Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Heretaunga Building society trimmed its two year fixed rate to 6.00%. We are expecting a notable change to be announced tomorrow. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Heretaunga Building Society cut its 6 month TD rate to 4.90%. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
LISTINGS SURGE
Listings on Trade Me Property are at a five year high in January while asking prices were in decline.
10 MONTH CONTRACTION ENDS
The services sector expanded slightly in January, as did the manufacturing sector - results that point toward an economic recovery later in the year.
BACK TO A STEADY STATE?
Population gain from migration dropped below +1000 in December. The outflow of NZ citizens appears to have peaked while inflows of foreign migrants have declined.
GETTING BACK TO PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS
Overseas tourist arrivals tend to peak in December and this latest month was no different. December visitor arrivals were +12.8% higher than a year ago, approaching 2016 levels. But they were -11% lower than the December 2018 levels. One source of tourists has fully recovered back to pre-pandemic levels - the US.
NZX UPDATE
The NZX50 is up +0.6% in 3pm trade, up +1.5% over the past week, but down -0.5% over the past month. There were 45 gainers today, led by a2 Milk's +17% rise on a strong interim earnings report. (And the company now has $1 bln in cash reserves!) Synlait has risen a similar rise. Freightways is up +2.0, and Spark up +1.7%. There were 35 decliners, led by Kathmandu down -2.4%, Mercury down -2.0%, manawa Energy down -1.7%, and Auckland Airport down -1.1%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare was up 1.0% today
A SLOW START TO THE WEEK
Global financial markets will head into Tuesday (NZT) trade quiet because it is Presidents Day in the US. Wall Street will not be open, nor banks.
POWDER SHED PENALTY
Rangi Wyatt Stephen Savage Senior has been ordered to pay compensation of $126,214 to investors and a pecuniary penalty of $142,500 for breaching the Financial Markets Conduct Act in a High Court judgment. The proceedings were based on a regulated public offer for the sale of shares in The Powder Shed Tokoroa Limited (Powder Shed). Mr Savage was the sole director of Powder Shed. The High Court found Mr Savage breached the FMCA by making false or misleading representations, making a regulated offer without a Product Disclosure Statement (PDS), and accepting an application for a transfer of financial products without a PDS.
CONSERVATIVE MORTGAGE BOOK
In its October-December 2024 quarterly update, Westpac Group presentation documents showed a small uplift in 30+ day mortgage arrears to 1.08%. It has been a long time since this metric has exceeded 1%, even if it is still very low. 91% of their New Zealand mortgage book has an LVR of 80% or less; 50% is less than 60%.
COVID ECHOES
An Auckland man was sentenced to community detention for tax fraud after falsely claiming $23,600 in COVID relief money. Vaibhav Kaushik was charged with using a document to claim a pecuniary advantage and was sentenced in the Auckland District Court to six months community detention – the maximum allowed – and the judge ordered reparation to be paid in full by 1 April 2025. The defrauded money was used it for personal items and gambling.
SWAP RATES PROBABLY LITTLE-CHANGED
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be little-changed, but keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -2 bps on Friday at 3.82%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +6 bps at 4.49%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +4 bps at 1.68%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +7 bps at 4.68% while today's RBNZ fix was at 4.61% and up +2 bps. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.59% and up +1 bp from this morning. Their 2yr is unchanged at 4.26%, so that positive curve is still at +23 bps where it was on Friday.
EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 is up +0.6% in late Monday trade. But the ASX200 is down -0.8% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is unchanged in early Monday trade. Hong Kong is up +0.6%, but Shanghai is down a minor -0.1% its open. Singapore has opened up +0.4%. Wall Street won't be opening tomorrow due to their holiday. But the futures market indicates taht a +0.4% rise is on the cards when they do on Wednesday NZT.
OIL UNCHANGED
The oil price is unchanged from this morning, now just on US$70.50/bbl in the US, and at over US$74.50/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE UNCHANGED YET AGAIN
The carbon price is still within its tight range, today still at NZ$63/NZU. The next release of units at the official auction is on March 19, 2025. But that auction's floor price is $68/NZU, so it is heading for a failure. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD FIRMs
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$13 from this morning, now at US$2895/oz.
NZD FIRMISH
The Kiwi dollar has risen +10 bps from this morning, now at 57.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are holding at 90.20 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 54.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 67.4 and up +10 bps.
BITCOIN SLIPS
The bitcoin price is down -0.5% from this morning's open, now at US$96,562. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/- 0.8%.
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74 Comments
I just saw a shiney new black Tesla, with the plate 000XRP. Figure someone picked well and got a new toy.
