A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; consumer sentiment rises, Willis talks deregulation & competition, trade deficit shrinks, no credit card stress signs yet, swaps lower, NZD holds low, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop). This is a bonus holiday edition as there are a few things worth knowing.

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
UnityMoney trimmed a few key TD rates for 6/9/12 months. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here. In addition, this review might be helpful if you are a TD saver.

CONSUMER SENTIMENT IMPROVES
According to the latest ANZ/RoyMorgan consumer confidence survey, more people thing now is a good time to buy a major home appliance.

FMA SUES INVESTNOW
The FMA has filed civil proceedings against InvestNow for alleged AML breaches. The FMA alleges that InvestNow breached the AML/CFT Act for breaches that predominantly occurred from late-2018 to late-2022, by:

• Failing to establish, implement and maintain an adequate AML/CFT program,
• Failing to obtain information on the nature and purpose of the proposed business relationship between customers and InvestNow,
• Failing to conduct enhanced customer due diligence,
• Failing to adequately conduct account monitoring, and
• Failing to terminate business relationships when required.

INSIDER TRADING ADMITTED
Kevin Young, a former accountant with Heartland Bank, has pleaded guilty to insider trading charges brought against him by the Financial Markets Authority. The charges relate to events between July 2020 and February 2021.

GROWING THE ECONOMY WITHOUT SPENDING
Finance Minister Nicola Willis has been talking to Dan Brunskill about claims deregulation and greater competition rules that will support economic growth in the New Year. She also has a warning for the big banks.

BIG IMPROVEMENT
The November trade balance fell sharply to a deficit of -$437 mln as exports rose +9.1% and imports fell -3.9%. Apart from the pandemic, this was the lowest November trade balance since 2014. (Between then, November trade deficits averaged -$1.1 bln, so 2024 is a positive outlier.) Strong kiwifruit exports were a key driver this year.

CHRISTMAS GIFT
Five years after it finally failed, the liquidators of Cryptopia have started returning assets to valid accounts holders 'on-chain'.

LOWER CREDIT CARD ACTIVITY, BUT NO STRESS SIGNALS
In a sign of the times, billings on locally issued credit cards were lower in November, down -4.5% from the same month a year ago. There was little-change in the $4.2 bln of credit card debt outstanding. And perhaps surprisingly, the amount of that debt incurring interest remained near its all-time low, and in fact decreased from the prior month.

CHINA HOLDS KEY RATES
China reviewed its loan prime rates today and kept them unchanged - at record lows.

JAPANESE INFLATION EMBEDS
Japan reported November CPI inflation, and that rose again, now at 2.9%, with the widely-watched core inflation rate at 2.8%.

SWAP RATES LOWER
Wholesale swap rates fell notably  are probably little-changed again at the short end today, but again likely higher at the long end. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged from yesterday at 4.25%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +8 bps from this time yesterday at 4.54%. The China 10 year bond rate has fallen back -3 bps to just on 1.72%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +6 bps at 4.69% while today's RBNZ fix was 4.62% and up +8 bps. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.56% and up another +5 bps from this time yesterday. Their 2yr is now just on 4.31%, so that positive curve has raced out to +25 bps.

EQUITIES IN LIGHT SHIFTS, EXCEPT THE ASX
The NZX50 has fallen -0.1% in late thin trade today. But the ASX200 is down another heavy -1.3% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened its Friday trade up +0.2%. Hong Kong is unchanged and Shanghai is up +0.2%. Singapore is down -0.7% at its open however. The S&P500 fell just -0.1% on Wall Street in its Thursday trade deciding the prior day's retreat was enough.

OIL SOFTISH AGAIN
The oil price is down -50 USc from this time yesterday, now just under US$69/bbl in the US, and now just on US$7250/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE FALLS
The carbon price has slipped today by -$2.50 to NZ$60.50/NZU with more activity than we were expecting. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD SLIGHTLY SOFTER
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$13 from this time yesterday, now at US$2597/oz.

NZD HOLDS LOWER
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday, now at 56.3 USc but holding its sharply lower level. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.4 AUc. And against the euro we are up +10 bps at 54.3 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 66.9 and up +10 bps from this time yesterday.

BITCOIN DROPS FURTHER
The bitcoin price has slipped to US$97,107 and down -2.6% from where we were this time yesterday. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been high at just over +/- 3.7%.

SUMMER HOLIDAY SCHEDULE
This report will be intermittent until mid-January 2025.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».