A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; BNZ trims short TD rates, NZX dips, Ryman pays down debt, Aussie wealth rises, AGBs struggle for demand, US sets car tariffs, swaps hold, NZD holds, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
BNZ cut most short term TD rates today. Westpac has too. And we have an updated review of where the TD market now sits which might be helpful. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

NZX UPDATE
After adding to yesterday's outsized gain by mid-day today, the NZX50 has then turned lower as global weaknesses influence local markets. As ay 3pm, the overall index is down -0.2% which makes the weekly change +2.1%, the year-to-date change down -5.8%, and the change from this time last year up +2.5%. There are 41 gainers so far today, with Ryman up +6.0%, Synlait up +5.4%, Meridian up +2.8% and Restaurant Brands up +2.2%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.8% however. There are also 41 decliners today And they are led by Kathmandu down -4.2%, a2Milk down -2.4%, Infratil down -1.9% and Fonterra down -1.7%. The dairy dips just take them back to before the very recent spurts.

DEBT PAYDOWN
Ryman (RYM, #20) today said it has extracted itself from its 2021 $275 mln private debt facility, paying it all off early to escape its clutches. It paid $22 mln to complete that early repayment, the funds coming from its recent $1 bln equity raise. After that is still has $2 bln of debt in a $13 bln balance sheet.

BIG DEMAND CONTINUES
The $500 mln NZGB bond tender today attracted $1.435 bln in 90 bids. 33 were successful. Yields were little changed from the prior equivalent offers.

PROFIT DROP
After the January -3.3% retreat, China's industrial profits were expected to be reported up +4.0% in February. But in fact they came in -0.3% lower again, so a market surprise. The SOE group saw profits rise +2.1%, public listed companies saw their profits down -2.0%, Hong Kong/Macao companies reported a +4.9% rise, and other private enterprises suffered a -9.0% drop.

WEALTHIER, JUST LESS SO
Australian household wealth was up +0.9% or +AU$144 bln in the December quarter, the lowest growth since September quarter of 2022. Year-on-year this was up +6.6% at a time inflation accounted for +2.4%. On that annual before-inflation basis their dwelling values only rose +4.4%. Their Super was up +9.3% however, and the value of their bank accounts were up +8.5%.

DEMAND QUESTIONS RAISED
Post their 2025/26 Budget, the Australian Treasury (AOFM) said it has raised its target bond fundraising from AU$100 bln in the coming year to AU$150 bln. Swap spreads then dived, indicating that demand for this debt paper could be hard to find. Expect Aussie Govt bond yields to rise sharply. They were up +5 bps today. There might be odour that wafts over to NZGBs too.

THE NEXT TARIFF HIT
In the US, the Administration has hit carmakers with 25% tariffs. This will likely have a significant global impact on manufacturing.

SWAP RATES HOLD, BUT LONGER RATES RISE
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed today but the longer end is steepening. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 3.63% on Wednesday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +5 bps at 4.55% today. The China 10 year bond rate is down -3 bps at 1.87%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +7 bps at 4.74% while today's RBNZ fix was at 4.66% and up +2 bps. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.35% and up +2 bps from yesterday. Their 2yr is unchanged at 4.013%, so that positive curve is now at +34 bps.

EQUITIES FIRMER
The NZX50 is down -0.2% in late Thursday trade. The ASX200 is also down, by -0.5% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened down -1.1% in early Thursday trade. Hong Kong is up +0.3%, while Shanghai is up +0.1% at its open. Singapore has also opened up +0.5%. On Wall Street, the S&P500 ended its Wednesday with a big -1.1% drip, all on policy news that seems chaotic.

OIL MARGINALLY FIRMER
The oil price is up +50 USc from this time yesterday and now just under US$70/bbl in the US, and just under US$74/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE ON HOLD
The carbon price is unchanged today at NZ$57/NZU. The next official carbon auction is on Wednesday, June 18, with a $68 floor price. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FIRMISH
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$3 from yesterday, now at US$3027/oz.

NZD LITTLE-CHANGED AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from this time yesterday at 57.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are still at 91 AUc and unchanged. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 53.3 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is just on 67 and little-changed from yesterday at this time.

BITCOIN STILL ON HOLD
The bitcoin price is down -0.3% from this time yesterday, now at US$87,641. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.3%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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