Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
The Cooperative Bank cut its one year fixed rate to 5.19% today, a -10 bps trim. That matches Kiwibank and TSB, but is lower than the other main banks for that term. All rates are here.
DISTRIBUTION EXPANSION
Fintech Dosh is now able to write Westpac home loans through its app. An enticement is their Streak rewards which are in addition to any offers, such as up front cashback from Westpac.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
The Cooperative Bank cut its 6 to 12 month term deposit rates today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
RENTS MOVE UP IN JANUARY
The national median rent kicked off 2025 with its first increase in 12 months, with a $20/week rise in January.
STILL IN A FLAT TREND
The February Truckometer monitoring by ANZ suggests that consumers are still stuck in their funk, but that businesses are holding on to the recent notable recoveries.
UP BUT NOT VERY IMPRESSIVELY
Stats NZ says retail card spending rose +0.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis in February after taking a dip in January. But this expansion lags levels seen last year. Retailers noted that growing unemployment is also impacting shopping habits and contributing to retailers’ challenges.
LARGE SCAM LOSSES SURGE
Losses reach $6.8 mln in the last quarter of 2024, as large-loss cyber incidents surge, NCSC reports.
DEPRIVATION ANALYSIS
The University of Otago has updated its social deprivation analysis with more 2023 Census data. It encompasses eight 'dimensions', which are: communication, income. employment, qualifications, home ownership, support, living space, and dwelling condition. It is a statistical area assessment, not for individuals or households. The higher the deprivation decile, the more socioeconomically deprived the area.
TEN PERCENT HAS BECOME THE NORM
Local authority income from rates and "regulatory income" (fines and fees) rose +11.6% in the year to December 2024. That is its fastest rise in 18 years. The rate of growth has now exceeded +10% pa for most of the last six quarters, the longest +10% streak since we started monitoring this data from 1995.
INFLATION WATCH
Of course, local councils aren't the only ones hiking prices at present. We have seen substantial price increases from electricity companies, gas suppliers, and now SkyTV. Inflation seems like it is about to take another shift up.
NZX UPDATE
The NZX50 has dropped -1.0% in today's session so far, extending its monthly decline to -4.8%. Despite the slump, the index remains up +3.9% year-on-year. Infratil, Channel Infrastructure, Gentrack, and Serko lead the gainers with Tourism Holdings, Warehouse Group, F&P Healthcare, and Heartland the main decliners
KIWIBANK CHAIRMAN STEPPING DOWN
Kiwibank says its chairman, Jon Hartley, has decided not to seek reappointment when his term ends in November. Hartley has been the bank's chairman since 2019. The board of Kiwibank parent company Kiwi Group Capital will initiate a process to identify and appoint a new Kiwibank chairperson.
THIS IS INTERESTING
A $700 mln fund earning 12.8% pa returns doing good on a long-term basis. It will soon be a $1 bln investment fund.
WE ARE HIRING
interest.co.nz needs an experienced business or economics journalist to work from our Auckland office. More here.
EMBEDDED NOW
Japanese PPI is still rising at +4.0% year-on-year in February, reinforcing how embedded inflation has now become in Japan. And probably at a higher level than they are comfortable with. It's the sixth straight month it has exceeded 3%.
MORE DODGY DEALING
In Australia, regulator ASIC is suing Australia's largest superannuation fund for delayed, unfair and inefficient processing of death benefit transfers for almost 7000 people. It is far from the first time regulators have had to step in to enforce proper operations. AustralianSuper is the world's 16th largest retirement fund at AU$340 bln and is essentially controlled by Australian unions, although its trustee is formally owned by the ACTU, and the employer peak body Australian Industry Group.
MAFIA RATIONALE
In an extension of targeting its 'friends', the US confirmed that there will be no exemptions for tariffs on Australian steel and aluminium. Of course, the US still expects those it offends to keep buying US products and services.
OUR NEW TAIWAN 'AMBASSADOR'
Chris Langley as the new Director of the New Zealand Commerce and Industry Office (NZCIO) in Taipei. The NZCIO promotes New Zealand’s trade, economic and cultural interests in Taiwan Langley was New Zealand Ambassador to Brazil from 2018 to 2021 and has had previous postings in Indonesia and Chile. He has served as senior adviser to the Minister of Foreign Affairs and to the Minister of Trade. He has held roles in MFAT's APEC and Trade Negotiations divisions and is currently working in the International Security and Disarmament Division. He also took a two-year sabbatical from the Ministry to work in the private sector in Sydney.
