Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Robobank and Unity Money both trimmed term deposit rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
TRADE SURPLUS RISES
In February 2025, compared with the same month in 2024, goods exports rose by +$954 mln or +16% to $6.7 bln, goods imports rose by +$125 mln or +2.1% to $6.2 bn, so our merchandise trade balance was a surplus of +$510 mln. That compares with a deficit of -$319 mln a year ago, a swing of +$829 mln. More here.
WHAT HAPPENED WITH OUR TOP TRADING PARTNERS IN FEBRUARY
Our trade with China was in surplus in February by +$489 mln compered to +$288 mln a year ago. With the US, the February surplus more than halved from a year ago to +$167 mln. With Australia, we had a +$196 mln surplus in February compared to break-even a year ago. With Japan we went from a -$68 mln deficit in February 2024 to break even in 2025. With South Korea, its a big improvement for us, going from a -$456 deficit in the same month last year to -$43 mln this February.
COMCOM PROBES BANKS' NET-ZERO STRATEGIES
The Commerce Commission says it has; "opened an investigation to determine whether the adoption and alleged alignment of net-zero strategies and targets by banks, including commitments made under the Net-Zero Banking Alliance, could breach section 30 of the Commerce Act." This follows a complaint from Federated Farmers.
FRUGAL VISITORS
The RBNZ released its February credit card data today, but there wasn't much of interest in it - at least, related to credit card activity. But this caught our eye: "Billings in New Zealand on overseas issued cards decreased -9.3% from last month to $765 million in February-25. Annually, billings on overseas issued cards were down -1.2%." That seems to imply that while tourism is making some comeback, even if it isn't back to pre-pandemic levels, these visitors aren't spending like we need them to. We are attracting the frugal end of the tourism market.
A COUPLE OF [MINOR] GONGS
The RBNZ has won two categories in the Central Banking magazine awards. They were the Corporate Services Initiative Award for the successful renewal of their IT system, and the Green Award for their climate stress testing work. There were 27 awards in 2025. The central bank of Thailand won the Bank of the Year, and the governor of the Czech National Bank won the governor's award.
NZX UPDATE
The NZX50 has gained +0.9% so far today, though it remains down -0.9% over the last five days. Over the past six months, the index has declined -1.9%, but it holds a +2.1% gain year-on-year. The Warehouse, NZX, Kathmandu, and Infratil top the gainers. Vulcan Steel, a2 Milk, Mercury, and Fletchers lead the days decliners.
CHINA NOT HAPPY
New Zealand’s efforts to win a trade deal with India may have ‘damaged’ its relationship with China. The Chinese ambassador has criticised Luxon’s India trip.
20 CONCLUSIONS BUT NO SMOKING GUN
Australian supermarkets are actually not very good compared to New Zealand equivalents. But they are being blamed for food price inflation and a study by their competition regulator ACCC concludes they are "among the most profitable in the world". Still, after a 12-month inquiry, the regulator has not been able to support claims that Coles and Woolworths are to blame for the inflationary cost-of-living squeeze. And they don't recommend breaking up the two dominant players, Coles and Woolworths.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed today at the short end, but up at the long end, so keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -2 bps at 3.65% on Thursday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +5 bps at 4.44% today. The China 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at 1.91%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 4.68% while today's RBNZ fix was at 4.61% and down another -5 bps. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.24% and up +1 bp from yesterday. Their 2yr is unchanged at 3.97%, so that positive curve is now at +28 bps.
EQUITIES VERY MIXED
The NZX50 is down -0.2% in late Thursday trade. The ASX200 is up +1.1% in afternoon trade on the eased RBA risks. Tokyo is down -0.2% in early Thursday trade. Hong Kong is down -1.0%, while Shanghai is down -0.3% at its open. Singapore has opened up +0.7%. The S&P500 ended its Wednesday session up -1.1% in Wall Street trade making back the prior day's fall.
OIL RISES
The oil price is up +US$2 from this time yesterday and now just under US$68.50/bbl in the US, and just under US$72.50/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE FIRMS
The carbon price is marginally firmer today at NZ$60/NZU and up by +50c. The next official carbon auction is on Wednesday, June 18, with a $68 floor price. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD EASES BACK SLIGHTLY
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$11 from this time yesterday, now at US$3037/oz.
