The Reserve Bank (RBNZ) has cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 4.25%, down from 4.75%.
It means the RBNZ has now trimmed the OCR by 125 basis points since August, taking it down from the peak level of 5.50% it was at for over a year. Banks have been similarly trimming their mortgage and deposit rates. ANZ moved its rates ahead of Wednesday's decision and more falls from other banks are likely to quickly follow.
The RBNZ said the average rate on outstanding mortgages has now peaked at 6.4% and is expected to decline to 5.8% percent over the next 12 months as borrowers refix their mortgage interest rates at lower levels in line with a falling OCR.
Wednesday's review of the OCR is the last for 2024, with the next one due on February 19 next year. The Kiwi dollar rose immediately after the announcement from US58.3c to US58.7c.
Westpac senior market strategist Imre Speizer said the announcement from the RBNZ was a "slightly hawkish" surprise for markets. He said the RBNZ had not lowered its OCR forecasts as much as expected in its newly published Monetary Policy Statement. He said immediately after the announcement the two-year swap rate was up 10 basis points to 3.71% and the 10 year swap was up 7bp to 4.15%.
The new OCR forecasts are the first ones since the MPS in August. The RBNZ latest forecasts suggest that the next cut in February may be just a 25 point cut, while the OCR is forecast to be around 3.5% by the end of next year.
By the end of the forecast period in December 2027 the OCR is forecast to be a little over 3% - and that's actually slightly higher than the terminal rate forecast in the previous MPS.
A 'hawkish' announcement
Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr also described the announcement as "hawkish" and said as a result of it "our view has been tweaked, a little".
"More cuts are required. And we need the cash rate below 4% asap. We advocate another 50bp move in February… but we now expect a 25bp move.
"And we’ve lifted our forecast terminal rate to 3%, no longer 2.5%. We've made these changes on the back of the RBNZ's tweaks. But we note that the RBNZ may be too hawkish, again (as they were in May)," Kerr said.
"The RBNZ is more comfortable than we are in the economic scarring inflicted and recovery. We think the RBNZ may be moving in the wrong direction, as they did in May. Time will tell. And we have a lot of time until their next decision in February," Kerr said.
Inflation as measured by the Consumers Price Index (CPI) dropped to an annual rate of 2.2% for the September quarter, down from 3.3% in the June quarter. The RBNZ has a target of maintaining inflation between 1% and 3%, with an explicit goal of 2%. The actual rate of inflation had been outside the targeted range since mid-2021.
According to the notes from the meeting of the RBNZ's Monetary Policy Committee, "measures of core inflation are converging on the target midpoint, and inflation expectations at all horizons are close to the target midpoint".
'Inflation pressures will abate'
"With significant spare productive capacity expected in the economy over the next 12 months, the Committee is confident that remaining inflation pressures will abate. Feedback from recent surveys and business visits suggest domestic price and wage setting behaviours are becoming consistent with inflation remaining sustainably at target."
The Committee said it discussed two key uncertainties to the near-term outlook.
"While domestic price setting behaviour is now more in line with the Committee’s inflation objective, members discussed uncertainty about the persistence of some components of inflation. The Committee also noted that, while lower interest rates are expected to underpin a recovery in the domestic economy, the exact speed and timing of the recovery is subject to uncertainty."
The Committee said geopolitical risks and climate-related energy and food risks pose uncertainty over the medium term.
"There may be higher relative price volatility and more unpredictability in aggregate inflation. The Committee agreed that having consumer price inflation close to the middle of its target band puts it in the best position to respond to any shocks to inflation.
"If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee expects to be able to lower the OCR further early next year."
This is the statement from the Reserve Bank:
The Monetary Policy Committee today agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate by 50 basis points to 4.25 percent.
Annual consumer price inflation has declined and is now close to the midpoint of the Monetary Policy Committee’s 1 to 3 percent target band. Inflation expectations are also close to target and core inflation is converging to the midpoint. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee expects to be able to lower the OCR further early next year.
Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued and output continues to be below its potential. With excess productive capacity in the economy, inflation pressures have eased. Domestic price and wage setting behaviours are becoming consistent with inflation remaining near the target midpoint. The price of imports has fallen, also contributing to lower headline inflation.
Economic growth is expected to recover during 2025, as lower interest rates encourage investment and other spending. Employment growth is expected to remain weak until mid-2025 and, for some, financial stress will take time to ease.
