Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There are no changes to report today. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
There are no changes to report today either. But we should note that their earlier-reported cut in their RapidSave account became effective today at 3.00% a drop of -20 bps. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE FALLS
Business confidence fell 9 points to +49 in April, while expected own activity fell just 1 point to 48. Most forward-looking activity indicators were sharply lower in the late-month responses. Pricing and cost indicators indicate a margin squeeze from ongoing cost pressures. One-year-ahead inflation expectations were little changed at 2.65%.
THE COMING DCS HIERARCHY
The Reserve Bank is developing a Depositor Compensation Scheme product hierarchy policy, and we explain what it would mean.
A NEW HIGH
Latest Reserve Bank figures show people switching loan providers helped drive mortgage figures in March to levels last seen in 2021.
FHBs TEST THE MARGINS MORE
Our first home buyers report for March shows that they aren't paying more to get a home of their own but more of them are taking out low equity mortgages.
TAKING THE BRANCH TO THE PEOPLE
In a new rural banking trial, Westpac is sending a van between regional towns in rural Southland.
BANKING OMBUDSMAN SCHEME SEEKS CREDIBILITY
Changes at the Banking Ombudsman dispute resolution scheme appear designed to bolster/establish confidence in the impartiality of the scheme. Ex-ACT MP Heather Roy will become the scheme board's second independent director, alongside chairwoman Miriam Dean. Appointing a new independent director follows the recommendation of a recent review. Additionally Auckland University law professor Jodi Gardner is replacing Kenina Court as one the board’s two consumer representatives, as Westpac CEO Catherine McGrath takes over from ANZ's Antonia Watson as one of the board’s two banking representatives. Other board members are Consumer NZ's Jon Duffy and Kiwibank's Steve Jurkovich.
COLDER WEATHER, HIGHER POWER PRICES
Colder South Island weather has pushed up electricity prices there, now almost +30% higher than North Island levels this afternoon.
NZX UPDATE
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.5% so far today. That means it is up +1.1% for the past week, down -8.5% since the start of the year, and little-changed from this time last year. Synlait, Vista, Scales and T&G Global lead the gainers while Ryman, NZME, Tourism Holdings, and Auckland Airport lead the decliners.
MORE HOME LOANS
Bank mortgage books rose +4.2% in the year to March, the fastest expansion since early 2023. But demand for debt by businesses was lower in March than February and uop only +1.7% from a year ago. For rural debt, it fell faster, down -1.9% from a year ago, the steepest year-on-year drop since these records began in 1991. There is a reason - some farmers are flush with cash.
HAVE CASH, WILL PAY DOWN DEBT
Dairy farmers have been paying down their debt fast since September 2024 and they continued that trend in March, with a net repayment of -$273 mln. From September 2024 to March 2025 that is a repayment of -$2.276 bln taking the amount these farmers owe financial institution to under $35 bln. These records began in 2016 and this sector has never owed its lenders less. In the period, dairy debt peaked at $41.7 bln in June 2018. It is a sector that is growing increasingly more financially resilient.
THE TRUMP PANDEMIC REPRISES THE COVID PANDEMIC
Household term deposit balances fell again in March, down -$706 mln on top of the -$482 mln drop in February. That is their first falls since September 2021 and comes even though overall transaction and savings account balances rose. Total household bank balances rose +$1.01 bln in March from February. So that seems to indicate households are now preferring to hold these funds in a very liquid state - reminiscent of the pandemic psychology.
CONFIRMED EITHER WAY
Whichever way you sliced it, Australia's inflation came in at 2.4% in March from a year ago. That was true for the quarterly CPI, and the monthly inflation indicator. Bother were little-changed from the respective prior releases. There's now talk of a post-election rate cut from the current 4.10% cash rate target.
JAPAN'S GAINS SLIP BACK
Japan's industrial production was weakish in March, coming in lower than expected from the prior month to be little-changed from March a year ago. At the same time they reported retail sales +3.1% ahead of the same month a year ago which was lower than expected, also with current weakness from February.
DITTO IN KOREA
Nearby, Korea said their industrial production came in better than expected in March although not as strong as for February. Korean March retail sales however gave back a small bit of the outsided rise in February.
A TAME NET EXPANSION IN APRIL
Once again the official factory PMI for China came in with a small contraction (a definite slowing), while the private Caixin version came in with a small expansion, although a slight slowing. Separately, the official services PMI came in with a slightly better expansion. In all cases, new order levels retreated.
