Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ANZ has cut fixed rates, and their new 2 year is now 4.99%. Here are the details. SBS Bank announced its -50 bps floating rate change but oddly it won't apply that to existing customers until March 21. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
ANZ has cut its TD rate card rather hard. More info is here. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
AFFORDABLE HOUSING OUT OF REACH FOR MORE
Statistics NZ says people have been spending a higher proportion of their money on housing costs than they did in the past. A third of low-income households spend more than 40% of money on housing.
CHILD POVERTY PROGRESS MINOR IN THE PAST BUT ENDS IN LATEST REVIEW
Child poverty rates fell for every year since 2018, but they didn't improve in the year to June 2024, according to a new StatsNZ update.
HOT, HOT DEMAND
There was another blockbuster NZ Government bond tender today. There were 154 bids worth $2.5 bln for the $500 mln available. Only 31 of those bids won anything. The heady demand drove yields lower, although only slightly.
NZX UPDATE
The NZX50 was down -0.4% in 3pm trade, up +0.6% over the past week, but down -1.0% over the past month. There are only 29 gainers today, led by Vulcan Steel (+2.0%), a2 Milk (+1.2%), Air NZ (+1.2%), and Vital Healthcare (+1.1%). There are 58 decliners however, the largest major being SkyCity (-7.5%), then NZME (-3.7%), Auckland Airport (-3.6%), and Napier Port (-3.3%). Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.4% today.
'WOKE' BANKING BILL DRAWN FROM BALLOT
NZ First’s ‘woke bank’ member’s bill has been drawn from the ballot and will be automatically introduced to Parliament this term. The proposed law would make it illegal to deny banking services on any non-commercial grounds. It aims to force banks to write more loans to fossil fuel businesses and farmers. It's not a government bill and has been proposed by MP Andy Foster on behalf of his party, which has been frustrated by banks unwillingness to provide services to petrol stations and coal mines. Having been drawn from the ballot, the Bill is entitled to a first reading where MPs will debate the proposal and vote on whether to send it to a select committee for consideration. It would need support from a majority of MPs to proceed any further. It's also possible for the Government to block the first reading by prioritising other legislation and allowing the proposed bill to expire at the end of the Parliamentary term. Federated Farmers recently called on MPs to support the Bill, saying petrol stations and gun stores were legitimate rural businesses and should be allowed access to financial services. ACT welcomed the introduction of the Bill, but said its team would look into the details before deciding whether to support or oppose it at first reading.
CHINESE AI & SOCIAL MEDIA APPs COP PARLIAMENTARY SERVICE BAN
The New Zealand Herald was sent an emailed note from Parliamentary Service, in which Speaker of the House Gerry Brownlee says that he and the Parliamentary Service Commission have decided to block the DeepSeek artificial intelligence (AI) application from today. Not only that, the WeChat messaging app, CapCut for making videos and Red Note/Red Note TikTok clone will also be blocked on PS-managed devices from the 24th, and removed from the automatically. This is in line what Australia did recently. There is no mention of hugely popular TIkTok, a Chinese social media app favoured by parliamentarians and government ministers, being banned as well.
SPUTTERING ENGINES
Our national airline says it may have as many as 11 jets out of service between now and the end of June, and it warns of lower profits in second half of year. Their share price is up +0.6% so far today.
HIGHER PROFITS ON STUNTED GROWTH
And this may affect Auckland International Airport. The monopoly's half-year profit surged, but it bemoans lagging airline capacity, saying New Zealand’s aviation growth remains grounded. Their share price is down -3.6% so far today.
SHOP AROUND. GET MULTIPLE QUOTES
Falling livestock numbers has processors scrambling for product for their clients and to run their plants. The pressure is intense. Companies are finding they need to pay more but are desperate that other farmers don't know what they are paying. So most have now withdrawn the publication of livestock schedules. Readers who use our rural comparison service need to know of the sudden opacity. AFFCO and ANZCO have always been opaque, and now they are joined by most others. That leaves you with the intense task of 'calling around'. It is probably worth it at present. We would love to hear what you are being offered (and we will keep your identity confidential). When there are few buyers and many sellers, without transparency, many sellers will be disappointed. (The exceptions are Silver Fern Farms and Taylor Preston, so hats off to them.)
SHOPPING AROUND
Kiwibank is out in Australian wholesale markets looking for an investment bank to help it raise NZ$500 mln to bolster its capital. It is a well-signaled move, but now we are seeing market action (at an early stage). These will be funds that won't come cheap.