Global economic growth is expected to remain subdued in the near term. Geopolitical conditions and policy uncertainty could contribute to increased economic and inflation volatility over the medium term.
The Monetary Policy Committee agreed that having consumer price inflation close to the middle of its target band puts it in the best position to respond to any shocks to inflation.
Summary of Monetary Policy Committee meeting:
Consumer price inflation is sustainably within the Monetary Policy Committee’s 1 to 3 percent target range, and measures of core inflation are converging on the midpoint. Restrictive monetary policy and subdued economic activity overseas have slowed domestic demand. Lower import prices have also contributed to lower inflation. Expectations of future inflation, the pricing intentions of firms, and spare productive capacity are consistent with the inflation target being sustainably achieved. This provides the context and the confidence for the Committee to further ease monetary policy restraint.
Global economic activity expected to remain subdued
Economic growth rates in the US and China are expected to slow over the year ahead, while the growth outlook for Europe remains sluggish. Headline inflation is close to target in most advanced countries, but some persistence in services inflation remains. Central banks are reducing interest rates, although the pace of monetary policy easing varies across countries due to differences in economic conditions. Global sovereign debt levels have increased markedly since 2020 and continue to expand. This creates risks of higher global bond yields and risk premia.
Significant spare productive capacity expected over the next year
Domestic economic activity remains below trend, as a result of weakness in demand for durable goods consumption and investment. This has been reflected in falling activity in interest rate sensitive sectors such as construction, manufacturing, and retail trade. In contrast, some services sectors have continued to grow.
Considerable spare productive capacity remains in the economy, although this is expected to steadily reduce over the projection period. Consistent with feedback from business visits, high frequency indicators suggest that the economy has stabilised in recent months. Economic growth is expected to recover from the December quarter, in part due to lower interest rates, but there is uncertainty around the exact timing and speed of the recovery.
The Committee noted that the projections incorporate the fiscal assumptions from the 2024 Budget Economic and Fiscal Update.
Labour market conditions easing
Wage growth is slowing, consistent with inflation returning to the target midpoint. Employment levels and job vacancies have declined, reflecting subdued economic activity. Unemployment is expected to continue rising in the near term since the labour market typically takes longer to recover than output. Net immigration to New Zealand has reduced significantly from high rates over recent history. The rate of migrant arrivals has slowed, and departures of New Zealanders have increased, partly in response to subdued labour market conditions relative to Australia.
Lower OCR passing through to mortgage rates
Market interest rates have declined in response to actual and expected OCR reductions. The decline in mortgage rates has been less than for wholesale rates, in part reflecting changes in the composition and cost of bank funding. The average rate on outstanding mortgages has now peaked at 6.4 percent and is expected to decline to 5.8 percent over the next 12 months as borrowers refix their mortgage interest rates at lower levels in line with a falling OCR.
No trade-off between meeting inflation objectives and financial stability
The Committee noted the findings of the Bank’s November 2024 Financial Stability Report. Some households and businesses are experiencing financial stress. While non-performing loans remain low compared to past recessions, further financial stress is likely to emerge even as the economy recovers. The banking system remains well capitalised and in a strong financial position to support customers experiencing distress. The Committee agreed that there is currently no material trade-off between meeting inflation objectives and maintaining financial stability.
Inflation is expected to remain near the midpoint
Headline consumer price inflation has declined to close to the target midpoint, measures of core inflation are converging on the target midpoint, and inflation expectations at all horizons are close to the target midpoint. With significant spare productive capacity expected in the economy over the next 12 months, the Committee is confident that remaining inflation pressures will abate. Feedback from recent surveys and business visits suggest domestic price and wage setting behaviours are becoming consistent with inflation remaining sustainably at target.
There are near-term risks to the economic outlook
The Committee discussed two key uncertainties to the near-term outlook. While domestic price setting behaviour is now more in line with the Committee’s inflation objective, members discussed uncertainty about the persistence of some components of inflation. The Committee also noted that, while lower interest rates are expected to underpin a recovery in the domestic economy, the exact speed and timing of the recovery is subject to uncertainty.
There is a risk of greater inflation volatility over the medium term
Geopolitical risks and climate-related energy and food risks pose uncertainty over the medium term. There may be higher relative price volatility and more unpredictability in aggregate inflation. The Committee agreed that having consumer price inflation close to the middle of its target band puts it in the best position to respond to any shocks to inflation.
