Unemployment
David Hargreaves says it looks too late to 'save' this year, but if we can beat inflation, then the RBNZ will call off the dogs and the prospects for next year will be for a gradual recovery. If we can beat inflation...
30th Jun 24, 7:00am
137
David Hargreaves says it looks too late to 'save' this year, but if we can beat inflation, then the RBNZ will call off the dogs and the prospects for next year will be for a gradual recovery. If we can beat inflation...
Westpac McDermott Miller Employment Confidence Survey shows a marked fall in the latest three months
25th Jun 24, 10:23am
31
Westpac McDermott Miller Employment Confidence Survey shows a marked fall in the latest three months
David Hargreaves sums up the first (nearly) six months of the year and thinks it would be a very good idea to stop it and start again. Unfortunately though, we will have to carry on. Here's what's transpired so far...
23rd Jun 24, 7:00am
168
David Hargreaves sums up the first (nearly) six months of the year and thinks it would be a very good idea to stop it and start again. Unfortunately though, we will have to carry on. Here's what's transpired so far...
New Zealand’s inflation was more driven by product and labour shortages than other countries were, RBNZ says
20th Jun 24, 8:30am
18
New Zealand’s inflation was more driven by product and labour shortages than other countries were, RBNZ says
[updated]
RBNZ chief economist Paul Conway says the country is in a 'slow-to-no-to-negative' growth environment, but the outlook is slightly more positive for the future and the outlook is also for continued declines in inflation
19th Jun 24, 9:49am
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RBNZ chief economist Paul Conway says the country is in a 'slow-to-no-to-negative' growth environment, but the outlook is slightly more positive for the future and the outlook is also for continued declines in inflation
Long-running survey records the worst ever non-Covid-affected level of activity for the services sector; 'This tells of a services sector in reverse at pace'
17th Jun 24, 12:11pm
93
Long-running survey records the worst ever non-Covid-affected level of activity for the services sector; 'This tells of a services sector in reverse at pace'
It's a line ball call whether GDP figures out in the coming week will reveal the country still to be in recession or not. But whatever the outcome, economists don't see a particularly rosy path for the economy in the immediate future
16th Jun 24, 6:30am
85
It's a line ball call whether GDP figures out in the coming week will reveal the country still to be in recession or not. But whatever the outcome, economists don't see a particularly rosy path for the economy in the immediate future
[updated]
ANZ economists say 'meaningful progress' in inflation war around the corner, meaning the OCR could be cut earlier than they previously forecast
7th Jun 24, 11:17am
85
ANZ economists say 'meaningful progress' in inflation war around the corner, meaning the OCR could be cut earlier than they previously forecast
[updated]
RBNZ leaves Official Cash Rate at 5.5%, but says domestic inflation is slow to fall and now puts a 60% chance of a further OCR hike by the end of this year; now doesn't see inflation getting back under 3% till the fourth quarter of the year
22nd May 24, 2:20pm
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RBNZ leaves Official Cash Rate at 5.5%, but says domestic inflation is slow to fall and now puts a 60% chance of a further OCR hike by the end of this year; now doesn't see inflation getting back under 3% till the fourth quarter of the year
Influential RBNZ survey shows another decisive drop in the expectation of future levels of inflation in a result that will give the RBNZ comfort ahead of its Official Cash Rate decision next week
13th May 24, 3:41pm
21
Influential RBNZ survey shows another decisive drop in the expectation of future levels of inflation in a result that will give the RBNZ comfort ahead of its Official Cash Rate decision next week
Softer labour market data won’t be enough to make the RBNZ cut the OCR before late 2024 or 2025, bank economists say
1st May 24, 3:56pm
7
Softer labour market data won’t be enough to make the RBNZ cut the OCR before late 2024 or 2025, bank economists say
Unemployment rate climbed to 4.3% in the March quarter from 4%, just exceeding the Reserve Bank’s expectations
1st May 24, 10:56am
81
