Recession
David Hargreaves says it looks too late to 'save' this year, but if we can beat inflation, then the RBNZ will call off the dogs and the prospects for next year will be for a gradual recovery. If we can beat inflation...
30th Jun 24, 7:00am
138
David Hargreaves says it looks too late to 'save' this year, but if we can beat inflation, then the RBNZ will call off the dogs and the prospects for next year will be for a gradual recovery. If we can beat inflation...
David Hargreaves sums up the first (nearly) six months of the year and thinks it would be a very good idea to stop it and start again. Unfortunately though, we will have to carry on. Here's what's transpired so far...
23rd Jun 24, 7:00am
168
David Hargreaves sums up the first (nearly) six months of the year and thinks it would be a very good idea to stop it and start again. Unfortunately though, we will have to carry on. Here's what's transpired so far...
[updated]
RBNZ chief economist Paul Conway says the country is in a 'slow-to-no-to-negative' growth environment, but the outlook is slightly more positive for the future and the outlook is also for continued declines in inflation
19th Jun 24, 9:49am
130
RBNZ chief economist Paul Conway says the country is in a 'slow-to-no-to-negative' growth environment, but the outlook is slightly more positive for the future and the outlook is also for continued declines in inflation
Long-running survey records the worst ever non-Covid-affected level of activity for the services sector; 'This tells of a services sector in reverse at pace'
17th Jun 24, 12:11pm
93
Long-running survey records the worst ever non-Covid-affected level of activity for the services sector; 'This tells of a services sector in reverse at pace'
It's a line ball call whether GDP figures out in the coming week will reveal the country still to be in recession or not. But whatever the outcome, economists don't see a particularly rosy path for the economy in the immediate future
16th Jun 24, 6:30am
85
It's a line ball call whether GDP figures out in the coming week will reveal the country still to be in recession or not. But whatever the outcome, economists don't see a particularly rosy path for the economy in the immediate future
Latest spending data from the country's biggest bank highlights the extent to which Kiwis have put their wallets away as rising costs and higher interest rates have taken their toll
11th Jun 24, 11:36am
15
Latest spending data from the country's biggest bank highlights the extent to which Kiwis have put their wallets away as rising costs and higher interest rates have taken their toll
Headline inflation should still hit the target band this year as the RBNZ has brought balance back to most parts of the economy, chief economist Paul Conway says
26th May 24, 6:00am
73
Headline inflation should still hit the target band this year as the RBNZ has brought balance back to most parts of the economy, chief economist Paul Conway says
[updated]
Stats NZ figures show that seasonally adjusted retail sales by volume increased by 0.5% in the March quarter, but the figures were down 2.4% on the volumes recorded for the same quarter in 2023
23rd May 24, 12:16pm
10
Stats NZ figures show that seasonally adjusted retail sales by volume increased by 0.5% in the March quarter, but the figures were down 2.4% on the volumes recorded for the same quarter in 2023
[updated]
RBNZ leaves Official Cash Rate at 5.5%, but says domestic inflation is slow to fall and now puts a 60% chance of a further OCR hike by the end of this year; now doesn't see inflation getting back under 3% till the fourth quarter of the year
22nd May 24, 2:20pm
280
RBNZ leaves Official Cash Rate at 5.5%, but says domestic inflation is slow to fall and now puts a 60% chance of a further OCR hike by the end of this year; now doesn't see inflation getting back under 3% till the fourth quarter of the year
Brian Easton wonders whether the economy is in another long stagnation - and if so, why?
7th May 24, 10:35am
9
Brian Easton wonders whether the economy is in another long stagnation - and if so, why?
