Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There are no fixed rate changes to report yet, despite the sharp fall in swap rates recently. But more banks have trimmed their test rates slightly, but that is only helpful for borrowers at the margins. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
China Construction Bank, and Kernel both cut TD or savings rates today. Update: So did Cooperative Bank. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
HOUSEHOLD UPDATES
Updated 2023 census data shows a population makeup where households in occupied private dwellings were almost four-fifths (79.1%) European, a decrease, and almost one-fifth (19.3%) were Māori, 17.2% were Asian, and 7.8% were Pacific peoples. On average there were 2.7 people per household broken down by 4.0 people per household for Pacific peoples, 3.3 people in Māori households, also 3.3 people in Asian households, and 2.6 people in European households.
CLASS ACTION LAWYER HITS OUT AT POLITICAL INTERFERENCE
Scott Russell, the lawyer involved in a class action lawsuit against ANZ and ASB, is criticising the Government's proposed amendment to the Credit Contracts and Consumer Finance Act (CCCFA). Russell says the amendment represents "unprecedented political interference with the judicial process," and specifically targets an ongoing class action filed four years ago "by effectively changing the rules mid-litigation." The class action follows admissions by the banks that they failed to comply with CCCFA disclosure requirements following a Commerce Commission investigation. Russell says it's "clearly a targeted intervention to amend the law to benefit two powerful Australian-owned banks at the expense of thousands of everyday New Zealand consumers."
TRUCKS BUSY BUT NO GROWTH INDICATED
The March update of the ANZ truckometer monitoring suggests that economic activity is very flat. But the tracking does show growth in heavy transport activity.
NZX UPDATE
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is following other markets in a sharp relief rally and it up +3.4%. That means it is down -1.0% for the past week, down -6.6% since the start of the year, and up +2.0% from this time last year. There are 74 gainers today and only 13 decliners. The gainers are led by Mainfreight, up +8.5%, Synlait up +6.9%, Vulcan Steel up +6.9% and Gentrack up +5.9%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +5.5%. The losers are all minnows, except Goodman Property which is down -0.4%.
PYRAMID SCAM ALERT
The Commerce Commission is urging consumers to be wary of opportunities that seem too good to be true, after two individuals pleaded guilty in the Manukau District Court to charges related to the promotion of a pyramid scheme which targeted the Pasifika community in South Auckland.
PROGRESS UNDONE
In March Australian inflation expectations fell to 3.6%, a four year low. But in April they jumped back up to 4.2% underscoring the ongoing uncertainty surrounding their domestic economic outlook and inflation trajectory in the face of fallout from the tariff war. Given they have both a jobs, and an inflation mandate, the RBA is in for a tricky period ahead with its policy choices.
PRODUCER PRICE INFLATION
Japanese producer inflation is rising, now its highest since mid-2023. Producer prices there rose +4.2% in March from the same month a year ago, above market estimates of 3.9%. It was their 49th straight month of producer inflation, with cost rising further for most components
DEFLATION DOUBLE DIP
In China, they not only have to fight off the US tariff policies, they have a resurgence of domestic deflation issues. Their March CPI fell -0.1% when a +0.1% was anticipated. Their PPI fell -2.5% when a -2.3% retreat was anticipated. On the consumer price front, food prices are -0.6% lower than a year ago, of which beef prices fell -10.8% and lamb -5.4%. Milk prices fell -1.7% on the same basis. They want to shift to a consumer-based society, but in the meantime their existing export sector is going to take major hits which will affect consumption, and there seems little upside to consumer demand in the current circumstances. Their "over-capacity" is going to expose them. You wonder if they have any more appetite for capitalism's "creative destruction" than Western economies, who have proven to have virtually none.
QUOTE UPDATE
We added this quote from historian Arnold Toynbee today that seems prescient for what a 2025 Trump is doing in the US. "Civilizations die from suicide, not by murder."
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed at the short end today out to three years, and lower over longer durations. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 3.48% on Wednesday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -7 bps at 4.32%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 1.66%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -11 bps at 4.69% from this time yesterday while today's RBNZ fix was at 4.67% and up +8 bps from Wednesday. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.28% and down -9 bps from this time yesterday. Their 2yr is up +14 bps at 3.87%, so that positive curve has now moved back to +41 bps.
