OCR
David Hargreaves says we should see another decent-sized cut to the Official Cash Rate in the coming week, but beyond that, all eyes will be on how the Reserve Bank sees things developing next year
24th Nov 24, 6:00am
David Hargreaves says we should see another decent-sized cut to the Official Cash Rate in the coming week, but beyond that, all eyes will be on how the Reserve Bank sees things developing next year
US Treasuries continue to consolidate. There were mixed US second-tier data releases overnight. Ukraine-Russia war escalation continues. Market reaction was muted, although European currencies continue to struggle
22nd Nov 24, 7:49am
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US Treasuries continue to consolidate. There were mixed US second-tier data releases overnight. Ukraine-Russia war escalation continues. Market reaction was muted, although European currencies continue to struggle
US equities weaker, awaiting Nvidia's results. UST benchmark yields ignore rising Ukraine tensions
21st Nov 24, 7:40am
US equities weaker, awaiting Nvidia's results. UST benchmark yields ignore rising Ukraine tensions
Independent global economic researchers Capital Economics say despite their expectation the RBNZ will slash the OCR to just 2.25% in 2025 the housing market price recovery will be 'muted'
20th Nov 24, 8:45am
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Independent global economic researchers Capital Economics say despite their expectation the RBNZ will slash the OCR to just 2.25% in 2025 the housing market price recovery will be 'muted'
Risk-off & volatility were generated by geopolitical factors, but they quickly settled. US equities firmed, UST yields softened. Commodity currencies rose
20th Nov 24, 7:43am
Risk-off & volatility were generated by geopolitical factors, but they quickly settled. US equities firmed, UST yields softened. Commodity currencies rose
Latest quarterly Household Expectations Survey for RBNZ finds households reckon the inflation rate will be 4.1% in a year and they're getting progressively less optimistic about their chances of finding new jobs
19th Nov 24, 3:35pm
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Latest quarterly Household Expectations Survey for RBNZ finds households reckon the inflation rate will be 4.1% in a year and they're getting progressively less optimistic about their chances of finding new jobs
The USD is broadly weaker for a change, falling against most majors. The NZD hit a fresh 2024 low below 58.4 USc before recovering. US equities in modest recovery after last week’s retreats
19th Nov 24, 7:21am
The USD is broadly weaker for a change, falling against most majors. The NZD hit a fresh 2024 low below 58.4 USc before recovering. US equities in modest recovery after last week’s retreats
US stock indices ended last week under pressure. Comments from Powell that that there is no need to hurry to cut rates saw the odds of a 25bp rate cut in December fall. The yen rose on Japanese attention
18th Nov 24, 11:17am
US stock indices ended last week under pressure. Comments from Powell that that there is no need to hurry to cut rates saw the odds of a 25bp rate cut in December fall. The yen rose on Japanese attention
Trump trade reach exhaustion. US equities down modestly, and US Treasury yields fall, all despite stronger than expected US economic data
15th Nov 24, 7:41am
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Trump trade reach exhaustion. US equities down modestly, and US Treasury yields fall, all despite stronger than expected US economic data
US CPI data matched expectations contributing to a relief rally in short dated US treasuries. The chance of a 25bp rate cut at the December FOMC has increased to close to 80% according to market pricing
14th Nov 24, 7:43am
US CPI data matched expectations contributing to a relief rally in short dated US treasuries. The chance of a 25bp rate cut at the December FOMC has increased to close to 80% according to market pricing
The uptrend in the US dollar has extended supported by a sharp move higher in US treasury yields. Chinese stocks and the yuan remained under pressure amid concerns over the size of its fiscal stimulus
13th Nov 24, 7:45am
The uptrend in the US dollar has extended supported by a sharp move higher in US treasury yields. Chinese stocks and the yuan remained under pressure amid concerns over the size of its fiscal stimulus
Economists see the Reserve Bank being wary on inflation and taking a cautious approach to further interest rate cuts next year
12th Nov 24, 10:05am
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Economists see the Reserve Bank being wary on inflation and taking a cautious approach to further interest rate cuts next year
US equities remained well supported. The Russell 2000 index of small-cap firms hit the highest level since 2021. The US dollar extended its uptrend. UST futures pricing implies modestly higher yields
12th Nov 24, 7:39am
US equities remained well supported. The Russell 2000 index of small-cap firms hit the highest level since 2021. The US dollar extended its uptrend. UST futures pricing implies modestly higher yields
