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Stuart Ritson
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Softer than expected PMI data across Europe contributed to a fall in German bund yields. In contrast, US PMI data was relatively robust with the composite index remaining near two-year highs. The US dollar was broadly stronger
24th Jun 24, 7:25am
Softer than expected PMI data across Europe contributed to a fall in German bund yields. In contrast, US PMI data was relatively robust with the composite index remaining near two-year highs. The US dollar was broadly stronger
Markets confined to narrow ranges with the mid-week US public holiday impacting activity. Japan considering issuing bonds with shorter maturities as the Bank of Japan reduces its JGB purchases
20th Jun 24, 7:48am
Markets confined to narrow ranges with the mid-week US public holiday impacting activity. Japan considering issuing bonds with shorter maturities as the Bank of Japan reduces its JGB purchases
A risk off tone dominated global markets into the end of last week as concern about the political crisis in France deepened. US consumer confidence weaker than expected. Global bond yields moved lower
17th Jun 24, 7:25am
A risk off tone dominated global markets into the end of last week as concern about the political crisis in France deepened. US consumer confidence weaker than expected. Global bond yields moved lower
The US Fed left rates on hold for a seventh straight meeting as was unanimously expected. Officials signaled they expect to cut rates by 25bps this year, down from 75bps at the March FOMC. US CPI data for May was softer than expected
13th Jun 24, 7:47am
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The US Fed left rates on hold for a seventh straight meeting as was unanimously expected. Officials signaled they expect to cut rates by 25bps this year, down from 75bps at the March FOMC. US CPI data for May was softer than expected
An upside surprise to US nonfarm payrolls and strong wage growth pushed global bond yields sharply higher. The USD made broad gains. Markets trimmed expectations for Fed easing, pushing back a cut to December
10th Jun 24, 7:22am
An upside surprise to US nonfarm payrolls and strong wage growth pushed global bond yields sharply higher. The USD made broad gains. Markets trimmed expectations for Fed easing, pushing back a cut to December
Buoyant investor risk sentiment underpinned global equities with the S&P up nearly 1% and retesting its record high. US service ISM rebounds strongly from contractionary levels in April. The Bank of Canada cut rates by 25bps
6th Jun 24, 7:59am
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Buoyant investor risk sentiment underpinned global equities with the S&P up nearly 1% and retesting its record high. US service ISM rebounds strongly from contractionary levels in April. The Bank of Canada cut rates by 25bps
Weaker than expected US manufacturing ISM data contributed to a rally in US treasuries and a weaker US dollar. Oil prices fell sharply after OPEC+ announced plans to phase out its production cutbacks
4th Jun 24, 7:32am
Weaker than expected US manufacturing ISM data contributed to a rally in US treasuries and a weaker US dollar. Oil prices fell sharply after OPEC+ announced plans to phase out its production cutbacks
A continued move higher in global bond yields and tepid demand for US treasury supply weighed on investor risk appetite. Global equities fell with European indices close to 1% weaker
30th May 24, 7:50am
A continued move higher in global bond yields and tepid demand for US treasury supply weighed on investor risk appetite. Global equities fell with European indices close to 1% weaker
Moderation in US consumers’ inflation expectations underpins investor risk appetite. US Treasuries ended little-changed while the US dollar was weaker. Global equity markets were mixed in the absence of first tier economic data or fresh catalysts
27th May 24, 7:33am
Moderation in US consumers’ inflation expectations underpins investor risk appetite. US Treasuries ended little-changed while the US dollar was weaker. Global equity markets were mixed in the absence of first tier economic data or fresh catalysts
FOMC minutes for the May meeting were mildly hawkish. An upward surprise to UK CPI data contributed to sharp unwinding of BOE rate cut expectations. BNZ pushes back NZ rate cut expectation to February 2025
23rd May 24, 7:41am
FOMC minutes for the May meeting were mildly hawkish. An upward surprise to UK CPI data contributed to sharp unwinding of BOE rate cut expectations. BNZ pushes back NZ rate cut expectation to February 2025
China announced measures to stabilise the property market boosting domestic stocks. They eased property lending requirements allowing more flexibility for minimum mortgage rates. UST yields moved higher, fully reversing the post-CPI decline
20th May 24, 7:21am
China announced measures to stabilise the property market boosting domestic stocks. They eased property lending requirements allowing more flexibility for minimum mortgage rates. UST yields moved higher, fully reversing the post-CPI decline
The widely anticipated US CPI data matched consensus expectations, a relief for investors after three consecutive upside surprises. The market brought forward expectations for Fed rate cuts triggering a strong rally across global asset markets
16th May 24, 8:10am
The widely anticipated US CPI data matched consensus expectations, a relief for investors after three consecutive upside surprises. The market brought forward expectations for Fed rate cuts triggering a strong rally across global asset markets
US treasury yields moved higher, despite weak consumer sentiment data, as inflation expectations rose. Currency markets were broadly stable. The CAD outperformed after strong labour market data reduced the chance of a June rate cut there
13th May 24, 7:28am
