Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
The Wairarapa Building Society (WBS) cut fixed rates today. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
UnityMoney, WBS, and the Heretaunga Building Society all trimmed rates slightly today. Some big influences on where these rates are headed are discussed here. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
"SHOP AROUND"
Insurance Council says a survey they commissioned shows a 'low number' of us consider changing insurance providers and urges people to shop around.
$455 MLN OF 'VALUE' (?)
Although real estate agencies' commission revenue has improved substantially over the last two years, there's been very little long-term growth. Overall, real estate agencies earned an estimated $455 mln in residential sales commissions in Q1-2025. (This doesn't include what auctioneers earned, on top, and whether a place sold or not.)
TEACHERS TO GET THIR FEES PAID
The Government has committed to paying the $550 registration and renewal fees for around 40,000 fulltime and part time school and early learning teachers. The cost will be $53 mln for the three years to 2028. Interestingly the PPTA union welcomed the support, while the NZEI refrained from acknowledging it.
NZX UPDATE
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.7% so far today. That means it is up +0.3% for the past week, and down -7.8% since the start of the year, and up only +0.8% from this time last year. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is the big mover up today. In addition, Infratil, SkyCity Entertainment, and Oceania lead today's gainers, with Mainfreight, Scales , Stride, and Goodman topping the decliners
TWO MORE BUSINESS DAYS
The NZ Financial Markets Association has changed it rulings on what is a "business day" for financial markets. It now says any transaction on a provincial Anniversary Day public holiday will be good business days, for the purposes of that transaction. That includes the Auckland and Wellington Anniversary Day public holidays and will now be good business days for transacting and settling in our wholesale over-the-counter financial markets.
'SUSTAINABLE FINANCE' STILL GROWING
According to Fitch, finance markets in Australia and New Zealand that feature 'sustainable finance' products are still developing and showing signs of growth, driven by various factors accelerating their progress. Key drivers include efforts to adapt to climate change, aligning with global sustainability trends and responding to the increasing frequency of natural disasters. The Trump pushback elsewhere hasn't halted the demand for this type of financing or expansions in these markets.
PANEL DISCUSSION
For those wondering about apocalyptic climate outcomes, three speakers at an Otago University event will be for you. Their panel discussion is on May 12, and features 'inveterate protester' Rosemary Penwarden, retired associate Professor Bob Lloyd, and Steve Keen, the 'controversial economist', also former associate professor, and unsuccessful political candidate (who famously lost a bet on house prices). This event is being held by Wise Response, PDK's favoured activist group.
MORE CASES, MORE DISPUTES, HIGH RESOLUTION RATE
The Banking Ombudsman Service said between 1 January and 31 March 2025, they received 1,479 cases, up +3% on the previous quarter. They say they resolved 94% of complaints through their early resolution service. Disputes were up +18% on the previous quarter.
SWAP RATES STILL ON HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed at the short end again today' maybe a bit softer at longer durations. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 3.45% on Thursday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -3 bops from this morning at 4.16%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.66%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 4.51% while today's RBNZ fix was at 4.48% and down -10 bps from Thursday. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.24% and down -1 bp from this morning. Their 2yr is unchanged at 3.76%, so that positive curve remains at +48 bps, little-changed.
EQUITIES FIRMER LOCALLY WEAKER REGIONALLY
The NZX50 is up +0.9% in late Monday trade to start the week. The ASX200 is up +0.8% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up +0.5% in early Monday trade. Hong Kong however is down -0.3% at its open, while Shanghai is down -0.1% at its open. Singapore has opened down -0.5%. On Wall Street, the S&P500 ended its Wednesday up +1.7% in some sort of relief rally. Wall Street futures trade suggests it will open tomorrow little-changed on the S&P500.
OIL LITTLE-CHANGED
The oil price is little-changed from this morning at just under US$63/bbl in the US, and just over US$66.50/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE DROPS
The carbon price is has fallen sharply today, down -$2.50 to NZ$48/NZU but on skinny volumes. That is its lowest since early June 2024. The next official carbon auction is on Wednesday, June 18, with a $68 floor price. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD DIPS AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$38 from this morning, now at US$3280/oz, and well off its highs.
NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from this time yesterday, now at 59.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 93.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 52.4 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is just under 68, little-changed from this morning.
BITCOIN LITTLE-CHANGED NET
The bitcoin price is down -0.8% from this morning, now at US$93,623. But it has been volatile. From 9:40am to 1:40 pm today, this price fell -US$1590 or -1.7%. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/- 0.8%.
