Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ASB cut rates slightly today, giving them some market-leading positions. More here. All rates are here.
BUSINESS LENDING RATE CUTS
ANZ said it is reducing its business lending base rates by -25 bps as follows: Business Bank Indicator Rate to 12.1%, Agri Current Account rate to 10.3%, and the Business Overdraft to 14.1%
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
ASB cut TD rates today, and by much more than the home loan rate cuts. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
NEW CUSTOMERS GET THE BENEFITS, NOT EXISTING ONES
New mortgage takers are benefiting from the recent rate falls - existing customers not so much. The latest monthly RBNZ figures show sharp drops in what customers were paying on new mortgage rates in the second half of last year - but the bank yields on existing mortgages are falling only very slightly.
IMMIGRANT WORK VISA SURGE
A total of 196,137 people were in NZ on work visas at the end of January, plus another 66,147 on student visas. Work visas have surged to near record numbers for the time of year.
AN UNEXPECTED JANUARY SPURT
The ANZ truckometer review found that while consumer traffic flows aren't growing, there was a notable rise for commercial traffic flows in January. Their Light Traffic Index continued to bounce around a flat trend, while the more volatile Heavy Traffic Index jumped +4.0% in January after a modest rise in December. The heavy traffic is now up +4.1% from a year ago, while light traffic is up just +0.2% on the same basis.
HOLDING ITS SHARE, BOOSTING ITS PROFIT
ASB said its interim profit rose as it boosted its net interest margin. It claimed it is holding on to its usual market shares. This profit increase came despite big bump up in staff numbers as the scam war continues. It also claimed to be #1 among the main banks for net promotor score.
MOVING BACK UP, BUT SLOWLY
Kiwibank said the data it has by tracking activity on the debit and credit cards their have issued its customers shows a summer of cautious indulgence for Kiwi. Spending over the summer was +2.3% greater than the 2024 monthly average. But the typical spending spike was far more muted than previous years. A shift in spending habits continues. Food and hospitality spend was strong over the summer, while retail spend declined. Kiwi prefer experiences over physical products, they say. The outlook for spending in 2025 is slowly improving. The change in interest rates and expected rise in house prices should improve the financial position of the household sector, they say.
ELLIOTT EASING HIS WAY OUT
ANZ said today that Shayne Elliott, the ANZ Group CEO, has stepped down as a non-executive director on the ANZ NZ board. He is being replaced by Carolyn Steele as an independent director. Her pre-directorships background was as a senior portfolio manager at the NZ Super Fund.
"CONTINUED STRENGTH OF OUR UNIQUE BUSINESS MODEL" - REALLY?
Dunedin-based MTF (Motor Trade Finance) is talking up its September year end result and performance, claiming "Exceeding Milestones: A Testament to Strength and Strategy". It reported net profit after tax of $5.2 mln for the year on new loans of $821.5 mln, and a total balance sheet of over $1.2 bln. The profit reported is -55% lower than the prior year. The new loans were -2.9% lower, while their total assets rose +12.0%.
REGIONAL DROUGHT
Big falls in the delivery of ready mixed concrete in Waikato, the Bay of Plenty (together -11.8%), and in Wellington (-12.8%) have driven the national levels of poured concrete lower by -6.2% from a year ago. For Auckland, the dip was just -1.5%, and for Christchurch it was -4.3%. Notably, the amount delivered in Auckland in Q4-2024 was actually its second higher of any quarter over the past two years.
TAKING ACTION BY ORDERING A REVIEW
The Government is 'taking action' on issues it sees with ACC, by having a Review. In fact it is having two of them. And that is on top of a new, but separate review of our competition laws.
NZX UPDATE
The NZX50 is down -0.1% in 3pm trade, unchanged from this time last week, and up +0.5% from a month ago. There are 36 gainers today, led by Synlait's +4.7%, Napier Port +2.6%, Kathmandu +2.5% and Port of Tauranga +1.4%. But there are 41 decliners, led by Rakon -3.2%, Spark -2.0%, Mercury -1.9% and Vista -1.8%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is little-changed today.
ANZ GETS ITS FUNDS, EVEN IF SLIGHTLY EXPENSIVE
ANZ said it raised $750 mln in its 5 year unsecured unsubordinated fixed rate bond offer, at a rate of 4.63%, which involved a margin of +95 bps over swap. (ANZ offer retail investors 4.30% for a 5 year TD.) It seems unlikely these funds would be used for home loans.
AN UNWELCOME SLIDE
The just released 2024 Corruption Perceptions Index by Transparency International has New Zealand's global ranking slipping further, now to fourth, with Singapore moving into third place. This also bumps New Zealand off the top rank in the Asia-Pacific region. The Index is published annually and is the leading global indicator of public sector corruption. While still in the top 10 worldwide, New Zealand has surrendered its position as a world leader in integrity and transparency. For many years New Zealand scored ‘least corrupt’ alongside Denmark, now it is now 7 points behind its previous peer.
