A near-six percent fall in the value of dairy exports led the overall value of New Zealand exports to fall 1.6% to NZ$11.3 billion in the June quarter from March, seasonally adjusted figures released by Statistics New Zealand show.
The value of imports also fell during the quarter by a similar amount to NZ$11.9 billion, leaving a trade deficit of NZ$664 million for the quarter.
The trend for exports has now fallen in three straight quarters since its record high in the September 2011 quarter, Stats NZ said.
In contrast, the trend for imports has kept rising steadily since the September 2009 quarter. However, the import trend was still below its September 2008 quarter peak, it said.
Exports down
"Milk powder, butter, and cheese (New Zealand’s largest export commodity) led the fall in seasonally adjusted exports in the June 2012 quarter, down 5.7 percent (NZ$164 million). This followed a 6.8 percent fall in the March 2012 quarter. Quantities for the June 2012 quarter fell 5.7 percent," Stats NZ said.
Other key quarterly falls in commodity export values were:
Fish, crustaceans, and molluscs, down 6.2 percent (NZ$23 million), with quantities down 13 percent; wool, down 11 percent (NZ$22 million), with quantities also down 2.5 percent; meat and edible offal (New Zealand’s second largest export commodity), down 1.5 percent (NZ$19 million), although quantities were up 2.5 percent.
Key rises in export values were:
Casein and caseinates, up 32 percent (NZ$62 million); fruit, up 14 percent (NZ$48 million), with quantities up 15 percent; logs, wood, and wood articles, up 3.4 percent (NZ$25 million), with quantities up 11 percent.
Oil imports down
On the import side of the ledger, the value of intermediate goods imports decreased 11 percent (NZ$620 million) following an increase of 5.0 percent (NZ$277 million) in the March 2012 quarter.
"The decrease was mainly due to crude oil, down 30 percent (NZ$497 million). Crude oil is not seasonally adjusted. Excluding crude oil, total intermediate goods fell 3.5 percent in the current quarter," Stats NZ said.
"Consumption goods increased 3.2 percent (NZ$89 million) in the June 2012 quarter. The value of consumption goods has been mainly increasing since the December 2009 quarter," it said.
"Capital goods increased 1.6 percent (NZ$35 million). Machinery and plant rose 13 percent (NZ$213 million) and was almost offset by transport equipment, down 37 percent (NZ$178 million)."
Monthly trade surplus
Despite the quarterly deficit, New Zealand recorded a trade surplus in the June 2012 month, Stats NZ said.
"For the June 2012 month, export values increased NZ$244 million (6.2 percent) compared with June 2011, and imports increased NZ$114 million (3.0 percent). The trade balance for the June 2012 month was a surplus of NZ$331 million (7.9 percent of exports). This compares with an average deficit of 4.8 percent of exports over the previous five June months," it said.
6 Comments
I received the following comment in an email from ANZ:
The June monthly trade surplus of $331m was higher than market expectations (+$2m). Once seasonality is taken into account, there was still a strong June monthly surplus ($192m). Driving the result was a 10.5 percent seasonally adjusted rise in export values, underpinned by a 26 percent surge in dairy exports. Import values fell 2.5 percent in June. The annual trade deficit narrowed to $747m, wider than the upwardly revised $876m annual deficit in May, and favourable in relation to the post-1990 average of a $1.5bn deficit.
Is their emphasis (not mine) at odds with the tenor of Stats NZ comment or do I detect heavy spin? But for what pressing need? Should depositors be asking questions and demanding answers?
I only ask as the recent BNZ article was trumpeting much the same without solid evidence.
Looking at the exchange rate fairly significant fall against Stg, AUD, and USD today, it looks like the market's first reaction is to the Stats Department narrative, and not to the banks' spin.
The fall is to be welcomed in my view, but time will tell whether it is sustained, or whether the banks all move to counter it.
Export Trend comes off peak......? when did that happen...? Fonterra told me it was all going swimmingly....they told the TAF vote it was all going swimmingly...John boy said it was all good after Timbo Geithner told him the advantages of a high dollar and how to hedge properly.......Billy Bob said he was frustrated about all the talk of an overvalued NZD......he can't be wrong can he........see http://www.interest.co.nz/currencies/60001/finance-minister-english-frustrated-talk-about-nz-says-credit-rating-agencies-say-i
Can He...? you bet your ass he can .....twat.
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