Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
NBS (Nelson Building Society) took a tick off its 2 year foxed rate to 4.97%, the lowest for that term for any institution. WBS (Wairarapa Building Society) cut its floating rate to 6.95%. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
SBS announced cuts to all its TD rates, effective tomorrow with every term 6 months and longer all at 4.00%. NBS cut all its TD rates for 18 months or shorter and it now has no rates over 4%.TSB cut is savings account rates today, generally by -25 bps. MCF cut all its rates, effective today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
RURAL PRODUCTION DRIVES SHARP TRADE RECOVERY
Bumper exports of dairy (+35%), meat (+34%) and fruit (+74%) give NZ its biggest monthly goods trade surplus since the pandemic. Vehicle imports are falling at the same time. That monthly trade surplus nearly hit +$1 bln. But for the year to March, the annual trade deficit was -$6.1 bln. For reference, in the year ended March 2024 the deficit was -$10.0 bln, so a $4 bln improvement in 12 months.
TRADE BALANCE SHIFTS
Our trade surplus with the US fell based on more imports. Our trade surplus with Australia was little changed. Our trade deficit with Japan shrank sharply to zero. Our trade deficit with South Korea shrank sharply from fewer car imports. Our trade surplus with China grew on more exports and stable imports. Exports to China were 19.4% of all exports in March, lower than the 21.2% for the full year, so our dependence on China is retreating recently. (For comparison, Australia is 27.3% dependent on China in March, 33.7% for the full year. These are receding too.)
HD FOR INSIDER TRADING
Kevin Young, a former treasury accountant with Heartland Bank, has been sentenced to six months home detention and ordered to pay a fine of $11,241, in relation to three charges of insider trading brought against him by the FMA.
NZX UPDATE
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.9% today. That means it is down -0.1% for the past week, and down -8.1% since the start of the year, and up +1.3% from this time last year. Vital Healthcare, Auckland International Airport, Port of Tauranga, and Serko are the biggest gainers today with Mainfreight, Kathmandu, Infratil, and Gentrack leading the decliners.
SIMPLIFICATION AGREED
The Northern Regional Council today ok'd the full takeover of MMH, as part of its absorption of Northport.
VOTING STARTS IN AUSTRALIA
In Australia, hundreds of early voting centers are opening progressively across the country from today, Tuesday April 22, and will run up to and including Friday, 2 May. The official election day is Saturday, May 3, 2025. In New Zealand you can vote at the Auckland consulate at 188 Quay Street, Auckland, or the High Commission at 72-76 Hobson Street
Thorndon, Wellington.
MARGINAL TOSS-UP?
Worth watching in the Aussie election is whether Liberal Party leader Peter Dutton can hold his own seat. The electorate of Dickson, north-west of Brisbane, is part outer-suburban mortgage belt, part rural, and is the most marginal electorate in the state.
SWAP RATES STILL ON HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed at the short end, higher at the long end today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 3.48% on Thursday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +2 bps at 4.26%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.66%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +6 bps at 4.59% while today's RBNZ fix was at 4.58% and up +4 bps from Thursday. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.41% and up +1 bp from this morning. Their 2yr is down -1 bps at 3.78%, so that positive curve is now at +63 bps.
EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 is down -0.5% in late Tuesday trade to start the week. However the ASX200 is little-changed in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened down -0.1% in early Tuesday trade. Hong Kong is little-changed at its open, while Shanghai is up +0.4% at its open. Singapore has opened up +1.6%. On Wall Street, the S&P500 ended its Monday down -2.4% in a tough environment, although that wasn't its low point for the day. The "Sell America" trade is strong today.
OIL SLIPS IN USD
The oil price is down slightly from this morning and now just under US$63/bbl in the US, and just under US$66.50/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE STILL NEAR ITS RECENT LOW
The carbon price is +50c firmer today, now at NZ$50/NZU. The next official carbon auction is on Wednesday, June 18, with a $68 floor price. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD HITS YET ANOTHER HIGH
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$58 from this morning, now at US$3475/oz, a new high, up another +1.7%.
NZD SAYS UP
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this morning, now at 60.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 93.6 AUc. Against the euro we are also little-changed at 52.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 68.1, up +10 bps from this time morning.
BITCOIN UP
The bitcoin price is up +1.6% from this morning's open, now at US$88,237. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.1%.
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23 Comments
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$58 from this morning, now at US$3475/oz, a new high, up another +1.7%.
Now here's where it gets interesting. With this gold rally, the market value of US official gold is up to 10% of the value of foreign-held USTs.
In 1989 it was 20% and the long-term average is 40%.
In 1980 it was 135%.
So it could be that gold is surging on a coming monetary reset but most people think they have "missed the trade." The real miss would be mistaking revaluation for a trade.
Imagine buying Gold at USD 1,950 !
I was buying gold before the GFC for $570 USD
Its the same every crisis, its at its high....
It seems to deliver what property Spruikers say... It only gores up.
Did you stop buying at $1950 ?
It's all really temporary
If you're not using that gold value to improve your productivity, you'll end up having to spend it to survive.
If you're not using that gold value to improve your productivity, you'll end up having to spend it to survive.
Where is this wisdom from P? One of the dog-eared, photocopied manuals from the seminars?