The Committee agreed to lower the OCR
With headline inflation close to the midpoint and measures of core inflation converging on the midpoint, the Committee has more confidence to continue removing monetary policy restraint. The Committee agreed that a 50 basis point cut is consistent with their mandate of maintaining low and stable inflation, while seeking to avoid unnecessary instability in output, employment, interest rates and the exchange rate.
If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee expects to be able to lower the OCR further early next year.
On Wednesday 27 November the Committee reached a consensus to lower the Official Cash Rate by 50 basis points to 4.25 percent.
102 Comments
No, inflation is not 4+%. https://www.stats.govt.nz/indicators/consumers-price-index-cpi/
To calculate CPI we select a fixed 'basket' of goods and services. We choose the items and determine their relative importance based on spending patterns. The items in the CPI basket represent how New Zealand households spend their money.
https://www.stats.govt.nz/topics/consumers-price-index#:~:text=To%20cal….
"those with debt or have lost jobs are having a very rough time"
I'd adjust that slightly - those with debt AND have lost jobs are having a very rough time - and that would be true at any stage of the cycle.
Those with jobs AND have debt have struggled for sometime and will be looking forward to some relief.
Those without debt AND without jobs (retirees) are facing a reduction in their income.
You cant please all of the people all of the time. The worst aspect of this is the people who were responsible for driving us into a recession aren't accountable.
There are two measures of inflation.
1. RBNZ's CPI ... This is the one we hear so much about. It is not a real measure for most kiwis. Further, the RBNZ introduces b.s. by introducing statistically unsound measures like 'domestic' and 'imported', i.e. non-tradeable and tradable.
2. Stat's NZ's CPI ... Called the HLPI. This is a better measure. (It includes the bollocks the RBNZ gets to shaft the average Kiwi with.)
This is inaccurate.
There is one CPI, produced by StatsNZ. This includes tradeables and non-tradeable, although stats don't labour the point.
Stats also produces the HLPI, which has different baskets of goods than the CPI and allows for different income ranges.
RBNZ uses stats CPI, but also its own sectoral factoral model. They do make a bigger deal of tradeables and non-tradeables.
There are also other inflation types indices for various sectors
Come on rastus, I thought you'd know that even if you only grow by 50c for each dollar of debt added, you're still growing!
Thank goodness we're leaving behind the crazy high interest rates that limited how much debt we could take on for, ahem, productive purposes.
Swaps are sharply higher
Which swaps exactly? Nothing here indicates sharply higher swap rates:
https://www.interest.co.nz/charts/interest-rates/swap-rates
"the unemployment rate projected to increase further to a peak of 5.2 percent in the March 2025 quarter. The unemployment rate is then assumed to steadily decline in line with the forecast recovery in GDP growth."
Looking at the graph that goes along with that statement, that is actually a lower peak unemployment rate than they predicted at the Aug MPS. I have a feeling we are going to blow well past 5.2% unemployment!
This from Australia .... Now imagine how much worse it is in NZ and how much longer it will be before NZ households recover.
Australia’s living standards are unlikely to return to the levels they were before the inflation crisis hit until well beyond 2026, and possibly not until the end of the decade, with the household pain caused by the price shock set to continue for years to come.
Real household disposable income will recover only half the ground lost during the crisis by 2026, with the likelihood that households will continue to remain worse off overall even after inflation has been returned to the central bank’s target band.
Analysis of the RBA’s own forecasts contained in its November statement on monetary policy show real household income per capita will rise by 1.2 per cent in 2025 and then 1.1 per cent in 2026 with a forecast increase of 1.3 per cent in the latest December quarter. It suggests a recovery in living standards has begun but on the back of the sharpest decline since World War II.
The Coalition has used the last parliamentary sitting week of the year to zero in on the decline, after The Australian last week revealed that living standards over the past two years had fallen more sharply than any other period since 1959, including the four technical recessions to have occurred since then.
One in five Australian renters are living without essential items and in poverty, peak body study finds
Inflation rate holds steady in the year to October, keeping price rises at their lowest level since July 2021
"One in five Australian renters are living without essential items. 22% of those live in poverty" as per the article shared.
Some of those Kiwis who are immigrating to Aus for a better life could just get added to those Australian statistics. Still, the grass will always "look greener" on the other side.