Or signalling it's future price.
Bitcoin only yall, don't be a dummie.
Comes back to a Landcruiser.
I've seen (rather, not seen) some Teslas that have the same colour as wet asphalt . Almost impossible to see against a wet road . Completely insane
"For more than a decade, money manager Garvin Jabusch would show a chart of the planet’s rising temperatures when pitching investment ideas to clients, saying they could help save the planet and still make money. These days, he no longer uses the chart and avoids talking about climate change.
“I’ve given up on anyone ever caring about that,” said Jabusch, investment chief of Green Alpha Investments, which manages about $300 million.
He isn’t the only climate-focused investor downplaying references to global warming and related topics. Parnassus Investments, the biggest US sustainable-investing firm, has removed references on its website that its funds are “fossil-fuel free.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-14/-sustainable-investo…
OK so buy Dunedin rural land and start working out how to grow Mango's and Pineapples...
If others are being so stupid and you are 100% right, make the trade. Just walk over and pick up the money...
On a side note I think the needle is starting to move from denial to anger... I think the polls are starting to show a general dissatisfaction of the way events are unfolding.... it feels angry out there that NAct cannot just fix this little issue already...
my prediction is anger at others will grow in 2025.
before in 2026 people will start bargaining with themselves about how they could have personally played this better.
Mango and pineapple? Gee you are optimistic! We might get our pre-Little Ice Age kumara growing range back if we are lucky.
"Climate change seems a plausible explanation for the retreat of gardening, if not necessarily the only one. Kumara will not produce in soil temperatures of less than 150C for five consecutive months, conditions barely met in central New Zealand even today.20 A northward retreat of 150 km on temperature grounds implies a decline in mean annual temperature at sea level of about 10C. Looking at evidence of changing temperatures over the last millennium, it is apparent that an early period, estimated as 0.3-0.50C warmer on average than the twentieth century, was followed by a cold period of similar deviation below the twentieth century average. This is recorded in various sources."
https://ojs.victoria.ac.nz/jnzs/article/view/3987/3554
I am fully aware that the hot house will be short lived. as soon as the Greenland ice melt enters the Atlantic it will stop the currents dead in their tracks and we will be dealing with a full on ice age, and they tend to require a significant outside impulse to exit..
Greenland ice mass looks to be smack bang on the 1981-2010 mean surface mass balance. When will it start melting? Are you the guy who hoovered up CarisbrookMangoes.com?
https://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/surface/SMB_curves_LA_EN_2…
Atlantic overturning inferred from air-sea heat fluxes indicates no decline since the 1960s
Paid climate change deniers have a lot to answer for. Why don't you head down there Profile and tell them it's all a hoax.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/kumeu-flooding-crisis-leaders-push-for-to…
Here is another Group you can go and front up to
https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/360583533/council-cuts-funding-long-sta…
Interesting that you missed this chart on the same website...
https://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/mass/basin_GRACE_Large_EN.png
I think the bargaining happens before 2026, I think it's started for some. Definitely before people start growing mangos and pineapples in Dunedin.
"needle is starting to move" 💯
Definitely before people start growing mangos and pineapples in Dunedin
Deck chairs and sun umbrellas dotting the St Clair shore. Cocktails served by young South Asian men dressed in shorts, boat shoes, and neat polo shirts.
Evenings at Robbo's Copacabana Bar & Grill.
That sounds nice, I was with you until you mentioned the young asian men in shorts.
Are you suggesting that immigration from South Asia has nothing to with cheap labor?
Someone else answer this please?...
I’d rather south East Asian woman tbh. But that’s just me….
I’d rather south East Asian woman tbh. But that’s just me….
Serving cocktails is a man's job in South Asia. Anyway, to remove any weird connotations, might be best to have university students (at minimum wage) serving the cocktails, any gender or race. Just so there's no confusion.
Serving cocktails is a man's job in South Asia.
Outrageous sexist behaviour!
I think its a poorly designed joke, given Robbo has little interest in asian women.
I am not a fan of Robbo at all, but I defend his right to be himself till the bitter end.
lets keep sexuality out of interest.co.nz its beneath us all.
and while i am at it, I hope destiny church gets smashed here....
The people with all the money are old and couldn’t give a crap.
can I replace money with houses in the above statement?
The people with all the Houses are old and couldn’t give a crap.
I think me and you working in this collaborative fashion could perhaps solve New Zealand's problems Jimbo.
Most of the old people with money & houses were once young, homeless (=renting) and poor.
At an individual level everyone has done the capitalism thing and acted in self interest.
As a society we have failed to regulate the basic need for shelter,
funny we decided that we should not sell off water to others....