US treasury yields moved higher, despite weak consumer sentiment data, as inflation expectations rose. Currency markets were broadly stable. The CAD outperformed after strong labour market data reduced the chance of a June rate cut there
Global markets confined to narrow ranges in the absence of first-tier economic data or other catalysts. Comments that the BoJ is watching the impact of the weak yen on inflation failed to provide support
9th May 24, 7:42am
Global markets confined to narrow ranges in the absence of first-tier economic data or other catalysts. Comments that the BoJ is watching the impact of the weak yen on inflation failed to provide support
US labour market data the services ISM were weaker than expected. This rekindled hopes for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year which underpinned equities. US treasury yields declined sharply but rebounded off lows
6th May 24, 7:37am
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US labour market data the services ISM were weaker than expected. This rekindled hopes for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year which underpinned equities. US treasury yields declined sharply but rebounded off lows
Stronger than expected US employment cost data raises concerns that sticky wage inflation could further delay the Fed’s rate cutting cycle and weighed on risk sentiment
1st May 24, 7:45am
Stronger than expected US employment cost data raises concerns that sticky wage inflation could further delay the Fed’s rate cutting cycle and weighed on risk sentiment
Global asset markets ended last week on a positive note. The S&P advanced 1% following upbeat earnings. US PCE core deflator data was in line with consensus estimates. The yen remained under pressure
29th Apr 24, 7:33am
Global asset markets ended last week on a positive note. The S&P advanced 1% following upbeat earnings. US PCE core deflator data was in line with consensus estimates. The yen remained under pressure
Investor risk appetite recovers underpinning global equities as market looks ahead to earnings reports from US Big Tech. Treasury yields fell alongside the US dollar, following weaker than expected preliminary US PMIs
24th Apr 24, 7:51am
Investor risk appetite recovers underpinning global equities as market looks ahead to earnings reports from US Big Tech. Treasury yields fell alongside the US dollar, following weaker than expected preliminary US PMIs
Investor risk sentiment recovered after Iran played down the damage following retaliatory strikes by Israel. Safe haven flows into US treasuries and defensive currencies reversed. NZD/USD recovered from 2024 lows but then lost traction
22nd Apr 24, 7:21am
Investor risk sentiment recovered after Iran played down the damage following retaliatory strikes by Israel. Safe haven flows into US treasuries and defensive currencies reversed. NZD/USD recovered from 2024 lows but then lost traction
US Fed Chair Powell signals high rates for longer due to persistent inflation. 2-year US treasury yields reach 5%, the highest level since November. China set a weaker than expected daily yuan reference rate hurting commodity currencies
17th Apr 24, 8:02am
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US Fed Chair Powell signals high rates for longer due to persistent inflation. 2-year US treasury yields reach 5%, the highest level since November. China set a weaker than expected daily yuan reference rate hurting commodity currencies
Investor risk aversion weighed on growth sensitive assets at end of last week amid concern about escalating hostilities. The S&P fell -1.5%, while US Treasuries and the US dollar rallied. The NZD was amongst the weakest developed market currencies
15th Apr 24, 7:26am
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Investor risk aversion weighed on growth sensitive assets at end of last week amid concern about escalating hostilities. The S&P fell -1.5%, while US Treasuries and the US dollar rallied. The NZD was amongst the weakest developed market currencies
Stronger than expected US CPI data prompted large moves across global asset markets. The S&P is down more than 1%. US treasury yields surged with big gains for the US dollar. The RBNZ decision had limited market reaction
11th Apr 24, 8:05am
Stronger than expected US CPI data prompted large moves across global asset markets. The S&P is down more than 1%. US treasury yields surged with big gains for the US dollar. The RBNZ decision had limited market reaction
Strong US labour market suggests their economy remains resilient and intensified the debate about when the Fed might ease monetary policy. US treasuries back near the yield highs for the year while the US dollar couldn't sustain initial gains
8th Apr 24, 7:34am
Strong US labour market suggests their economy remains resilient and intensified the debate about when the Fed might ease monetary policy. US treasuries back near the yield highs for the year while the US dollar couldn't sustain initial gains
A softer than expected US services ISM moved markets but Powell didn't. Eurozone CPI below estimates in March; ECB might start rate cuts in June. Gold prices extend to fresh record highs having gained more than 15% since mid-February
4th Apr 24, 7:43am
A softer than expected US services ISM moved markets but Powell didn't. Eurozone CPI below estimates in March; ECB might start rate cuts in June. Gold prices extend to fresh record highs having gained more than 15% since mid-February
The US ISM manufacturing PMI rose to exceed all economist estimates. It was the first time the index moved into expansionary territory since September 2022. US treasury yields spiked higher in response and the USD rose
2nd Apr 24, 7:21am
The US ISM manufacturing PMI rose to exceed all economist estimates. It was the first time the index moved into expansionary territory since September 2022. US treasury yields spiked higher in response and the USD rose