Unemployment rate climbed to 4.3% in the March quarter from 4%, just exceeding the Reserve Bank’s expectations
Bank economists anticipate the unemployment rate will edge up when Statistics NZ releases March quarter labour market data
28th Apr 24, 6:01am
49
Bank economists anticipate the unemployment rate will edge up when Statistics NZ releases March quarter labour market data
Patrick Watson reckons the potential for mass unemployment is lower than it used to be, so wonders if the US can have a recession if unemployment can’t rise
20th Apr 24, 9:12am
37
Patrick Watson reckons the potential for mass unemployment is lower than it used to be, so wonders if the US can have a recession if unemployment can’t rise
Government aiming to reduce Jobseeker numbers by 50,000 over the next six years
9th Apr 24, 7:14am
58
Government aiming to reduce Jobseeker numbers by 50,000 over the next six years
ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence survey shows a sharp fall with sentiment 'likely affected by recession headlines'
28th Mar 24, 10:46am
23
ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence survey shows a sharp fall with sentiment 'likely affected by recession headlines'
David Hargreaves suggests it's time we looked purely at the number of migrant arrivals - rather than 'netting off' the figures against departures
27th Mar 24, 7:41am
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David Hargreaves suggests it's time we looked purely at the number of migrant arrivals - rather than 'netting off' the figures against departures
GDP figures out in the coming week might be, in the words of one economist, 'as flat as a pancake', - but this of course is in a country that grew its population by 2.8% last year, meaning many more hands are producing only exactly the same outcome
17th Mar 24, 6:01am
59
GDP figures out in the coming week might be, in the words of one economist, 'as flat as a pancake', - but this of course is in a country that grew its population by 2.8% last year, meaning many more hands are producing only exactly the same outcome
Kiwibank economists say central banks will ultimately need to have looser inflation targets in a 'world of rapidly rising, climate-related, costs
13th Mar 24, 9:34am
46
Kiwibank economists say central banks will ultimately need to have looser inflation targets in a 'world of rapidly rising, climate-related, costs
Kiwibank economists say that after some 'ferocious barking' and 'a lot of huffing and puffing' about potential interest rate hikes, the RBNZ has 'stripped off their wolf skin'
4th Mar 24, 11:41am
23
Kiwibank economists say that after some 'ferocious barking' and 'a lot of huffing and puffing' about potential interest rate hikes, the RBNZ has 'stripped off their wolf skin'
Reserve Bank leaves Official Cash Rate unchanged at 5.5% and says risks to the inflation outlook are now 'more balanced' but there is a limit to its ability to 'tolerate upside inflation surprises'
28th Feb 24, 2:13pm
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Reserve Bank leaves Official Cash Rate unchanged at 5.5% and says risks to the inflation outlook are now 'more balanced' but there is a limit to its ability to 'tolerate upside inflation surprises'
The National-led government has been left with a right royal migration mess to clean up. But what happens after the immediate salvage job?
21st Feb 24, 3:49pm
65
The National-led government has been left with a right royal migration mess to clean up. But what happens after the immediate salvage job?
[updated]
Influential RBNZ survey shows a decisive drop in the expectation of future levels of inflation in a result that will give the RBNZ comfort ahead of its next Official Cash Rate decision
13th Feb 24, 3:35pm
20
Influential RBNZ survey shows a decisive drop in the expectation of future levels of inflation in a result that will give the RBNZ comfort ahead of its next Official Cash Rate decision
[updated]
There are clear signs that the RBNZ’s 'heavy handed hikes' are inhibiting household demand, and hurting business, Kiwibank economists say
12th Feb 24, 12:22pm
36
There are clear signs that the RBNZ’s 'heavy handed hikes' are inhibiting household demand, and hurting business, Kiwibank economists say
Labour market remains resilient even as unemployment rate rises to 4% in the December quarter and other employment metrics also soften
7th Feb 24, 10:53am
63
Labour market remains resilient even as unemployment rate rises to 4% in the December quarter and other employment metrics also soften