LOW & UNCHANGED
China kept its February Loan Prime Rates unchanged at their record low levels.
THE AUSSIE JOBLESS RATE RISES TO 4.1% IN JANUARY FROM 4.0% IN DECEMBER
In Australia, their employed workforce grew by +44,000 in January, above what was expected (+20,000), but less than the December gain (+60,000). But there was a virtuous twist to the January levels with a shift to full-time roles, with +54,000 more of them, and part-time roles shrank -10,000. Average weekly earnings rose +4.6% from a year ago. But high tax rates and inflation at 3.0% will mean most workers felt they just stayed even. (For perspective the NZ jobless rate is 5.1%.)
NATIONALISING A KEY STEELWORKS
And staying in Australia, the SA State Government and the Federal Government have "seized control" of the Whyalla steelworks - essentially nationalising it. And they are having to tip in AU$2.5 bln to keep it afloat. Its British owner has had a very chequered history.
RERATED LOWER
And we should probably note that key Aussie pillar bank NAB has seen its share price fall -15% in a week. CBA is down -6.5%, Westpac is down -11% and ANZ is down -8.0% over the same period. Aussie bank shares are being re-rated lower, and because they are very widely held in Aussie superannuation and KiwiSaver portfolio's savers will notice.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be unchanged again, but keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -2 bps at 3.77%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -1 bp at 4.56%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.70%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 4.74% while today's RBNZ fix was at 4.70% and up +1 bp. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.52% and up +2 bps from yesterday. Their 2yr is down -1 bp at 4.26%, so that positive curve is now at +26 bps.
EQUITIES MOSTLY LOWER
The NZX50 is down -0.8% in late Thursday trade and falling from the 3pm levels above. And the ASX200 is down -1.5% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -1.1% in early Thursday trade. Hong Kong is down -1.7%, and Shanghai is down -0.1% its open. Singapore has opened up +0.1%. Wall Street was up +0.2% on the S&P500 in Wednesday trade.
OIL ON HOLD
The oil price is little-changed from yesterday, now just under US$72/bbl in the US, and at under US$76/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE DIPS
The carbon price is still within its range, but today is down -50c at NZ$62.50/NZU. The next release of units at the official auction is on March 19, 2025. But that auction's floor price is $68/NZU, so it is heading for a failure. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD HOLDS
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$2 from this time yesterday, now at US$2936/oz.
NZD FIRMS SLIGHTLY
The Kiwi dollar has risen +10 bps from this time yesterday, now at 57 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +40 bps at 90 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 54.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is just over 67.2 and up +20 bps.
BITCOIN FIRMS
The bitcoin price is up +1.3% from this time yesterday, now at US$96,807. Volatility of the past 24 hours has still been modest at just on +/- 1.0%.
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101 Comments
Ken Henry is a prominent Aussie economist and public servant who has played a significant role in shaping Australia's economic policy over the past few decades. Today he is lashing out at a system that is basically screwing over young Aussies in favor of the boomers. TBH, when Henry was in power, I have no doubt he played up to vested interests. Somewhat hypocritical IMO.
Henry said voters, concerned about self-interest, were electing populist governments that were engaged in “intergenerational larceny”. They were aided by vested interests that did not want any change because they benefited from the current inequitable tax system.
Henry, the former head of the federal Treasury, used a speech to the Per Capita tax summit in Melbourne on Thursday morning to argue every government over the past decade had breached budget rules by allowing the tax system to degrade to such a point that it is stealing from young people and unborn generations of Australians.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/wilful-act-of-bastardry-henry-c…
Fair question Z. Why would the boomers give a rats about future generations?
Nevertheless, Henry is also referring to younger people who are in existence right now. And I know much thought doesn't go into these things, but you need these people to unlock the value of your piece of the Ponzi pie. So in due respect, it should be something for you to think about.
What % of the voting pool do boomers make up, 22%?
There is none lazier than those who blame boomers for their woes.
Another fair point. If younger demogs want change and to wrestle things their way, they have to fight for it through the ballot box.
Easier said than done though. Non-govt vested interests such as banks, tradfi, etc are very much with the boomers. Good luck fighting against that.
My feeling is that the younger demogs feel that fighting for change is hopeless. They're resigned to their fate until the boomers and sycophantic Gen X'ers die off.