LGFA ISSUES A USD BOND
The LGFA has placed US$500 miln in funding at a 4.137% interest rate via a RegS bond, which raises USD funding outside the United States without the need for their securities registration. It has a coupon of 4.125% on an American-style 360 day year basis. It is rated AA+ and listed in Singapore. Overall, the LGFA is on a plan to raise NZ$5.1 bln in the 2026 fiscal year.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably marginally softer again today, but keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 3.70% on Tuesday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +10 bps at 4.50% today. The China 10 year bond rate is up another +6 bps at 1.95%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +8 bps at 4.73% while today's RBNZ fix was at 4.68% and up +6 bps. The UST 10yr yield is now just under 4.28% and back up +11 bps from this time yesterday. Their 2yr is up +10 bps at 3.94%, so that positive curve is now at +34 bps.
EQUITIES HESITATE
The NZX50 is down -0.9% in late Wednesday trade. The ASX200 is down -1.4% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +0.2% in early Wednesday trade after yesterday's outsized fall. Hong Kong is little-changed, as is Shanghai at its open. Singapore has opened unchanged too. The S&P500 fell -0.8% in Tuesday Wall Street trade, pressed lower by more US Administration chaos. So that is now a -9.3% drop just since its record high on February 19, 2025. (The Dow fell -1.1% earlier today to be down -7.2% over the same timeframe. The Nasdaq is down -12.7%.)
OIL RISES
The oil price is up +US$1 from this time yesterday and now just over US$66.50/bbl in the US, and just under US$70/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE GETS MINOR BOUNCE
The carbon price is up a minor +50c today at NZ$61.75/NZU on improved volumes. That is just off its six month low. The next release of units at the official auction is on March 19, 2025. But that auction's floor price is $68/NZU, so it is heading for a failure. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD FIRMS
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$26 from this time yesterday, now at US$2914/oz.
NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps at 57.1 USc from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.7 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 52.3 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is just on 66.4 and little-changed from this time yesterday.
BITCOIN RECOVERS SOME
The bitcoin price is up +5.3% from this time yesterday, now at US$83,343. Volatility of the past 24 hours has again been high at just on +/- 3.0%.
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54 Comments
Tuesday?
grrrr ...
I think the "deal" reached between Ukraine and the US to agree for a 30 day ceasefire is pretty good for Ukraine.
1) It realigns Ukraine with "his highness" Trump, who agreed to resupply Ukraine with weapons and intelligence, which is the only real outcome of the meeting
2) It puts the onus on Russia to agree to the ceasefire (which I personally doubt they will), and makes them the bad guys in Trump's eyes if they don't agree.
Russia has not been all that concerned about the Ukrainian salient at Kursk, up until now. Removal of that exposes the northern flank of the highly strategic Kharkov region and thus territory to the west. Kharkov is therefore vital as proved to be the case in the Russian civil war and WW2. Even so, given the immense difficulty Russia has had in claiming much smaller towns it is questionable if they have such ability for a city the size of Kharkov which assumedly the Ukrainians by now, have had the sense to significantly fortify.
The resistance to the original Russian invasion by Kharkiv was an impressive and brave event. Russia just assumed the Russian-speaking part of eastern Ukraine would welcome them in. Not only did Kharkiv resist, local forces from there chased the Russians out and have resisted stoutly ever since. If Russia can't win over Russian speakers, there is no hope for them in their campaign long term. I bet even the locals in Luhansk, Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia, even Crimea, are having serious second thoughts about their annexation. I am sure they all know the Holodomor is their future if they surrender. I very much doubt the Russian can wear the Ukrainians down, even with meat-wave attacks.
Russia just assumed the Russian-speaking part of eastern Ukraine would welcome them in.
Just so you're aware, the last census in Ukraine was done in 2001. 17.3% of the national popn identified as 'ethnic Russian.' By 2024, surveys indicated that only about 2% identified as ethnic Russians. You can make your own mind why that is; however identifying as ethnic Russian has not done anyone any favors in Ukraine, particularly since Maidan.
