Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes today. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank and BNZ both tweaked TD rates, surprisingly one was up. More here. AMP also trimmed its rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
BIG BOND ISSUE I
The Treasury said it expects to issue at least $3 bln for an existing five year nominal bond, or more, possibly up to $6 bln. It is expected to be priced 10 to 13 bps over the 15 May 2034 nominal bond. The last time the May 2034 bond was tendered was in December 2024 and it delivered a weighted average yield of 4.36%. This big issue will mean the regular $500 mln tender later this week will be cancelled.
BIG BOND ISSUE II
A book build is underway for a five year ANZ unsecured unsubordinated fixed rate bond. They are seeking a minimum of $200 mln, but with the option to take unlimited oversubscriptions. Given past fundraising like this, something north of $1 bln is possible. Their margin indication is 93 to 98 bps over swap. With swap rates currently about 3.67% that is going to make this money too expensive to fund any cheap mortgages.
HEAT OF GROCERY SUPPLIER COST PRESSURE EASES
The pace of supplier cost increases to Foodstuffs supermarkets slowed slightly in January, with the Infometrics-Foodstuffs New Zealand Grocery Supplier Cost Index (GSCI) showing an average +2.1% increase in what suppliers charged in January 2025, compared to a year earlier. It also rose +2.1% in December. In January 2024 the increase was +4.3%. Separately, our monitoring of a 'healthy' shopping list' reveals prices for those items are actually -2.8% lower than this time last year.
REASON VANISHES
In Australia, industry leaders are calling for taxpayer support of their steel and aluminium industries in response to the US imposing 25% tariffs on any steel imports. It will probably also hit NZ steel and aluminium imports to the US - even though New Zealand has no tariffs on US products like these. It is clear, Trump has no idea what 'countervailing tariffs' actually means.
SHORT, BUT NOT FLOATING
December data out today shows that home loan borrowers plunged back into fixed term rates - but very short ones. The latest data shows that the very brief flirtation with floating rate mortgages was replaced by a surge of interest in six month fixed rates.
NZX UPDATE
The NZX50 is down -0.4% in 3pm trade. There are 31 gainers today and 45 decliners on the wider Main Board. The gainers are led by Sanford, Synlait, Investors Fletcher & spark. The decliners are led by Gentrack, Heartland Genesis & Mainfreight. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -1.0% so far today.
RISING RETURNS
We are seeing some good seasonal rises for redmeat animal prices recently, except for deer. Our charts for bull, steer, and lamb show how each in moving, and in the various regions. You can find the scheduled offers by processor in our extensive database.
SWAP RATES RISE
Wholesale swap rates may be higher today, so keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. Swap pressures are accentuated today by the big bond issues, especially at the long end. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged on Friday at 3.88%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +8 bps at 4.43%. The China 10 year bond rate has firmed +2 bps to 1.63%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +11 bps at 4.66% while today's RBNZ fix was 4.62% and up +8 bps. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.48% and down -1 bps from this morning. Their 2yr is holding at 4.29%, so that positive curve is less steep at +19 bps.
EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 is down -0.4% in late Monday trade. The ASX200 is down -0.3% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +0.1% in early Monday trade. Hong Kong is up +1.4%, but Shanghai is only up +0.3% at its open. Singapore has opened up +0.7%. The after-hours futures trade for the S&P500 suggests that Wall Street will open tomorrow up +0.6%.
OIL FIRMS
The oil price is up +US$1 from this morning, now just over US$71.50/bbl in the US, and at US$75/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE STAYS IN RANGE
The carbon price is still within its tight range, today still at NZ$63/NZU. The next release of units at the official auction is on March 19, 2025. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD HOLDS
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$8 from this morning, now at US$2868/oz.
NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar has dipped -20 bps from this morning, now at 56.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 90.2 AUc. But against the euro we are unchanged at 54.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 67.2 and also little-changed.
BITCOIN LOWER
The bitcoin price is lower (-1.4%) from this morning, now at US$95,605. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.3%.
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113 Comments
The gold revaluation narrative really heating up now. Some hedge fund contemporaries of Scott Bessent are speculating about a revaluation of America’s gold stocks according to the mighty Gillian Tett.
This week such chatter intensified after Bessent both pledged to “monetise the asset side of the US balance sheet” — in other words, to focus on assets as much as liabilities — while also promising to lower 10-year Treasury yields. “Re-marking . . . to current market value would mechanically deleverage the US balance sheet,” says David Teeters, of IESE business school, who notes that if gold prices keep rising, this potential blessing swells. Or as Larry McDonald, a libertarian analyst, notes: “It is time to get creative around . . . Uncle Sam’s balance sheet.