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30 Comments
T'ain't just climate outcomes.
W/R is about the Limits to Growth.
Steve Keen has been interviewed here in the past: https://www.interest.co.nz/category/people/steve-keen
KKR and Capital Group received approval from the SEC to offer two new credit funds specifically designed for retail investors.
- $1,000 minimum investment
- 0.84% fees (no performance fees)
- 40% private credit allocation
Question is why does KKR suddenly want to become mates with the little people?
https://www.privatedebtinvestor.com/capital-group-kkr-receive-sec-appro…
Global wine consumption back to 1961 levels. Never thought of wine as a 'nice to have' as its arguably value for money for boozers. And while volumes are falling, there is a trend toward “drinking less, but better.” Consumers are willing to pay more for higher-quality wines, which has kept export values relatively high despite lower volumes. Nevertheless, wine makers will have to produce better qlty at mass market to survive.
Major traditional markets like the US, France, and China saw significant declines, with the US dropping 5.8% and France 3.6% year-on-year. China’s wine consumption has contracted dramatically, falling from 15.0 million hectoliters in 2019 to 5.5 million in 2024.
https://www.decanter.com/wine-news/global-wine-consumption-falls-to-six…
France was the single biggest contributor to last year’s decline in volume, with wine production falling 24% to 36.1 million hl. Italy increased output 15% to 44.1 million hl, overtaking its neighbour as the world’s biggest wine producer.
Wow. The traditional countries must have been throwing it back in 1961. World population has more than doubled since then as well.
Aldi Italy has been selling Aussie wine and people are actually buying it. Lowest prices around AUD15, but at times they'll throw it out at AUD10. Aldi Italy regularly features other local and regional wines in the €2.50–€4.00 (AUD4.40 - 7.10) range, especially from southern Italian regions such as Sicily, Apulia, and Abruzzo. These wines are typically simple table wines, both red and white, designed for everyday consumption.
The carbon price chart linked to has a weird C shape curve going back in time
Check out this little bargain coming to market
-250m2 house
- close to transport
- 6 bedrooms
Only $110k, or half a Bitcoin
https://www.facebook.com/groups/cheaphousesjapan/posts/1370373017508084/
" and Steve Keen, the 'controversial economist', also former associate professor, and unsuccessful political candidate (who famously lost a bet on house prices). This event is being held by Wise Response, PDK's favoured activist group."
But not a psychologist
Wise Response included an eminent NZ psychologist, and I hoped they might explain ways to get what is a very simple message, across.
My takeaway is that there isn't one; that as a species we're predominantly flawed thinkers. Interestingly, I emphatically include DC in the 'flawed thinking' list - despite the gentleperson-ly mention and exposure given. Picking points to support your POV seems to be hard to resist (I've just waded my way through a Krugman book and a Schiff one, in a purposeful effort to listen to all 'sides'; few bother).
My takeaway is that there isn't one; that as a species we're predominantly flawed thinkers.
It's thinking in itself that's flawed, the rest of the universe (that we've been able to observe) operates on intuition, right down to small particle level.
Even when we look at our own personal decision making, endless rumination and contemplation rarely manages better answers than on the spot gut instincts. The "thinking" is usually just a waking dream.
Goodness, how are out of touch are the "Wise Group"? The sky didn't fall on our head - we just fell out of bed.
"...When young people don’t date or marry or start families, that’s the bottleneck coming for the most basic human institutions of all.
And when, because people don’t pair off and reproduce, nations age and diminish and die away, when depopulation sweeps East Asia and Latin America and Europe, as it will — that’s the last squeeze, the tightest part of the bottleneck, the literal die-off.
This isn’t just a normal churn where travel agencies go out of business or Netflix replaces the VCR. Everything that we take for granted is entering into the bottleneck. And for anything that you care about — from your nation to your worldview to your favorite art form to your family — the key challenge of the 21st century is making sure that it’s still there on the other side.
That challenge is made more complex by the fact that much of this extinction will seem voluntary. In a normal evolutionary bottleneck, the goal is surviving some immediate physical threat — a plague or famine, an earthquake, flood or meteor strike. The bottleneck of the digital age is different: The new era is killing us softly, by drawing people out of the real and into the virtual, distracting us from the activities that sustain ordinary life, and finally making existence at a human scale seem obsolete.
