Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop). This is an abridged report.
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
TSB and ICBC cut some fixed rates. Basecorp cut its floating rate. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Heartland Bank, TSB and ICBC all cut some shorter rates today. All updated rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
FONTERRA TO PAY MORE
Fonterra raised its farmgate milk payout forecast to a mid-point of $10/kgMS ($$9.50-$10.50).
ANZ RAISES FORECAST
ANZ also raised its milk payout forecast to $9.85/kgMS.
WEAK CONTRUCTION SECTOR
Construction activity fell -3.2% in volume terms in the September quarter compared to the June quarter, with falls in both residential and commercial building. September's fall was more pronounced than expected. In value terms, residential building was -11.8% lower than a year ago, and non-residential construction was +1.5% higher on that same basis.
"HOLDING PATTERN" EUPHEMISM FOR "LOWER"
The housing market is in a holding pattern, CoreLogic says, with different factors pushing the market in opposite directions. Median dwelling values have been down for nine consecutive months now, they say.
NZX EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
There is no separate report today. The NZX50 is down -0.2% in late trade.
BNZ EXECUTIVE, AND ROLE, DEPARTING
BNZ says Brigid Gibson, its Executive for Transformation and Delivery, will leave the bank on March 13 next year with Gibson's position not being replaced.
GOVT ACCOUNTS DRAG
The Crown financial statements for the four months ended 31 October 2024 were released today, showing a slightly worse operating/OBEGAL balance track than forecast.
NZGB TENDER RESULT
There was $500 mln raised in three maturities today in a NZGB bond tender. Details here. In each case yields fell from the prior equivalent event. Demand exceeded $1.3 bln
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed again today. Most analysts don't see them falling much from here. Our chart below will record the final positions. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -6 bps from this time yesterday, now at 4.28%. The China 10 year bond rate has fallen again, another -2 bps, to a new all-time low of 1.97%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps at 4.50% while today's RBNZ fix was 4.40% and also down -1 bp. The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.19% and down -3 bps. Their 2yr is now at 4.14%, so that positive curve is still +5 bps.
EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 has fallen -0.2% in late trade today. The ASX200 was up +0.3% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +0.6% at their open. Hong Kong is down -1.2% at its open and Shanghai is down -0.1%. Singapore is starting up +0.9%. Wall Street ended its Wednesday session up +0.6% on the S&P500.
OIL FALLS
The oil price is down -US$1.50 from yesterday, now at US$68.50/bbl in the US, and just under US$72.50/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE SETTLES
The carbon price is minorly softer today at US$63.35/NZU after yesterday's government auction. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD FIRMISH
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$5 from this time yesterday, now at US$2645/oz.
NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from where were this time yesterday, still at 58.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 91.2 AUc. And against the euro we are unchanged at 55.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 68.4 and up +10 bps.
BITCOIN RISES
The bitcoin price has risen to US$99,967 and up +2.7% from where we were this time yesterday. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.4%.
Daily exchange rates
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115 Comments
Game Theory kicks in..ironic the interest.co. team are out off the office.
Anyone still struggling with what's going on - here is a 4 min clip
https://youtu.be/imY4ISqgH-Q?si=7X54MUPinZkLs7UX
I'm enjoying a delicious beer at the beach myself 🍺
Yup I must admit, I didn’t have both Vladimir Putin and Jerome Powell capitulating on Bitcoin on my bingo card this morning. The market clearly didn’t either, given the quick run up from 94-103k (and climbing)
Putin – “Bitcoin. Who can prohibit it? Nobody. No matter what happens to the dollar, these tools will develop, one way or another, as everyone seeks to lower costs and improve reliability.”
Powell – “Bitcoin is like gold, it's just like gold, only it's virtual, it’s digital.” “It's not a competitor for the dollar; it's really a competitor for gold.”
Yup I must admit, I didn’t have both Vladimir Putin and Jerome Powell capitulating on Bitcoin on my bingo card this morning.
Poots does not surprise me. Russia has understood ratty much more than Western suburbanites as it relates to monetary hegemony.
Powell is a surprise.
Lord Orr still seems to be with the normies.
See thats where your wrong. You can not acquire Bitcoin unless you have produced something of value so that you have money to save.
Now that it is at 100k that legitimizes it even more. And with all the good news this year we are only getting started.
Hey we try to educate you guys and willing provide the resources for you to DYOR, but if you are too lazy then thats on you. If your over 30 you will probably be able to live out your life without worrying about it, but under...
See thats where your wrong. You can not acquire Bitcoin unless you have produced something of value so that you have money to save.
incorrect. See here;
”On average, mining 1 BTC consumes around 6,400,000 kilowatt-hours (kWh) of electricity…The electricity needed to mine 1 Bitcoin could power 61 U.S. homes for a whole year.“
It takes energy and that comes from somewhere
Plenty more to come. Housing is inextricably linked to economic sentiments, regardless of all the denial from speculators.
