Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
So far, no other bank has followed ANZ with fixed rate cuts. Details here. Update: Kiwibank has trimmed their 6 month and 1 year fixed rates. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
And no other bank has cut term deposit rates in the same way ANZ has. Details here. Update: Kiwibank has cut all its term deposit rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
THE DCS IS ALMOST HERE
We have a detailed explainer about the Deposit Compensation Scheme (DCS) with comes into force on July 1, 2025, just 75 days from today, and well within the expiry date of most term deposits.
MORE HOUSES SOLD, AT LOWER PRICES
The REINZ says house sales volumes rose in March but selling prices were down, under pressure from the sheer weight of new listings. So there is still no clear turnaround in the residential property market yet.
FOOD PRICES CLIMB
Grocery and beverage costs push March food prices up +3.5% overall from a year ago and to a 14 month high. Meat, chicken and fish are up +5.3% on the same basis, fruit drinks and soft drinks are up +5.0%. However fruit and vegetables were down -2.7% from a year ago. Despite this, the overall rise is basically what the RBNZ expected.
OTHER PRICES CLIMB TOO
We also got a look at some other elements that will go into the Q1-2025 CPI data out on Thursday. Rents are up +3.3% from a year ago. Petrol prices fell -2% in March, reflecting falls in global oil prices, domestic airfares were up +2%, while international airfares were down -4%, both largely as expected. The cost of an overseas holiday was up nearly +9%, much more than expected. That likely reflects the lower NZ dollar.
NZX UPDATE
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.4% today. That means it is up +1.4% for the past week, but down -7.7% since the start of the year, and up +1.2% from this time last year. There are 32 gainers, led by Ryman (2.0%), Vulcan Steel (+1.8%), Chorus (+1.0%) and Investore (also +1.0%). There are 44 decliners, led by NZME (-6.4%), Serko (-1.9%), Vista (-1.7%) and AirNZ (also down -1.7%). Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare was down -1.0% at 3pm today.
REAL-TIME ESTIMATES FROM HIGH-FREQUENCY DATA
The RBNZ has launched a real-time GDP estimating tool, Kiwi-GDP. The new tool will forecast quarterly economic activity based on high frequency data.
STATING THE OBVIOUS
Hardly surprising, but S&P Global says that the new US tariffs place GM and Ford at risk of a ratings downgrade which would raise the cost of their borrowed funds. They say the tariffs on vehicles, components, steel and aluminium will push US car prices up by as much as +10% and that will in turn depress sales volumes by as much as 1 mln vehicles over two years. Higher costs will make US vehicles even less competitive in export markets.
SWAP RATES STILL ON HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed at the short end today again. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 3.49% on Monday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -9 bps at 4.32%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.66%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down a sharp -15 bps at 4.67% from this time yesterday while today's RBNZ fix was also at 4.67% and down -14 bps from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.35% and down -12 bps from this time yesterday. Their 2yr is down -10 bps at 3.84%, so that positive curve is now less at +51 bps.
EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 is down -0.3% in late Tuesday trade. The ASX200 is up +0.4% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up +0.9% in early Tuesday trade. Hong Kong is unchanged, while Shanghai is down -0.3% at its open. Singapore has opened up +1.5% in a further recovery. On Wall Street, the S&P500 ended its Monday up +0.8% in volatile trade.
OIL RISES SLIGHTLY
The oil price is up +50 USc from yesterday and now just over US$61.50/bbl in the US, and just under US$65/bbl for the international Brent price. The falling USD is behind this adjustment.
CARBON PRICE DIPS FURTHER
The carbon price is -$1 lower today, now at NZ$53/NZU. That is its lowest since August 2024. The next official carbon auction is on Wednesday, June 18, with a $68 floor price. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD SLIPS FROM HIGH
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$14 from this time morning, now at US$3220/oz.
NZD RISES FURTHER
The Kiwi dollar is up another +60 bps from this time yesterday, now at 59.1 USc as the greenback eases again. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps from yesterday at 93.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +70 bps at 52.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is up at 67.6 and a +60 bps rise from this time yesterday.
BITCOIN STILL ON HOLD
The bitcoin price is down -0.4% from this time yesterday, now at US$84,925. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.2%.
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22 Comments
How to de-fund education - a lose-both-ways for the institutions;
The demands for Harvard were similar in nature to those given to Columbia University, which chose to agree in an attempt to get back $400 million in frozen funding. But after the concessions, the federal government did not return the funding and in fact has made further cuts to the New York school.
https://thehill.com/homenews/education/5248195-harvard-trump-demands-fe…
The Ivy League under pressure then. Well two out of eight, so far at least. Very, very exclusive.Very, very expensive. You might think that a good number of ex students would be well situated, the successful wealthy output in other words, high up in society, politics, judiciary, corporates and more, to lobby effectively on behalf of, or even contribute financially to, their old colleges. Apparently not sufficiently. On the other hand would suggest some of the let’s say less glorious colleges will not be all that dismayed by the plight of their exalted contemporaries.
