A review of things you need to know before you go home on Thursday; Westpac ups TD rates, job ads slip, terms of trade very high, KiwiSaver funds worth $47 bln; swaps lower & flatter, NZD slips

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today:

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes today.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
Westpac has added +20 bps to its 6 month term deposit rate taking it to 3.45%, added +15 bps to its 18 month rate taking it to 3.65%. Both new rates are very competitive against their main rivals. Equally relevant, it has equalised rates for all terms whether interest is paid at maturity, monthly or quarterly, or is compounding. FE Investments have changed most rates, trimming their 12, 18 and 24 month offers.

FALLING AWAY
ANZ job ads volumes slipped in February, giving up some of its strong increase the previous month, although they are still +5.4% higher than the same month a year ago. As the economic cycle has matured, growth in job ads has eased to a more gradual pace, in contrast to the breakneck pace set over 2016. There was a marked drop in job ads in the construction, utilities, manufacturing and transport sector, which comprises about a third of job ads.

HIGH, AND STAYING HIGH
Our terms of trade (the relationship between export prices and import prices) pushed on up to a new record high in the December quarter. Don't forget that until September 2017 the previous high had stood since the June quarter of 1973, a 44 year benchmark. Lifting lamb and butter export prices lead the way. Analysts expect this important benchmark to remain at or near these record high levels. It is an interesting position to be in given it is commodity exports that are essentially driving the improvements. It is so 1990s to begrudge rural commodities. Will it last, you ask? Those that ask that never figured this metric would be producing record advantages at this time.

LINKER YIELD UP
Today's $100 mln NZGB linker tender (for inflation-adjusted bonds that mature in 2040), came in with a yield of 2.20% which is up from 2.09% at the previous tender a month ago, but down from 2.37% six months ago. At each coupon payment, CPI inflation is added. As at December 2017 that was 1.6%.

NOT GREAT, BUT NOT TANKING EITHER
In China, the Caixin factory PMI has come in unchanged from January at 51.6; a modest expansion is still underway there. There will be relief at this unofficial data because it contrasts with the pessimistic official data released two days ago. And frankly, this survey has better cred that the official one.

A BIG FUND
The latest data on KiwiSaver fund values was published today as at December 2017.l That shows we now have $47.4 bln invested, up $8.7 bln in 2017 alone (and contributions accounted for $5.9 bln of that). Of the total 53.6% is invested in New Zealand-based assets. However only 48.8% was invested in New Zealand out of the 2017 increment. The local market is too small to take all of this saving without distorting markets here even further. To give a good idea of how distorted local equity markets are, the NZX50 rose +22.8% under the weight of this demand, whereas the ASX200 rose only +8.1%. The S&P500 rose only +19.4%. Other than demand pressure from the KiwiSaver flood, it is hard to see why the NZX rose above these markets. (For comparison, the NZ Super Fund stood at $37.9 bln at December, and it rose by $5.2 bln in 2017. And only 14% of this fund is invested in New Zealand.)

AUSSIE DAIRY ANGST
The Aussie competition watchdog has flagged concerns about the Canadian Saputo take-over of major milk processor Murray Goulburn, saying some farmers may only have the choice of Saputo or Fonterra. If it gets its way, part of Murray Goulburn will need to be hived off to a third party, and that is likely to be a Chinese buyer.

BENCHMARK INTEREST RATES LOWER
Wholesale swap rates have flattened sharply today. The two year is unchanged, the five year is down -1 bp and the ten year is down -3 bps. The UST 10yr is down -3 bps at 2.87% and back where it was on Tuesday. The Aussie Govt 10 yr is down -2 bps to 2.75%. The China 10 yr is also down by -4 bps to 3.86% while the NZ Govt 10 yr is unchanged at 2.97%. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 1.92% today.

BITCOIN DOWN
The bitcoin price is now at US$10,367 or -2.7% lower than this time yesterday.

NZ DOLLAR SLIPS
The Kiwi dollar fell again today. It is now at 71.9 USc, at 93.1 AUc and holding against the euro at 59 euro cents. That puts the TWI-5 just under 73.5 and slipping. The great terms of trade data had no impact on the Kiwi dollar

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