Exactly.
Who should young Kiwis vote for? The current lot that is openly committed to lining the pockets of property investors and banks, much of which benefits older voters?
Or the other lot that are too chicken to do anything meaningful to create an even playing field for young Kiwis and instead spend all their political mileage going after woke causes pandering to minorities?
Easy to say figjt back for your placd when there are entire powerful lobbies pitted against your interests.
Many have stopped complaining and are voting with their feet instead. That's a far worse outcome for boomers than if the youth created a party that represented their interests and worked their way up for years to grab 5% or more of party vote.
That may well be the case, but did you engineer it with malicious intent or were they simply in the right place at the right time?
Your parents and grandparents made incredible sacrifices, it's impossible to engineer a linear improvement in standard of living across generations.
Your parents and grandparents made incredible sacrifices, it's impossible to engineer a linear improvement in standard of living across generations.
OK. Are you suggesting that living standards in developed countries in terms of affordability at the lower rung of the hierarchy of needs should deteriorate over time? In that case, shouldn't that mean we're a "developing" economy? It would make sense that in developed economies, shelter, mobility, food would require less exchange of labor over time.
Perhaps the trade off for higher cost of living is greater access to computing power in our phones.
Umm... they created the policies, bought into the narrative, created the slick marketing to encourage it, hold the positions of power to enforce it, lacked the wisdom and foresight, and now accuse the next gens of being entitled and not working hard enough. They'd rather maintain the status quo than support changes to bring a sense of balance and unity.
Many of them are aware of the issues but have the selfish attitude that it's not their problem. "As long as it doesn't affect my wealth". "I worked hard for my retirement and I don't care". They taught the next gens.
Of course it's not that simple. They were a generation that came from perceived scarcity and poverty. They were taught to blindly obey. Ignorance is bliss.
You're right though that blaming them solves nothing. Continuing the same ways solves nothing either.
Well articulated.
Why are we having a conversation about the treaty when the real issue on the table in NZ is housing affordibility for the next generation, Parkeha or Maori, or Pacifica or Chinese or Indian...
I suspect for Maori this is now the biggest economic challenge to equality?
is this a great distraction exercise, like a cycle bridge?
Different world back then.Govt controlled radio & TV. Latter was black and white and regionalised, each one their own presenters. Newspapers were overtly pro one party or the other. Fast communications were telegrams. The electorate of the time could only vote based on information as it had traditionally always been made available up until then. The young of then, as far as information flow, were relatively in a dungeon compared to what’s available to their counterparts today.
I blame boomers, and I have very little woes personally.
The collective cohort made some very selfish decisions over the years when it came to things such as Superannuation, and to this day flat out refuse to acknowledge it. Mind you, they were in their 20's when they voted Muldoon so young and stupid like they claim today's youth are. Backed up by their inability to save 2 x their income to buy a basic entry level house with cash, when TD rates were double digits, instead taking out 2nd mortgages and vendor finance at silly interest rates.
You always blame boomers. In a generation's time, people your age now, will be blaming your cohort. You are just one person in your cohort, but they'll blame everyone, like you do. That's why someone above calls it 'lazy'. What are your cohort doing to fix 'all the problems caused by boomers'? Sitting, waiting for them to die off, again, 'lazy'...
people hate act but act believes in user pays, the biggest users of NZ Services are often the boomers... if enough young people voted for user pays, the boomers using the health system the most would pay the most....
they also want to limit nz super, and the young have time to save, just sayin
I think you'll find the Boomer reputation will continue to be passed down for generations to come. Generation X blame boomers, Millennials blame boomers, Gen Z blame boomers. Don't worry, Gen Alpha will follow suit.
It's a bit hard to fix the shit sandwich when over 20% of our tax revenue goes back in the form of benefits regardless of need to fulfil some "social contract" many of us were not even alive to have a say in. Wonder what the average age is in the political party donor lists...
I think you'll find the Boomer reputation will continue to be passed down for generations to come. Generation X blame boomers, Millennials blame boomers, Gen Z blame boomers. Don't worry, Gen Alpha will follow suit.
Not sure I agree. Recommend you read The Fourth Turning.
Read it around 2021 - the world and the last 100 years of history made (as makes) far more sense to me after reading.