Thus it is no surprise that gold is outperforming bitcoin right now; nor that traders are flying gold bars from London vaults to New York. Welcome to a financial Alice-in-Wonderland world where buying bullion seems almost sane.
https://www.ft.com/content/f6459ed1-8a65-4d89-8bd8-40e8546912f0
shite thats a buy signal
$US3,000 may be the level that gets people jumping on the band wagon. A revaluation sounds great but it could come with a windfall tax or similar that reduces the return when the metal is sold. The politicians are unlikely to let those gains go to waste.
Great stuff from Maccy B illustrating why Aussie has zero labour productivity growth since 2016, worse than Aotearoa and other deadbeats like the EU. Some great stuff here showing that Aussie's manuf share of employment is the worst in the OECD - even Aotearoa performs better. Of course it's the Central and Eastern European nations kicking butt in this metric.
All the problems identified here dragging Aussie into the mud are similar to what we face here in Aotearoa - low investment, structural decline in capital, productivity trap.
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2025/02/why-the-australian-economy-is-…
You mean New Zealand ?
It appears so.
But it is clear from the Iwi Chairs Forum that Aotearoa and New Zealand are not the same.
Aotearoa and New Zealand are interchangeable. Time to move on from walk shorts, long socks and sandals my friend.
As an Aotearoaer I disagree.
Or would it be Aotearoan?
Bit of a mouthful. ‘Kiwi’ is fine.
I've always been confused about the term kiwi, does it refer to the genetically modified Chinese gooseberry or the defenseless native bird who is in danger of being unintentionally eradicated by pests from abroad?
How about New Zealand ? How is New Zealand doing J.C. ?
There is no depression in Aotearoa.....
Aotearoa is a great place..
The land of the Long White Cloud...
no clouds we vape now...
medical....
Dr: What ailment do you need a prescription for?
Patient: uhh, life's too hard?
Dr: Good enough, here's 10 grams of "Gorilla Panic"
I've always wondered who stole whenua from the word Aotearoa. And the word white. Maybe it's been translated wrong?
Aotea - White cloud
Roa - Long
Aotearoa New Zealand is not so kapai / good
Still struggling with easily confused citizens, it seems.
Imagine being so out of it you don't know what country you live in.
Well, there's no war, the place isn't on fire and our planes aren't colliding *touches wood*. Our unemployment is better than elsewhere.
Oh and the place is pretty beautiful and peaceful if you can avoid civilisation.
Pretty country. But lots of problems too.
apocalyptic fires? Maybe not, but we get our fair share of nasty quakes don’t we
I thought our unemployment was quite high by international, OECD standards
kiwi exceptionalism is a real bore. Having said that, not a bad country to live in overall
But lots of problems too
Once you work out perfection is a concept born from human delusion, it gets easier.
Some of the perspectives on here would turn down a night with a supermodel, lest she have pointy elbows.
As a married man I am obligated to turn down a night with a supermodel. Luckily for me, my wife is a gorgeous ex-model with [at least, according to my fashion designer sister] perfect proportions :)
On your topic though, "perfection is the enemy of done", and thus contentment.
That also.
Lotta people on here on an endless doom loop of what's wrong. You'll miss a lot doing that.
"home loan borrowers plunged back into fixed term rates - but very short ones"
This is the right call in the current uncertain times. You want to be able to react quickly when circumstances change, the discount a one or two year term offers is not worthwhile the risk, and floating's premium cost is too high. 6 months is the best term.
You need some big OCR cuts for 2 x six month to work out better than the 12 month. But yeah I guess you are right with the flexibility if you suddenly decide to fix long.
Tony A thinks this is the wrong move. He is suggesting to go longer, now
Not sure I agree, but he’s the ‘expert’
He seems quite despondent these days - i.e. maybe residential housing is not the way to riches any more……
At 4.99% it would be tempting. But I doubt it would work out better.
Interesting to see parts of Auckland where a new townhouse on a 200m² section is asking a million, while older but decent houses on 800m² are asking around the same price. How do you even sell a new townhouse in this market?
Unfortunately there is not much under $800K, but the number of $1M listings keeps growing. At some point, will the dam break as more properties are listed, or will $1M+ homeowners just keep trading among themselves?
Things seem to have flipped - you used to pay for the land, now you pay for the building.
Nothing's changed. Location is everything. And big bits of land in a premo location are expensive. And they are becoming scarcer and scarcer !!!
I know where one is, I sold it to the sucker at $4,000 a sq m.
I'd feel really dreadful about that.
