recovery. If we can beat inflation...
30th Jun 24, 7:00am
155
David Hargreaves says it looks too late to 'save' this year, but if we can beat inflation, then the RBNZ will call off the dogs and the prospects for next year will be for a gradual recovery. If we can beat inflation...
Westpac McDermott Miller Employment Confidence Survey shows a marked fall in the latest three months
25th Jun 24, 10:23am
31
Westpac McDermott Miller Employment Confidence Survey shows a marked fall in the latest three months
David Hargreaves sums up the first (nearly) six months of the year and thinks it would be a very good idea to stop it and start again. Unfortunately though, we will have to carry on. Here's what's transpired so far...
23rd Jun 24, 7:00am
168
David Hargreaves sums up the first (nearly) six months of the year and thinks it would be a very good idea to stop it and start again. Unfortunately though, we will have to carry on. Here's what's transpired so far...
New Zealand’s inflation was more driven by product and labour shortages than other countries were, RBNZ says
20th Jun 24, 8:30am
18
New Zealand’s inflation was more driven by product and labour shortages than other countries were, RBNZ says
[updated]
RBNZ chief economist Paul Conway says the country is in a 'slow-to-no-to-negative' growth environment, but the outlook is slightly more positive for the future and the outlook is also for continued declines in inflation
19th Jun 24, 9:49am
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RBNZ chief economist Paul Conway says the country is in a 'slow-to-no-to-negative' growth environment, but the outlook is slightly more positive for the future and the outlook is also for continued declines in inflation
Long-running survey records the worst ever non-Covid-affected level of activity for the services sector; 'This tells of a services sector in reverse at pace'
17th Jun 24, 12:11pm
93
Long-running survey records the worst ever non-Covid-affected level of activity for the services sector; 'This tells of a services sector in reverse at pace'
It's a line ball call whether GDP figures out in the coming week will reveal the country still to be in recession or not. But whatever the outcome, economists don't see a particularly rosy path for the economy in the immediate future
16th Jun 24, 6:30am
85
It's a line ball call whether GDP figures out in the coming week will reveal the country still to be in recession or not. But whatever the outcome, economists don't see a particularly rosy path for the economy in the immediate future
[updated]
ANZ economists say 'meaningful progress' in inflation war around the corner, meaning the OCR could be cut earlier than they previously forecast
7th Jun 24, 11:17am
85
ANZ economists say 'meaningful progress' in inflation war around the corner, meaning the OCR could be cut earlier than they previously forecast
[updated]
RBNZ leaves Official Cash Rate at 5.5%, but says domestic inflation is slow to fall and now puts a 60% chance of a further OCR hike by the end of this year; now doesn't see inflation getting back under 3% till the fourth quarter of the year
22nd May 24, 2:20pm
280
RBNZ leaves Official Cash Rate at 5.5%, but says domestic inflation is slow to fall and now puts a 60% chance of a further OCR hike by the end of this year; now doesn't see inflation getting back under 3% till the fourth quarter of the year
Influential RBNZ survey shows another decisive drop in the expectation of future levels of inflation in a result that will give the RBNZ comfort ahead of its Official Cash Rate decision next week
13th May 24, 3:41pm
21
Influential RBNZ survey shows another decisive drop in the expectation of future levels of inflation in a result that will give the RBNZ comfort ahead of its Official Cash Rate decision next week
Softer labour market data won’t be enough to make the RBNZ cut the OCR before late 2024 or 2025, bank economists say
1st May 24, 3:56pm
7
Softer labour market data won’t be enough to make the RBNZ cut the OCR before late 2024 or 2025, bank economists say
Unemployment rate climbed to 4.3% in the March quarter from 4%, just exceeding the Reserve Bank’s expectations
1st May 24, 10:56am
81
Unemployment rate climbed to 4.3% in the March quarter from 4%, just exceeding the Reserve Bank’s expectations
Bank economists anticipate the unemployment rate will edge up when Statistics NZ releases March quarter labour market data
28th Apr 24, 6:01am
49
Bank economists anticipate the unemployment rate will edge up when Statistics NZ releases March quarter labour market data
Patrick Watson reckons the potential for mass unemployment is lower than it used to be, so wonders if the US can have a recession if unemployment can’t rise
20th Apr 24, 9:12am
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Patrick Watson reckons the potential for mass unemployment is lower than it used to be, so wonders if the US can have a recession if unemployment can’t rise
Government aiming to reduce Jobseeker numbers by 50,000 over the next six years
9th Apr 24, 7:14am
58
Government aiming to reduce Jobseeker numbers by 50,000 over the next six years
ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence survey shows a sharp fall with sentiment 'likely affected by recession headlines'
28th Mar 24, 10:46am
23
ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence survey shows a sharp fall with sentiment 'likely affected by recession headlines'
David Hargreaves suggests it's time we looked purely at the number of migrant arrivals - rather than 'netting off' the figures against departures
27th Mar 24, 7:41am
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David Hargreaves suggests it's time we looked purely at the number of migrant arrivals - rather than 'netting off' the figures against departures
GDP figures out in the coming week might be, in the words of one economist, 'as flat as a pancake', - but this of course is in a country that grew its population by 2.8% last year, meaning many more hands are producing only exactly the same outcome
17th Mar 24, 6:01am
59
GDP figures out in the coming week might be, in the words of one economist, 'as flat as a pancake', - but this of course is in a country that grew its population by 2.8% last year, meaning many more hands are producing only exactly the same outcome