Languages will disappear, churches will perish, political ideas will evanesce, art forms will vanish, the capacity to read and write and figure mathematically will wither, and the reproduction of the species will fail — except among people who are deliberate and self-conscious and a little bit fanatical about ensuring that the things they love are carried forward."
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/19/opinion/extinction-technology-cultur…
There will be remnants. They've mapped low fertility and isolated it down to technology penetration (I.e. territories with low uptake of the internet and smartphones still have replacement level fertility).
The remainders will be lower tech, like the aboriginies of Australia, who've managed to exist as a culture (and without over depleting their environment) for some 80,000 years, while most civilisations have risen and fallen.
Nature has the last say. Or, expect some countries to start cloning people - which nature will probably have something to say about also.
Low fertility is more about the efforts to ensure general education of women than technology.per se. The obverse result being typically in countries riven by religious fundamentalists &/or on patriarchal power & control trips
There's several attributing factors, female education and employment being one, but the largest common denominator is technology adoption; people are forgoing forming romantic relationships in favour of experiencing life via a glass screen.
So even countries with higher rates of religiosity are falling prey to the same phenom of low birth rates. India for instance is still highly religious with a decent amount of patriarchal dominance in its culture, but it's birth rate is now below replacement level.
"There are three major reasons for the rapid decline in the global fertility rate:
- the empowerment of women — increased access to education and increased labor market participation
- declining rates of child mortality
- rising costs of bringing up children, with the decline of child labor
Half of males under 25 have never asked a female out on a date in person.
Where did that assertion come from? Any links?
There's quite a lot of data being formed about how lonely/single Gen Z is, particularly males:
https://www.mystateline.com/news/national/almost-half-of-young-men-have….
https://aibm.org/commentary/gen-zs-romance-gap-why-nearly-half-of-young…
https://www.psychologytoday.com/nz/blog/living-single/202008/half-of-al…
Or just witness how many of them spend most of their time; adolescent pregnancy, alcohol consumption, etc is going extinct. Having a relationship with another human involves a lot more effort than being fed little shots of dopamine from a computing device.
LOL, Over approx 45years I've been married to 2 women + another serious relationship who all approached me first
Not all of us can look like David Hasselhoff.
I look more like Mr Magoo
"and without over depleting their environment" That is the romantic view of aboriginals in Australia. All Australian land mammals, reptiles, and birds weighing more than 100 kilograms, and six of the seven genera with a body mass of 45 to 100 kilograms were wiped in within a few thousand years. It doesn't take many people on the organic carnivore diet to wipe out an ecosystem despite what the green grifters tell you.
"We record high levels of the dung fungus Sporormiella, a proxy for herbivore biomass, from 150,000 to 45,000 years ago, then a marked decline indicating megafaunal population collapse, from 45,000 to 43,100 years ago, placing the extinctions within 4,000 years of human dispersal across Australia"
https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms14142
Nothing romantic about it, megafauna are slow moving and usually low in population levels.
Vs how we live, which manages not to discriminate on how large or numerous a species is for us to wipe it out.
How dare those greenies make us feel bad about ourselves.
So one can wipe out all the megafauna without overly depleting the environment? Rather than than indiscriminate species wipe out how we live now is to bringing species back from extinction. Have a read up on Takahe.
So one can wipe out all the megafauna without overly depleting the environment?
Did Australia become uninhabitable for humans because of this?
It's not a hard concept. Complex civilisations ultimately fail, because of the large environmental imbalances required to sustain them. Those that stick around longer, have to live in a way that's in more cohesion with the rest of nature.
Also works pretty well for interpersonal and commercial relationships
But even Japan is being overtaken – or undertaken - by South Korea, which recently broke all records for low fertility. The country now has a TFR of just 0.8, which means that ‘one hundred grandparents will produce 40 children, who will in turn create 16 grandchildren,’ so that in two generations, 84% of the population will disappear.
As one Twitter wit put it, ‘in 2100, Koreans will be remembered as a quasi-mythical people who emerged from a period of violent division, made TVs 96,000% cheaper and then inexplicably vanished.’
Not 'inexplicably'.
The reason was overshoot.
One of the vehicles was peddlers of bu--sh-t.
Some not so far from here.
Painter mounts a sound case - no need to add anything, he nailed it.
It's all perfect
The gatekeepers of technology have engineered it so everyone's attentions are fixated on screens.
This allows for maximum monetization.
But it also means the lofty valuations of these companies will never be realized, because by the time profits provide a return relative to the share values, your wonderful attention algorithms have meant no new customers have been bred
Guess they'll have to try and make us live forever instead
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