To when, what, 23? And bought the house on a single income, too?
There's a stark difference between the condition faced by today's FHB than yesteryears.
A 20% deposit today is the equivalent in income ratio terms to what a house could be purchased for in the yesteryears. Today's FHB must accumulate that when a term deposit is paying 5%.
A Boomer could've, with a bit of restraint, saved full purchase price for the house when TD rates were double digits. But they wouldn't have a tale of woe today if they didn't take out 2 mortgages with vendor finance, while the kids sleep on beds made from swappa crates.
And boomers were paying 18.5% on mortgages in 1990.
My dad was a farmer at the time, Williams and Kettles where charging 28% working capital funding....
that generation where tough, they had to shoot or bayonet people during WW2
now days we get our posts censored....
And they were still better off than FHB's paying 5% now.
Apparently excessive interest terms were/are illegal, but not when it's central bank enforced.
I would take a 18.5% mortgage of 2x my salary over a 4% mortgage at 8x my salary any day of the week
check your maths, or are you trading on the basis of knowing rates fell fast?
This specious argument pops up again and again and never seems to die.
Those high interest rates were because of the high inflation rates.
Money itself was losing value at a high rate.
Real interest rate = Interest rate - Inflation.
Sometimes inflation was so high they were paying negative real rates.
Inflation is great for paying a big debt.
Recall when Muldoon introduced the wage freeze, because wages were going up so fast during the 1970s.
Imagine taking out a loan in 1970 and by 1975 your debt burden has effectively halved just through wage inflation. On an income to debt basis, would be like the average household income today increasing by $25k per year, every year.
OK. Don't what to wheel out any DGM, but good to keep an even keel at times. And this is not directly about Aotearoa, so Dr Y, etc shouldn't get upset.
Owning a house in the US today is now more expensive than 2008 when the housing market crashed - housing costs as share of wallet. As a result, delinquency rates on Federal Housing Administration and Veterans Affairs loans reached 11.03% and 4.7%, respectively, at the end of 2024 according to the Mortgage Bankers Association
It’s the same story as at the peak of the subprime crisis. Buyers simply can’t afford the house. I know, the COVID housing mania at zero rates caused the largest boom ever. And different to Aotearoa, the US mortgage holders are trapped - if they sell and move, they lose the low-interest mortgage rate.
It really is a sh*t show that's been created.
Borrowers who got home loans through government-backed programs are increasingly falling behind on their payments, a potentially worrying signal for how lower-income Americans are faring in today’s economy.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/more-americans-with-government-loans-are…
US homeowners went in to the GFC with rates in the 8% range. So when the rates dropped it let them off the hook.
Its a very different position to now where you are saying they’re spending as much and can’t move. It’s far worse now…. but there needs to be some form of event to start the tsunami.
The defrauded money was used it for personal items and gambling.
Is "personal items" a euphemism? Enquiring minds...
The rest I just squandered...
JC - I love the expression dinged credit scores.
Going to see a lot more of this.
- Local leaders want Kumeū relocated after a report found no viable flood solutions.
- The only potential solution, a $163 million dam, posed significant risks if it failed.
- Councillor Greg Sayers advocates for a managed retreat and relocating the town centre.
“There is no cavalry coming to save the town,” said Rodney Local Board member Guy Wishart, who lost his Kumeū home to the 2023 floods and moved to Helensville.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/kumeu-flooding-crisis-leaders-push-for-to…
I miss wingman a lot at times like this....
I wonder if he still lurks or if he's too busy sandbagging the section
Are you suggesting Kumeu's "long-term" (that's a clue) flooding is due to me driving a car rather than say, developing and building on a flood plain?
No, I'm suggesting that Kumeu's long-term flooding becoming so frequent that the town needs to relocate is due to you driving a car.
But do you know what? In some ways it doesn't really matter what you think, or what I think. This is the reality of what is going to happen. You can accept it and plan accordingly or bury your head in the sand because you don't want to accept you're wrong.
We’re not debating the problem itself, rather the cause. The more we build on dubious land, the more problems we banks for the future.
Yeah, your selfish car has a lot to answer for. Flooding the Kumeu post office twice in 1926 and again in 1934.
https://hwe.niwa.co.nz/search/summary/Startdate/n-a/Enddate/n-a/Regions…
what a biatch of history....
Seems like there is no good reason commercial property owners there should expect taxpayer/ratepayer money to bail them out, given floods were a known occurrence.
When I said there was going to be a lot more of this I didn't expect it to be this quick. Council giving up on protection.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/360583533/council-cuts-funding-long-sta…
'results that point toward an economic recovery later in the year.'
