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Finance Minister is 'confident about the resilience' of the New Zealand economy, but warns supply chain issues could persist into next year

Public Policy / news
Finance Minister is 'confident about the resilience' of the New Zealand economy, but warns supply chain issues could persist into next year

Finance Minister Grant Robertson says the Government's committed to achieving its target of producing a Budget surplus in 2025, but warns that "there are no easy decisions".

And he's also warning that the current global supply chain issues could persist into next year.

Robertson appeared before Parliament's Finance & Expenditure Committee on Wednesday to talk about and face questions from MPs on his May Budget.

The National Party in particular continues to characterise Robertson as a big spender who doesn't keep to financial targets.

Ahead of this year's Budget announcement Robertson had signalled that the projected return to surplus would come a year later (2025) than had earlier been indicated.

National's deputy leader and finance spokesperson Nicola Willis said given Robertson's past pattern, she asked how the projected return to surplus could be taken seriously, and was he committed to achieving it?

“Of course we are committed to reaching that surplus," he said.

"And I’m very confident about the resilience of the New Zealand economy to be able to do that. But I’ve also been a Minister of Finance through a global pandemic and I know that forces you…there are no costless decisions, there are no easy decisions. It forces us as a Government to be nimble and adaptable that’s what we’ve been doing…the proof is in the pudding."

National's Andrew Bayley inquired whether the Government's level of spending had contributed to inflation [currently 6.9%] and through that the need for people to be paying higher interest rates [the Reserve Bank recently hiked the Official Cash Rate by another 50 points to 2.0%].

“What I accept is that there is a high level of demand in the New Zealand economy," Robertson said.

"That demand is not currently being met by supply. And those supply chain constraints are largely driven by global factors. There are factors within the domestic economy such as labour supply, which have been an issue. But actually they in turn are driven by the international issues with Covid...

“…Any spending by definition that any government would do has the potential to fuel inflation. What’s important is to make sure that the investments we make are targeted that they achieve the goals that are wider than just the management of inflation."

Asked by one of the Labour MPs about supply chain issues, Robertson said: “Unfortunately supply chain issues appear set to continue for some time.

"One of the biggest issues for New Zealand in recent times has been China’s continuing an elimination approach to Covid, which has meant that the port of Shanghai has been only open one-third of the days this year. And the port of Shanghai is a significant port for both imports and exports for New Zealanders..."

He said the price of containers had come down, but was now being forced up again by the Ukraine conflict. There had been issues around air freight, with the Government subsidising this. The return of passenger flights would help to ease the air freight situation. However...

“The trajectory is that there will be supply chain constraints for the remainder of this year and possiblty into the early part of next year.

"We continue to work actively with the sector to see what we can do, including in areas like product substitution where in the construction sector we’ve been working with the sector to see what alternative building materials we might be able to source because there are constraints on getting those materials into New Zealand.”

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56 Comments

The National Party in particular continues to characterise Robertson as a big spender who doesn't keep to financial targets.

Subtle fat shaming.

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12

... if he stopped spending like the Kardashians on a spree in the Louis Vuitton shop we'd have a shed load less debt & inflation right now , let alone by 2025  ...

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23

Aren't we fairly low on the OECD list when it comes to inflation, certainly lower than the OECD average?  

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13

He can say what he likes but likely he won’t be in government and thus it will scarcely matter then. One thing this government has excelled at, is making announcements calculated to be overtaken by time and/or launderable by something like, “oh I was just being too specific.” 

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21

... I wonder when the penny will drop , and Jacinda's team will wake up to the fact that every announcement they make now is met with howls of derision , with laughter & cynicism ...

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19

I think they know - they just do not care .

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15

I think the 2023 NZ government isn't going to be that wanted a prize.

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2

Never, Labour are their own biggest fans.

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11

The concerning thing is the lack of a sense-making alternative, to date. Let's hope the opposition options start to talk sense and propose viable policy approaches soon.

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7

To be fair having Luxon merely smiling and waving has gained National considerable ground in the polls.  

Seymour and ACT have been more active, but their ideas are normally mostly ignored by National.

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This is true. Smiling and waving worked for Key and Ardern. Might work for Key 3.0.

 

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Exactly, they can say what they want, being fuly aware that chances of them winning next year is dim and even if they win than who cares as that will be that last term

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Well Churchill said you can  fool all the people some of the time, some of the people all the time but you can’t fool all of them all of the time. Except this particular Labour lot here, can obviously fool all of themselves all the of the time.

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I think you will find it was Abraham Lincoln that the quote should be attributed to but, yes, I totally agree with what you are saying; they seem to be a government in total denial on all manner of critical things.

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appreciate the correction. just goes to show. you should look before you quote!

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My money is on a Labour-Green-Maori coalition.

Imagine the horror.

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15

Do you mean to say that we are all going to be horrified?

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You'll be pining for the days of only Labour's stupidity.

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Unfortunately we need this level of stupidity to bring inflation under control.... 

Not because they want to, but because they will keep forcing the RBNZ to continue crashing the economy.

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He might find himself adding to the deficit by claiming the dole if recent polls are a good indicator … 

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How much fiscal drag on income tax rates to help make that happen so it can be dressed up as fiscal prowess?

