Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
BNZ, Westpac and Heartland Bank all cut fixed rates today Details here. All rates are here.
MORTGAGE TEST RATES FALLING NOW TOO
Kiwibank leads the main banks in cutting mortgage test rates following last week's OCR cut, increasing borrowing capacity.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
There were TD rate cuts from the Bank of India, Bank of Baroda, Band of China, and China Construction Band today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
FEWER HOUSES BEING BUILT
The number of new homes being built in Auckland continues declining, falling -5.2% in 2024.
AN EARLY WHITE FLAG, AGAIN
Meridian and New Zealand’s Aluminium Smelter have agreed that NZAS will provide 50MW per hour of demand response for winter 2025. In other words, NZAS will be reducing their power use over the coming months to help with conserving New Zealand’s hydro storage. It’s a continuation of demand response arrangements that NZAS and Meridian have successfully cooperated on for some time. Essentially it means we don't generate enough power to keep the country running over winter. Even today prices are relatively high because generation is relatively low.
BELOW AVERAGE
Auckland's water storage dams are 68.6% full. Normal for this time of year is 79.2%.
NZX UPDATE
The NZX50 is having another tough day, down -1.6% so far, down -5.2% over the past week, down -4.8% over the past month. More details here. a2 Milk, Investore Property, NZX, and Heartland led the meager gains, while Ryman, Oceania, Freightways, Contact, and Tourism Holdings were the big decliners. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare has only dipped an insignificant -0.1% today.
UNDERWHELMED, COMING UP SHORT
Yesterday we reported that Ryman (RYM, #17) was seeking $1 bln from shareholders and new equity to pay down debt. Today we can report they 'only' raised $719 mln through its $313 mln underwritten institutional placement, and the institutional component of its $688 mln entitlement offer. When trading resumed, their equity prices fell -19.6% (and down *-27% in a week), and that dragged the market sharply lower. RYM has lost more than $800 mln of value over the past week. It's been a huge week of value destruction given Spark lost more than $1 bln earlier.
CLEANUP UNDERWAY
The shareholders of Northport, the port at Whangarei, are moving to clean up it ownership structure. When completed, Northport will be owned 50% by the Port of Tauranga, 42% by the Northland District Council, and 7% by Tupu Tonu, a Crown-owned investment company tasked with acquiring and building a portfolio of commercial assets that can be offered in future Treaty settlement negotiations with Ngāpuhi.
EYES ON DAIRY PULSE EVENT
Tomorrow there is a GDT Dairy Pulse auction for SMP and WMP. Futures traders expect the SMP price to hold, but the WMP price to fall and give up quite a bit of its recent gains.
ANOTHER KOREAN CUT
South Korea's central bank cut its policy rate by -25 bps to 2.75% today. This was as expected. It is their third cut since this rate peaked in January 2023 at 3.5%. Their cutting cycle started in October 2024.
SWAP RATES HOLD YET AGAIN
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be little-changed yet again, but keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -2 bps at 3.75% on Monday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -4 bps at 4.45%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at 1.76%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -4 bps at 4.65% while today's RBNZ fix was at 4.62% and down -3 bps. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.38% and down -6 bps from yesterday. Their 2yr is down -4 bps at 4.16%, so that positive curve is at +22 bps.
EQUITIES MOSTLY LOWER
The NZX50 is down -1.2% in late Tuesday trade, hurt this time by Ryman. The ASX200 is also down and by -0.9% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is also down -0.9% in early Tuesday trade. Hong Kong is down -1.6%, and Shanghai is down -0.4% its open. Singapore has managed a tiny +0.1% gain at its open. Wall Street was down -0.5% on the S&P500 in Monday trade.
OIL FIRMISH
The oil price is up +50 USc, now just on US$71/bbl in the US, and at US$75/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS IN RANGE
The carbon price is still within its range, and today is up +60c at NZ$63.10/NZU. The next release of units at the official auction is on March 19, 2025. But that auction's floor price is $68/NZU, so it is heading for a failure. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD RISES
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$22 from this time yesterday, now at US$2949/oz.
NZD MARGINALLY SOFTER
The Kiwi dollar has fallen -20 bps from yesterday at this time, now at 57.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.3 AUc. Against the euro we are still at 54.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is just over 67 and down -10 bps from yesterday.