If he had doubled his money, he would not have come back and offered me a top up...
Zach, trading is a brutal game, its like boxing. They where lining up, there where underbidders....
If he puts it up for $1 reserve I will be there to support him, at the right price.
I could be his saviour yet
Things seem to have flipped - you used to pay for the land, now you pay for the building.
Well a new meh-box is $3 grand a square, and something half decent is double, and something "snazzy" is closer to 10 (or more if the sites not level). The land cost relative to the total price as a ratio is going to shift in certain instances.
There is no need to bring me into it
The REINZ report (out this week), sets out the percentage of properties selling by price bands, and compares them to a year ago.
Interesting to see parts of Auckland where a new townhouse on a 200m² section is asking a million
Good luck getting it. When was the last time you saw busloads of Chinese will suitcases full of moolah willing to pay a king's ransom for a townhouse in Aotearoa?
China is in deflation with two of the biggest falls in real estate just outside in Beijing down around 80% since their peak in 2019.
Yes the disparity in the reported falls, and the current transaction levels is massive, some 2nd tier cities showing 80% falls and people not buying as they cannot afford the body corporate fees for heating etc...
Its quite a thing to watch
I would suggest that your townhouse on 200 m2 and your old house on 800 m2 at the same price, are not in the same location, or if they are, they are zoned differently.
Not necessarily. A lot of the old housing stock is barely fit for purpose these days, and it’s very expensive to bring it up to scratch. The old 2 bedder with 1 bath and tiny kitchen on 800m2 possibly is worth around the same as a new 4 bedder townhouse with double glazing and ensuite and nice kitchen in some areas.
In many cases the storm water etc etc etc cannot support your density, do not pass go, do not collect $200k...
It's interesting to see that these watercare issues are happening in the same areas where developers are sitting onto unsold new builds and small sections under 500m².
the storm water etc etc etc cannot support your density
The infrastructure issues are/will be worse in the sprawl areas. Unless you are saying Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anything ...
Warkworth has a funny market, townhouses asking $1.1M right next to older homes on 800m² asking the same price.
It's similar in my area of Christchurch. I guess the old houses (like mine) are valued for the land, minus the cost of getting rid of the old property to get it ready for a block of flats.
Does seem strange though, seeing two bed flats selling a couple of doors down for roughly what I think my 4 bed on 800m is worth. Seems like lots of them are ending us as rentals or air bnbs.
In a few years time these townhouses will be really cheap. Because there will not be any coordinated maintenance done to their facades etc. The worst one will set the price.
Two story townhouse - will rot from the top as maintenance is too hard and costly.
Bulldozer hire is next business opportunity!
There are a lot of unsold spec builds on the Templeton Warkworth Ridge.
Yep, next year’s carnage
"Interesting to see parts of Auckland where a new townhouse on a 200m² section is asking a million, while older but decent houses on 800m² are asking around the same price."
In every big city I've lived and worked in, the three rules are the same ... Location. Location. Location.
As someone who has traded a bit of property its all about price, price, price
relative to where it is.
"relative to where it is."
So ... Location? ;-)
Having the ability to correctly access if its over or undervalued tends to determine your success. Not its exact location, you can make money in Herne Bay or Tokoroa as long as you buy well. In fact Herne Bay has been sucking a Kumara lately.
The further up the property ladder you go, the more lonely it is, especially if you have to exit quickly.
Very true.
Every year that house prices stagnate makes residential property look like a worse investment. Even people that bought 10 years ago probably would have been better off in shares.
Even people that bought 10 years ago probably would have been better off in shares.
Ryman? You would have lost 50% of your capital.
[chuckles] You know how stop-losses work, right?
(I expect you do, J.C. Others may not.)
yes, the first one is the cheapest !
they get more expensive after that...
maybe its time to s hort the big 4
You know how stop-losses work, right?
If you got in a time machine back to the 2015 water coolers and BBQs, don't be surprised to see bullish sentiment towards Ryman. Granny Herald probably had kind words about Ryman as well.
You can't go wrong with bricks and mortar so they say.
I do remember reading Ryman reports back then (and further) - Summerset as well. It was obvious from their reported inflating capital they were benefitting from land prices and not increased services ( I think 2014 was either +128M or to 128M, [guesstimate from memory]).
It was all going to end in tears when the bubble burst. I expect to see these operators divest in a fire sale under unpalatable debt. But I might be wrong.
Yup. All true.
And why the experienced would set tighter stop-losses while be completely okay with them being bounced out of ownership should the stops be triggered (booking sizeable profits in the process).