Whether we're in the agreement or not, there's no scenario in the current climate where China or any country would invade NZ or be 'allowed' to invade NZ. If the world gets to that state, nuclear war is almost a certainty.
Infinitely more likely is being dragged into conflicts like Iraq and Afghanistan.
What we need to focus on is protecting our EEZ against soft invasion from illegal fleets.
NZ's only meaningful contribution to any form of defense pact is in reputation. If there's quid pro quo in it economically, why not, but it should be high.
Easy to not understand that the years of relative peace (for most) was due to the nuclear threat and one big boy on the block calling the shots.
Like it or not, without being mates with the big fella, we are helpless.
Human history is littered with slaughter, rape and pillage.
Being a peacenik is no defence.
It's interesting that the RBA isn't planning to cut rates until May next year. Their cash rate is 4.35%, while ours is slightly lower at 4.25%. Our 10-year bonds are pretty close, both around 4.4%. Can the RBNZ cut below our 10-year bond rate and will in make a difference to mortgage rates? The NZ10Y has already climbed 7bps since the rate cut.
Short end can be lower but its difficult for the main banks to fund as there are so few term deposits here vs Mortgages in value, so most banks fund longer offshore from Europe or USA and swap back into kiwi, thus international funding markets play a bigger part of 1 year plus mortgage rates.
The RBNZ could print cash again and run a funding for xmas campaign...
NZ banks have 457b on deposit. Of that 224b in TD's ad 109b in savings accounts.
So more than enough to 100% fund the 271b of owner occupied lending and personal consumer lending.
The 277b of business lending (that includes property investor "businesses") should be the sector that is exposed to offshore lending costs.
If Aunt Murtle is getting 4.5% for her 2 year TD. Why can we have a mortgage for 5.5% fixed for 2 years?
"The NZ10Y has already climbed 7bps since the rate cut."
When bond yields rise it means the underlying 'face value' of the bond has fallen.
This could be vote of no confidence in the bonds being sold. One could say that holders of the 10yr bond don't expect things to get better. Ergo, the yield goes up as the risk has gone up.
Prepare for some pretty lukewarm Black Friday spending data.
What is likely is that if anything, the Christmas rush is cannabilised and we end up with a moderate BF but extremely quiet trading in December. There simply won't be new spending that wasn't already factored in people's plans, which was to not spend much at all.
Realistically it is too little, too late. The busiest hospo and retail time of the year is coming and is likely to be a bust. How many businesses will have been holding out for lower rates and a bigger spend up, who now face difficult operating decisions?
I have spent a bit on Stihl kit, but I have been waiting 6 months for the black Friday pricing.
Only Temu etc doing better this year.
2025 going to bring a lot of retail into liquidation, the rents are simply too high, and in many spaces online is eating their lunch, even domestically before you shop temu
"Prepare for some pretty lukewarm Black Friday spending data."
I'd love to agree with you, GV 27. Alas, the great unwashed have a bad habit of seeing lower rates as a license to spend, spend, spend. To be honest, I have no idea how people will spend this Christmas.
The over leveraged loan topper uppers will be happy. The people hurting from inflation driven pain will not, as they now expect more of that. That said the leverage speculation sector (construction) is all engines stop. The underlying issues is excessive land prices and inflation fueled construction costs. If inflation takes off again this will be viewed as another mistake, but that is Orr's track record.
The safe employment and low debt are all happy, but that is a result of their actions.
Yep 100%. I got 7 figures I need to roll over in 2 weeks and I was pricing in getting rates around 6% at time of refix when I was looking mid year. If I end up closer to 5% on the 11th of Dec when I fix, I'll be pretty chuffed. For every 0.1% drop in rate, that's near on $2k a year in my pocket. So 50 basis is $10k cash in my pocket. #loantopperupperhappy TimeToParty
Some will argue 0.50 is not enough however it is still good news for those individuals and businesses that are currently struggling with their debt and other expenses. There are certainly plenty of them and the number will increase as businesses restructure or close down completely and people lose their jobs. Todays move by the RB is a positive move and signals better times to come.
New Zealand as per usual is caught in a hard place between China and the US. Will we see any growth in 2025. Hoping on Ag exports as the remainder of the economy brings in the strait jacket is not going to be enough. If I'd been Orr I'd have gone for a either a 75 or 100 base cut forcing the Banks to respond. But that is just me.
