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Stuart Talman
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US jobs report burt by hurricanes & strikes, just 12,000 jobs added. UST yields & dollar initially drop before reversing to log bullish close. A momentous week ahead; US election and FOMC to deliver volatility step-up
4th Nov 24, 7:34am
US jobs report burt by hurricanes & strikes, just 12,000 jobs added. UST yields & dollar initially drop before reversing to log bullish close. A momentous week ahead; US election and FOMC to deliver volatility step-up
US 10yr note yield at highest level since July. USD stronger across the board. Geopolitics and US election race to influence this week's directional moves
22nd Oct 24, 7:56am
US 10yr note yield at highest level since July. USD stronger across the board. Geopolitics and US election race to influence this week's directional moves
Is US exceptionalism back? US economy a notable outperformer. FOMC minutes confirm majority favoured a 50 bps cut, with a few preferring 25 bps
14th Oct 24, 7:20am
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Is US exceptionalism back? US economy a notable outperformer. FOMC minutes confirm majority favoured a 50 bps cut, with a few preferring 25 bps
Blowout US jobs report, NFP sharply higher, jobless rate falls from 4.2% to 4.1%. Rates markets hawkishly reprice, stripping out odds of 50bps of November cut. US treasury yields and the dollar rip higher
7th Oct 24, 9:04am
Blowout US jobs report, NFP sharply higher, jobless rate falls from 4.2% to 4.1%. Rates markets hawkishly reprice, stripping out odds of 50bps of November cut. US treasury yields and the dollar rip higher
Positive risk sentiment reigns, commodities, pro-cyclical currencies stronger. ECB delivers widely expected 25bps cut; projected to cut once more in 2024
13th Sep 24, 7:43am
Positive risk sentiment reigns, commodities, pro-cyclical currencies stronger. ECB delivers widely expected 25bps cut; projected to cut once more in 2024
September has been a horrendous month for US equities, with the S&P500 falling in the previous four. When Wall Street returns, there will also be a busy week of US data, ending with the US labour market update
3rd Sep 24, 7:53am
September has been a horrendous month for US equities, with the S&P500 falling in the previous four. When Wall Street returns, there will also be a busy week of US data, ending with the US labour market update
US dollar & treasury yields track higher despite marginal PCE miss. Tokyo CPI runs hotter-than-expected adding weight to case for a Japan October rate hike. ECB likely to cut in September. RBA not cutting
2nd Sep 24, 8:39am
US dollar & treasury yields track higher despite marginal PCE miss. Tokyo CPI runs hotter-than-expected adding weight to case for a Japan October rate hike. ECB likely to cut in September. RBA not cutting
NZD rips through 62 US cents to mark 8 month highs a few pips shy of 62.4 USc. Powell delivers dovish Jackson Hole address, acknowledges labour market softness
26th Aug 24, 8:56am
NZD rips through 62 US cents to mark 8 month highs a few pips shy of 62.4 USc. Powell delivers dovish Jackson Hole address, acknowledges labour market softness
Impressive risk rally: S&P500, Nasdaq log best weeks since October. Yields down, crude oil down, gold up, USD down
19th Aug 24, 8:13am
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Impressive risk rally: S&P500, Nasdaq log best weeks since October. Yields down, crude oil down, gold up, USD down
July US CPI prints in-line, headline falls below 3% for first time since March 2021. A September Fed cut locked in; question remains 25bps or 50bps? A busy day ahead: JP & UK GDP, China activity data Aussie jobs, US retail sales
15th Aug 24, 7:42am
July US CPI prints in-line, headline falls below 3% for first time since March 2021. A September Fed cut locked in; question remains 25bps or 50bps? A busy day ahead: JP & UK GDP, China activity data Aussie jobs, US retail sales
PBoC easing, delivers surprise cuts to both 7-day repo rate and 1 & 5 yr. LPRs. Yuan likely to remain under pressure in short-term, another NZD headwind
23rd Jul 24, 7:52am
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PBoC easing, delivers surprise cuts to both 7-day repo rate and 1 & 5 yr. LPRs. Yuan likely to remain under pressure in short-term, another NZD headwind
US retail sales stronger: growth in control group climbs most since April 2023. Dollar (DXY) stabilises above critical support, yet yields continue to soften. Focus will be on domestic (non-tradables) inflation, RBNZ's projection of 5.3%
17th Jul 24, 8:00am
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US retail sales stronger: growth in control group climbs most since April 2023. Dollar (DXY) stabilises above critical support, yet yields continue to soften. Focus will be on domestic (non-tradables) inflation, RBNZ's projection of 5.3%
French election impasse: euro gaps lower before recovering; who will govern? US dollar's slide halted as market awaits key event risk, headlined by June US CPI
9th Jul 24, 7:45am
French election impasse: euro gaps lower before recovering; who will govern? US dollar's slide halted as market awaits key event risk, headlined by June US CPI