Yes but that mentality lies in the history. Property by default has long become the safe haven investment. For example the finance minister Dr Cullen one day was bemoaning the fact that NZrs invested in property rather than the share market but only a few days later his protege Cunliffe gleefully announced the measure that would gut the Telecom share price, a blue chip for every mum and dad investor, thus taking $ millions out of unsuspecting pockets.
If you’re diversified it hardly matters.
Or if you want a punt you could make 50% or more a year in bitcoin or Nvidia etc.
Clearly property can be a bad investment. Just consider NZ's zombie towns. Your suburb may be next. That is where property becomes interesting - your property may go up in price as neighbours go down; yours may or may not become a leaky home or flood risk. Unlike most investments property is 'do I like it?' followed by 'will anyone else like it in the future?'
Haha I tried suggesting this on this site 10 years ago (based upon 100+ years of historical research by Robert Shiller who has a Nobel prize for his work in asset pricing and long term returns of asset classes) and got told I was a conspiracy theorist/DGM as housing is always the best investment - and it is quite possible you were one of those who were disagreeing with me at the time Jimbo
In saying that, global sharemarkets look hugely overpriced so who knows what May transpire in the near future.
I may have disagreed, can’t remember. Although I said many times that it can’t outpace wage growth forever.
REASON VANISHES
I figured that would be next. Following close on the heals of discussion with the Japanese PM about their proposed (as yet unsigned) investment in US Steel.
Japan would be better to join forces with the rest-of-the-world on this affront to FTAs - as again, if the RoW sets out to further Trump's isolationist agenda, the price for US Steel will be a fire sale before his term ends.
Most of the world is reason-free these days, to various degrees
Trump in his early career is known to have resented Japan’s economic re-emergence as a financial powerhouse. For instance buying the Rockefeller Centre in Manhattan, or say Firestone tyres etc. Something like only could happen because the USA has been paying for their defence. The same theme over Europe, beneficiaries of the Marshall Plan. In other words the USA won the war, paid to put you guys on your feet again and now all you want to do is keep on taking and come over here and exploit our market. Just saying what some think he’s been thinking.
The mighty Alan Kohler on the Aussie Ponzi and why it cannot / doesn't fall and the trade-offs.
Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank predicts that real household disposable income in 2025 will increase by 2.4 per cent.
These are only predictions, so anything could happen, but if they come true it will be another year of deteriorating affordability: house prices will rise at twice the rate of disposable income, something that that has been going on for 25 years and created what we all see now as a crisis.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-10/housing-crisis-hypocrisy-lip-ser…
‘Mighty’ Alan Kohler?
Very good journo IMO. Not a puppet for the govt, banks, or housing industry.
Oh he’s ok, bit of bias to the ponzi I would say
Maccy B don’t always welcome his thoughts
You know it's a ponzi yet you still bought a house. Crazy.
Another poll showing NACT behind the opposition. How long before the knives start getting sharpened? Almost half way through their term already
They need some serious positive initiatives. Rather than just cutting and cancelling things.
The NACTF's sole strategy appears to be waiting for the RBNZ to drop the OCR where it should be. Talk about hopeless government ...
I reckon it will work out nicely for them though. Recession will be over this year and unemployment rate will well down by the election. Unless Trump ruins it for them somehow.
Agreed, and the other big issue is they've shown willingness to use their "mandate" to enact policy that benefits property investors, rich foreigners wanting to park their funny money, and Ford Ranger Raptor drivers, but total dithering on policy that benefits the average working pleb or middle-of-the-road-Kiwi.
Take an issue like crime and the sentencing of criminals. I think it's fair to say that most people have a perception that judges are far too soft on violent and/or recidivist criminals.
The fact you can follow some poor old man home and kill him and get home detention (I refer to that case in Chch recently) and knowing some judge got paid mega bucks to come to this brain damaged conclusion is abhorrent to all but those 'People Against Prisons' nutters.
So apart from fluffing about with some watered-down 3 Strikes 2.0 bill, what has NACT done here? Nothing, as far as I can tell. They could easily if wished pass legislation mandating no more than a 20% sentence discount on violent crime, and if we have to build more prisons to accommodate then 'hey presto' we've got some public works happening!
Same with Treaty issues, same with education etc.
In the same way it was fair to criticise Labour for having the parliamentary ability to implement meaningful tax reform and then do nothing about it, it's fair to criticise NACT for having the parliamentary ability to implement policy and then do nothing about it unless it immediately benefits property developers/investors and the massively wealthy.