That's not how I see it. The Coalition is in a tricky spot. The Governor said RBNZ is concerned about administrative-led inflation (I think the Q came from Jim Hickey). Loose Government spending feeds inflation, which no-one wants. But its attempts to get the books back into black can also impact on the wider economy, for example a big rise in user-pays fees for public transport, and higher energy levies which impacts on discretionary spending power.
Government spending is far above where it would have been had we not had COVID and Labour's spend-thrift response. The National-led government can't quickly rein that back and we see a Government deficit lasting longer as a consequence.
Private investment is crucial to a healthy economy, which in-turn, helps the Government fund the services you would expect it to provide without creating a debt-burden for future generations.
"Loose Government spending feeds inflation"
Um, No. At the right time, it does no such thing. At other times, it can.
(And when one's Reserves Bank starts throwing huge quantities of cheap money around? Well - the outcome is certain. The government of the day is fucked - inflation is guaranteed - and the government, no matter how good, or how bad, is right royally fucked.)
You did not ignore it.
I'm not trolling... at all.
It its a legitimate policy they are carrying out, personally i think it took far too long for someone to do something about it.
don't get me wrong i'm not talking the people who really need it.
I'm talking about people like the guy on the benefit who was caught trafficking weed from Whangarei to Hastings and got caught with $108,000 cash in his boot and claimed he didn't know how it got there, we have become way too soft on this.
But if you choose dismiss these topics by calling them a troll, instead of having conversation about it, are you really understanding how New Zealanders feel about these issues?
Mortgage relief is on the way because our plan is supporting lower inflation. The Reserve Bank has cut the Official Cash Rate to 4.25%, the lowest since November 2022.
https://x.com/chrisluxonmp/status/1861583926608961696?ref_src=twsrc%5Et…
The headline and article could also have been
'Interest Rates Increase to the Highest Ever over the last 15 Years'
The Reserve Bank confirmed today that "the average rate on outstanding mortgages has now peaked at 6.4%" as those mortgages that were on 3 to 5 year rates in the 4% range come off their terms and get refixed at approx 50% higher
Which means that the pain will still be there for some time, a pertinent fact that vested interests have been conveniently ignoring and implying everything is fine
Practically nobody was on a 5 year fix and that would be ending soon anyway so they are rolling off onto lower rates by the day. Pretty much everyone is now either floating or on a 6 month fix so the drop in the OCR will flow through very quickly. My partner has her 6 month coming off at the beginning of Feb, the discussion now will be how long to re-fix for.
'Wage setting behaviour' New Zealand Health offering Nurses a 1% rise over the coming years. Meanwhile in Auckland's ICU with the no reemployment the staffing is down 30%, and the prediction from staff is without surgeries occuring the next step will be to close off beds due to lack of demand.
Simply translated the kidney transplant, etc not happening and instead the work load will be sepsis and pnuemonia and truama.
Just setting us up for the next crisis.
That's how National roll. Kick all the hard long term decisions down the road in order to claim a paper thin surplus that in reality doesnt mean much. Its what they did last time and its what they'll do now.
Except, this time, people will notice if their parents die becuase they couldnt get into ICU after a heart attack. The service has been cut back so much.
I really hope the nurses push back on this nonsense, they hold all the power here. Last time they were walkovers when National was in. They deserve to be paid the market rates for their salaries - or they should walk and go to Australia where they will be treated as the professionals that they are. Same with Police and across other critical professions too.
Property investors and homeowners with floating mortgage will be happy.
The interest rate cut does nothing for beneficiaries and the poor who are renting at some of the highest rent/income ratios in the oecd and are the ones facing the brunt of the cost of living crisis.
They will be further screwed over when the power price increases come through.
"Property investors and homeowners with floating mortgage will be happy."
Not just them.
Most NZ businesses have significant borrowings. Most usually at floating rates and higher.
Please spare a thought for NZ Inc. We're NOT just property investors and holders of absurdly big mortgages.
Some of us borrow to build and create new stuff.
As predicted. Great news for mortgage holders on the 6 month fix rolling off early next year. Trump is now the fly in the ointment so the RBNZ will wait and watch now till Feb 2025. I expect no cuts then or maybe another 25bps, anyone expecting further 50bps cuts from now is going to be disappointed. Good news for the housing market we can now expect prices to start rising.
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