No, Mr Chaston, they are not.
Deferred maintenance could easily account for both. And then some.
I don’t know how a link can causatively be drawn between a slight uptick in January and an economic recovery later in the year.
Good article, don't be put off by the Herald, it's actually a Telegraph article originally.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/russia-ukraine-war-how-ukraines-war-en…
That war is a wicked problem. There’s no good solutions, only less bad ones. And I am not convinced that Trump’s is worse than Biden’s.
Well we haven't actually seen Trump's one yet. If it is as described here it it worse.
Why is it worse? There’s pros and cons to it. Pros include potentially saving tens, or even hundreds of thousands of lives over the next 1-2 years.
no its not, Trump has cut a deal in Putins favour...
Putin damn well knows it
Putin is now in his pocket,
sooner or later trump is going to call that favour
ask yourself .... is that a good place to be?
in the next negotiation Putin starts on the back foot, and with Trump that's not a great position to be.
Trump is playing the longer game here
Putin has given his word he will hold the line
and Trump has given his implied word, what will happen if he does not.
"Putin is now in his pocket"
I think you may have that the wrong way around.
Time will tell, USA does not have a border with the friendly China, though that does enable Russia to build oil pipelines.....
not sure this helps Riverhead property....
@IT GUY, If you don't mind, I'm curious on your Investor Calculator, what’s the max buy price at 7.5% (recent peak), 10% (if the prophecy holds true), and 18.5% (peak boomer rates)?
I will run it for you one day, but I do not see the point, there are no investment buyers here at 5%.....
I do not believe we will get to those rates, the RBNZ would step in with FFL type save our ass programs, by then we would be swapping food with singapore for fossil fuels etc
At that point there will be no buyers as no one could afford the payments?
The converse I guess is that we would be paying people silly wage increases on a global scale to meet payments ie 1970s....
suggest you buy some gold here just in case, gold in the 1970s was what ? and then they delinked it to USD,,,,
https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1891331777462960400
I remember reading an article in the NZ Herald around 2017 about an Auckland property investor who owned about 30-35 properties. He mentioned that rental yields stopped making sense after 2015.
Wish I could find the article again.
https://homes.co.nz/address/auckland/devonport/129-victoria-road/B9yRk
This one had a recent asking price of $1.5M on Trademe. Homes has it estimated as $2.2M. Valued at $2.8M at the peak.
It sold recently and the agent has been quick to update the Homes site to say SOLD but hasn't entered the sale price. I predict one of two things will happen
1- the sale price will not be updated if it sold for anywhere near $1.5M
2 - If someone paid 600K more than the asking price (consistent with Homes valuation) it will be updated
**** $1.5M did seem low ***** so maybe the Trademe asking price was wrong. Let's see.
If under CV, Sold: $TBC
not a villa no street appeal, no developers keen. Devonport has the most shit rental yields ever invented.
who pays ask?
I assume it’s Special Character so no redevelopment potential
it could catch on fire... remember that villa on summer street they jacked up, but then it "fell over"
or the big one on summer street that was wooden but was an earthquake risk. (owned by tongan king?)
Someone took a few planners out game fishing...
HM there is no original sin.
I have monitored a few sales where I live. The sales price always seems to take quite a while to update, even when the sales prices have been ok
I do wonder why sale prices take so long to update on the public sites, when agents have that information straight away. The cynical in me thinks that they don’t want the public to see recent sale prices to make it more difficult to know what similar properties are currently selling for.
I'm in the business - "SOLD" doesn't actually mean anything, what matters is "Settlement", which usually happens 2 to 4 weeks after the handshake happens. If the property was agreed on and the settlement happened the very next day, the official records would show the sale price.
Most agents will text you the price if unconditional, and auctions are public, in fact this very site has a log of same day sale prices from auctions.
So yeah, it's not a big conspiracy or anything, it's just nobody can be bothered changing how the reporting works.
Thanks for that. I just went and checked my brother's purchase (which disappeared completely on sale) and it is now proudly listing the sale price - a month after settlement.
Interestingly, the purchase price is 80k less than the now listed "value" on homes, but I know for a fact the original "value" pre-purchase was only 25k more than they paid.
https://homesconz.zohodesk.com/portal/en/kb/articles/what-is-a-non-stan…
Explained down at the bottom, house has to settle, lawyers have to forward paperwork to council, council has to feed the data back to the public sites. Except when the agents wants to make themselves look good with a high value sale, they can ask the vendor to let them disclose it early.
It's because of the delay between the house selling and settlement day when it's official price is posted.
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