Add to this the fact that I suspect most middle voters expected NACT to cut costs in order to redistribute the money elsewhere more beneficially, as opposed to just cutting costs and then cutting costs again when that doesn't work and then having no alternative, and it's not hard to see why they are struggling.
Add to this again a leader as fundamentally unlikeable and as bland as Luxon and you have a recipe for disaster (although my personal view at this stage is they will get a 2nd term as Greens & TPM will get too cocky come election time and start demanding all sorts of truly deranged policy e.g. votes for fetuses and an unrealised wealth tax on anybody with enough cash to buy from the McDonalds value menu without government support - then in the voting booth just enough people will think that the status quo is preferable)
They have made their whole platform the economy and growth, but seem unable to deliver it. Patience will wear out
Presently they have two advantages. Firstly they are the incumbents, secondly the prospect of the opposition as a coalition remains unpalatable . A government though, that finds itself having to rely on those sort of features is not a government that is making progress and provides neither confidence nor security to the electorate at large. Their situation is not being assisted by petty antics by Seymour of ACT, reminiscent of unnecessarily strange utterances prior to the last election. Being deputy prime minister elect should be enough of headline without resorting to triviality to get one.
Firstly they are the incumbents
Incumbency doesn't seem to be much of an advantage these days.
I tend to think Hippy is dead man walking and Luxy is walking man dying ....
It was a lovely day here today. Warm, the sun was shining. The birds were having a good feed on our fruit trees. Lots of dog walkers were out and about...
I expected TV1s Maiki to behave like a crushing fangirl presenting tonights poll results...& she didn't disappoint
What I didn't expect was New Venture Capitals Alex Roy interviewed & praising Nationals latest attempt to attract foreign investors - apparently they didn't know about his 8 Cannonball run records !
@MoralHazard
The right block on 48% and left block on 47%. You need to do the maths rather than rely on One News headlines. Yes, I know that it would translate to 60 seats to 61 seats due to the vagaries of MMP, but either way, it's pretty much even, as other recent polls have shown.
Nice snapshot of the upper echelons of the Aussie Ponzi.
Newport gaff bought in April 2022 for $7.75m - Listed for $7.4m & reduced to $6.75m - 94 days on the market
So the vendor has potential monetary loss of $1m.
But the good news is that the public sector and agents still get stamp duty & fees of $471k.
https://www.spachus.com.au/property-details?id=467292&state=NSW
Wait till those Auckland CVs come out, they will be down 17-19%
There will be no more PLEASE IGNORE CV
At this ALL of AUCKLAND pull there spending horns in as people start to think what retirement looks like, especially boomers with main equity in shitbox.
I wonder when the CV will come out! With so little sale activity, who knows what places are worth.
WGTN was pretty accurate.... AKL is nothing special
-17% is about what I expected after checking out other areas that have already released theirs.
Going to be about -150k for most homes.
It doesn't apply to my place....
Prices in Riverhead will never drop due to the limited land supply, similar to Mt maunganui ;)
Doesn't really matter if the CV goes up or down, a house will still sell for around what it is worth. CVs are simply for determining rates.
Sentiment will change. This might be the first time in Auckland’s history that valuations have dropped. Expect people to tighten their purse strings, then make a run for the exit.
"At this ALL of AUCKLAND pull there spending horns in as people start to think what retirement looks like, especially boomers with main equity in shitbox."
Is the bank of mum and dad closing?
Bank of Mum and Dad diversifying in Australia to help out with living expenses ..."The majority of funds given to adult children from parents and grandparents was spent on everyday living expenses like groceries, insurance, petrol, and bills, the survey found. USB equity strategist Richard Schellbach said it marked a shift from the "traditional" role of the Bank of Mum and Dad, focused on helping children secure a deposit for their first home." Hopefully not as prevalent here or it could be RIP or delayed retirement for some.
In Australia, industry leaders are calling for taxpayer support of their steel and aluminium industries in response to the US imposing 25% tariffs on any steel imports. It will probably also hit NZ steel and aluminium imports to the US - even though New Zealand has no tariffs on US products like these. It is clear, Trump has no idea what 'countervailing tariffs' actually means.
Who, no doubt, shall dispatch an obliging dignitary to kneel at the feet of and kiss the ring of American King Trump, returned to his throne through great moral victory, as his court watches on with squeaks of glee. One of many foreign powers to humble themselves before that great king, seeking to attone for their treachery during the Biden era.
Tell him he's dreamin
You are rethinking the subs
"It will probably also hit NZ steel and aluminium imports to the US" A bit old there were tariffs imposed by Trump in his first presidency and not withdrawn by Biden. I have a very long chatgpt response which confirms what I've mentioned
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