Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Heartland Bank cut its variable rate by -24 bps today. Nelson Building Society cut its variable rate, and its two year fixed rate. Update: ANZ has cut three key fixed rates. Details here. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Rabobank trimmed its savings account rates by -25 bps. Heartland cut theirs by -25 bps or -30 bps. Update: ANZ has cut all its term deposit rates. Details here. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
THE DCS IS ALMOST HERE
We have a detailed explainer about the Deposit Compensation Scheme (DCS) with comes into force on July 1, 2025, just 80 days from today, and well within the expiry date of most term deposits.
RECENT UPTURN
There was a strong upturn in migration numbers in February, but the annual totals are still weaker. The February net migration gain of +29.3% year-on-year, contrasts with an annual loss of -44,055 NZ citizens leaving on a net basis.
HOLDING IT'S OWN
Visitors arrivals were little-changed in February from January, but that masked some notable changes in flows from both China and the US. The flows from China were affected by the timing of the Chinese New Year holiday with it coming in January this year vs February last year. That brought a -48% drop in February compared to a year ago, a decrease of -18,000 to 19,400. There were 63,729 tourism arrivals from the United States in February, the strongest month on record, and up +8,200 or +15%. Arrivals into the South Island were rising, but soft into the North Island even if by far the most visitors arrive via Auckland Airport still.
RETAIL WEAKER
Retail spending was much weaker than expected in March, falling by -0.8%. Analysts had expected a modest +0.2% rise, in line with earlier trends. March’s fall in retail spending was widespread across discretionary spending categories. Spending on durable items like household furnishings was down nearly -3% in March, hospitality was down -1%, and spending on apparel purchases fell -2%. The softness in spending was notable as fuel prices fell over the month, which should have helped to support spending in other areas.
SERVICE SECTOR SOFT
The local services sector is "stable but soft", still contracting. The toughest service sector conditions are in Auckland. New orders are the weakest part of this. New Zealand is a bit of an outlier, because most major economies are experiencing good services sector expansions.
BASIC OPTION
Westpac has launched a basic transactional bank account with limited functionality (still called a pilot) for those who need access to the banking system but find it hard to achieve because of their tough circumstances. This is part of a push by both the RBNZ for "financial inclusion", and a core recommendation of the Commerce Commission’s Market Study into Personal Banking Services.
MINIMAL COST PRESSURE
The pace of supplier cost increases to Foodstuffs supermarkets rose slightly in March, with the Infometrics-Foodstuffs New Zealand Grocery Supplier Cost Index showing an average +2.0% increase in what suppliers charged in March, compared to a year earlier. In March 2024 this index rose +3.2%.
NZX UPDATE
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is leading other markets up, gaining +1.2% so far today. That means it is up +3.3% for the past week, but down -6.9% since the start of the year, and up +2.0% from this time last year. Infratil, Ryman, The Warehouse and Investore lead the gainers to the start the week, offset by declines for Vista Group, Serko, Mainfreight, and Turner's
A DECISION AT LAST
The policy guiding future land use decisions has been approved by Auckland Council's Policy and Planning Committee. The 1,200 properties with high-risk homes exposed by the early 2023 storms are expected to be purchased by the end of 2025, making this one of the largest land acquisition programs undertaken in Auckland.
POLICY HOLD, BUT EXPANSION TARGET LOWER
Singapore reviewed its main monetary policy tool, the S$NEER, and eased them ever-so-slightly by slowing the rate of appreciation in its currency. It uses the exchange rate as its main policy tool rather than interest rates. At the same time, trade turmoil has seen them downgrade its 2025 growth forecast to 0-2% from a previous 1-3%.
FERTILISER COST THREAT
Although urea prices are up a third since mid 2024, they remain far lower than levels apoplying in 2021 and 2022. But the outlook is not especially bright for farmers who buy this natural-gas based fertiliser. Urea-based product accounted for about 30% of all fertiliser here. Rabobank analysts see looming supply shortages and expect outsized volatility in prices. Natural gas prices are up 80% over the past year and competition for supply as coal and oil users 'transition' to gas will keep demand very elevated.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed at the short end today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 3.48% on Friday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +5 bps at 4.41%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps at 1.67%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +4 bps at 4.82% from this morning's pen while today's RBNZ fix was at 4.81% and up +8 bps from Friday. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.47% and down -3 bps from this morning. Their 2yr is down -3 bps at 3.94%, so that positive curve is now less at +53 bps.