Shamubeel Eaqub recently posted that spending per person in NZ just hit 2016 levels. That's a 30-35% drop in spending on an inflation-adjusted basis.
Even if the economy turns positive today, it could take several months for households to rebuild a secure financial position before they start consuming again.
The real question is what other than interest rate cuts is going on that could improve our macroeconomic situation?
David, You and all your team are doing an immeasurably beneficial thing for NZ Inc. Enjoy your 1/2 day off and know that many of us are with you in spirit. Christmas is a time for reflection. (Just quietly, when it is freezing cold outside the quality may be better. At least, that's my experience.)
Merry Christmas to you, your team, and all helping (and suffering) to make interest.co.nz great.
Hey, J.C.
Just raided every single wallet that may contain any BTC and sold them all. (There weren't many. We did have a lot of wallets!)
All of them, we mined. I've bought none, ever. In the early day we spent everyone single one to ensure the 'market' had plenty. At that time - they were unique. Now?
Tell me, what are they 'worth'? What value do they actually have?
Its not even printed, it gets created then traded as 1's and 0's on SSD drives raided in configurations so they cannot be "lost".
Wait a minute.... BTC sounds just like fiat, except there will only ever be 21 million of them....
Anyone else hear Marc Andreessen on chatting with Joe Rogan, that in the future people will write there own statements into the blockchain about content so others know its the real them, and not some deep fake AI generated or distributed message... interesting use case as well. very pay as you go.
You would defend the NZD to the death? Godspeed, I applaud your sacrifice on my behalf. I will stay home. (And buy Bitcoin)
P.s. the fact you think the security of the Bitcoin network is based around Bitcoiners trusting other Bitcoiners shows how little you understand it.
What do you think the NZDF is purposed for?...or any other military?
You may choose to stay home (on pain of imprisonment, having your assts seized, etc) but if push came to shove the ability to issue currency is what we defend....if we think those seeking to seize our resources will make our position better we may not defend, but history indicates that largely we do defend the existing.
By all means be a bitcoin conscientious objector.
We are defending the country and the interests of the country, not necessarily the currency. Money preceded states, after all.
Conflating the defence of the state with the defence of the currency is incredibly myopic. How many Italians, Spaniards, French, Germans, fought to the death to keep their currency instead of moving to the Euro?
And what about cases like Argentina where citizens actively abandoned the currency due to continual debasement? Why aren't Argentinians fighting to the death for the peso?
Whos going to defend bitcoin?...the few millions scattered around the world? how are they going to organise to defend their 'ownership'?
Nation states exist for a reason.....and nation states almost exclusively reserve the right to issue currency, which represents their resources/assets.
The europeans chose (?, were 'persuaded') to exchange individual currencies for the 'benefit' of a combined currency....which they defend.
Bitcoin doesn't need defending. It is steamrolling all other currencies (based on exchange rates) as is. And this is with active hostility by multiple states including most major world powers. (Been banned in China, Russia, lot of SEC hostility in USA etc).
But those bans don't work and Bitcoin keeps smashing all other currencies by exchange rates. People all over the world are willing to give up more and more of their native currency to acquire Bitcoin (hence the price rises aka changing exchange rates).
Ive bought all sorts of things with it. Beers last Friday for example over the lightning network at my local. Used it to payback friends, transfer money overseas, etc.
Have a look through there to see where you can spend crypto or buy giftcards with crypto.
And the biggest difference, of course, is fiat only goes one direction: down. When was the last time we had deflation, not inflation so your money went further? Since I save in crypto it happens all the time. People on this site park thousands on TDs at 6% pa and think they're financial geniuses, I'm up 5% today.
Ask yourself this sincerely: do you actually know much about crypto? Do you know the difference between proof-of-stake and proof-of-work? Have you ever actually used it? Setup a wallet, transferred with it, used to make purchases etc?
In any case, you'll come round in time. That's the nature of money, it's a collective delusion in any form. And the market is clearly telling us which is the best form of money based on the exchange rate. But ignore that if you wish and regret it later 🤷
What has happened in Argentina?....a substantial proportion of the population have lost faith (the collective delusion) in the Peso, just as other currencies have collapsed (hence hyperinflation)....what did they do though?....they adopted the global reserve currency as a medium of exchange informally.
Have they abandoned the peso or the ability to issue currency?....not yet despite the threats to do so.
The powers that be will maintain the ability to issue currency until they cannot (they may create a new 'peso')....and if that point is reached the economy will collapse and we will witness yet another failed state....and failed states are more conducive to warlords than crypto currencies.