NZD EASES FURTHER
The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps at 57.6 USc from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 91.5 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 53.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is just under 66.9 and down -20 bps from yesterday.
BITCOIN DIPS
The bitcoin price is down -1.1% from this time yesterday, now at US$84,757. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.5%.
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25 Comments
Weekend reading from the IoD
"A newly released report from Boston Consulting Group (BCG) on the Future of NZ Inc: What will New Zealand be known for in 2050? examines how New Zealand can remain competitive in a rapidly changing world. The report highlights that while traditional economic strengths such as dairy, tourism and film have supported the country’s prosperity, they are no longer sufficient to drive sustained growth. It warns New Zealand’s economic trajectory is being challenged by declining productivity, talent shortages, climate risks and technological disruption."
https://www.iod.org.nz/news/articles/strategic-focus-needed-to-future-p…
https://www.bcg.com/publications/2025/future-of-nz-inc-what-will-new-ze…
Oh. The "consultants".
DOGE canceling Accenture contracts is a single easiest way to cut government waste. The US govt spends over a billion dollars a year with these guys and literally no one can explain what they even do. The can pull the plug on the entire thing, including McKinsey, who squeezed >$4 million out of NYC to tell them to put garbage in trash cans.
Accenture's CEO is married to Chertoff Group's co-founder Chad Sweet.
Chertoff Group, founded by former Bush-era DHS secretary Michael Chertoff, is owned by Carlyle Group.
Michael Chertoff is Senior Of Counsel at Covington & Burling LLP, who were just the subject of an Executive Order to have clearances stripped from several C&B lawyers for participating in Jack Smith's weaponized prosecution of J6'ers.
https://www.afr.com/companies/professional-services/accenture-warns-tha…
Maybe we could bend number 8 fencing wire into cool animal shapes and export them
Panda to China and Sacred Cows to India under new FTA
The invoice is in the mail
Nothing, repeat nothing, can 'drive sustained growth'.
And you have had enough put under your nose, to know that.
https://quoteinvestigator.com/2019/07/11/exponential/
Why channel untruth?
...not everyone agrees with your "truth"
I think PDK is impatient to get started on the reorganization of society faced with a world of depleted resources. Most of us think it's a bit too early for such drastic action and that we are likely to enjoy a measure of growth for many years to come. For sure, some years may see negative growth but there will be more years of actual growth. It is important to keep things growing in order to improve things and have resources left over for research and development.
We could do a lot more to be efficient with our resources. For instance, currently too many people manage their bodies very inefficiently by over consuming, requiring the consumption of even more resources in an attempt to remedy the effects of their over consumption. This is daft. If we could get everyone living healthy lives, focusing on productivity or even just being generally law abiding and sensible we could ensure healthy growth for many, many years to come.
I am thinking now good to get energy independent re solar and wind, perhaps a second hand leaf...
already own land and sheep and cows , big vege garden and fruit trees.
Grow some trees and convert your tractor to run on wood gas:
Me and Mrs Other had solar installed late last year through Harrisons Solar. Good and bad points regarding the franchisee but the specs of our system are:
21 x 455w Aiko panels with a Tesla Powerwall 3 (not a fan of Elon Musk at all, but the Powerwall 3 has a built in inverter and a useful app). All up about $37k incl GST. The number of panels was dictated more by electricity retailers having some issue with putting more than 10kwh back into the grid (21 x 455 = 9.555kw).
We are with Electric Kiwi and take advantage of their Hour of Power at 6am every morning, which puts a fair bit of charge back into the PW3 that we then sell back to Electric Kiwi on sunny days.
The Aiko panels were sold to us as being the most efficient ones available at the time (even better ones are probably available now) and at the time Harrisons were really pushing the Tesla PW3. They are offering another brand now!
We are fairly happy with the system so far. I think the installers could have been cleverer with exactly where the panels were placed on the roof but may ultimately not make a material difference over the life of the system.
I'd suggest solar over wind as it will have much lower maintenance costs and make no noise (solar will still produce some power on cloudy days). As PDK has done, you could also store extra panels in a dark, dry place for future deployment.
From a financial point of view (and this is a bit hard to calculate accurately due to any number of factors) I expect we will get payback in about 20 years.