EQUITIES IN RELIEF RALLY
The NZX50 is up +3.4% in late Thursday trade. The ASX200 is up +4.6% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up +8.3% in early Thursday trade. Hong Kong is up +3.0%, while Shanghai is up +1.0% at its open. Singapore has opened up an unusual +5.2%. On Wall Street, the S&P500 was up an outsized +9.5% in Wednesday trade on wishful hopes that Trump had come to his senses. If I could talk to those investors, I have a bridge I could sell them ...
OIL RECOVERS
The oil price is back up +US$4 from this time yesterday and now just over US$61.50/bbl in the US, and just over US$64.50/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE UNCHANGED
The carbon price is unchanged today at NZ$54.50/NZU. The next official carbon auction is on Wednesday, June 18, with a $68 floor price. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD JUMPS
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$118 from this time yesterday, now at US$3121/oz and a new record high. Gold is playing its role as a safe haven from public policy craziness.
NZD JUMPS
The Kiwi dollar is up +120 bps from this time yesterday at 56.6 USc as the greenback sank. Against the Aussie we are down -40 bps from yesterday at 92 AUc. Against the euro we are up +130 bps at 51.6 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is up at 66.2 and a +90 bps rise. At first glance this looks like a commodity rally. But a big gainer is the Japanese yen on safe haven demand. So perhaps the NZD and AUD are getting some of that.
BITCOIN RECOVERS
The bitcoin price is up +8.5% from this time yesterday, now at US$82,126. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been extreme at just on +/- 5.6%.
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32 Comments
I'm surprised at the number of people believing that Trump is capable or that he has a secret grand plan. He does not.
Trump is simply a child who has been given a huge amount of power. Just like a toddler he proclaims "I want this or that" (Greenland, Canada, make Gaza into the Riviera of the Middle East…). Just like a child he has an unrealistic sense of what he's capable of "I will end the war in Ukraine in one day" "I will get China to give in to me", "I will make America great again". Just like a little child, Trump has no understanding of the consequences of his actions, like the chaos his tariffs have created in the markets, or that he is creating an anti-US sentiment worldwide, or that he is isolating the USA, and finally, like a child, he changes his mind daily, without the slightest care or regret.
In the end, like a small child, Trump will achieve very little of value, if anything at all
Meanwhile China is resembling something akin to a huge whirlpool trying to prevent too much disappearing down its own vortex. In times like these matters tend to revert to the very basic societal needs such as good safe food. At this time, New Zealand primary production. as being evidenced by various opinions, is on something of a come back. If so that augurs well, as maintaining sufficient food supply is an acknowledged achilles heel for China, but still the question of too many eggs in one basket cannot be overlooked.
Both things could be true. China and US could both be unhappy countries in their own unique way to misquote Tolstoy.
Could be in for some fireworks if they don't come to their senses
Nicely put. Not to be forgotten either, fireworks were invented in China.
Trump's pretty good at making both the stock market and bond market sell off in volatile swings. Gold's doing well from all the uncertainty.
Is he going to be as good getting interest rates to shit the bed as well? That’s the conspiracy theory isn’t it 🤔
Interest-rates are likely to be driven by ultimate scarcity and time
https://degrowthuk.org/2025/04/04/prospects-for-degrowth-2025/
well worth the read:
'Externally, the increasing scarcity of energy and mineral resources doesn’t mean they are about to run out but that extraction becomes ever more expensive, causing reduction of the both the energy and the money returned by investment across the board, which sends ripples through the system, amplifying the impact of the internal contradiction. The environment also offers increasing shocks from climate and ecological destruction which also have their impacts on the accumulation cycle. Capitalism’s growth motor is broken and while there will be temporary repairs, nobody knows how to fix it long term. ‘Deregulation’, the weakening of hard-won protections for people and planet, is again fashionable but while it might give a temporary boost, it won’t change the underlying realities. Instead it will make their impact greater.'
Same goes for the printing of, and usury from, money.
Agreed, but actually, a bit insulting to most kids😉
Kids might not know stuff, might not make good judgements calls because they lack experience, but they're generally not malevolent, filled with hubris. Kids are teachable. This one, not so much.
That’s awesome 😂😂
Great point !
Ukraine. Trump was the only one who said stop that stupid war.
And only since then has there been progress and people trying to find a way. Of course such progress was always going to be all over the place. Two steps forward and one back. And in different directions. Do you think that was always going to be sinple path to progress Yvil.
