A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; a test rate moves down, Barfoots says market is turning up, dairy prices hold, building consents fall, markets await American tariff changes; swaps hold, NZD firms, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.

MORTGAGE TEST RATE CHANGES
ANZ has cut its home loan test rate by -15 bps to 7.10%. ANZ says test rates "helps us ensure borrowers can repay their loans without entering financial hardship."

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Bank of China trimmed its TD rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

CALLING A MARKET TURN
Auckland's dominant realtor, Barfoot & Thompson has proclaimed the arrival of the housing market recovery when it released its March results. They posted higher sales numbers and selling prices in March, while stock levels hit a 16-year high.

DAIRY PRICES HOLD UP
Dairy prices rose a modest +1.1% in USD in today's full dairy action from the last full event two weeks ago. The expected dip in prices that the derivatives market expected didn't happen. In NZD prices were up +3.3%. China was back with good demand.

HOUSE BUILDING PERMITS FALL
In February 2025, there were nearly -8% fewer residential building consents issued than in the same month a year earlier. The consent rate per 1000 residents is now down to 6.3, continuing a slide that started in early 2023. This consenting rate is still up near 10 in Canterbury and Otago, but falling in Auckland to 7.7, and down at 3.3 in Wellington. Only Gisborne is lower. In Auckland, the drop away is very noticeable for apartments and retirement units. And townhouse consents are turning negative too. But the toughest place to build a new home is clearly Wellington. The number of new dwellings built there in the year to February was 1811, the lowest since 2016. More here.

NO BETTER FOR OTHER CONSTRUCTION
It is no better for consents issued for non-residential building. They are down -33% in floor area, down 15% in value.

NZX UPDATE
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.4% and the weekly change is now +0.2%. Year-to-date it is down -5.5%, and the change from this time last year is now +2.2%. There are just 33 gainers but that includes market heavyweight F&P Healthcare who is up +2.8%, topped by T&G Global who are up +3.6%. Other notable gainers are Infratil up +2.8% and Goodman Property up +1.6%. There are 51 decliners however, led by Oceania (-3.2%), Manawa Energy (-2.1%), Vulcan Steel (-1.6%) and Spark (-1.4%).

AUSSIE MULTI-UNIT DWELLING PERMIT LEVELS STAY HIGH
In Australia, their house building is still expanding with residential building consents up almost +20% in February from the same month a year ago. That is all about the volume of multi-unit dwellings being consented there. Having noted that, they are still nowhere near back to the 2014-18 or pandemic year levels.

SWAP RATES STILL ON HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed again today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 3.60% on Tuesday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -1 bp at 4.41% holding lower levels. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.86%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -4 bps at 4.62% while today's RBNZ fix was at 4.54% and down -7 bps. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.19% and down -2 bps from this time yesterday. Their 2yr is up +1 bp at 3.90%, so that positive curve is now at a tad lower +29 bps.

EQUITIES WAITING FOR TARIFF DETAILS
The NZX50 is up +0.3% in late Wednesday trade. The ASX200 is up +0.2% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened unchanged in early Wednesday trade. Hong Kong is down -0.2%, while Shanghai is up +0.1% at its open. Singapore has opened down -0.6%. On Wall Street, the S&P500 oscillated in today's Tuesday trade, ending up +0.4%.

OIL HOLDS
The oil price is marginally softer from this time yesterday and now just under US$71.50/bbl in the US, and just on US$74.50/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE STAYS IN LOWER RANGE
The carbon price is up +$1/NZU today and back at NZ$57/NZU. The next official carbon auction is on Wednesday, June 18, with a $68 floor price. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD HOLDS
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$2 from this time yesterday, now at US$3132/oz.

NZD RISES
The Kiwi dollar is up +½c from this time yesterday at 57.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.9 AUc. Against the euro we are up +60 bps at 53.0 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is just under 66.8 and up +40 bps from yesterday at this time.

BITCOIN RISES
The bitcoin price is up +2.9% from this time yesterday, now at US$85,168. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.7%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».