It’s not a quick read - found I had to read a few pages, then digest it for a few days. Took a few months to get through. But the Strauss- Howe generational theory is very thought provoking.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss–Howe_generational_theory
I no longer hold grudges towards the behaviour of other generations - each is conditioned by the failures (or successes) of the generations that proceeded them.
So you're all blaming it on the boomers and sitting back and doing nothing about it. Well that won't get you to a better place. ITGuy has made a good suggestion above. I voted ACT the last two elections, I'm not against user pays. I'm doing something at least, and I'm the target of your blame game. Also, as I've said to you before about your boomer blaming, during my voting life, what party could I have voted for to not have what we have now? I never voted for Muldoon by the way...
It’s kind of the boomers fault, but kinda not. Really the boomers were just the start of a society dominated by self interest. That’s definitely carried through to younger people today, and might even be worse.
I am not hopeful that we will see any reversal of materialistic self interest. Indeed I think it is worsening
Boomers were brought up in a world where it seemed obvious that things were always improving. Technology and more enlightened social systems were making great strides. Things were supposed to get better and better so many Boomers didn't worry too much about the wellbeing of subsequent generations because it was a given. I think Generation X also had this mindset. You see this in the way many don't particularly support their children and even boast about making sure they spend all their money in their retirement. I don't personally subscribe to this attitude and intend to leave an inheritance while assisting as much as I can in the meantime.
As I am a late Boomer I recall things starting to change in the late seventies as a young person just starting out.. People were saying things like, "No one owes you a living sonny". I thought at the time, "Wait, what, no, yes they do!".
Just for the record I have not yet voted for Act , but i suspect voting for National or Labour will never change anything, as i mentioned above,
especially in MMP... I suspect most young just give up and go offshore, it made me, 8 years in investment banking in London...
There is really no future for STEM grads in NZ
Anyone else hear the Trademe founder on Hoskins this am, so much sense
What makes you think I'm just sitting back and doing nothing about it? I also voted ACT ever since I was let down by National in 2008 (first time voter age at the time).
A good part of the reason Boomers get so much flak, is their unwillingness to accept that in 1975 that "social contract" might have been a far too generous promise to uphold leading into the early to mid 2000's. Rather than accept it was a huge folly, they double down on their entitlement mentality and make all sorts of suggestions about the younger generation's frivolousness and work ethic to deflect the heat away from ever being sensible about the dole for oldies. And then get upset about the response they receive.
If you voted National in 2008, using your logic, you've helped cause this mess. Blaming boomers will achieve nothing, other than wind us up. By the way, I'm also pro means testing super, but neither major party seems to want to go there, and I think it will require cross party support.
Let's see, I voted John key because he was calling out the housing crisis in 2007 and I thought he would sort it. I was misled.
Boomers (not yourself personally) voted Muldoon because he campaigned on scrapping compulsory super contributions, instead opting for tax payers to foot the bill for super.
So yes, in a way you could say I've helped cause this mess, but Boomers who did vote Muldoon voted exactly for what we have today.
Thought I would copy this from one of Aotearoa's higher profile fund managers when comparing SP500 vs NZX (in USD). NZX in USD terms has basically returned zero in past 5 years. And in gold terms around -50%.
What's happened to Godzone?
The performance of the NZX has been woeful.
I think this is a reflection of the state of our economy and high interest rate settings among other things. Let's see what happens today.
But for investors, if you have had all your money invested locally, between the NZX and the property market, it's been a tough few years.
Thanks David. And add in some solid dividends. Contact divi is up 14% year on year, NZX, New Zealand's Exchange - Announcements, Delivering New Renewables While Supporting Security Of Sup
Is that like for like figures? I seem to recall nzx is a total returns index (cap gains + dividends) whereas most indices don't include dividends.
Edit:
Asx200 net total return 1yr: 13.12%, this includes dividends reinvested on their ex-dividend date.
Nikkei225 net total return 3.9%
S&P net total 24.65%
"Child poverty rates fell for every year since 2018, but they didn't improve in the year to June 2024"
Hey. You voted for it. (I didn't).
You wanted big tax cuts for Landlords. And tiny, pathetically tiny, PAYE tax cuts for yourselves.
But our kids? And our poor? Fuck them! Right?
They don't work. And they pay no tax! So screw them, right?
NZ is no longer the place I grew up. Shame on you.
Do you not think Chris, that perhaps the current recession, has more to do with the worsening of child poverty then National...