AUSSIE HOUSING INVESTORS PULL BACK
In Australia, December home loan data revealed modest changes. The total number of new loan commitments for dwellings fell -0.4% in the December quarter while the value rose +1.4%. Owner occupier activity was positive, but investors pulled back. The number of new investor loan commitments for dwellings fell -4.5% in the quarter while the value fell -2.9%.
SWAP RATES STILL FINDING TODAY'S LEVEL
Wholesale swap rates are hard to tell where they might end up, so keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bps on Tuesday at 3.86%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +7 bps at 4.50%. The China 10 year bond rate has held at 1.63%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 4.68% while today's RBNZ fix was at 4.63% and unchanged. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.54% and up +5 bps from this time yesterday. Their 2yr is up +1 bp at 4.29%, so that positive curve is steeper at +25 bps.
EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 is down -0.1% in late Wednesday trade. The ASX200 is up +0.2% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +0.3% in early Wednesday trade. Hong Kong is up +1.5%, but Shanghai is only up +0.1% its open. Singapore has opened up +0.2%. Wall Street closed its Tuesday trade with the S&P500 virtually unchanged.
OIL FIRMS AGAIN
The oil price is up +50 USc from this time yesterday, now just on US$73/bbl in the US, and at over US$76.50/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE UNCHANGED AGAIN
The carbon price is still within its tight range, today still at NZ$63/NZU. The next release of units at the official auction is on March 19, 2025. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD DOWN
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$42 from this time yesterday, now at US$2894/oz in a retracing.
NZD FIRMS AGAINST THE USD
The Kiwi dollar has risen +20 bps from this time yesterday, now at 56.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 89.9 AUc. Against the euro we are also little-changed at 54.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 67.2 and up +10 bps.
BITCOIN SOFT
The bitcoin price is down -2.0% from this time yesterday, now at US$96,141. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.9%.
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93 Comments
" ... but the bank yields on existing mortgages are falling only very slightly."
The answer to that is for customers to refuse the roll-over deals their current lender offers them. If they do that the lenders will generally offer them a better deal. The lenders know full well that shifting a mortgage is pretty easy nowadays, but the rely on a good number of their customers being too lazy or stupid to change.
The just released 2024 Corruption Perceptions Index by Transparency International has New Zealand's global ranking slipping further, now to fourth, with Singapore moving into third place.
This Index has very little meaning except to position some kind of moral high ground that doesn't really exist. The research design is framed from a Western POV of what actually constitutes corruption and completely ignores 'soft corruption' like the Game of Mates, which we know is part and parcel of the way things operate in Aotearoa and Aussie.
The timing of the Index release is interesting given what's happening in the US and the ruling elite scurrying like rats and desperate to cover their tracks.
Measuring a large percentage of stuff is useful even if it doesn't measure everything adequately. However, what suggests they don't factor in nepotism into the index?
Novel that two National-ACT governments in a row have pushed NZ down the Corruption Perceptions Index.
Cannot have helped having the MP for Marlboro leading the charge.
Measuring a large percentage of stuff is useful even if it doesn't measure everything adequately. However, what suggests they don't factor in nepotism into the index?
What insight does it reveal and value does it offer me? As I said, beyond 'pretending' Aotearoa is on some higher moral ground than Thailand or Ukraine, it's meaningless. In fact, I'd go as far to say that the Global South nations look at it as hypocrisy.
As someone who has spent years living in Southeast Asia, I find that a little absurd. Corruption makes a massive detrimental difference to lives and equating NZ's levels with Southeast Asia is disconnected with reality.
What you personally gain from it may be another matter.
As someone who has spent years living in Southeast Asia, I find that a little absurd. Corruption makes a massive detrimental difference to lives and equating NZ's levels with Southeast Asia is disconnected with reality
I presented one time with TI and the Australian Federal Police on this topic in Ha Noi to the Australian and British Chambers of Commerce. Yes, corruption does make a difference to people's lives directly and indirectly.
Was this business trip not long enough for you to ascertain that corruption in Vietnam is a lot more prolific than in NZ?
2/3 of their population attest to having to bribe a public official, they are a one party state with significantly less transparency and rule of law.
Jesus tapdancing Christ.
I think they are looking at corruption like "do you have to pay a bribe to get out of a traffic stop", rather than the "is your company more likely to get favourable treatment from a government after you financially supported their election campaign".
We don't have much of the former but perhaps quite a bit of the latter.
I think they are looking at corruption like "do you have to pay a bribe to get out of a traffic stop", rather than the "is your company more likely to get favourable treatment from a government after you financially supported their election campaign".
Which is morally more dubious? Don't be surprised if Aotearoans are likely to think the former. That is why these indexes are framed from a Western POV.
The former would certainly be more obviously offensive, but the latter happening in the background is also damaging to society and obviously unfair - ultimately the taxpayer suffers from this kind of corruption as others feather their nests.
