Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ASB made some minor changes to fixed rates today, none market-leading today. More here. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
ASB made some market-leading cuts to some short term deposit rates. SBS Bank also trimmed rates -5 to -10 bps across most terms 3 months to 3 years. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
TENTATIVE RECOVERY
The recession has ended. After plunging in the previous two quarters, GDP grew a better-than expected +0.7% in the December quarter which was 'a genuine upside surprise'. However many observers noted the recovery is a 'crawl', 'patchy', and that we are just 'bouncing off the bottom'. Indications for Q1-2025 are not much improved.
JOB GAINS NOT SUSTAINED
Seek reports a -2% decline in February job ads as hiring demand slows following January rise.
FONTERRA CONFIRMS BETTER TIMES
Dairy giant Fonterra is paying its shareholder farmers a 22c interim dividend, up from 15c last year and narrowed its forecast milk price range - although the 'midpoint' for this is still a record $10.00/kgMS.
NZX UPDATE
The NZX50 has risen +0.3% so far today, reducing its weekly decline to -1.1% and building its year-on-year rise to +2.1%. There are 49 gainers today, led by Synlait (+3.1%), Mercury (+2.4%), Fonterra (+2.3%) and both Skellerup and Manawa up +2.2%. There are 31 decliners led by Channel Infrastructure (-2.1%), Vulcan Steel (-2.1%), Summerset (-1.8%), and Oceania (-1.6%). Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.5% so far in today's session.
MORE SUPER-SIZED DEMAND
There was another very well-supported NZGB bond tender today where 116 bids worth almost $2.1 bln were the chasing $500 mln offered. 31 of those bids won something. In all three maturities offered, yields were -5 to -10 bps lower than the equivalent tenders one or two weeks ago.
UNEXPECTED DECLINES
The February labour market data for Australia was a surprise disappointment - for the ruling Labor Party at least. The number of people in paid employment fell by -53,000 when a +30,000 rise was widely expected. This is not a small miss, and 'unwelcome' ahead of their upcoming election campaign. But the number of people jobless also fell, and by -11,300, which managed to keep their jobless rate unchanged at 4.1%. The reason both fell is because their participation rate fell to a nine-month low of 66.8%, down sharply from January's 67.2%. People are leaving their workforce faster than usual. Monthly hours worked in all jobs shrank. Financial markets won't react badly because it probably will shift the RBA away from worrying about 'tight labour markets' and open up the possibility of rate cuts.
CHINA RATES ON HOLD
China kept its Loan Prime Rates unchanged at today's review with the one-year rate, a benchmark for most corporate and household loans, steady at 3.1%, while the five-year, a reference for property mortgages, holding at 3.6%. Both rates are record lows.
SWAP RATES FALL
Wholesale swap rates are probably lower today, minor;y at the short end, more at the long end, but keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 3.67% on Wednesday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -7 bps at 4.39% today. The China 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at 1.93%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -8 bps at 4.68% while today's RBNZ fix was at 4.66% and down another -2 bps. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.23% and down -7 bps from yesterday. Their 2yr is also down -7 bps at 3.97%, so that positive curve is still at +25 bps.
EQUITIES VERY MIXED
The NZX50 is down -0.2% in late Thursday trade. The ASX200 is up +1.1% in afternoon trade on the eased RBA risks. Tokyo is down -0.2% in early Thursday trade. Hong Kong is down -1.0%, while Shanghai is down -0.3% at its open. Singapore has opened up +0.7%. The S&P500 ended its Wednesday session up -1.1% in Wall Street trade making back the prior day's fall.
OIL SLIPS
The oil price is down -US$1 from this time yesterday and now just over US$66.50/bbl in the US, and just under US$70.50/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE SLIPS, AUCTION FAILS
The carbon price is marginally firmer today at NZ$59.50/NZU on still-good volumes, but a bear trend. That is extending the slide that started early February. There were no bids received at today's Carbon Auction. Given the minimum price was $68, this is no surprise. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD RISES FURTHER ABOVE US$3K
In early Asian trade, gold is up another +US$19 from this time yesterday, now at US$3048/oz.
NZD EASES MARGINALLY
The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps at 57.9 USc from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 91.4 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 53.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is just over 67.1 and down -10 bps from yesterday.
BITCOIN RISES
The bitcoin price is up +3.7% from this time yesterday, now at US$85,730. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.9%.
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10 Comments
The SEC has ditched its appeal against Ripple - one of the most important legal cases in the crypto space. The SEC has more or less failed to achieve anything, all at a cost to the US taxpayer. And it's wild to think that Ripple is now the plaintiff on their cross appeal and the SEC has done nothing to promote regulatory clarity and protect US investors over the interests of the political and banking ruling elite.
Disgraced SEC Chair Gary Gensler is now at MIT to the ire of many of the students. He was a puppet controlled on a string. He could have been honest and pushed for regulatory clarity from Congress, instead of attempting to be an overlord and stepping outside its boundaries. This is partly why actions like DOGE have been enforced.
And to top it all off, think of the owners of XRP who've had to put up with this over the past 4 years.
https://www.reuters.com/legal/ripple-ceo-says-us-sec-will-drop-appeal-a…
Between 1999 and 2002, the UK sold 395 tonnes of gold at an average price of $275 per ounce, a total of £3.5bn.
Today, those same reserves would be worth $38.5bn.
This must rank as one of the worst public investment decisions in British history.
In today’s vernacular, Brown’s actions would no doubt be described as “woke” economics – a repudiation of an old-fashioned and at the time unfashionable store of monetary value for a newer and trendier, gender neutral form of currency.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/03/19/donald-trumps-chaos-is-…
Doubtless it seemed a good idea at the time - and did he use the proceeds for somethig clever like debt repayment?
Or did it just get used instead to fund tax cuts?
Let me consult George Best
"I spent a lot of money on booze, birds and fast cars. The rest I just squandered"
Maybe that matches NZ's decision not to have any gold reserves but rely on IMF special drawing rights. (could be corrected on this).
Apparently to those in the know at the time the decision taken in NZ was that the IMF was the go to place to help you out in time of need.
"Apparently to those in the know at the time the decision taken in NZ was that the IMF was the go to place to help you out in time of need."
Whether that was the correct decision at the time is open to debate but I would suggest that in the current climate of Trump and volatility that the IMF has lost its credibility. (if you believed they had any to begin with)...the path forward is very uncertain and changes by the tweet.
FX swap lines from the FED now help you stabilise FX in times of crisis
Only against the USD....if that loses primacy??
lets hope you are a true prepper if that happens
I have sat through dot.com crash, GFC and Covid crash since on trading floors, it always feels like the end of the world.
World not ended yet.
World wont end with the loss of USD primacy either....just the world as you know it.
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