It's like a community theater production of Glengarry Glenn Ross.
Greshams law?
If you're just storing money, it's not doing anything. If you want to make more money, you have to put your existing money to work. If you're not making money, you're spending money to survive.
I imagine this is a lost concept on you.
If you're just storing money, it's not doing anything. If you want to make more money, you have to put your existing money to work. If you're not making money, you're spending money to survive.
I imagine this is a lost concept on you.
It's an oversimplification P and shows you don't really understand Gresham's Law. For ex, fiat money is created from debt obligations. Gold is not created from debt obligations. You're talking about fundamentally different forms of money. Gresham’s Law is often oversimplified as “bad money drives out good,” but this only holds under specific legal and economic conditions—mainly when both forms of money are accepted as legal tender at a fixed rate, regardless of their intrinsic value.
In modern economies with floating exchange rates and sophisticated financial systems, the direct application of Gresham’s Law is less relevant. Alternative theories can better explain currency substitution, inflation, and the effects of monetary policy in today’s globalized markets.
None of that addresses what I said.
That’s some very limited thinking…
There’s a concept called a diversified investment portfolio with reserves. You can store value and grow wealth at the same time. Pretty wild stuff!
Now this one will blow your mind… it’s very possible to be running a business in which you’re increasing productivity AND have a diversified investment portfolio with gold reserves.
There’s a concept called a diversified investment portfolio with reserves. You can store value and grow wealth at the same time. Pretty wild stuff!
If you cannot differentiate between 'growing wealth' and 'money supply growth', then you have a problem. In very simplistic terms, 'wealth growth' needs to be at a higher rate than 'money supply growth'. Also, looking at the SPX priced in USD or gold from 2000 goes some way to understanding this.
That’s some very limited thinking…
There’s a concept called a diversified investment portfolio with reserves
We're not really talking about the same thing. If gold was all the money there was, the scenario is different.
Money is flowing into gold currently, because the more productive uses for it are sketchy in this climate.
As that reverses, money will leave gold, back to where it's more productive.
No we’re not. What I’m explaining is that you don’t have to decide between either buying gold or investing in productivity. You can actually do both.
“Money is flowing into gold currently, because the more productive uses for it are sketchy in this climate.
As that reverses, money will leave gold, back to where it's more productive.”
Yes, agreed - and where did I suggest otherwise? Reserves are liquid by design, which means the strategy and composition can shift as conditions change. That’s kind of the point.
Time Lord - ah, no.
Money can only ever be a demand on future energy and resources.
If the stocks of those two are curtailed, or dwindling, then no amount of keystroke-issuance (of digital proxy) is going to 'make you wealthier'. It might make you so relative to someone else - a game of inter-denominational bluff - but the pie itself is not growing.
So your proxy is neither a store of wealth, or a way to grow it, beyond the planetary Limits to Growth.
Sorry if you were taught incorrectly; growth was actually a temporary arrangement.
Appreciate the planetary funeral notice.
But you’re fixated on the limits to growth and telling everyone else they’re wrong for focusing on anything else. Economics be gone!
Meanwhile, I’m just trying to keep up with rising bills during a cost of living crisis - actively dealing with the problems right in front of me.
No, you're dealing with the manifestations of the problems. Not the problems themselves.
If you solve your energy and resource demand issues - you will have no 'rising bills'. (You are looking at ti the wrong way - as do most). I stood back, asked what were the big-picture stocks I needed - and set about acquiring the means to produce them for myself. The result? Almost no 'bills'; haven't had a power bill since 2003, produce half of own food, ec etc.
Proxy is about to implode; too much of it and too little planet remaining; that ratio is geting worse daily (100 million barrels of oil less, every day - you ever see a million barrels, let alone 100 million? Daily?). And your bets are on it not only not getting worse, but getting exponentially 'better', perpetually.
It's intellectually bankrupt. Mind you, there are others who use your method of avoidance...
Again we’re focusing on different things PDK.
While my bills are increasing, I enjoy the full spectrum of life’s pursuits. Many of these cost dollars, some don’t. Call me intellectually bankrupt or maybe I’m simply at a different stage of my life than you are.
I’m interested though - how would you suggest a single Gen Z earning average income, renting with no house deposit becomes less intellectually bankrupt?
I'd tell them t start a political movement aimed at eliminating usury - should be a vote-catcher.
I'd tell them to re-take the Commons (places they could go and things they used to be able - allowed - to do. I did that back then - built a boat and lived on it - but that Commons has now been largely ruled out (someone wants to make money from what was once free; namely anchoring somewhere).
Smaller, I'd tell them to get in small clusters and buy bigger land and do the co-housing or land-sharing thing - always with a written charter upfront, though (the 70s communes which survived functionally, all had formal agreements). And I'd tell them to chuck social media, get some real skills, and share them with other-skilled people.
I enjoy a wider 'spectrum of life's pursuits' than many, and the hours of life gained far outweigh the money they could have been spent 'earning'. I'd also suggest they think outside the box. About everything.
I will take my chances that I will spend the profit
So how has Trumps first 100 days gone so far ?
You can just about make out the Trump effect in the GDPNow graph:
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
ok he seems to be making a difference, there is talk the fed may have to hike...
Euro Dollar demolition time...
"...just about..."🤣
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