I find it hard to choose but I agree there should be at least equal attention paid to our Western corruption - and even the perfectly legal conflicts of interest like a PM holding 9 investment properties and passing rules to enrich property investors. I'm a big fan of blind trusts for those in decision making positions.
I think that's a belief not yet corroborated with any supporting evidence.
My years living in SEA gave me good exposure to all the types of corruption we are discussing here, including the procurement cycle. This stuff is all rampant.
Murray, below, raises one that'd likely be less common: inbound immigrants paying for jobs to get a visa.
This is the sort of comment you make when you've never had assault rifle wielding cops shake you down for bribes overseas.
Highly corrupt nations have more of the "soft corruption" you mention, as well as corruption fairly prolifically though every level of officialdom.
You really need to take a world tour through some of the worlds more dodgiest areas.
Blind patriotism isn't a good thing, then again neither is being incapable of working out most things are on a spectrum rather than just being binary matters.
Our relative lack of corruption should be something we should be thankful of, every single day. Many parts of human existence is pretty damn grim, there's a reason migrants flow more in one direction than another.
Indeed.
This survey is about public perception, which will be influenced by the corruption felt and witnessed by the public.
We don't even deserve what we have, the fact there's quite a few on here dissatisfied with that is amusing. Another "supermodel with pointy elbows" debate.
So Jim Chalmers tells regulators to advise banks to disregard HELP debts in mortgage applications. Banks will be told not to count HECS-HELP & other student loans in debt calculations for home loans.
What does this actually mean though? Why are they so desperate to prop up the Ponzi when many Aussies believe the nation in in crisis on property supply?
This is Chalmers' reckon:
"By unlocking more finance from the banks we'll see more housing projects get off the ground more quickly,"
Seems like an unserious person to me.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-11/banks-to-be-told-to-disregard-st…
If that is the case , it is the end for resi construction, because we are also at the point where people cannot afford to buy that house.
They have decided that the house in Aussie is better value all up, right or wrong you cannot make them buy our house.
It will sort itself out in the normal manor.
Capitalism is proven and no one wants the gubermint to step in as buyer of last resort do we.
there are only 2 with bank says sell...
that said I know someone who had to sell or the bank would have closed. Never was a mortgagee sale although it was. Always better for everyone if its not. So if you suspect it could be bid or offer accordingly.
You make all the money in the buying
2024 4th (out of 180 countries, Oz 10th, Canada 15th, Japan/UK 20th, USA 28th)
2023 3rd
2022 3rd
2021 3rd
2020 1st=
did you call out Labour & Jacinda for losing 1st place & maintaining the largest drop?
This sort of Public Service behaviour under Labours leadership doesn't help "perceptions of corruption"
https://nopunchespulled.com/2024/07/24/government-agency-corruption/
Don't let this distract you from the the fact that in 1966, Al Bundy scored four touchdowns in a single game while playing for the Polk High School Panthers in the 1966 city championship game versus Andrew Johnson High School, including the game-winning touchdown in the final seconds against his old nemesis, "Spare Tire" Dixon.
Yep, look out for this one from Shane Jones and we'll know it's the final straw.
"Trump signs order shifting US back toward plastic straws"
I would vote for any party that brought back plastic straws. I hate paper ones with a passion. And worse, every time I suck on a soggy paper straw that ruins my drink I am reminded of "that woman" who banned them in the first place. Then my drink tastes even worse.
I think it was Einstein that said "what's popular is not necessarily true, and what's true is not always popular".
There's some sentiments here that are self evident. The place shouldn't be too over crowded. Houses should be cheap (and food, and everything). People should earn money through active endeavour. We should have awesome infrastructure, schools, medical, etc. and endless list of nice to haves.
But the "how", will require a lot more than fairy kisses and unicorn dreams.
"A land deal as part of a controversial waste-to-energy plant proposal in South Canterbury has fallen over."
Good to see this project fall off the fast track list. Being a local, I wasn't looking forward to dioxins being liberally spread through the local air column and wafting my way. Perhaps we could take a look at the totally unnecesary production of waste in the first place? Have wait for a change of government though. Obviously.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/country/541545/firm-behind-controversial-pla…
The shares of Korea's four major entertainment companies — SM, YG, JYP Entertainment and HYBE — have surged to new 52-week highs, as investors view the K-pop industry as a safe haven amid U.S. President Donald Trump's escalating tariff dispute.
Very much doubt your IFA picked this up.
https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/biz/2025/02/175_392014.html
They are the last generation
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/12/china-marriage-statistics…
Not just some, there are a lot of cool companies using AI to process photos, one company has 2500 photos over time for every point on earth, they say they can use AI to work out how much development has occurred, how it was done etc and how many people where involved. I do not think China has 1.3 billion and if it does with a current birth rate of 6.3 million its prooper f^%^&%d
Think about it, US is estimated to have increased by about 30 million illegals plus births in last 3 years. even if only same as China... us only has fraction of population.
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