EQUITIES RECOVER
The NZX50 is up +1.2% in late Monday trade but not quite making back Friday's fall. The ASX200 is up +1.4% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up +1.6% in early Monday trade. Hong Kong is up +2.7%, while Shanghai is up +0.9% at its open. Singapore has opened up +2.0% to recover Frida's loss. On Wall Street, the S&P500 futures are indicating Monday will open up +1.5%.
OIL DIPS SLIGHTLY
The oil price is down --50 USc from this morning and now just over US$61/bbl in the US, and just on US$64.50/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE DIPS FURTHER
The carbon price is -50c lower today, now at NZ$54/NZU. The next official carbon auction is on Wednesday, June 18, with a $68 floor price. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD HOLDS HIGH
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$2 from this time morning, now at US$3234/oz and still near its record high.
NZD FIRMS FURTHER
The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from this morning, now at 58.5 USc as the greenback eases further. Against the Aussie we are unchanged from this morning at 92.8 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 51.4 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is up at 67 and a +10 bps rise from this morning's open.
BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price is up +0.6% from this this morning, now at US$85,272. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.4%.
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36 Comments
Why are equities up? It seems "up" is the default setting in the absence of bad news.
Apple and Nvidia's input cost's just declined. Gotta whack that into the perp model again!
"Retail spending was much weaker than expected" by analysts. These analysts really need to leave their bath of rose petals and champagne and walk the streets of a regional town talking to people who aren't sitting next to them in the dealing room just after bonus day.
100%. But they are paid to mix average data with industry propaganda. Can't present reality to the public.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/politics/360605837/stuff-politics-live-blog
They want to spend $13.5m to optimistically snare just 23000 tourists. That's almost $600 per tourist. How is that value?
Let alone why do we want more tourists overloading existing infrastructure?
From what I witnessed pre covid, and confirmed by various hospitality employees, the Chinese for example were arriving per Chinese agencies guided tours, on Chinese aircraft, and buses owned by the same operators and staying and eating at hotels that were ditto. Would be interesting to see the net revenue remaining in NZ versus the wear and tear of the excursion.
They want to spend $13.5m to optimistically snare just 23000 tourists. That's almost $600 per tourist. How is that value?
Value accrues to the 'game of mates' - those on the preferred supplier list to come up with a campaign and execute.
They want to spend $13.5m to optimistically snare just 23000 tourists. That's almost $600 per tourist. How is that value?
Depending on who's numbers you look at, the average tourist spends 7 grand while in NZ. So GST pays for it, then presumably theres PAYE earned by workers in tourism, and businesses paying company tax.
Let alone why do we want more tourists overloading existing infrastructure?
Is this a serious problem? Most of our infrastructure burden is by people living here long term, specifically getting old here.
Westland Mayor saying exactly that on RNZ now
Over the Tassie, the Aussie politicians doubling down on protecting the Ponzi by any means necessary as an election bribe. And you have to chuckle at Maccy B referring to it as a "state-sponsored subprime mortgage scheme". Mind you, in some ways, it's a no-brainer - throw shiny trinkets at the young bucks while secretly wink at the boomers knowing the ruling elite has their back.
“The Albanese government effectively announced a state-sponsored subprime mortgage scheme by promising to allow all first home buyers to purchase a home with only a 5% deposit, with the government guaranteeing up to 15% of the loan value”
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2025/04/politicians-blow-worlds-bigges…
I think they will be in for some pain over the next 2-3 years, and public sentiment will boil over as they aren't accustomed to the boom/bust cycles that NZ has gone through in shorter frequency, and the unemployment that comes from it.
Noticed that Moodi probiotic sodas now have listings in Woolworths and now in 300 supermarkets across Aotearoa. Not bad for a business that was previously ecommerce only. However, what I don't quite understand is that the business claims to be outselling Diet Coke. I don't dispute that at all and think that Moodi is likely to be a superior product to Coke.
Question is that at $4.99 a can, if Moodi is selling so well, it kind of makes a mockery at the so-called 'cost of living crisis', particularly among the target shopper / consumer - typically younger people. I smell a rat among some of the hype surrounding these claims.
As I referred to here recently, in the US, a recent Moody’s report suggests the following about consumer spending:
- Top 10% of h'holds account for 50% of value growth in consumer spend
- Lower 60% of h'holds only account for 20%
Are Aotearoa shoppers really that more much flush than in the US?
However, what I don't quite understand is that the business claims to be outselling Diet Coke.
Could be because Diet Coke is a SKU Coke don't push that strongly, if it's sugar free then "Coke Zero" is their volume shifter.
Could be because Diet Coke is a SKU Coke don't push that strongly, if it's sugar free then "Coke Zero" is their volume shifter.
