Recession
With the first quarter of the year nearly gone, and with GDP having returned to growth, David Hargreaves has a quick check on the economy's pulse
26th Mar 25, 1:08pm
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With the first quarter of the year nearly gone, and with GDP having returned to growth, David Hargreaves has a quick check on the economy's pulse
Economists don't see the upside surprise to the latest quarterly GDP figures as derailing likely Official Cash Rate cuts in each of the next two RBNZ reviews - but beyond that there's question marks over what comes next
24th Mar 25, 2:42pm
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Economists don't see the upside surprise to the latest quarterly GDP figures as derailing likely Official Cash Rate cuts in each of the next two RBNZ reviews - but beyond that there's question marks over what comes next
After plunging in the previous two quarters, GDP grew a better-than expected 0.7% in the December quarter; figures 'a genuine upside surprise'
20th Mar 25, 10:57am
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After plunging in the previous two quarters, GDP grew a better-than expected 0.7% in the December quarter; figures 'a genuine upside surprise'
Patrick Watson of Mauldin Economics says talk of a US recession is now everywhere having seemed unlikely three months ago
19th Mar 25, 9:59am
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Patrick Watson of Mauldin Economics says talk of a US recession is now everywhere having seemed unlikely three months ago
NZIER's latest consensus of economic forecasts shows that while economic growth is expected to rise above 2% by this time next year, economists see GDP only growing 2.6% by the March 2028 year
17th Mar 25, 2:18pm
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NZIER's latest consensus of economic forecasts shows that while economic growth is expected to rise above 2% by this time next year, economists see GDP only growing 2.6% by the March 2028 year
After plunging in the previous two quarters, GDP likely returned to positive growth for the December quarter, but the growth's looking pretty subdued so far
16th Mar 25, 6:30am
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After plunging in the previous two quarters, GDP likely returned to positive growth for the December quarter, but the growth's looking pretty subdued so far
Stats NZ figures show that manufacturing and wholesale sale figures flipped into positive territory in the December quarter after both going backwards in the September quarter; meat and dairy were strong contributors
11th Mar 25, 11:50am
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Stats NZ figures show that manufacturing and wholesale sale figures flipped into positive territory in the December quarter after both going backwards in the September quarter; meat and dairy were strong contributors
The Reserve Bank is clearing the way for further interest rate falls, which should spark the economy again. But when and how quickly? David Hargreaves has a look at how things are tracking
2nd Mar 25, 6:30am
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The Reserve Bank is clearing the way for further interest rate falls, which should spark the economy again. But when and how quickly? David Hargreaves has a look at how things are tracking
No improvement for Spark in latest financials, as recession takes big bites out of earnings and profit
21st Feb 25, 10:31am
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No improvement for Spark in latest financials, as recession takes big bites out of earnings and profit
[updated]
Reserve Bank cuts OCR to 3.75% and indicates room for more cuts than earlier forecast this year; economists say 'we are all on the same page now'
19th Feb 25, 2:14pm
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Reserve Bank cuts OCR to 3.75% and indicates room for more cuts than earlier forecast this year; economists say 'we are all on the same page now'
[updated]
Weak NZ economy and more proactive and prescriptive approach to loan arrears leads to almost $50m impairment for Heartland, shares tank
18th Feb 25, 10:14am
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Weak NZ economy and more proactive and prescriptive approach to loan arrears leads to almost $50m impairment for Heartland, shares tank
Members of the 'Shadow Board' the NZIER assembles to state views on the Official Cash Rate strongly agree the OCR will be cut 50 basis points this week - but there's a diversity of views on what should come next
17th Feb 25, 11:47am
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Members of the 'Shadow Board' the NZIER assembles to state views on the Official Cash Rate strongly agree the OCR will be cut 50 basis points this week - but there's a diversity of views on what should come next
The services sector expanded slightly in January, as did the manufacturing sector - results that point toward an economic recovery later in the year
17th Feb 25, 11:04am
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The services sector expanded slightly in January, as did the manufacturing sector - results that point toward an economic recovery later in the year
A 50-point cut to the Official Cash Rate is a near certainty in the coming week, so attention will quickly turn to whatever signals the Reserve Bank may give about further cuts
16th Feb 25, 6:30am
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A 50-point cut to the Official Cash Rate is a near certainty in the coming week, so attention will quickly turn to whatever signals the Reserve Bank may give about further cuts
[updated]
The Reserve Bank will have to deliver more interest rate cuts than it has signalled this year, or the risk of further job losses will only grow, Kiwibank economists say
10th Feb 25, 1:35pm
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The Reserve Bank will have to deliver more interest rate cuts than it has signalled this year, or the risk of further job losses will only grow, Kiwibank economists say
RBNZ chief economist Paul Conway sees dominance of the 'traditional drivers of growth' in the New Zealand economy coming to an end
30th Jan 25, 10:01am
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RBNZ chief economist Paul Conway sees dominance of the 'traditional drivers of growth' in the New Zealand economy coming to an end
RBNZ chief economist Paul Conway says the central bank will have to 'feel its way' as the OCR gets closer to its estimate of neutral and he doesn't see a return to 'ultra-low' rates seen during the early stages of the pandemic any time soon
29th Jan 25, 12:26pm
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RBNZ chief economist Paul Conway says the central bank will have to 'feel its way' as the OCR gets closer to its estimate of neutral and he doesn't see a return to 'ultra-low' rates seen during the early stages of the pandemic any time soon
Another monthly rise in the number of filled jobs in December may indicate that New Zealand's rate of unemployment is close to peaking
28th Jan 25, 11:27am
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Another monthly rise in the number of filled jobs in December may indicate that New Zealand's rate of unemployment is close to peaking
HSBC economists expect the Official Cash Rate to be down to 3% by the third quarter of this year and see the economy growing 1.8% in 2025 and 2.5% next year
28th Jan 25, 10:25am
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HSBC economists expect the Official Cash Rate to be down to 3% by the third quarter of this year and see the economy growing 1.8% in 2025 and 2.5% next year
[updated]
Activity in NZ's services sector contracted further in December, matching a more contractionary performance in the month from the manufacturing sector as well
21st Jan 25, 10:47am
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Activity in NZ's services sector contracted further in December, matching a more contractionary performance in the month from the manufacturing sector as well
Economists see latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion as clearing the way for a further substantial cut to the Official Cash Rate next month
15th Jan 25, 9:34am
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Economists see latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion as clearing the way for a further substantial cut to the Official Cash Rate next month
Latest Stats NZ figures show filled jobs rose by nearly 6,000 in November - the first monthly rise since March 2024
13th Jan 25, 11:32am
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Latest Stats NZ figures show filled jobs rose by nearly 6,000 in November - the first monthly rise since March 2024
Revised economic data shows New Zealand only entered recession in March 2024
19th Dec 24, 10:56am
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Revised economic data shows New Zealand only entered recession in March 2024
NZIER's latest quarterly consensus forecasts see higher household spending on the back of interest rate falls, but GDP growth forecasts are virtually unchanged from the previous quarter
17th Dec 24, 12:01pm
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NZIER's latest quarterly consensus forecasts see higher household spending on the back of interest rate falls, but GDP growth forecasts are virtually unchanged from the previous quarter
Activity in NZ's services sector has improved, but still remains at contractionary levels, while manufacturing has moved further into contraction
16th Dec 24, 10:49am
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Activity in NZ's services sector has improved, but still remains at contractionary levels, while manufacturing has moved further into contraction