Influential RBNZ survey has perhaps surprisingly shown a small rise in the expectations of future inflation though most picks are still somewhere around the desired 2% level
11th Nov 24, 3:29pm
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Influential RBNZ survey has perhaps surprisingly shown a small rise in the expectations of future inflation though most picks are still somewhere around the desired 2% level
Westpac economists say the change in US administration reinforces their expectations that the RBNZ's approach to monetary policy easing over the New Year will be more cautious
11th Nov 24, 11:46am
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Westpac economists say the change in US administration reinforces their expectations that the RBNZ's approach to monetary policy easing over the New Year will be more cautious
US equity markets at new record highs as markets pared Fed rate cut expectations. The USD is broadly stronger. The NZD and AUD underperform as China’s policy package avoids stimulating consumer spending
11th Nov 24, 7:21am
US equity markets at new record highs as markets pared Fed rate cut expectations. The USD is broadly stronger. The NZD and AUD underperform as China’s policy package avoids stimulating consumer spending
Ahead of the Fed there has been some reversal of the Trump trade in currency and bond markets, while US equities have continued to power ahead. Another cut by the Fed is certain, key will be the tone of the press conference
8th Nov 24, 7:53am
Ahead of the Fed there has been some reversal of the Trump trade in currency and bond markets, while US equities have continued to power ahead. Another cut by the Fed is certain, key will be the tone of the press conference
In the wake of a decisive victory for Trump and the Republican party at the US elections, market movements have been significant. USD rises, UST rates jump
7th Nov 24, 7:46am
In the wake of a decisive victory for Trump and the Republican party at the US elections, market movements have been significant. USD rises, UST rates jump
Despite the uncertain US election outcome, market pricing consistent with “risk-on”, with stronger US equities, higher rates and a broadly weaker USD. RBA gives a reality check that inflation still too high to warrant easing
6th Nov 24, 7:42am
Despite the uncertain US election outcome, market pricing consistent with “risk-on”, with stronger US equities, higher rates and a broadly weaker USD. RBA gives a reality check that inflation still too high to warrant easing
Stats NZ says its household living-cost price indexes show household costs - including interest payments - rose 3.8% in the year to September
5th Nov 24, 11:41am
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Stats NZ says its household living-cost price indexes show household costs - including interest payments - rose 3.8% in the year to September
Trump trade reverses. The USD is broadly lower and US rates are lower across the curve led by the long end. Oil prices are up nearly 3% on OPEC+’s delay to increase supply and hawkish Iran talk
5th Nov 24, 7:45am
Trump trade reverses. The USD is broadly lower and US rates are lower across the curve led by the long end. Oil prices are up nearly 3% on OPEC+’s delay to increase supply and hawkish Iran talk
Weaker US labour market data whipsaws global rates and currency markets with recent weather events a contributing factor. The US dollar and treasury yields fell sharply - before reversing higher
4th Nov 24, 7:22am
Weaker US labour market data whipsaws global rates and currency markets with recent weather events a contributing factor. The US dollar and treasury yields fell sharply - before reversing higher
Labour market figures to be released in the coming week are expected to show sharply higher numbers of people out of work, but David Hargreaves says it would take a very substantial increase to surprise the Reserve Bank
3rd Nov 24, 7:00am
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Labour market figures to be released in the coming week are expected to show sharply higher numbers of people out of work, but David Hargreaves says it would take a very substantial increase to surprise the Reserve Bank
US equities end month on a weak note, on weaker forward guidance. The reaction to the UK Budget continues to reverberate, with higher UK rates, weaker GBP. The BoJ left the door open for a possible December rate hike
1st Nov 24, 7:50am
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US equities end month on a weak note, on weaker forward guidance. The reaction to the UK Budget continues to reverberate, with higher UK rates, weaker GBP. The BoJ left the door open for a possible December rate hike
The US economy expanded underpinned by strong consumer spending. UK gilts were volatile as UK chancellor delivered her debut budget and the market digested plans to ramp up borrowing
31st Oct 24, 7:51am
The US economy expanded underpinned by strong consumer spending. UK gilts were volatile as UK chancellor delivered her debut budget and the market digested plans to ramp up borrowing