Give Trump so credit. He kicked it off. Nobody else had a clue hown or a wish to kick it off.
Putin doesn't want a ceasefire. Or peace. Especially now he feels he has the upper hand (possibly now true).
So Trump has embarked upon something most people knew to be pointless, unless Ukraine gets sold down a river.
Do we all want Ukraine to be sold down a river?
Do we want to be sold down a river?
Ukraine. Trump was the only one who said stop that stupid war.
And only since then has there been progress and people trying to find a way. Of course such progress was always going to be all over the place. Two steps forward and one back. And in different directions. Do you think that was always going to be sinple path to progress Yvil.
Give Trump so credit. He kicked it off. Nobody else had a clue hown or a wish to kick it off.
"Give Trump so credit"
For what? For sucking up to Putin and selling down Ukraine? Hell no, he deserves no credit at all. Nobody forced him to say repeatedly "I can stop the war in Ukraine in one day". He has achieved absolutely nothing, apart from perhaps emboldening Putin.
The middle finger Putin is affording Trump is getting longer and thicker by the day. It is in fact indicative of the historical arrogance that such as Trump interpret as the USA being regarded by the old established nations, their aristocracy and so forth, as a bunch of gauche and unrefined newbies. The danger though is when and how such insult impacts on an intemperate, vain and radical personality such as Trump. History does not fail to reveal that megalomaniacs are not ideal possessors of great power in any shape or form.
Yes, so true. And every time I see the buffoon on a stage, I can't help but think he's getting no sex. Another reason to throw your toys out of the cot.
He'll get as much sex as he wants
Genuine love, not so much
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$118 from this time yesterday, now at US$3121/oz and a new record high. Gold is playing its role as a safe haven from public policy craziness.
If you look Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway adjusted for the gold price, it is about even with simply owning gold since 1998. That's 27 years ago. In gold terms, you really needed to be in BRK.A between 1990-98.
Think of it like this. In 1998, peak gold price was approx $300. BRK,A around $80k. Both of them roughly 10x'd over 27 years.
I gave up using Apple products entirely around 2013. Anyway, Apple’s margins have been cut by 50%. Thinking that anyone in the US would shell out $3,000 for an iPhone is a tough one to reconcile. They're good. But not that good.
On Wall Street, the S&P500 was up an outsized +9.5% in Wednesday trade on wishful hopes that Trump had come to his senses. If I could talk to those investors, I have a bridge I could sell them ...
Hahaha, wonderful sentence David !
Maybe I am sleep deprived, but the percentages quoted in the StatsNZ census data don't make sense to me, adding up 123.4% - Am I missing something here?
"Updated 2023 census data shows a population makeup where households in occupied private dwellings were almost four-fifths (79.1%) European, a decrease, and almost one-fifth (19.3%) were Māori, 17.2% were Asian, and 7.8% were Pacific peoples"
I too was confused.
I'm guessing there are racial overlaps? Mixed race families or flat mates?
Help please.
I remember reading some negative comments on Interest about Williams Corp. My 18 yo nephew has just committed to buy a townhouse off the plans from Williams Corp. I have googled Williams Corp and I have read mixed reviews.
Does anyone know how creditable Matthew Horncastle and Williams Corp are ?
Thanks
DJT is asking the Supreme Court if he can fire Jerome Powell. Trump wants to immediately fire top officials at two independent agencies. This is using the clause "for cause" in the current legislation.
This is a 90 year old case being tested where congress shields top sitting officials.
He wants Jerome Powell removed and other officials will also be able to be fired. The case needs to be approved by the Supreme Court judges but it is clear.
Ending the Fed.
https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/24/24A966/355164/202504091323375…
Its funny the world only feels half F&^%$d today... where to from here?
If China US spirals or both dig heels in , we have economic warfare.
About the only good thing
People aren't as caught up talking about parochial house prices.
All it took was the end of the world as we know it
People aren't as caught up talking about parochial house prices.
All it took was the end of the world as we know it
End of times P? Ashley Church's doppelgänger?
Not end of times.
But the rules and nature of the game is changing
Old concerns become irrelevant
New challenges arise to be addressed
Yes, and I can't think of a better place to watch and contemplate and plan from the sidelines. You're right though, new 'food for thought' on a daily basis - frightening as it is.
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