Yes, Harvard endowment fund is over $50 billion - they'll be fine;
https://www.usnews.com/education/best-colleges/the-short-list-college/a…
When we were living in Sth NJ my employer’s business had a high flyer lawyer in NY. He had graduated from the University of Pennsylvania. Over dinner I asked, in entirely green fashion, what was the football record like between Penn and Penn State University who I was sort of following. Quite a sharp intake of breath followed by something like they don’t ever meet. Realised then it would be like asking Lord Nelson himself to sit down to dinner with a shipyard navvy.
LOL. Yes. Which is why I found NZ so refreshing when I got here as it was so egalitarian.
The REINZ says house sales volumes rose in March but selling prices were down
Not really, prices were up in March (see below), the HPI was down, but the HPI is not a price, it's an index. One cannot offer an "HPI" of whatever level to buy a house.
In March, the national median selling price, which does not adjust for changes in the mix of properties sold, was $790,000 in March, up 2.6% compared to February.
From the REINZ website:
"What is the REINZ House Price Index?
Developed in partnership with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the REINZ House Price Index (‘HPI’) shows us the true movements of housing values over time.
It’s used by the Reserve Bank, major banks, economists, business analysts, media commentators and everyday Kiwis, as the most definitive gauge of historic and predicted house prices.
The HPI is best described as an analytics tool and is shown visually as a scale. It measures sale price against a ‘value’ influenced by housing attributes, such as land area, floor area, number of bedrooms, etc.
This creates a single, more accurate measure of housing activity and trends over time rather looking at medians or averages."
https://www.interest.co.nz/charts/real-estate/median-house-price-growth
In March 2024 the national median price was $801,500. In March 2025 the national median price was lower at $790,000.
Indeed !
I think you mean Ryman (2.0%) not 12.
Had to go check why they popped 12%!
They didn't.
Thanks. It was up +2.0% when I wrote that. My fat-finger error. Sorry. Fixed now.
All good. :)
Just saw a meme about the mowbrays and Zuru needing to pay billions in tariffs to dump their plastic shite in the US. So sad.
Just saw a meme about the mowbrays and Zuru needing to pay billions in tariffs to dump their plastic shite in the US. So sad.
Why is it OK for you to touch and use plastic but not the kids? Mean spirited if you ask me.
Fortunate that Lego has production facilities in the US for the North America markets.
There's sort of a good case to be made for not filling our lives with cheap plastic.
But we can't even grasp not filling the sky with soot, so I suppose plastics a tall order.
Either way, the soot and plastics will fill our lungs and brains given enough time. I'm waiting on the body of knowledge to build and expose the level of microplastics in humans sufficient enough to make meaningful change in plastic usage. I hope it comes sooner than later.
Could someone please explain the commercial logic behind carbon credits? It seems totally based on avoiders using a smokescreen funded by speculators with no interest in the environment... who pay people to plant carbon sinks (sic) at the expense of productive land uses.
Then along comes a political wave that doesn't give a Sh** about carbon levels.
Tulip bulbs anyone?
Why did you put 'commercial' before 'logic'?
Logic comes first.
That says you cannot 'offset' dug-up-from-underground carbon. Stupidly (or economically-trained; much the same thing) the Key Govt decided they could 'make a market' out of carbon, and then 'people could make money from it'.
That was so adrift from the truth - which is that energy underwrites money, and that even fossil energy is becoming marginal as a global underwriter. So adding an extra spending expectation, was nuts. Just nuts. And of course it displaced SOMETHING; it couldn't not; we've commandeered most of the commandeer-able planet.
But you won't hear that level of discussion from the MSM.
Why did you put 'commercial' before 'logic'?
Logic comes first.
If you put logic first
Then you don't have anything to sell
Maccy B on fire.
"Without net overseas migration, Australia’s population would not grow, eliminating the need to densify our cities and solving the housing shortage."
“The quickest, cheapest, and simplest solution to Australia’s housing shortage is to limit net overseas migration to a level significantly below the country’s capacity to build housing and infrastructure.”
Of course that might be written off as xenophobic, racist, and bigoted by those who think they're on a higher moral ground.
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2025/04/housing-affordability-worse-wi…
They, like most places, haven't worked out how to depopulate while meeting the current and future obligations.
So instead they'll cram em in.
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