US equities are on the back foot, just over 24 hours ahead of the Fed’s policy announcement. The S&P500 is currently down 0.3%. Bank of America’s latest Global Fund Manager survey provides a warning sign for equities, with the cash weighting falling to just 3.9% in December and the equities indicator surging to a record high of a net 36% overweight, triggering a “sell” signal.
The US 10-year Treasury yield pushed up to as high as 4.44% ahead of the US retail sales release. The report wasn’t as strong as feared and the yield has since steadily fallen, currently 4.38%, down slightly on the day and relative to the NZ close. The 2-year rate has followed a similar path.
US retail sales were close to market expectations, with a 0.7% m/m increase in the headline index for November boosted by car purchases, likely supported by replacement vehicles post hurricanes. The ex-autos and gas measure rose a more modest 0.2% while the control group, which feeds into GDP figures, rose 0.4%. Even if the latter are flat in December, they’d be running at an annualised pace of 4% in the Q4, consistent with another quarter of strong consumer spending.
US industrial production fell 0.1% m/m and manufacturing production rose by just 0.2% with downside revisions, consistent with ongoing recession-like conditions in the sector, as suggested by PMI data.
Annual headline Canadian CPI inflation nudged down to 1.9% y/y in November, one-tenth below consensus, but core inflation was stronger than expected. The Bank of Canada’s preferred measure, averaging the median and trimmed mean estimates, was steady at 2.65% from the upwardly revised October figure, with the three-month annualised pace lifting to 3.3%. There was little reaction, with the market still seeing the Bank of Canada stepping down the pace of easing next year, with a 70% chance of a 25bps cut in late-January and little more than two full rate cuts priced for 2025.
More market reaction was evident following UK labour market data. UK wage inflation picked up in the three-months ending October, with the figure excluding bonuses lifting to a higher than expected 5.2% y/y, with private sector wages lifting from 4.9% to 5.4%. Adding in the likelihood that CPI inflation picked up in November, in data due tonight, the market pared the scope for the BoE to cut rates next year, with not much more than two full rate cuts now priced. UK gilt yields are up 8-10bps, led by the short end, against a backdrop of lower bond yields across Europe and the US.
The UK-Germany 10-year spread is at 229bps, the highest on a closing basis since German reunification in 1990, reflecting the differing easing paths for the ECB and the BoE – a more aggressive monetary policy easing cycle for the former than the latter. Germany’s IFO survey showed the business climate index falling to a 4½ year low of 84.7, underlying weak economic conditions, and with the expectations component at a 10-month low of 84.4.
In currency markets, GBP was one of the better performing currencies overnight, lifting back above 1.27, supported by the labour market data. EUR nudged back down to 1.05. EUR/GBP is trading above the low seen last week of 0.8225 but is probing a level not seen since early 2022.
Commodity currencies have underperformed. The CAD has fallen to a 4½ year low, with USD/CAD up through 1.43, in the aftermath of the resignation of Finance Minister Freeland, raising doubts over PM Trudeau’s future. The NZD fell to a fresh two-year low of 0.5752. The AUD fell to its lowest level in more than a year of 0.6332, performing slightly worse than the NZD overnight, with NZD/AUD nudging up to 0.9085. Pessimism around China’s outlook remains rife and a key driver of weaker Asia-Pacific currencies. The Asia Dollar index is also probing fresh two-year lows, even with the PBoC managing to contain the yuan.
The yen has been the best performing of the majors, with USD/JPY down 0.5% for the day to 153.30. NZD/JPY is down close to 1% at 88.3 while NZD/GBP is probing a fresh eight-year low below 0.4530.
The overnight GDT dairy auction was softer, as forewarned by the futures market, with the price index down 2.8%, breaking a run of stronger pricing. Both skim milk and whole milk powder fell 2.9%. Further falls would challenge a $10 milk price for the season. Yesterday the futures market closed at $9.95.
In domestic news yesterday, the government’s economic and fiscal update made for sobering reading, with a downgrading of the economic outlook resulting in a significant downgrading of the fiscal accounts. This is best summarised by the government needing to borrow an extra $20b over the next four years. Upwardly revised deficits are becoming a habit of the government, past and present, resulting in a steady upward trajectory of government debt levels.
The market was braced for some deterioration in the fiscal outlook, but the projected debt levels exceeded all estimates, driving up NZGB yields before reversing. The 2034 bond was up as much as 4bps to 4.49%, before closing up 1bp at 4.46%, with some modest curve steepening evident. NZGBs underperformed the swap market, with yields down 2-4bps across the swap curve. Reflecting excessive supply of bonds, swap spreads are at record wides, around minus 45bps for the 2034 bond, with 10-year swap at 4.01%.
In the day ahead, NZ consumer confidence and current account data are released this morning. UK CPI data will be released tonight, where the consensus expects a lift in annual inflation across the key measures. The Fed announcement is at 8am tomorrow morning.
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