Does fighting inflation always lead to recession? What 60 years of NZ data can tell us
27th Apr 24, 9:16am
15
Does fighting inflation always lead to recession? What 60 years of NZ data can tell us
Job portal Seek says the number of job ads was down 0.4% in March across NZ, but a much steeper 27% since March 2023
22nd Apr 24, 4:41pm
37
Job portal Seek says the number of job ads was down 0.4% in March across NZ, but a much steeper 27% since March 2023
Patrick Watson reckons the potential for mass unemployment is lower than it used to be, so wonders if the US can have a recession if unemployment can’t rise
20th Apr 24, 9:12am
37
Patrick Watson reckons the potential for mass unemployment is lower than it used to be, so wonders if the US can have a recession if unemployment can’t rise
The Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee adds the word ‘confident’ to its inflation forecast, even as hot CPI release looms
11th Apr 24, 7:39am
39
The Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee adds the word ‘confident’ to its inflation forecast, even as hot CPI release looms
Squirrel's David Cunningham argues the Reserve Bank should start cutting interest rates on April 10
31st Mar 24, 8:00am
188
Squirrel's David Cunningham argues the Reserve Bank should start cutting interest rates on April 10
Independent economist Brian Easton wonders if Nicola Willis is hinting that the Coalition Government will have to back down on key promises it made in Opposition
25th Mar 24, 8:31am
30
Independent economist Brian Easton wonders if Nicola Willis is hinting that the Coalition Government will have to back down on key promises it made in Opposition
NZ is in recession – so far there are few signs the government has a plan to stimulate and grow the economy
22nd Mar 24, 1:27pm
46
NZ is in recession – so far there are few signs the government has a plan to stimulate and grow the economy
GDP figures out in the coming week might be, in the words of one economist, 'as flat as a pancake', - but this of course is in a country that grew its population by 2.8% last year, meaning many more hands are producing only exactly the same outcome
17th Mar 24, 6:01am
59
GDP figures out in the coming week might be, in the words of one economist, 'as flat as a pancake', - but this of course is in a country that grew its population by 2.8% last year, meaning many more hands are producing only exactly the same outcome
Kiwibank economists say central banks will ultimately need to have looser inflation targets in a 'world of rapidly rising, climate-related, costs
13th Mar 24, 9:34am
46
Kiwibank economists say central banks will ultimately need to have looser inflation targets in a 'world of rapidly rising, climate-related, costs
Kiwibank economists say that after some 'ferocious barking' and 'a lot of huffing and puffing' about potential interest rate hikes, the RBNZ has 'stripped off their wolf skin'
4th Mar 24, 11:41am
23
Kiwibank economists say that after some 'ferocious barking' and 'a lot of huffing and puffing' about potential interest rate hikes, the RBNZ has 'stripped off their wolf skin'
Reserve Bank leaves Official Cash Rate unchanged at 5.5% and says risks to the inflation outlook are now 'more balanced' but there is a limit to its ability to 'tolerate upside inflation surprises'
28th Feb 24, 2:13pm
104
Reserve Bank leaves Official Cash Rate unchanged at 5.5% and says risks to the inflation outlook are now 'more balanced' but there is a limit to its ability to 'tolerate upside inflation surprises'
The Reserve Bank finds itself stuck in the middle of still-high inflation and an economy that is buckling under far more quickly than had been believed
14th Dec 23, 2:38pm
81
The Reserve Bank finds itself stuck in the middle of still-high inflation and an economy that is buckling under far more quickly than had been believed
David Hargreaves has a look at the forthcoming GDP figures - the last major economic data release for the year. As far as GDP goes - resilience is the word
10th Dec 23, 6:00am
39
David Hargreaves has a look at the forthcoming GDP figures - the last major economic data release for the year. As far as GDP goes - resilience is the word
In the second part of his preview of 2024, David Hargreaves examines whether a combination of new Government policies, rampant migration and an enlivened housing market could undermine efforts to get the economy on a sound footing
3rd Dec 23, 8:00am
85
In the second part of his preview of 2024, David Hargreaves examines whether a combination of new Government policies, rampant migration and an enlivened housing market could undermine efforts to get the economy on a sound footing
David Hargreaves explains what he is looking for in the economy in 2024 as we wait to see if the battle against inflation really can be won
2nd Dec 23, 10:23am
17
David Hargreaves explains what he is looking for in the economy in 2024 as we wait to see if the battle against inflation really can be won