BITCOIN RETREATS
The bitcoin price is down -4.2% from this time yesterday, now at US$92,026. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.7%.
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75 Comments
UNDERWHELMED, COMING UP SHORT
Yesterday we reported that Ryman (RYM, #17) was seeking $1 bln from shareholders and new equity to pay down debt. Today we can report they 'only' raised $719 mln through its $313 mln underwritten institutional placement, and the institutional component of its $688 mln entitlement offer. When trading resumed, their equity prices fell -19.6% (and down *-27% in a week), and that dragged the market sharply lower. RYM has lost more than $800 mln of value over the past week. It's been a huge week of value destruction given Spark lost more than $1 bln earlier.
Thinker: Remember though once the new shares are issued the market capitalisation will increase accordingly so its only a temporary blip in the market capitalisation and as such wider index.
Thinker: Remember though once the new shares are issued the market capitalisation will increase accordingly so its only a temporary blip in the market capitalisation and as such wider index.
Ryman down 27.9% today. Similar to the more speculative crypto tokens in last night's crash.
In other news, people complain about having to pay less than a tank of gas for the ongoing ability to complain (and point out the errors of others).
Here's a link: Our commenting access is changing | interest.co.nz
Part of me agrees but another part thinks that all people should be able to voice their opinions so we get a consensus view on issues from both the perspective well off (ie those who have a spare $100) and the those who really struggling out there (and don’t have a spare $100).
Now we will only get views from those who aren’t financially struggling - from which we aren’t therefore getting a complete picture of how the economy really is for all people living in the country. From which we may conclude that everything is better than it really is as the poor no longer have a voice on the platform.
From which we may conclude that everything is better than it really is as the poor no longer have a voice on the platform.
Slightly more serious than usual questions: What is the percentage of the population that currently has internet access? Let's stick to the NZ population even though those domiciled outside our fair shores can and do log in and comment.
Leading on from this, of the proportion that don't have internet access, how many are classified as poor?
My point being, the truely poor probably can't even afford to get onto the internet (or at least not from home) to get here in the first place. Hopefuilly this doesn't come off as elitist.
Commenter "pacifica" might be able to speak to this (if they still come on here).
Should the extremely poor minority gain access to the internet do you think they’ll spend their time making concise insights and opinions on a financial website worth reading? Or will they jump on TikTok and watch other dopamine inducing content? What planet do you live on (insert laugh emoji here)
So, by IO's reasoning I should go comment on cooking sites, even though I'm very poor at even just making a sandwich. Never mind, I have an opinion and I can tell all these great chefs what I think and what they're doing wrong, after all, I eat (very well btw) and I have taste buds.
You're more than welcome to provide critique of even a great chef's cooking. Nobody is going to look down on you because you can't make a simple sandwich, try be a little less insecure.
How does a good chef get better if people don't provide well reasoned critique for them to build and grow from? Even better, you probably won't have to pay $100 per year for that privilege.
Wow, we certainly have a very different view of the world. You think someone bad in a certain field is welcome to tell someone with great expertise, talent and experience how to do things. I don't.
Hey maybe I should coach the AB's next, even though I've never played rugby in my life, that's your life viewpoint.
Yes, it is indeed disappointing mfd. Learning from those who are good at what they're doing has worked out pretty well for me so far, and I'm not about to change this strategy. But I grant you that there seems to be more and more people who think they can just make up their own reality and state that their imaginary world is "true".
Are you feeling okay? You certainly have some weird perspectives going on, argument ad absurdum and false equivalences galore.
For example, you spent yesterday conflating people choosing not to pay for an ad-free premium subscription with theft, and now you're suggesting that having an opinion about something instantly means I'm suggesting you should fill a world class role.
I'm feeling great, thanks NZDan. You keep learning about relationships from people who get divorced 3 times, learn about fitness and well-being from people who are badly out of shape and learn about money from people who don't have any. That's fine, it's your choice, it's just not mine.
Wouldn't it make sense to learn from other people's mistakes?