Not only did Russia make such false assumptions they ignored their own history. Eastern Ukraine is bordered to the west by the Dnieper river and to the east and running parallel is the Don River. That creates a funnel if you like atop of which sits Kharkov as the plug. Due to that position, the doorway to South East Ukraine, the Wehrmacht and Red Army fought four major battles. Three years ago the Russians were misguided firstly to think that Ukraine had forgotten their previous suffering and secondly that the Ukrainians didn’t understand they had nothing to lose by fighting with what ever they could to prevent another dose.
David, while I agree with your assessment that Russia's campaign in Ukraine has no hope long term, I do object to the phrase "meat-wave attacks". It is rather propagandistic and a literally dehumanizing alternative for "human wave attack". These are still human beings being killed. Also, there is scant evidence of human wave attacks in this age of GoPro equipped soldiers and battlefields constantly surveilled by flying drones. I've watched a lot of the combat footage. It would make for very dramatic footage, wouldn't it?
Generally a commander will plan to attack with a superior force on a weak part of the enemy's line of defence. This was a German tactic. Overwhelming fire power on a weakly defended point. If, for some reason, the intel is wrong and the attack is repelled, the higher casualties than normal could possibly be mistaken for a Banzai charge...I guess. Anyway, no footage of waves of foot soldiers getting mowed down by machineguns exists as far as I know.
The West has a long tradition of claiming the enemy, sometimes called "the horde", fling themselves, mindlessly, like ants, at our well disciplined defences. Encourages the soldiers to keep their weapons clean and in good working order.
A good chess tactic, is to put yourself in your opponent's shoes. What would I do if?
Russia plays with its back to the East, predominantly on defense (playing Black).
They look for a buffer; a no-man's land. Flat plains don't do it, certainly not flat plains occupied by US weaponry. Even the Mongols took Kiev - then backed off going further into Russia, requiring deference but not annihilation. That area has been the middle of the board forever. Blaming dratted others - Putin, Trump - is shallow thinking. Asking why? is the way to go.
The fatal flaw with geographical buffers is that when one party that is resultantly buffered, then occupies the buffer, and therefore the buffer ceases to exist as a buffer. For instance, Stalin likely thought that the gift of north east Poland provided a requisite buffer, but he was wrong.
I hope you are right, David.
Kiwikids, I didn't see your links before commenting, both are very aligned with my earlier post.
It will be interesting to see how Europe responds to the new normal on their eastern border... If push does escalate to shove, do they have the political will and the military capability to roll Russia back? And what would it all mean for the rest of us?
Where that gets tricky unfortunately is the question of nukes. Russia has not been short on issuing threats. Initially use was said to be only justified in the face of an existential threat. Assumedly that would include all Ukrainian territory now occupied. President Biden, or likely more accurately Defence Secretary General Austin, reportedly provided clear deterrence in terms of resultant retaliation. Not sure if the new administration is of the same calibre in that regard.
The level of deterence from the USA might fluctuate on a daily basis, if recent policy implementation is anything to go by....
European NATO alliances are talking about planning for a security force - but I suspect they are planning for an offensive move. Europe will not let this drag on. A 30-day ceasefire gives them more time to plan - so can't see Putin going for that. All depends on what he's got left and what the 'mood' of the Russian people are for/or against this.
Internal dissent must be a real worry for the Kremlin.
And the oligarchs want their stuff back.
As with Nazi Germany’s occupation of the Rhineland the time for such a counter force was right at the beginning. The European nations should have collectively enough military force to confront Russia and likely prevail especially as Russia has expended its military for three years now. But do those European nations have the stomach?
I agree and I think so. Sad as it is to say, might not be long when the European continent is again at war.
Whether Turkey steps in early on is a big question. 9th largest firepower in the world rankings;
https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.php
Zelensky visited Turkey on the same day that the US met with the Russians in Saudi Arabia.
Technically it was the Allies who did the "occupation of the Rhineland" up until 1930. I'm sure a military response to Germany taking control of its own territory would have been deemed excessive at the time. And who really knows how that would have turned out? Maybe it would have delayed WW2 long enough for Germany to develop atomic weapons.
ASX only 0.5% away from giving up 12 months of gains.
just another.... time in the market myth wake up call.
also associated with missing the ten best days BS, all power to Craig's for this
https://craigsip.com/news/the-myth-of-missing-the-best-ten-days
See, you would enjoy bull fighting! ( i.e. you love seeing blood)
I trade long and short, makes no difference to me, but you make money quicker if you are short and right IMHO Fear is more powerful then Greed. My kiwi saver is probably a long only fund, that's why I change to conservative when I think things are going to turn to crap.