US dollar continues to trade soft in wake of large ISM Services miss. ECB minutes and officials' speeches at Sintra conference preach patience
5th Jul 24, 7:46am
US dollar continues to trade soft in wake of large ISM Services miss. ECB minutes and officials' speeches at Sintra conference preach patience
French legislative election: Le Pen's RN claims first round victory. French-German yield spreads to widen; euro under pressure to start week. US equities down, yields up, crude oil down, gold flat, USD mixed
1st Jul 24, 8:26am
French legislative election: Le Pen's RN claims first round victory. French-German yield spreads to widen; euro under pressure to start week. US equities down, yields up, crude oil down, gold flat, USD mixed
S&P PMIs run hot in US, whilst in eurozone, print softer for a second month. USD ends the week on strong footing - DXY approaching critical resistance. French political risk to remain a factor in lead up to weekend's round 1 election
24th Jun 24, 8:35am
S&P PMIs run hot in US, whilst in eurozone, print softer for a second month. USD ends the week on strong footing - DXY approaching critical resistance. French political risk to remain a factor in lead up to weekend's round 1 election
Non-farm payrolls blowout! 272K new jobs (vs 185K) created, average hourly earnings hotter. US treasury yields and dollar rip higher as less than 2 x 25bps hikes priced in. A mammoth week ahead: double header, US CPI and FOMC meeting
10th Jun 24, 8:45am
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Non-farm payrolls blowout! 272K new jobs (vs 185K) created, average hourly earnings hotter. US treasury yields and dollar rip higher as less than 2 x 25bps hikes priced in. A mammoth week ahead: double header, US CPI and FOMC meeting
Risk assets beaten down through Asia and Europe sessions, pare losses in US. JOLTS Job Openings fall to 3-yr low; more evidence US jobs market is cooling. US rates extend slide on weak data
5th Jun 24, 7:43am
Risk assets beaten down through Asia and Europe sessions, pare losses in US. JOLTS Job Openings fall to 3-yr low; more evidence US jobs market is cooling. US rates extend slide on weak data
Buoyant risk sentiment fades as US PMIs add to sticky inflation concerns. US yields/dollar firm as PMIs surprise higher; Septmer Fed cut odds below 60%. Eurozone PMIs continue trend of improving survey data; brighter conditions
24th May 24, 7:58am
Buoyant risk sentiment fades as US PMIs add to sticky inflation concerns. US yields/dollar firm as PMIs surprise higher; Septmer Fed cut odds below 60%. Eurozone PMIs continue trend of improving survey data; brighter conditions
Equities up, yields up, crude up, gold up, US dollar down. It has been a huge week for commodities: oversized gains for precious and base metals. Post US CPI little has changed. Headline local upcoming event is the RBNZ decision
20th May 24, 8:57am
Equities up, yields up, crude up, gold up, US dollar down. It has been a huge week for commodities: oversized gains for precious and base metals. Post US CPI little has changed. Headline local upcoming event is the RBNZ decision
April US jobs numbers softer. US treasury yields and the dollar initially crunched; claw back some losses. Fed rate cuts expected to commence in September. Market pricing in 2 @ -25bps
6th May 24, 8:30am
April US jobs numbers softer. US treasury yields and the dollar initially crunched; claw back some losses. Fed rate cuts expected to commence in September. Market pricing in 2 @ -25bps
Market breathes a sigh of relief as monthly core US PCE prints in-line. US equities take flight on PCE data and impressive big-tech earnings. Bank of Japan delivers dovish on-hold decision, offers little forward guidance
29th Apr 24, 8:55am
Market breathes a sigh of relief as monthly core US PCE prints in-line. US equities take flight on PCE data and impressive big-tech earnings. Bank of Japan delivers dovish on-hold decision, offers little forward guidance
Megacap tech crunched, Nasdaq falls over 2%, longest losing streak since Jan 2022. Israel retaliation pushes risk assets lower. Big week of earnings ahead
22nd Apr 24, 8:10am
Megacap tech crunched, Nasdaq falls over 2%, longest losing streak since Jan 2022. Israel retaliation pushes risk assets lower. Big week of earnings ahead
A perfect storm for the dollar; DXY on track to take out 2023 high. China activity data: GDP beats, retail sales, industrial production misses.PBoC appears to be conceding defeat to USD given weak CNY fixing
17th Apr 24, 8:10am
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A perfect storm for the dollar; DXY on track to take out 2023 high. China activity data: GDP beats, retail sales, industrial production misses.PBoC appears to be conceding defeat to USD given weak CNY fixing
US CPI runs hot for a 3rd month; headline rises. Implied probability of a June Fed cut falls from 50/50 to below 20%. RBNZ hold decision passes with minimal reaction; balanced view maintained
11th Apr 24, 8:36am
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US CPI runs hot for a 3rd month; headline rises. Implied probability of a June Fed cut falls from 50/50 to below 20%. RBNZ hold decision passes with minimal reaction; balanced view maintained