Within that thought, a truth of the matter, the snouts soon depart the trough when it is realised ain’t nothing going to be flowing down again.
Pointless to plan for 2050. The probability of robots being cheaper and more effective than humans by 2035 is very high. Consider $0.25 per hour to pick soft fruit and do so 23 hours a day, seven days a week. The many humans involved in marketing, logistics, driving delivery trucks all replaced by AI and robots. In that world the problem will be what to do with humans - reduce retirement age from 65 to 21?
The explosion in technology is staggering. The world has changed in the 100 years or so since the end of WW1 more rapidly and significantly than any preceding century. Those developments has been catalysed foremost by the exploitation of oil. This is where PDK cannot be refuted. The consumption of oil has been compounding massively. It is a finite resource. All that depended on its supply will be left high and dry inevitably, one day.
Things wont be "left high and dry" as oil wont run out suddenly.
Didn’t say suddenly, just one day.
"Left high and dry" is synonymous with "suddenly". By this stage we will have already recycled/repurposed our fossil fuel burning equipment.
You may think I am being a bit picky but it is at the centre of my objection to PDK's posts. We will adapt and evolve as the environment changes. Humans are masters at this.
Agree that there can be a connotation with suddenly but as a synonym stranded is in the stronger sense in so much as being caused basically, by the tide going out. The point is though, if you for instance go onto flight radar and view all the jet aircraft aloft worldwide at any one moment, each rapidly burning fuel, and compare it to the same traffic only fifty years ago then you arrive at an example of the size of how consumption is compounding in one sector alone. As far as I know no authority has issued any forecast of how long natural reserves of such energy will last but at the rate its use is compounding it is arguable that the realisation of its depletion might well arrive relatively suddenly.
I anticipate the opposite happening. When I was a teenager I was quite excited about the prospect of oil running out. Never happened, 50 years later we have "known" reserves for another 50 years or more. Always seems to stay at 50 years. Fuel can also be synthetically produced from coal, gas and biomass. It might become more expensive and people will have fewer overseas holidays requiring flights or we will develop efficient sea transport. Things will change, possibly for the better!
Have you been reading the RethinkX blog too?
The final report for the ACCC's supermarkets inquiry is out. They have 20 recommendations after finding that ALDI, Coles and Woolworths are some of the most profitable supermarket businesses among global peers and their average product margins have increased over the past five financial years.
I did some research on those involved in this inquiry and the research. Not one expert from the private sector involved in retail and FMCG research. Says it all really.
https://www.accc.gov.au/media-release/accc-recommends-supermarket-refor…
"COMCOM PROBES BANKS' NET-ZERO STRATEGIES"
We are paying tax, to run an org, that is going to investigate whether other org's have colluded on committing to reducing their environmental impact.
Weak.
I recently referred to Micheal Burry's reckon that when a nation's interest payments > tax receipts, they can be classified as a Ponzi.
Anyway, this is interesting.
Interest payments are swallowing the biggest portion of rich nations’ economic output since at least 2007, outstripping their spending on defence and housing, according to figures from the OECD.
Debt service costs as a percentage of GDP for the 38 OECD countries climbed to 3.3 per cent in 2024, a sharp rise from 2.4 per cent in 2021, according to the group’s Global Debt Report on Thursday. In contrast, the World Bank estimates that the same group spent 2.4 per cent of GDP on their militaries in 2023.
Borrowing costs have risen in recent months as bond investors brace for persistent inflation in large economies and rising issuance as many governments expand spending on defence and other fiscal stimulus policies.
https://www.ft.com/content/d69aa3cb-a474-40b7-87ea-5a652202ff6b
.
The US gets around 16% of GDP as tax while NZ gets around 30% so quite a long way to go it would seem. The US could always tax a little more.
Surely not...without billions of taxpayers / ratepayers money (debt) & years / decades of debate
"Bluebridge secures new Cook Strait ferry"
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/545564/bluebridge-secures-new-cook-…
I prefer Blue Bridge they have the pork chop special on the menu
Friendly helpful & competent staff works for me, I've never had reason for a complaint
I don't cross by sea very often however I haven't used NZR Interislander since Bluebridge started over 20 years ago
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