Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
TODAY'S MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
The Police Credit Union cut their one fixed rate.
TODAY'S DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
RaboDirect cut all their rates for terms of 9 months to 5 years. These cuts ranged from -5 to -15 bps.
TABLES TURN
Today's report from QV for January shows average house values dropped in Auckland, with houses in coastal suburbs of the North Shore leading the fall. In other centres prices are rising. Wellington values are increasing at their fastest pace since prior to the previous peak in 2007 and there is good optimism in the Christchurch and Dunedin markets, said QV. Nationally, the QV Index is +12.6% above its level a year ago.
A BREATHER
ANZ's Truckometer data, which looks at commercial activity by tracking heavy and light truck mileage (from the diesel road-user charge returns) suggests January has started off softer than the high activity levels this index reported in December. The two Truckometer indexes more than unwound their December surge in January, returning back to trend. The Heavy Traffic Index. fell 4.3%, while the Light Traffic Index, which leads growth in the economy by six months, fell 1.4% month-on-month.
EQUITY PAIN GROWS
Equity markets slumped in Europe when they opened today, and that was mirrored on Wall Street which shed -3%. China is closed, but the ASX is now down more than -2% (that's a AU$36 bln tumble), with the NZX down -1.4%. Bank shares are big losers.
REFORM ABANDONED
In case you missed it, the Federal Govt in Canberra has flagged full-scale tax reform, dropping its realignment of their GST/income tax bargain. That is a big policy backdown, so what will follow will be talked up but is likely to be just tinkering, a can-kicking exercise.
STABLE?
Aussie business confidence held steady in the face of global market upheaval in January, according the latest NAB business survey.
WHOLESALE RATES SLUMP
Swap rates have fallen sharply today, down in a flattening bias. For one year, they are down -3 bps, for five years they are down -8 bps, and for ten years they are down -9 bps. The 90 day bank bill rate is also lower, down -3 bps to 2.64%.
NZ DOLLAR SLIPS
The Kiwi dollar has slipped to 66 USc today, to 93.8 AUc, and to 58.9 euro cents. The TWI-5 is now at 70.8. Check our real-time charts here.
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30 Comments
'STABLE?
Aussie business confidence held steady in the face of global market upheaval in January, according the latest NAB business survey'
Confidence is not reflected in performance. All Ordinaries is down again ( -2.5% at the time of writing), maintaining the overall downward trend that commenced in May 2015.
Bank shares are big losers.
Couldn't be worse stateside.
After an awful start to 2016, the S&P 500 bank index is at the same level as in the fall of 1996.
Not that it hasn't been a rocky road: The banks doubled over the next 10 years, then crashed amid the financial crisis, before running right back to where they started. And bank investors did enjoy dividends over the years.
But especially compared to an S&P 500 that is up some 170 percent in the same time period, the abject lack of price performance is striking. Read more
The 4 Pillars took a hit today
http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/bank-shares-hammered…
"Last year’s sure thing in credit markets is quickly becoming this year’s nightmare for bond investors.
The riskiest European bank debt generated returns of about 8 percent last year, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data, beating every type of credit investment globally. In less than six weeks this year, those gains have been all but wiped out, even after interest payments."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-09/the-102-billion-of-ba…
Watch to see if the speculators bail en mass.
Cost to ensure?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-09/the-102-billion-of-ba…
I wonder with a vertical rise like that how long and far the trajectory will keep it up. With no one wanting to insure the banks that suggests a negative feedback on bank shares?
'Panic situation': Asian stocks tumble amid fears of new global recession
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/feb/09/panic-situation-as-asia…
"The Nikkei dived 5.1% to 16,132.25 in morning trading and extended losses into the afternoon, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 2.6% to 4,946.70. Markets were also down in the Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand and New Zealand. The yen meanwhile briefly soared to a 14-month high against the US dollar."
So 2016, is the game of musical chairs unwinding?
Bonds on the Run
"something scary is going on in financial markets, where bond prices in particular are indicating near-panic."
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/02/09/bonds-on-the-run/?module=Bl…
Maybe a thing to watch today, a "Black Tuesday/wednesday"?
You must have missed all our OBR articles, including this one - http://www.interest.co.nz/bonds/64411/if-bank-failed-and-open-bank-resolution-policy-was-implemented-how-would-it-affect-bank
The info is not hidden, if many ppl stick their head in the sand, well hopefully they get to carry the can.
What will happen though is I think the Govn will step in as the Grey Brigade make it clear they will vote out whomever doesn't pay them back. I am sure WP will be all over that in due course.
Indeed. My understanding of the OBR was obtained exclusively from your articles and their accompanying comments. For which I thank you. Top marks. However a quantum of hits to the page would be attributable to readers following the comments and landing on the article page. No?
Over the years I have been following interest.co.nz there have been many quality articles that never see the light of day. Topics that warrant wider discussion. Particularly on the part of our political representatives
What is remarkable is their profound silence on many such topics, only to have it explode in their faces several years later, accompanied by JK or BE downplaying it as being not worth discussing
You should periodically consider inviting some back-bench second tier pollies to your one-shot-interviews and try and elicit from them their understanding and views. That's if they are permitted
We all know what JK and BE and SJ think - it's not happening - and there ends the story
Two examples come to mind - your "crusades" on foreign exploitation of our company registration system and money laundering - two issues that go to the heart of our economy - treated with political silence
I thought it was a terrible article! It did not explain that depositing money at your bank was no different from making an unsecured loan to a business, and if that business failed, under OBR some of your deposit would be taken off you to re-capitalize the bank, ie a haircut. You would not get that taken money returned to you unless the liquidation of the bank had surplus funds after all secured holders had been paid out (unlikely). Just ask Cyprus depositors how that went.
I would have thought that a balanced article would have a duty to explain the most important part of OBR for its customers in terms of the zero security of a chunk of their capital. It could also have explained that this bail-in plan has been adopted world-wide by Reserve Banks, not just RBNZ.
" bail-in plan has been adopted world-wide by Reserve Banks, not just RBNZ."
Not quite. OBR is unique in the first world in not being accompanied by any protection to savers.
As the RBA says "An essential feature of a well-functioning financial system is its ability to channel funds from savers to borrowers."
and "Confidence in the banking system is therefore important for financial system stability and, to this end, governments and regulatory authorities put in place various legal and regulatory arrangements to support confidence among bank creditors that their funds are secure."
So why is she smiling??
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/76730420/asb-banks-474-milli…
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