Best to never get excited about wins or sorry about losses, its just trading.
It looks like you don't realise it, but the majority of your posts revel in downsides, no matter the subject.
Yes, it's getting painful and I am close to simply not reading any posts from this commenter. Claiming that time in the market is a myth because the share market went down over a year is weird. It's not abnormal for share markets to have bad years. Time in the market refers to 10+ years.
if you had got out back on the 25th Feb when I switched you would not be negative for the year.
Maybe you just do not have the skills to time a boiled egg.
I'm not negative for the year.
Do you ever go a day in without big upping yourself?
If you read all the other comments here, you'll find noone else is really doing it.
Funny.
Two of the most closed, avoiding intellects here, both making the same comment.
Exponential growth being practiced on a finite planet - yet 'not abnormal'. For which doubling?
Go figure.
I have a lot of time for your views, we are bumping against limits BUT we always have.
I need to come down, bring Scarfie, and have a few homebrews with you.
There are many on here I would like to share a few beers with.
haha.... There have been more downsides lately, I will ring a bell for you at the bottom of NZ Ponzi and you can join me in buying.....
I post my calls here, only one post calling top and moving my funds to conservative. You can chose to ignore me ... or not.
Ones Credibility rests on calling things right. To many Spruikers call the bottom every month and there fore they have zero credibility here...
You sound more of a term deposit sort of guy anyways. Less rest aye.
You keep posting your bottom calls in NZ Housing and I will keep ignoring them.
"You sound more of a term deposit sort of guy anyways."
Just shows how little you understand about me. I'm a business owner and an investor, a real one, not one that shuffles his KiwiSaver from "balanced" to "conservative" and thinks he's done amazing.
Forty (FMG) up 70% over past 5 years, but near term not so good - 50% of ATH in 2024; down 37% in past 12 months; 15% YTD. Div yield of 10%+.
For the Ponzi, CBA up 112% over past 5 years and 21% over past 12 months. You can't go wrong with bricks and mortar. Most expensive banking stock in the world.
Wesfarmers up 86% past 5 years but not much to write home about. Expensive stock.
About CBA, bro commented that every freaking lame index fund & super fund have to pile more into it every day simply by fact of it being top dog on ASX.
Japanese listed company Metaplanet issues JPY 2 billion JPY of 0% ordinary bonds to purchase additional Bitcoin. Metaplanet is a BTC treasury but their underlying business seems to be little more than a management contract on a 3-star hotel in Tokyo. Done some due diligence on this company and some things don't add up to me.
BTC price over past 12 months: 15.5%
Metaplanet share price over past 12 months: 1,770%
Oh well. Hats off the those who understand this and punted accordingly.
https://contents.xj-storage.jp/xcontents/33500/90f73470/a5f8/4af0/9078/…
Trade Me Property currently has over 49k listings "Showing 49,092 results".
44,985 on realestate.co.nz, also very high & rising. "Over 49,000" on OneRoof. Although most will be the same, these are serious volumes. Auction rooms are dominated by sellers, buyers quite scarce.
Today I published my proposal in response to Kiwibank’s capital raise. I make the case for future-proofing the Kiwi dollar using Bitcoin, Lightning, and eCash—positioning Kiwibank as a leader in financial innovation.
Linkedin, X , Stacker News
Two full-time workers earning Tokyo’s minimum wage can comfortably afford the average rent for a two-bedroom apartment in six of the city’s 23 wards.
By contrast, two people working minimum-wage jobs cannot afford the average rent for a two-bedroom apartment in any of the 23 counties in the New York metropolitan area.
According to the National Association of Real Estate Transaction Associations in Japan, the average rent in July 2020 for a 2-bed (2K/2DK) outside the 'Central Six' in Tokyo was ¥ 99,365 pcm (40% of tenants also pay key money). With a minimum wage of ¥1,113 per hour, and assuming a 40 hour week (ignoring the typical overtime worked in Japan), the average rent would require two workers to pay 26% of their income on rent.
But when it comes to the 'Central Six,' the average rent would require 46% of their income.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/11/opinion/editorials/tokyo-housing.htm…
What did Japan do right?
