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More mortgage rate cuts by more banks shifts who has the lowest rates, as banks jockey for position in a very competitive marketplace because new loan growth is quite limited

Personal Finance / analysis
More mortgage rate cuts by more banks shifts who has the lowest rates, as banks jockey for position in a very competitive marketplace because new loan growth is quite limited
BNZ sign

Late Monday Westpac made its responding cuts to its fixed rate card.

Now BNZ has chimed in with its version. And Heartland Bank has also announced reductions.

All this means that BNZ has now joined Kiwibank with the lowest carded offer for a six month fixed term.

Kiwibank retains the lowest rate for a one year fixed term.

All main banks are on 5.19% for 18 months. But ICBC offers 4.99% for that term.

4.99% is now almost universal from main banks for a two year term, except Kiwibank.

ANZ and BNZ now have the lowest three year rate.

Westpac has the lowest four and five year rates.

All these lower rates are only possible because term deposit rates are being pushed lower to 'pay' for the home loan drops. Wholesale rates are just not shifting in this same way.

Overall however the key one year rate in the 5.19% to 5.29% range is back to levels we last saw in September 2022.

The reader-reported mortgage rates are less of an advantage now, but please record them if you have them. We need you to record them in the comment section below, which helps us stay on top of this fast-changing corner of the home loan rates market.

And still negotiate. How flexible they may be will depend on the strength of your financials.

One useful way to make sense of the changed home loan rates is to use our full-function mortgage calculator which is below.

And if you already have a fixed term mortgage that is not up for renewal at this time, our break fee calculator may help you assess your options. Break fees will be minimal in a rising market. But they become important in a falling market, like now.

Here is the updated snapshot of the lowest advertised fixed-term mortgage rates on offer from the key retail banks at the moment. 

 Fixed, below 80% LVR 6 mths   1 yr   18 mth  2 yrs   3 yrs  4 yrs  5 yrs 
as at February 25, 2025 % % % % % % %
               
ANZ 5.89 5.29 5.19 4.99 5.29 5.99 5.99
current reader-reported rates 5.79 5.15 5.12 4.99 5.29    
ASB  5.89 5.25 5.19 4.99 5.35 5.79 5.79
current reader-reported rates 5.85 5.25 5.15 4.99 5.29 5.69 5.69
5.79
-0.10
5.29
-0.26
5.19
-0.20
4.99
-0.30
5.29
-0.30
5.69 5.79
current reader-reported rates 5.69 5.24 5.12 4.99      
Kiwibank 5.79 5.19   5.19 5.59 5.79 5.89
current reader-reported rates              
Westpac 5.89
-0.10
5.29
-0.20
5.19
-0.10
4.99
-0.30
5.39 5.39 5.39
current reader-reported rates              
               
Bank of China  5.85 5.49 5.35 5.25 5.49 5.49 5.49
China Construction Bank 5.99 5.57 5.39 5.44 5.59 6.40 6.40
Co-operative Bank (*=FHB only) 5.89 5.39* 5.49 5.49 5.69 5.79 5.79
Heartland Bank   5.25
-0.24
5.19
-0.20
5.19
-0.20
5.35
-0.10
   
ICBC  5.89 5.29 4.99 5.19 5.39 5.49 5.49
  SBS Bank 6.09 5.69 5.49 5.49 5.59 5.79 5.79
  5.89 5.35 5.49 5.29 5.59 5.79 5.89

Fixed mortgage rates

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Daily swap rates

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Source: NZFMA
Source: NZFMA
Source: NZFMA
Source: NZFMA
Source: NZFMA
Source: NZFMA
Source: NZFMA

Comprehensive Mortgage Calculator

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23 Comments

And with another OCR cut expected only weeks away, we could see 4.75 or even less before Easter.

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1

This isn't how term mortgage rates (1yr+) work.  The 25 point cut is already priced into the term mortgages (in fact 28 points is priced), so if the 25 point occurs, all other things being equal, term mortgage rates won't move.  What will happen, is that the floating and 6mth rates will drop and if the easings turn out the way they are currently expected, we will end up having a mortgage curve that has a similar rate from 6 mths to 3yrs sitting around the 5% level.  Current pricing for the next 4 RBNZ meetings is approximately -28 points, -16 points, -10 points and -7 points, totalling 61 points.  This would bring the OCR down to 3.14%.  Obviously it will end up being either 3% or 3.25% depending on what happens in the next few months. This is a level where the RBNZ feels that the neutral rate is.  If the rate ends up being 3.25%, you would expect that the mortgage curve would sit somewhere between 4.75% and 5.25%.  The curve will be positive (i.e. longer terms will be higher than shorter terms) due to the term premium of the swap curve that the banks price off.  So in summary, unless expectations for the economy change for the worse, don't expect significantly lower rates than the 4.99% 2 year currently being offered. This rate is ~150 points over the current 2 yr swap rate and the banks don't tend to go much below this.

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8

superb explanation, thank you 

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0

I think we'll see sub 4 rates by year end.

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1

What is your logic?

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0

ANZ app:

6m: 5.79%
12m: 5.15%
18m: 5.12%
2y: 4.99%
3y: 5.29%

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1

There will be rates starting with 3 in six months time 

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3

I really doubt that (unless there is a black swan again)

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4

I doubt that too, I think we might drop to 4.19ish

They are saying they will be making only minor tweaks in the next few reviews.

Banks don't seem to be dropping the full value of the cut as well.

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1

They do off the floating rates, but see above from Stirtrader as how the longer rates work

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2

Fixed mortgage rates are premised on wholesale rates not OCR.  

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0

I did expect a bigger drop considering 50bp off OCR,

 

Seems like we only dropped 20-25bp at best,

 

Given the state of the economy I am surprised that 5 year rates arent better.

Why don't banks take a risk and try to lock in mortgages for longer?

5.39 is terrible value

 

We are a long way away from higher interest rates IMO

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1

Given the state of the economy and extremely unstable international political scenario, it is completely expected that banks won't want to take a risky bet for the 5y rates.

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0

Fixed rates are dependent on wholesale rates and to a lesser extent on marketing.  If the wholesale rates for longer terms were lower then the mortgage rates would be lower.  Banks are risk adverse - they don't gamble on their shareholders' behalf.  If a customer takes out a 5year mortgage, bank borrows that for 5 years at the current rate.

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0

Mortgage interest rates won't fall as far or as fast as people think

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3

It's already fallen alot faster than people had thought 6 or so months ago...

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2

From the headline...."new loan growth is quite limited". Combine limited new loan growth with the current high levels of stock and it's hard to assume anything other than flat/declining house prices over the coming months. 

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2

lol rearview mirror thinking. Look forward...

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0

ASB- new lending offer 24/2:

6m: 5.85%

1y: 5.25%

18m: 5.15%

2y: 4.99%

3y: 5.29%

4y: 5.69%

5y: 5.69%

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1

There seems to be a general lack of understanding of how this works. The banks have already priced in the next two OCR drops so unless anything changes interest rates won't fall much from here.

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4

They can always cut savings rates, to cut mortgage rates... which they are already are. The banks are keen to lend & increase market share $$$.

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1

Correct, and lack of knowledge re where funding comes from... banks are front running the indicated cuts to win business...

There is no growth growth growth in mortgage new lending compared with the Ponzi's past, hence they are also willing to cut their margin a bit to keep business.

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3

People were saying this three weeks ago about the last OCR cut,  yet here we are.

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2