The number of filled jobs in New Zealand rose by over 2600 on a seasonally adjusted basis in December -marking the second consecutive rise after a sequence of seven monthly falls earlier in 2024, according to the latest figures from Statistics NZ.
According to Stats NZ's Monthly Employment Indicators (MEI) there are were over 27,000 fewer jobs in NZ at the end of 2024 than there were at the beginning of it.
But nevertheless, another monthly gain in filled job numbers may indicate that the rate of unemployment is close to peaking.
The official unemployment figures for the December quarter as measured by Stats NZ's Household Labour Force Survey are due to be released next week on February 5. And these are expected to show another rise from 4.8% to maybe 5.0%. The Reserve Bank sees unemployment peaking at 5.2% in the March 2025 quarter before slowly starting to fall again.
The MEI figures are not directly comparable as they are sourced quite differently - coming from Inland Revenue data - but they have tended to be quite a good indicator of future trends.
The seasonally adjusted filled jobs rise equated to a 0.1% increase and it followed a 0.2% increase in November. It's well worth noting that the November gain was revised down from an initially reported 0.3% gain. Indeed this has been something of a trend with this data series - that figures are revised down. So, a gain of just 0.1% in December may well disappear after revisions.
Still, the trend's clearly improving after the sequence of seven consecutive monthly falls from April to October 2024, with over half of those falls being 0.3% or 0.4% in magnitude.
Looking at the December detail, Stats NZ said the seasonally adjusted changes were:
- all industries – up 0.1% (2,615 jobs) to 2.36 million filled jobs
- primary industries – up 0.2% (182 jobs)
- goods-producing industries – down 0.1% (452 jobs)
- service industries – up 0.2% (4,439 jobs).
In terms of the actual figures comparing the situation in December 2024 with December 2023, Stats NZ said filled jobs were 2.39 million, down 27,997 (1.2%).
By industry, the largest changes in the number of filled jobs compared with December 2023 were in:
- construction – down 6.1% (12,745 jobs)
- health care and social assistance – up 2.8% (7,590 jobs)
- administrative and support services – down 6.8% (7,068 jobs)
- manufacturing – down 2.5% (5,978 jobs)
- professional, scientific, and technical services – down 2.2% (4,151 jobs).
By region, the largest changes in the number of filled jobs compared with December 2023 were in:
- Auckland – down 1.7% (14,026 jobs)
- Wellington – down 1.8% (4,784 jobs)
- Manawatū-Whanganui – down 1.5% (1,788 jobs)
- Waikato – down 0.6% (1,385 jobs)
- Hawke’s Bay – down 1.4% (1,221 jobs).
In December 2024 compared with December 2023, the number of filled jobs for men fell by 1.7% (21,113 jobs) and by 1.0% (11,991 jobs) for women.
By age group, the largest changes in the number of filled jobs compared with December 2023 were in:
- 15–19 years – down 9.2% (14,063 jobs)
- 25–29 years – down 4.4% (11,556 jobs)
- 35–39 years – up 2.7% (7,432 jobs)
- 30–34 years – down 2.2% (6,469 jobs)
- 20–24 years – down 2.5% (5,864 jobs).
11 Comments
Economy might be on the mend. Let's hope that doesn't create inflation.
Not a good day of articles for DGMs today on interest.co.nz, I guess we'll get a few articles for them tomorrow...
Toye will be commenting soon to spin this into bad news!
Can't get unemployment up too much if everybody is leaving
more people were employed, not less people filled jobs. Net migration was +30000.
You would see a decrease in filled jobs if it was due to people leaving, or less jobs advertised.
I am worried what we see is a brain drain, I hope I am wrong.
But if that is the case, the ones who left, used to pay more in tax then the ones who just arrived.
I struggle to see this is the bottom for the construction industry. Possibly other industries are on the rise but construction lay offs are rife at the moment. All the FB pages are littered with people laid off and seeking immediate employment.
Look at all the women returning to work after children - need to pull in some extra earnings to pay the mortgage!
Now, before you flame me as misogynist, look at the age group that gained, and the gender that fell less.
I'll also add I know women for whom this was exactly the case during the year. Mid-30s, forced back to work earlier than planned for financial reasons.
Let's hope those 2,600 are a pay rates higher than ones lost, ay?
- 25–29 years – down 4.4% (11,556 jobs)
Best and brightest - hope the bags packed and tickets purchased - nothing here for you if you want to get ahead and perhaps even have kids someday.
✈️ ✅
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