In other words, how much is he going to increase taxes in real terms while promising no new taxes at election time?  

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12

And GST

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Yeah right

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7

I mean, he won't be around to get the budget into surplus so the point is kinda moot. 

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11

... he'll be on the opposition benches , as leader of the Labour  Party ... howling at the National government that the PAYE tax bracket shifts are inflationary  ....

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Well at least in that case Luxon will finally take the shackles off the housing speculators, so the real 'engine room' of NZ can get back on track. And that on top of the the tax cuts, maybe Luxon can afford another rental as well? Jobs done.

Oh, and I heard him on the radio this morning pushing for warrantless searches of peoples houses, but you know, it is only going to be for the 'bad guys' so that is politically tenable apparently.

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Nah he will walk like Cullen did Leaving National to clean up the mess

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"One of the biggest issues for New Zealand in recent times has been China’s continuing an elimination approach to Covid, which has meant that the port of Shanghai has been only open one-third of the days this year. And the port of Shanghai is a significant port for both imports and exports for New Zealanders..."

Really Mr Robertson. Are the people who give you these talking points morons? Or did you go down a late night Youtube rabbit hole into BS land?

 

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15

Once Helen Clark remarked sourly but quite correctly that there is little point in stating the bleeding obvious. Some of Labour ‘s wannabes then obviously weren’t listening. Mind you they are hardly on their own.

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I think NZ is doomed.

 

In three decades time, NZ will truly become a South Pacific island nation, see what I mean?

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Well...I did always want to retire to a South Pacific island...

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If so China will help us out just like they are "helping out" all the other South Pacific island nations at present.

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Looking at current trends China will be old and still not that wealthy on an individual basis. They might end up a bit like Russia waving their toys to try and stay relevant

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In 3 decades Chinas population will be 20-30% less than now, the demographic legacy of the one child policy.  The population will halve by 2100.

So, China may not be helping anyone else fairly soon 

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.. best you leave right now , then ...

Don't mind us ... we reckon we'll get along nicely in Doomsville  , without our friend Mr X ... ciao ...

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It really depends on what you want. New Zealand was a very nice country when we had three million people and we were all equally poor. Then the flood gates were open to immigration and their wealth and greed. I am sure if national and act ever get back in they will finish things off.

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Labour seem to be doing a pretty good job in their place, so I wouldn't worry about having to wait for National to get back into power. You know, if you're actually concerned about the problem and not just looking to play the partisan blame-game. 

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Probably, With Labour I live in hope but with National it's a forgone conclusion.

 

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Any party that looks to coddle unproductive asset speculation while heavily taxing productive enterprise is useless to NZ and will only continue fostering our march toward looking like a developing country, including hiding in gated subdivisions from the poverty and crime we grow.

Which is both Labour and National, because neither looks willing to shift that balance away from asset speculation toward productive hard work. And productivity is the only thing that will lift living standards. If we vote in yet more speculators, we're really just looting the country.

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13

Everyone seems to want an alternative....  but who?

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Govt commits to take more money out of the economy in 2025 than it spends - a promise to reduce the financial wealth of some households and businesses. The question to ask is... Which households and businesses will get poorer so that Govt can run a surplus?       

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Hopefully the ones who voted this lot in.

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Probably the same households likely to cop it from misguided OCR hikes. Until Labour gives up on the third way and its appalling macro, it will never endure in electoral terms.

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Interest rates should be higher than inflation.  Productivity over speculation.  Give our kids a chance.

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So, according to you, people and firms invest based on interest rates and borrowing costs? Not on the basis of whether they think they'll get a positive return on their investment?

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I don't get the obsession with a budget surplus. You don't need a surplus to keep your net debt as a percentage of GDP steady or have it decrease

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The comments are much closer to reality than the story. But that's often the case.

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Yet another commitment he and his party doesn't need to worry about achieving because they wont be controlling the treasury benches by then.

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It's Nationals election to lose. I'm still picking JA will quit pre election based on poll numbers but then again she is so delusional she will probably gloss over that untill a land slide loss sinks in post election and quits then.

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Who is deluded?

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The first, second and third ranks of The Praetorian Guard, that’s who. Keep it up, you might make centurion eventually.

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It is not a supply chain issue it is a demand issue created by excessive government spending.  Covid (mild cold) was the excuse to turn on the printing press, kick the can down the road for the recession that is badly needed to curb our excessive speculation brought about by low interest rates.  New Zealand was simply paid to fear and the government certainly did not waste this so called crisis.

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Yes, and Covid was such a success they're about to try it again...

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/07/health/monkeypox-masks-cdc.html

Monkeypox Can Be Airborne, Too

An abrupt change in C.D.C. guidance underscores a little-known phenomenon: On occasion, monkeypox can be transmitted through aerosols, similar to the coronavirus.

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Indeed, some commentators continue to confidently assert the flat-Earth theory and the Ptolemaic view of the orientation of the solar system. But that doesn't make them right. How is government spending implicated in the international supply chain crisis from Covid, fuel cost hikes from the war in Ukraine, and closer to home, the supermarket and building supply monopolies?

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