Sorry mate , but as a Right voter, you will notice I Constantly stick the knife into Luxys lack of vision and plan, but seriously we have to look at Orr and Robbo for the current BS we are in. Labour talk a good game but have no idea how to liftNZ out of poverty, the Greens would only make poverty worse, but while you are on your bike, living under led powered by solar, and singing kumbaeya, you might not notice how poor you are... and you can always have a spliff to take your mind off it...
Child poverty is really: Child lack of access to energy and resources.
I have been pointing out to Labourites, for years, that while you can be more equitable, the bigger problem is the sinking lid.
So lowering population has to be a given, if you want to reduce poverty - of any echelon.
Energy-blindness - it's not just the Right; the Left is just as ignorant. The Leith branch had quite a lot of this stuff presented to them - but someone threw the babies out with the bathwater....
"Modelling suggests that enough natural hydrogen exists to meet humanity's demand for hydrogen for thousands of years, however most of this cannot be extracted economically.[5][6] Natural hydrogen has been identified in many source rocks in areas beyond the sedimentary basins where oil companies typically operate.[7][8][9] As of 2023, only one well of natural hydrogen has been in exploited, producing enough gas to generate electricity for a village in Mali"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_hydrogen#:~:text=Modelling%20sugg….
I prefer the nuclear waste inside diamond battery idea....
By encapsulating radioactive material inside diamonds, we turn a long-term problem of nuclear waste into a nuclear-powered battery and a long-term supply of clean energy.” The team have demonstrated a prototype 'diamond battery' using Nickel-63 as the radiation source.
a 5000 year battery... https://www.bristol.ac.uk/cabot/what-we-do/diamond-batteries/#:~:text=B….
Julian Simon was confident we humans would find a way.
This is similar issue with nuclear, it takes a long time to build a nuclear power station and it takes quite a bit of energy and materials. And yet we're spunking away the limited amount that remains on holidays, cars and junk. By some accounts the threshold for when we could feasibly transition to nuclear has already passed. I mean in a straight up 'replacing fossil with nuclear', ignoring all the other issues with nuclear.
A long while back I used to go out with a cop, then later I had a cop as a flat mate, not good work stories....
Yes its the parents fault, but the children can be stuck in a living hell... and they then project that hell back on the society that did not help them for the rest of their lives.
Gang members are made not born.
Thanks, you can achieve little unless you are willing to compromise
to stich a deal you must be able to see things from the other side.
a great deal is a deal but neither side got all they wanted but both sides got enough.
The issue is that the right and left like to simply there message for there voters
so then they can not compromise (least they look weak)
the only way you can resolve this is to run referendums....
but how do you think this would work out for treaty issues.
‘Many forms of Government have been tried, and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.…’
Winston S Churchill, 11 November 1947
Poverty is relative because of how it is measured here ie below 50% of the median household income. Those children are not necessarily in Poverty, but some are because their parents spend their money on alcohol, cannabis, tobacco, meth, and tattoos. Many of those in poverty are obese because their parents give them a big serving of chips for dinner (and nothing else). Around the world, 28,000 people die every day from starvation - now that is real poverty.
NZDJPY last calls, bus is about to leave.....
meanwhile those cheap puts are getting more expensive....
ASX faces worst profit season in two years as banks sell off
The sharemarket has erased over $30 billion in market value this week as the big banks took the sheen off an otherwise surprisingly resilient earnings season.
This is interesting. Banks selling off. CBA down 7.2% this week. Mind you a scratch wound for one of the most expensive banks on the planet.
The S&P/ASX 200 Financials Index has fallen 6.5% over six consecutive sessions, weighed down by poor earnings updates from major players like NAB, Westpac, and Bendigo Bank.
This marks one of the steepest corrections since September 2024, when the index dropped 6.3% over ten days as investors rotated out of banks and into beaten-down mining stocks. However, the catalyst this time is different, with three leading banks flagging a broad range of pressures, including shrinking net interest margins, higher funding costs, and intensifying competition.
https://www.tradingview.com/news/marketindex:34b55dbc4094b:0-have-the-g…
its ok mate, its Maori Science
https://www.synapsys.co.nz/case-study/silver-fern-farms-a-maori-led-app…
Seems to be a few people getting it and saying they are not ANZ staff.
I’m sure it would be against their policies to tell lies to their customers and share a rate that is not available to the public. I’m not sure what they would be achieving by blowing up their phone lines with people chasing a rate that doesn’t exist.
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