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Westpac surprises the home loan market with a big cut to its fixed three year rate, taking it below 5% to the lowest any mortgage rate has been in 27 months

Personal Finance / analysis
Westpac surprises the home loan market with a big cut to its fixed three year rate, taking it below 5% to the lowest any mortgage rate has been in 27 months

In a surprising move (for us), Westpac has launched a 4.99% fixed home loan rate, the first time a fixed rate has dipped below 5% since late October 2022. Westpac last had a sub 5% fixed rate in September 2022.

That involves a -60 bps drop for that term.

They have also trimmed other fixed rates by either -5 bps or -10 bps for terms 1 year to 4 years.

At the same time, Westpac has trimmed most popular term deposit rates, but mostly by only -5 bps.

So the -60 bps cut really stands out.

Borrowers have not been attracted to fixing this long recently. But a 4.99% rate may get some thinking. It certainly deserves attention, and some renewed consideration.

We reviewed the current state of the mortgage market earlier today and you can find that here. Our 'gentle slide' analogy didn't age well.

The reader-reported mortgage rates are fluid but may be less frequent now, so please record them if you have them. We need you to record them in the comment section below, which helps us stay on top of this fast-changing corner of the home loan rates market.

And still negotiate. How flexible they may be will depend on the strength of your financials.

One useful way to make sense of the changed home loan rates is to use our full-function mortgage calculator which is below.

And if you already have a fixed term mortgage that is not up for renewal at this time, our break fee calculator may help you assess your options. Break fees will be minimal in a rising market. But they become important in a falling market, like now.

Here is the updated snapshot of the lowest advertised fixed-term mortgage rates on offer from the key retail banks at the moment. 

 Fixed, below 80% LVR 6 mths   1 yr   18 mth  2 yrs   3 yrs  4 yrs  5 yrs 
as at February 5, 2025 % % % % % % %
               
ANZ 5.99 5.57 5.39 5.44 5.59 6.19 6.19
current reader-reported rates              
ASB  5.99 5.54 5.34 5.29 5.59 5.79 5.79
current reader-reported rates              
5.99 5.55 5.39 5.29 5.59 5.69 5.79
current reader-reported rates              
Kiwibank 5.99 5.55   5.29
-0.16
5.59
-0.10
5.79 5.89
current reader-reported rates              
Westpac 5.99 5.54
-0.05
5.34
-0.05
5.29
-0.10
4.99
-0.60
5.49
-0.10
5.59
current reader-reported rates              
               
Bank of China  5.95 5.55 5.35 5.39 5.49 5.49 5.49
China Construction Bank 5.99 5.57 5.39 5.44 5.59 6.40 6.40
Co-operative Bank (*=FHB only) 5.99 5.49* 5.49 5.49 5.69 5.79 5.79
Heartland Bank   5.49 5.39 5.39 5.45    
ICBC  5.99 5.55 5.39 5.59 5.59 5.59 5.59
  SBS Bank 6.09 5.79 5.49 5.49 5.59 5.79 5.79
  5.99 5.59 5.59 5.45 5.59 5.79 5.89

Fixed mortgage rates

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Daily swap rates

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Source: NZFMA
Source: NZFMA
Source: NZFMA
Source: NZFMA
Source: NZFMA
Source: NZFMA
Source: NZFMA

Comprehensive Mortgage Calculator

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62 Comments

Wow, interest rates below 5% in Q1 of 2025, far sooner than expected. My 1st thought is how long will it last.

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7

It possibly won't last for too long.

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1

You don't say why. Ergo, I'll ignore you.

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0

A good news

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4

Quite the stunt by Westpac clearly intended to generate headlines. I still don't think this will spark a fire from the cold, dead ashes of the NZ housing market. It isn't going to entice the young, motivated and skilled that are leaving for Australia to remain chained to an overpriced shitbox in New Zealand. None of my renting colleagues (all of whom have a household income of 300k+) are remotely interested in taking the plunge on a NZ house.

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11

God himself couldn't resus the house market right now. This is but another fart in the wind.

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3

@Toye - they said not even god could sink the titanic either - guess what 

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4

Wonder if s/he could sink the NZ property market?

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0

The ship is already sinking and closing off a few compartments isn't going to help much (rate drops).

The band playing on the deck (ala spruikers) ain't helping a thing.

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4

Gotta keep the Ponzi going some how....- we come off 2.99% in June, who knows might be able to refix at that rate again /..sarc

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3

Maybe when COVID-20 comes out

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0

Or Orange Face blows up the financial system...so far on track..

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2

The dreaded Orange Swan event.

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2

To reanimate to Crashing Nz housing markets rotting corpse...... we must have mortgage rates in the low 3.s

 

Above this and the crash roll into 2027.

 

Buyers beware,  to become the bankster useful buying idiot today and it's likely to be negative equity, soon after.

Just ask the burnt Spruikers lurking here.....

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7

@gecko burned spuiker lurking here hahahah - 4.99% is definately starting to breathe - first cash flow to slowly open the door - then capital gains to knock the front door down :)

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5

Quite a long time to fix for. I suspect it will be a relatively short lived offer like the ANZ one late last year.

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3

You can be fairly sure Westpac have priced in a 50bps cut on this one Toye.

Quite a long time to fix for.

to beat this you would need an 18m rate of 4.64% in Q3 2026. is that what Westpac forecast with this 4.99% rate?

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2

They have probably gotten ahead of themselves.

I don't see this one staying long, lets see.

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3

@toye - can you imagine if you were wrong about this what else you can be wrong about ?  few people here are trying get you to "see"  however still you dont 

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1

I saw:

by safeashouses | 1st Sep 23, 9:33am

@averageman.  You going to hold of a bit longer buying your house?  If so I am interested in knowing why?  I am actively following your economic outlook to ensure I also buy in the dip.

