The number of filled jobs in New Zealand is down by over 20,000 in the past year, according to the latest monthly figures from Statistics NZ.
According to the monthly employment indicators (MEI), the total of filled jobs as at the end of September stood at 2.35 million, down 0.9% on the same month a year ago.
Youth have borne the brunt of the big losses in filled job numbers over the past year, with the number of 15-29 year-olds in filled jobs down by about 29,000 compared with a year ago.
The figures for the September 2024 month were officially unchanged on a seasonally-adjusted basis from those in August. This means there's been no rise in the number of filled jobs in any of the past six months.
The August figures, reported by Stats NZ earlier this month, were originally reported to have grown slightly. However, they've now been revised down to 'flat'.
It's been a pattern this year that the monthly figures have initially tended to overstate the number of filled jobs, with downward revisions in subsequent months being very frequent.
The latest figures come ahead of the official unemployment figures to be released on Wednesday, November 6. The unemployment figures, as measured by the Stats NZ's Household Labour Force Survey, are expected to show another rise. The unemployment figure for the June 2024 quarter was 4.6%. The Reserve Bank (RBNZ) is forecasting that this will have risen to 5.0% by September 2024.
And the latest monthly employment indicator figures - while compiled differently - would certainly support the view that unemployment has continued to rise.
ASB senior economist Mark Smith said the latest employment indicators show "that the unemployment rate could approach 5%".
"The soft economy and gloomy headlines point to further labour market softening. A front-loaded pace of OCR [Official Cash Rate] cuts is still needed to avoid labour market scarring," he said.
The latest figures show the construction sector, in particular to be contracting substantially.
Actual (not seasonally adjusted) figures comparing September 2024 with September 2023 show that there are over 10,000 fewer construction jobs (5% fewer) now than compared with a year ago.
Other substantial sector drops were recorded in administrative and support services (over 7,000 fewer jobs), accommodation and food services (down over 6,000) and manufacturing (down over 5,700 jobs). Against this, health care and social assistance jobs were up 3.9% (more than 10,500 jobs).
Stats NZ said by region, the largest changes in the number of filled jobs in September 2024 compared with September 2023 were in:
- Auckland – down 1.3% (10,463 jobs)
- Wellington – down 1.1% (2,990 jobs)
- Manawatū-Whanganui – down 1.1% (1,279 jobs)
- Southland – down 2.0% (969 jobs)
- Taranaki – down 1.7% (954 jobs).
30 Comments
Yes, as Chris points out, there are several historical precedents. March 2009 to March 2010 was one. A less pronounced period from June 2011 to September 2012 as well.
@Chairman Moa - "Statistics New Zealand data, released on Tuesday, shows that the number of filled jobs has fallen by more than 20,000 (0.9%) in the past year. There has also been no monthly job growth in any of the past six months. Youth have bore the brunt of the decline in filled jobs, with the number of 15-29-year-olds in filled occupations falling by almost 29,000 compared to a year ago".
So, its the youth, 15-29yos that are bearing the brunt of job losses. The average age to buy a home in NZ is mid 30s.
15yos dont buy proprties. 15yos buy maccas & playstations. The two factors do match up.
Yes, we have another 6 - 12 months of this baked in. The big question is whether our Govt will allow this to continue, or, even make it worse.
And it may not.
Education & Health are still important to the electorate. Neither are going to be in great shape by then. (Friends who work in mental health - who call themselves little more than a MASH unit - are seeing patients turn up in the news. So expect law and order to be less than flash too.) Such sectors, once beaten down, take ages to build back up. Ho. Hum. We never learn.
You may well be right. I just don't doubt the ability of well-funded political parties to shape the public discourse. Are the people hassling good folks on the street in need of mental health services, housing, and a purpose / job, or are they feckless individuals that need to be punished until they get a job and become model citizens?
@ Chrisofnofame - "Education & Health are still important to the electorate. Neither are going to be in great shape by then"
To be fair, neither of these industries were in great shape come the last election. Hence the change in government, as the majority finally held the government of the day to account that the minority just let slide with a bunch of scapegoats as excuses.
But your right about one thing though - it will take ages to build back up. In the meantime have patience.
@ Chairman Moa - Every generation ends up having a brain drain of some sort. What's happening today is no exception of this, & it womt be the last brain drain that we have either. This is the current up & coming generations time for one.
Give them a few years to discover the grass ain't always greener on the other side, & you'll see a good number of these people return back to NZ with more experience within the next decade, or sooner still if another large scale pandemic occurs.
You'll also find a number of these people never actually intend on permanently being away from NZ, just a better pay overseas, meaning they can save up the deposit for a house easier, then eventually return back to NZ with further experiance which appeals to more employers for a higher wage or better job security, & the required deposit for a house in NZ. It's quite smart really.
My brother did this. Got the degree, but had no momey for a house deposit. On top of that, the jobs in NZ said "must have 3 years minimum experience". How's a graduate meant to get into the feild that requires experience, when no job gives them the chance to gain experience. So off overseas he goes, his wife too. Together they earned enough to not only live, but to save a decent chunk as well. After 3 years, back in the country, with both the experience & deposit required. Now they both have stable high paying positions in NZ, & a decent first home.
Ya gotta do what ya gotta do. Though I'll admit, it's a shame that NZ no longer recognizes it's degree holders as worth anything. I've worked with plenty of degree holders that just can't seem to get jobs relevant to their feild of qualification. Call centre supervisors who lead a small team of 10 should not be getting paid the same as or more than a nurse in this country. It's pretty whacked when it gets to that point, & does nothing to encourage the next generation to study anything specific when pay is considered so lousy.
I fear this is all according to plan given the media panic that was drummed up regarding full-employment driving inflation and leading to fruit rotting on trees. It seems quite clear that Orr and Luxon want a big reserve army of labour to keep NZ a low-wage economy with the profits flowing upwards to the rentiers. If it means you lose your job/business, well that's a sacrifice Orr is willing to make.
Look a little closer. Focus on May to September in isolation. I choose May as the start date as that is when the RBNZ really pooped the bed by threatening to raise the OCR again.
Total filled jobs - 31000 over those 6 months. 30000 of those from the 15-35 age bracket.
Why do we hate young people so much? Luckily we still have Australia as a safety valve.
Australia, where the cash rate is still lower than us and they haven't cut at all yet.
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