SWAP RATES STILL ON HOLD
Wholesale swap rates might be just a tad softer at the short end today and rising across the longer durations. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 3.42% on Tuesday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -4 bps from yesterday at 4.15%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.63%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is also down -1 bp at 4.51% while today's RBNZ fix was at 4.48% and up +3 bps from Tuesday. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.17% and down -5 bps from yesterday at this time. Their 2yr is down -3 bps at 3.66%, so that positive curve has dipped to +51 bps.
EQUITIES MIXED BUT MINOR
The NZX50 is down -0.5% in late Wednesday trade. The ASX200 however is up another +0.2% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up +0.2% in early Wednesday trade. Hong Kong has dipped -0.1% at its open, while Shanghai has dipped -0.2% at its open. Singapore has opened up +0.4%. On Wall Street, the S&P500 was up +0.6% at the end in Tuesday trade.
OIL LOWER AGAIN
The oil price is down another -US$1.50 from yesterday at just under US$60/bbl in the US, and just under US$63/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE TICKS UP FROM LOW
The carbon price is has recovered yesterday's fall, up +$3 to NZ$48/NZU but still on quite low volumes. The next official carbon auction is on Wednesday, June 18, with a $68 floor price. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint. (We have fixed the charting error.)
GOLD EASES
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$14 from this time yesterday, now at US$3306/oz.
NZD SLIPS
The Kiwi dollar is down -40 bps from this time yesterday, now at 59.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 92.7 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 52.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is still just under 67.8, down a bit more than -20 bps from this time yesterday.
BITCOIN UNCHANGED
The bitcoin price is virtually unchanged from this time yesterday, now at US$94,686 (+US$28). Volatility of the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/- 0.9%.
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16 Comments
Dear Interest.co
this week several articles appear to be missing open comments fields. Not sure if this is intentional?
For eg.
Or they open late.
I've wondered if it was deliberate - it's been more than a week.
The only reason I could come up with, was that they want people to read the item ex the comments - then once the wave subsides....
The comments are often the best part, sadly. Often deeper, for sure.
But maybe I'm out-thinking it - maybe it's a software glitch.
I was thinking the editorial team would appreciate it if we read the articles first, rather than scrolling straight down to the comments section to see who has been triggered.
Everyone loves a good pearl clutch
I suspect- if intentional - that it's not aimed at us comment-makers.
More likely an attempt to 'guide' passive readership away from the comment-thread.
It's a new site. News is fairly fleeting.
What's often discussed is a wider arc. The exact nature, probably too hard to say. We both seem to agree on a trajectory in rough terms, but really we're just watching a car crash in slow motion.
At some point the story doesn't really matter, it's the energy, intention, attention, whatever you might call it, that we bring to bear on the life unfolding around us, in spite of the story.
There’s some poetic irony in publishing an article titled 'What even is Austerity?' while disabling the comments section for people that pay to comment.
“What you call austerity is what I might call efficiency.” Perhaps then, taking a leaf out of David Cameron’s book.
Might be an epitaph for Australia?
"National and Labour have created a Fiscal Crisis in NZ. There's only one way out. Here it is, in joint work with former Finance Minister Sir Roger Douglas" How to Change the Welfare State from a Taxation to a Savings Based Model
"The fiscal bottom line still appears to be that things are no better, in structural cyclically-adjusted terms, than they were 18 months ago, and may even be worse. We should no doubt be thankful for small mercies – this morning’s announcement may be one – but the outstanding imbalances are large and do not yet seem to being addressed seriously. Those imbalances are bad, both absolutely and in international comparison terms. They are political choices. Unfortunate ones."
Reddell and Douglas are both talking shyte.
Both are blindsided by economics-speak (there are no limits to growth; all is on the up, trust us it will trickle down). The problem is that physics is sinking that boat, as it was always going to do.
Sad that Douglas still gets traction, sad we haven't matured as a society, enough to move our thinking on.
Please note, we are still fighting the Comment gremlins. Unfortunately, solutions that work on our staging server don't work when deployed. We apologise for this bad situation. We are still working on it; it is a real struggle at present.
Thanks for posting
:)
Good to know that, no worries
Why must reality be less sexy than conspiratorial imagination ☹️
Well, it explains divorce...
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