And good that I didn't listen.

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1

oh dear, I didn't expect anything under 5%

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0

As per usual, plenty of wrong calls from commentators here. TA said just last week

'If I were borrowing at the moment, I would be hoping for a spike of competition between NZ banks to produce a three year rate close to 5%. While waiting for that I’d probably fix just six months'

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7

@Bigben 4.99 is very close to 5% - poor old TA needs to get it right to  0.01 of a percent for you ?  (or perhaps it was an attempt at humour, if so very funny)

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7

He was suggesting it would be some time away ie many months , not in the next week.

How much do clairvoyants,  i mean economists, get paid again :/ ?

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1

-

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0

@Eschatan - oh sorry yes you right - for Eschaton you need the 0.01 % and the actual day and hour? hahah - 

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3

I think Ben meant the commenters on the articles here (often HFL comments), contrasting that to what TA had put out about a drop to 5%

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1

Wow

I would take this if refinancing now

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9

Yep !

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0

Just called the westpac call centre to refix, as the 3yr rate not showing on the app yet. Was advised to call back on friday, as their system not yet updated to allow them to select that rate! You'd think theyd have systems ready to match whats advertised.

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3

Maybe the rate will disappear tomorrow and you'll never have had the chance to select it :-D

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2

I wonder if the other banks will match it (at least over the phone)

If my bank does I will seriously consider taking it up for the chunk up for refixing now

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0

HM: "I would take this if refinancing now"

With the greatest of respect, HM, that would not be wise.

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0

How come

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0

Are you going to take your own advice from above and say why?

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1

HFL? Crickets and tumbleweeds anyone?

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10

And still negotiate. How flexible they may be will depend on the strength of your financials.

Not sure this statement is accurate, or am i reading it inxorrectly... I think banks care more about the size of the loan and how long a term you've got left , don't they?  They want you on the hook.

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0

Yes but they also want to know you're a good fish with good income, and solid assets they can pinch if you try and wriggle off the hook :)

 

 

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2

They do want you on the hook.

But they have to maintain capital ratios that are acceptable to the RBNZ.

Ergo, they'll lend to fatter - and sillier - fish first, i.e. where their margins are bigger - but their capital ratios are the same.

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0

4.99% for 3 years, right?

Trump's Presidency will last longer, right?

Ain't squat going to happen while there's so much risk, ay?.

I.e. no business borrowing = less activity = less pressure on rates.

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1

HFL ;)

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2

Edited.

Mid 4's by mid 2025.

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3

You may be correct.

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0

I would say circa 5 to 5.25

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0

Does anyone have any insight into when/if test rates will go down? 

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0

Won’t they slowly be shifting down very slightly in parallel with the movement of mortgage rates lower?

They will still be north of 7%, which is too high to kick start property prices

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1

Test rates are most influenced by how much is being borrowed. Borrow less. 

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0

And there we are. I remember an article by Interest of about 3 weeks ago, stating and explaining why interest rates will not drop significantly in the future.  My comment was: "this article is going to age badly"… 

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2

It also happened today... credit for them owning up to it.

We reviewed the current state of the mortgage market earlier today and you can find that here. Our 'gentle slide' analogy didn't age well.

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1

True !

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0

Next chunk of my mortgage rolls off at the end of April, possibly 0.75 ocr cut by then, if we assume the banks have now priced in what is a very likely 0.50 cut this month. I've got my fingers crossed for a 4.99 or lower 1yr rate by April 🤞🏻

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0

The rate curve from westpac shows this is more marketing than risk pricing, unless they have picked some very short term doom that kicks in 2.5 years away, and is solved 3.5 years away...

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1

Looks tempting - but in years 2 and 3 you might think its too high

great timing just before a long weekend so other banks can't react

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1

Might be worth it if you can fix half at this rate for 3yrs and then fix the other half for shorter durations

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0

by Yvil | 5th Feb 25, 2:25pm

Bank retail interest rates will continue to drop, not because of the upcoming OCR cut, but because of the bank's need to write mortgages.  Depositors will pay the price with lower deposit interest rates.

Written before the Westpac announcement.

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1

Yes. Quite astute.

Though I wondered when you wrote it - why do the banks have to keep writing mortgages? Is this just to keep getting new entrants in to replace those getting out (which is very ponzi-like, though I tend to think of the housing market more akin to a pyramid scheme myself)?

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0

 Is this just to keep getting new entrants in to replace those getting out (which is very ponzi-like, though I tend to think of the housing market more akin to a pyramid scheme myself)?

It's just cash flow for the banks (sort of).

You need to replace workers from a company when they leave? (circumstantially), does that make a business a ponzi?

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1

Oh. I thought the interest payments were the banks cashflow. Silly me.

A ponzi uses new depositors to pay dividends to/cash out already participating clients.

Seems very similar to what the banks do (with the added benefit of security) for houses - except the banks leverage up the deposit, which allows enough liquidity for the earlier member to cash out on transaction.

So - what happens when there are no new members to leverage from?

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0

"I thought the interest payments were the banks cashflow"

They certainly are Chaos, but with every month that goes by, more principal and less interest is being paid, and some mortgages get repaid in full.  Hence banks need to continuously write new mortgages...

BTW, I wrote my post at 2:25pm.

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1

Ah right. Gotcha.

And yes.

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0

I have $124k left which rolled of fixed on 31 Jan and currently sitting on floating 7.25 while I wait to see what's going to happen.

I want rid of that in 5 years. The monthly payments are

4.99% - $2,339, 4.29% - $2,357, 7.25% - $2,470

The difference from one end to the other is less than a daily cup of coffee. 

 

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0

I would float all the way for now if I were you so you can pay off the amount whenever you want based on such a small difference.

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0