Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There are no fixed rate changes to report today. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
The Cooperative Bank trimmed all its rates. Finance Direct cut most rates, as did UnityMoney. Xceda Finance reduced its savings account rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
THE DCS IS ALMOST HERE
We have a detailed explainer about the Deposit Compensation Scheme (DCS) with comes into force on July 1, 2025, just 80 days from today, and well within the expiry date of most term deposits.
NO RENT INFLATION
Residential rents have been largely flat for the last 12 months. This lack of rental growth will be bad news for landlords but a relief for tenants.
EXTENDED EXPANSION, BUT WITHOUT MORE NEW ORDERS
The manufacturing sector continued to show expansion for a third consecutive month, according to the latest BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI). The good result is however somewhat undercut by weak new order flows. Without those, this recent expansion will be hard to maintain.
DISCOUNTS COME INTO PLAY
Over the past week or so, there has been a notable easing of car insurance rates, especially for the most popular new car models (like the Toyota RAV4) and especially in Auckland and Wellington, not so much in Christchurch. The most popular used cars (like the Toyota Aqua) have not enjoyed the same discounting.
NZX UPDATE
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is following other markets in a sharp reversal, down -1.4% from yesterday so far. That means it is down -1.6% for the past week, down -8.0% since the start of the year, but up +0.8% from this time last year. Kiwi Property, Stride, Argosy, and Investore top the gainers with EBOS , Kathmandu, F&P Healthcare, and Mainfreight leading the decliners.
HOLDING MORTGAGE BROKER TO ACCOUNT
The FMA has filed a criminal charge against Auckland-based former financial adviser Prem Gounder for dishonestly using a document under section 228 of the Crimes Act 1961. The FMA alleges that Gounder, while acting as a licensed financial adviser, submitted a false document, namely a gifting certificate, in support of a home loan application made on behalf of a client.
HOLDING INSURER TO ACOUNT
In Australia, regulator ASIC has taken Hollard Insurance to court alleging serious claim handling failures. Hollard operates in New Zealand through 'partners', including Allianz (travel insurance), Ando (car, home, and business insurance), and PetSure (pet insurance). ASIC's action centers on home & contents claim performance.
NOT SIGNALING CUTS
In a speech, the RBA governor declined to signal that the next move for the 4.10% Cash Rate Target is down, when it next to be reviewed on May 20. Money markets are currently pricing in more than a -25 bps cut however. She is focused on the inflation risks, which seem to be rising.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed at the short end today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 3.48% on Thursday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +9 bps at 4.41%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at 1.64%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +9 bps at 4.78% from this time yesterday while today's RBNZ fix was at 4.72% and up +5 bps from Thursday. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.46% and up +18 bps from this time yesterday. Their 2yr is down -4 bps at 3.83%, so that positive curve is now back out to +63 bps.
EQUITIES TURN LOWER
The NZX50 is down -1.5% in late Friday trade. The ASX200 is down -1.3% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened down -4.2% in early Friday trade. Hong Kong is down -0.4%, while Shanghai is down -0.3% at its open. Singapore has opened down -2.1%. On Wall Street, the S&P500 was down -3.5% in Thursday trade as the magical thinking vanished.
OIL FALLS
The oil price is down -US$2 from this time yesterday and now just over US$59.50/bbl in the US, and just on US$63/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE UNCHANGED
The carbon price is unchanged again today, still at NZ$54.50/NZU. The next official carbon auction is on Wednesday, June 18, with a $68 floor price. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD JUMPS AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$96 from this time yesterday, now at US$3217/oz and a new record high. Gold is playing its role as a safe haven from public policy craziness.
NZD JUMPS AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar is up +130 bps from this time yesterday at 57.9 USc as the greenback sank faster. Against the Aussie we are up +60 bps from yesterday at 92.6 AUc. Against the euro we are down -40 bps at 51.2 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is up at 66.7 and a +50 bps rise. This has all the hallmarks of a safe-haven rally, rather than a commodity rally.
BITCOIN FALTERS
The bitcoin price is down -2.1% from this time yesterday, now at US$80,371. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.2%.
Daily exchange rates
Select chart tabs
Daily swap rates
Select chart tabs
This soil moisture chart is animated here.
Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».
20 Comments
Look at that US10Y, isn't that something. Now I thought a sell-off in equities was meant to drive bond yields lower. Maybe nobody wants to hold long-duration bonds.
Not US ones
Maybe China is selling some of its considerable holding of US treasures as a means to fight back?
Or as a means to trade
That oil price won't bode well for US oil companies extracting it.
If oil is down, we can expect lower inflation. Then why is gold up, and making record highs?
Asian investors dumping dollar-denominated assets and running for safety (gold).
some thinking that US as a safe haven as it once was as well
Then why is gold up, and making record highs?
Gold is like the apex asset people buy due to fear.
DXY snuck under 100 not long ago. Now down 7.7% YTD and breaking support.
Weak USD supports US equities. And yet equities are still selling off. Where is the DXY going, 90?
Weak USD supports US equities. And yet equities are still selling off. Where is the DXY going, 90?
We've already hit 99.
Are investors parking their cash in money markets during uncertainty, pushing down the short end of the yield curve? And once they regain confidence and rotate back into equities, could we expect a sell-off in the short end?
yes short dated treasuries are "like cash" , very liquid.
and gov backed vs bank, swiss went negative in the big crash day.
Swiss bond market is a grand total of 416 billion CHF....the US 10s of trillions.
Malcolm Turnbull makes a good point that all Xi has to do, is the opposite of being Trump. Smart, reliable and non-agressive and other countries will naturally turn away from the USA and towards China.
Until he attacks Taiwan?
The piece about insurance discounting rings true for us.
Just got a renewal on a 3yo Toyota hybrid.
Price down 3% and car value up 5%. Felt strange to receive!
Officebound,
The renewal notice for our EV has just arrived with an 18% premium reduction!!
BOE is losing the grip on UK 30 Yr. The sharp rises are likely pension funds and insurances forced liquidations.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.