I'm not saying you take their advice as gospel, but someone who has divorced 3 times might give you a lot more insight than someone who's been married for 50 years. You could learn about the importance of fitness and well-being from someone sharing their experience about struggling to climb a flight of stairs, or being in hospital with pneumonia.
You might have to stop being a narcissist for a minute though.
I'm not saying you take their advice as gospel, but someone who has divorced 3 times might give you a lot more insight than someone who's been married for 50 years
About getting divorced maybe.
You might have to stop being a narcissist for a minute though.
That was 2023's mental health buzzword. I'm not sure what it is this year, maybe we can recycle "trauma" or ADHD.
Fact is we are all narcissistic to a degree. An actual narcissist won't know they're one, and wouldn't accept your diagnosis even if evidenced.
You're right they won't see it.
The history of mankind as we know it from the Empires, the Church through colonisation and capitalism, the class systems, and resulting economic theory, leans towards the extreme end of the narcisstic spectrum, if one were to apply a psychological observation. It's easy to suggest that what economics justifies as human nature is unbalanced narcissism, and that sort of environment will only encourage more.
It also connects to other teachings around ego, the masculine/feminine as taught in Taoism, Hindu, indigenous and pagan wisdom, and the teachings of Yeshua.
Very valid teachings for humanity going forward, but way over the heads of most here.
It’s not just the poor, but the young. Young dudes and dudettes have plenty of websites they use, if one starts charging I reckon they’ll just abandon it.
But at the end of the day I don’t have any issue with David needing to make some extra coin to keep the business afloat. And if people don’t want to pay to use it, that’s their decision too.
Agreed. It's ultimately David's decision to make based on his own balanced and informed consideration for the running costs of this platform.
Some people can afford $100 year, some cannot justify $100 per year and some cannot afford it.
Hopefully the comments section doesn't dwindle into an endless battle of the toxic "brotagonists", arguing in circles with one another over who has the shiniest green tick.
If you can't afford $100 a year, then perhaps you shouldn't be commenting on a financial news site?
I can afford many things
I also got options of varying obligation
I'm not sure the positive things I get from comments outweighs the negative.
I guess ill find out if I miss it.
Pardon. Think about it. With some justification you remind us repeatedly of the depth of your research to support both your analysis and predictions. That in itself contradicts the last phrase in your post. Have though, never found that concerning but the dismissive delivery sometimes, carries both smugness and arrogance in so much those that you are belittling are unenlightened going on ignorant. Go back and read some of your contributions. Appreciate your credentials as a former teacher, and the preparation and knowledge that undoubtedly advantaged your students, but blimey I bet you didn’t browbeat them by flaunting that. Think about it.
I was never a teacher - where did you get that from? I have taught - but don't extrapolate that by assumption.
As for the rest - Life of Brian comes to mind. If one is disseminating stuff (science communication, is probably the formal term) it cannot be anything other than 'telling'. If one has done one's homework properly, one's posits should rarely - if ever - be up for rebuttal. But, the further down the learning-path one goes, the less the accompanying cohort (Jonathan Livingston Seagull, up at the next level - he too was 'misunderstood', while trying to pass on 'truths'.
Strangely applicable - Breakfast Flock...
Apologies for the assumption. Not unusually I obviously misinformed myself. As to why? I recall quite some time ago when I was discussing, with my good wife, some material you had provided we thought your accompanying overlay was how a good teacher (haven’t met that many myself) would have put it. So guess that became an attachment.
I am glad you have a tick, I have a 50/50% approval of your posts, so you test me some days, but I enjoy them especially telling the truth about homes algo. I even read the ones I do not approve of... even if i have to click read more
These is no point living in an echo chamber
Yvil, is that you?
It didn't sound like complaining. It came across as a generally adult discussion about the merits of said commenting access. It was probably one of the better discussions on this site for a while.
Not everyone is here to complain, put down other commenters, or brag about their financial nous and trading successes.
Some offer valid insights into fundamental flaws in economic and monetary theory, that have real world and long term socioeconomic consequences. Many here are aware of the imbalances and iniquities that have developed over time. Many want to remain blind, but others may use the knowledge in the real world to inform others. Not everyone lacks empathy or the willingness to influence positive change.
If we don't know the history, origin and mechanics of the operating system, we're not going to elect real change at the voting booth.