I suspect they are an outlier in comparison to most of the OECD countries (i.e., the only one with no housing/accommodation affordability crisis).
Dosh seems like a sucker trap.
Their key selling points are
- Discounts of retail mortgage rates (noone actually pays retail anyway)
- Their own special cashback scheme, up to a max of 0.2% over the life of the loan.
Advertising features that are less than everyone usually gets...
FIF rules under review....finally
Initially for the Coalitions wealthy migrant mates however "The government will also be looking at how the rules impact New Zealand residents and will have more to say later in 2025,"
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/544593/possible-tax-break-for-migra…
The University of Otago has updated its social deprivation analysis with more 2023 Census data.
Thanks for the link.
Impressive study - includes an interactive (decile ranking) map which has an impressively granular look across NZ.
I wonder if this is the kind of University research in the humanities and social sciences that we will no longer get as a result of government withdrawing the Marsden Fund?
Central government take note:
Local authority income from rates and "regulatory income" (fines and fees) rose +11.6% in the year to December 2024. That is its fastest rise in 18 years. The rate of growth has now exceeded +10% pa for most of the last six quarters, the longest +10% streak since we started monitoring this data from 1995
This cannot be sustained. Which is why the last government proposed to purchase and take over the management of water and sewerage reticulation services. Only the central government balance sheet can afford this... individual ratepayers cannot.
As far as attracting the mass vote, leaving that liability on local council balance sheets makes sense.
Makes no sense in the context of trying to run the country, but thats secondary right?
Not always. A number of local bodies were managing their water services just fine and still are. The takeover as proposed was more than just management and was entirely open ended in so much that there was no constraint on rate payers in any locality finding themselves burdened in future with extra special charges for water services, and with little explanation. Finally if there had been merit in the set up as proposed it was quickly undone by increasing suspicion of the actual players involved and the associated motives. This suspicion was confirmed by the attempt at entrenchment which gave the middle finger to then Prime Minister Ardern and seriously breached established parliamentary protocols and undercut democracy itself while at it. Something that was above board and meritorious should not have needed to resort to such measures.
No Kate.
No. no and thrice no.
Central Government has no more capability than the parts - of which it merely a sum.
Don't be fooled by 'issuing currency' - the requirement is for energy, and resources (diggers and pipes and fuel) and to parry increasing entropy (there's never been more water infrastructure, nor has it been collectively older). The task is impossible and therefore will never be completed. Regardless of who puts which deck-chair where.
This is what brought Rome down - and they wrongly identified the drivers, too. We will end up operating very. very locally. Some local groups will be inspiredly-led, some will be led by rigid-brained ideologues (regardless of left/right).
Exactly. Bravo! For instance ratepayers in Christchurch are making it known rather than $000,000s being spent on an up ended brown statue of a dog turd in the Avon River to catch weeds, that said money would be more effective if spent on a bit of dredging, widening and weed cutting to prevent recurrent flooding further downstream.
What, why?
That's not why Rome fell. And anyway, what came after was even better. We humans will always find a way.
The task is impossible and therefore will never be completed
I don't disagree with you there.
Point is - in the meantime a lot, lot more will be spent on 'trying to keep the lights on', so to speak - and what I'm saying is ratepayers can't afford it.
Central government borrows at less from overseas and central government controls the currency.
Given life will go on under this 'growth' mantra - until it no longer does (and I see that 'belief' hanging around for at least the next three decades).. big money will be spent. Residents do not have big money - hence Council's do not have big money.
I'm not saying "local water done well" is the wrong approach (yes, the more local the better) - BUT ONLY as long as central government is the primary funder.
Central government can pass that low interest rate on as an intermediary come guarantor and they can make damn sure that the funds are then spent exactly as per said allocation. Seems to be the only way councils are going to cease their spendthrift compulsions is when ratepayers start screaming enough. Wellington is showing signs of that right now.
Sure they need to cease their spendthrift ways - but thing is the debt pile as a result of those past spendthrift ways.
Too much debt to ever get ahead of the game - hence their ever increasing need for new revenue. And at the moment, their only option is rate rises. And/or user pay service provision rises once their CCOs are established. Either way - such rising costs are unsustainable.
A $700 mln fund earning 12.8% pa returns doing good on a long-term basis. It will soon be a $1 bln investment fund.
Yes, Rātā - good on them.
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