So Moodi likely to be outselling Coke Zero ya reckon P? If so, not an indicator of any cost of living crisis considering the shopper stumps up at least 3x the price for a can.
Probably not. They would've mentioned outselling Diet Coke because it sounds impressive.
I see Liquid Death has struggled outside of the US.
Trying to understand the impotence of the Democrats and other parties of the centre? George Monbiot is a good read.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/apr/13/trump-populists-h…
Until parties of the centre adopt tax policies that truly address income inequality, and can stop the far right's control of the discourse, then populism, extremism and hate will remain in the ascendant.
The best way for the lefties to fight right wing populism
Is to start doing things that are popular.
Popular is a flexible term....popular with whom?
The sort of working class that typically lean left.
You know, the demographic the left haven't been delivering for, for a while now.
Which will likely make them unpopular with the aspirational and definitely make them unpopular with the wealthy....its a numbers game.
Those aren't core demographics the left leaning parties generally cater to.
How is it working out for the greens in NZ?
Leaning too much into fringe issues.
The government controls much of the housing regulatory apparatus.
Seems like affordable housing is an emergency issue.
So throw out the rulebook and just go hard building affordable houses.
So left leaning parties need to do things that are popular with who exactly....the waged?, the unwaged? the retired? the investor?
Then there is identity.
I would suggest that before you can promote policy that is 'popular' you first need to determine who you wish it to be popular with....and unless it is broadly popular you will neither gain the treasury benches nor be successful once there.
Fortunately for our politicians the second part of that equation is not a consideration.
So left leaning parties need to do things that are popular with who exactly....the waged?, the unwaged? the retired? the investor?
Investors, definitely.
I didn't think it was a secret that our system has been under providing/delivering for a fairly large swathe of the middle and lower classes. Housing, living costs, education, health. You know, the sort of problems people have been talking about for years now.
Some of the requisite changes needed in those areas, aren't going to be popular with all New Zealanders, but luckily they're not a large block of left leaning voters. Except maybe Chardonnay Socialists, who call for affordable housing, so long as it doesn't affect the price of their own home.
Seems an odd cohort for 'the left' to appeal to given 'the left' are supposed advocates for crowding out private investment through public provision....perhaps thats where the difficultly lies? Politicians are all seeking to be 'popular' with the same cohort.
I was talking about the centre, not the left. Have you bought into the them vs us crap being peddled these days?
No, I just know enough about how democracies work. Centrist parties with large followings are fairly rare.
I think that's correct - and it is demonstrated in the US by the large crowds and positive reception Bernie Sanders and AOC are getting at their rallies.
I can't believe Kamala (and Joe before her) didn't even run on a lift to the minimum national wage. Their policy platform was uninspiring no matter how much they seemed to think they were inspiring.
It did not appeal to the people who had to pay for it....
You mean the McDonald's and the BKs and the Amazons etc. of this world. No, I suppose it didn't appeal to them.
But who are they but faceless corporate exploiters in the deep south (red states) - many other states (the prosperous ones) have minimum wages well above the national minimum wage of US$7.25 (NZD $12.34) an hour.
It's a national disgrace - even if only a small percentage of American citizens are exploited. It costs the federal government nothing to raise it.
Sobering
"In my 51 years as a journalist, this is the 20th federal election campaign I’ve observed at close quarters, and I’m convinced they’re getting worse: more contrived, manipulative, transactional and misleading, and less focused on the various serious problems facing us, which are far greater than they used to be"
- Ross Gittins
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/this-election-is-one-of-the-wor…
Is Ross referring to journalism or politics?
"In my 51 years as a journalist, this is the 20th federal election campaign I’ve observed at close quarters, and I’m convinced they’re getting worse: more contrived, manipulative, transactional and misleading, and less focused on the various serious problems facing us, which are far greater than they used to be"
The upcoming election. Not sure why that question needs to be asked. Anyway, if you can't access the link, Ross has posted it on his own website.
http://www.rossgittins.com/2025/04/this-election-is-one-of-worst-ive-se…
It's a very good perspective from a journo who's been around the block. It's also in many ways representative of what's happening in Aotearoa.
Natural gas prices are up 80% over the past year and competition for supply as coal and oil users 'transition' to gas will keep demand very elevated.
Gee that's interesting. We're on LPG tanks - had an increase yoy - from $121 to $134 per tank.
Is this saying that residential reticulated (piped) NG went up 80% yoy? My goodness, if so.
Does the US think China is about to invade Taiwan here? IE next 6 weeks or Oct 25?
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