Although I agree with you re:conversations we should be having, end of the day this is a financial news site, with the odd bit of politics, and geopolitics.
People are more interested in "can I survive through retirement" or "will I afford a house" than "much of the foundations we depend on are shoddy"
Many of the flaws are why houses are less affordable than they used to be, you know this. The fact they've become more linked to retirement than they used to be is also one of the many flaws.
It's also a reason why we as a nation have less capital and need overseas money, which is the hot topic of the times.
This site has begun including many articles with alternate views to the status quo, mainstream narrative.
Fact is, the issues we're discussing are all connected to the shoddiness, and you know this. We ultimately have a responsibility to future generations and society, just like our ancestors laid the foundation for us, unless we really have become a species of narcisstic rich pricks.
My point was there's a core set of subjects that get the lions share of noise because of people's own self interest (or tribalism, I guess).
The fact other subjects that should be discussed often get received with crickets shows people aren't really that interested in the wider picture.
Just for a start, maybe with the exception of PDK, most of the posters here, probably need to live poorer lives than they currently do, often while wanting to have more.
We are, I'm just not as confident we will be able to overcome inherent issues of larger civilisations devolving into hierarchical power structures that prescribe very limited zeitgeists to adhere to.
You'd require a fairly rapid disassembly of the status quo, in exchange for a new modality based on better understanding, that occured without much of the planet tearing itself apart.
It's a fairly decent truth.
We are raised like a donkey chasing a carrot on a string. Fulfilment is just around the corner, maybe quicker if you can obtain enough goodies.
People can make whatever choices they'd like, the results are fairly reliable. Some of the wealthiest people I know don't have that much in their net asset column.
Being dollar-poor does not guarantee being life-rich, but the folk I see as life rich, are usually not dollar rich.
Went to Brian Turner's send-off recently - lived very modestly but one of the richest lives I've ever seen. Read his 'Into the wider world' - leaves most for dead.
It's coming Yvil be patient. Beginning of March tariffs to be implemented. A copy/paste of my comment this morning:
Trump says tariffs on Canada and Mexico 'will go forward'
Bank of Canada governor says trade war is different for the economy than COVID
And BoE is forecasting 3.7% inflation in the third quarter.
Since the Fed cut rates in September and Trump took office, inflation’s been creeping up steadily:
US Inflation Rate: Sep 2.4%, Oct 2.6%, Nov 2.7%, Dec 2.9%, Jan 3.0%
UK Inflation Rate: Sep 1.7%, Oct 2.3%, Nov 2.6%, Dec 2.5%, Jan 3.0%
Japan Inflation Rate: Sep 2.5%, Oct 2.3%, Nov 2.9%, Dec 3.6%, Jan 4.0%
Tick, tick, tick a steady climb is my prediction, month by month. 4-5% by this time next year. Could be seeing central bank hikes end of 2025. A repeat of 1976, a second wave of inflation but in 2026.
In 1976, the annual inflation rate was 5.7%.
please refer to chart 1
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc250223/
What appears to be an endless bull market advance is actually a classic two-tiered blowoff in speculative glamour stocks. If you missed Bill Hester’s excellent analysis of large-cap market concentration, Slimming Down a Top-Heavy Market, now may be a worthwhile opportunity to recognize how extreme the current situation has become. The chart below offers some sense of how much investors now need to rely on a “permanently high plateau” in valuations.
With regard to the record ratio of financial market capitalization to GDP, the government deficits of the past eight years have bloated the corporate profits on which investors are placing extreme price/earnings multiples while calling it “stock market capitalization.” Meanwhile, the highest income earners have also accumulated the cash and securities that the government issued to finance the deficits. As a result, the massive deficits of recent years are a significant portion of what the deepest pockets presently call “wealth.”
I’m sorry, but there’s a certain irony in the ruse of billionaires consolidating their power under the pretense of “reducing deficits” when it’s exactly the massive deficits of recent years that have boosted their income, profits, and financial market “wealth.” There’s a certain irony to see foxes with mouths full of feathers claiming that they’re defending the henhouse; minding the store while their fingers are deep in the cookie jar of government contracts and foreign quid pro quo. They’re selling a house of cards, and everybody’s merrily picking out furniture
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