That is the empirical reality.
If your potential visions for the future are the status quo or warlords, then I can see why you have reached the conclusions you have. I think there are many more options than this with the major one being competition between currencies of highly variable form and function (aka the empirical emerging reality today).
Case in point: Milei has legalised Bitcoin and cryptocurrency for contract settlement late last year.
https://www.financemagnates.com/cryptocurrency/president-javier-mileis-…
It is also legal tender in El Salvador. But keep denying the evidence in front of your eyes if you prefer.
"Case in point: Milei has legalised Bitcoin and cryptocurrency for contract settlement late last year."
Note that Argentina facing near hyper inflation and a loss of faith in the issued currency still didnt adopt Bitcoin to supplant the Peso.....empirical reality today.
Alright Frank, whatever. Guy on a finance blog who has never used crypto in anyway, clearly has no understanding of how it works technically, apparently refuses to try and learn, ignores price signals, ignores political signals, has missed out on once in a generation financial gains, but convinced he knows all there is to know about it.
God speed. When we hit 200k remember this convo and that you had every opportunity to buy in.
Adios.
All 'money' is backed by the ability(desire) to defend what it represents....and it represents the resources under control of a grouping.
The only question about crypto is when will the Damascus moment strike?....until then some may well make profit from its trade, just as some made profit from tulips once upon a time.
"People on this site park thousands on TDs at 6% pa and think they're financial geniuses, I'm up 5% today."
We don't think we are geniuses, speaking for myself the feeling is I have already made it in life and can just sit back and get the time to enjoy it. Perhaps you need to stop and think how we ended up with hundreds of thousands to put into a TD in the first place ?
Have you ever stood in a data center of any of the biggest banks in the world?
No gold vault, no printers, no cash management section... no bearer bonds.
Just flashing lights like a great big BTC mining operation....
We already have tokens NZD vs AUD vs USD.
And you have some trust that a bank will convert your tokens (ones and zeros) to notes if asked .
Those NZD in your bank mainframe are just as real as BTC, ie they are not.
'Those NZD in your bank mainframe are just as real as BTC, ie they are not.'
Exactly my point, upthread.
But LMBF's point re a military backing, is valid. When push comes to shove... But the bigger game is the one of bluff between militaries - which is what is going on now, globally. As Redgum sang a long time ago - if you don't fight, you lose... Maybe Putin is a fan.
Silly comment.
I realised that energy was the key, a long time ago. So I built a passive-solar house. Planted - by hand - a forest. Created gardens. Built glasshouses. Assembled the attendant infrastructure - most recently, rabbit-fencing. So now I don't have to trade with anyone, very much. Energy underwrites money. 100%, so if you eliminate the need to purchase it's results....
Oddly enough, I think I have a richer life than most, but then, my values system is different.
At 5 billion hectares of agricultural land (1.5B arable), there's plenty of land to go around. Just like there's plenty of food.
What we have is a distribution problem. Which a reduction in energy will solve, as people will deurbanise. Though I do wonder what that would do for fertility rates...
The next crisis is coming from fiat currency debasement. But many are mistaking the people heading for the lifeboats for the ones who caused the ship to sink. But it was the people in charge who steered the ship into the iceberg that did that. The people heading for the lifeboats are the crypto crowd, while everybody else is in the ballroom dancing
A couple of excellent articles
https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2024/12/04/it-was-always-about-the-o…
"In short, the whole house of cards is founded – in the face of material depletion – upon the incomes of a mass of western householders who are increasingly unable to consume at the rate required to maintain our overburdened debt-based economy… a crisis of under-consumption indeed!"
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2024/12/04/the-world-economy-needs-to-simpli…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdXdaIsfio8
Sorry Bitconners - it was the easy credit which allowed us to get this far ...
We have an under consumption problem which doesnt spell longevity for supply lines
Then you completely misunderstand energy....the suns energy requires conversion to 'work', and that takes resources. Those resources are limited.
And on top of that there is entropy...if we by some miracle manage to continue to create further energy conversion we cannot avoid creating heat.
Bugger
This is a really piss poor response CONF, you talk a lot of sense on many matters but you need to get your head around energy.
I don't think PDK has ever said the sun will run out, his point is that obtaining energy from the sun requires energy input and materials which also require energy.
The previous energy boom was due to solar energy that took millions of years to be produced and stored in fossil fuels. That supply is limited and we are using up increasing amounts of it. There is no replacement. Solar panels do not build themselves, they require energy and materials. Solar panels also do not produce a type of energy that is a portable as a fossil fuels.
Is the biggest clue price?
The price is volatile and subject to both supply and demand (availability to market)...there currently is reduced demand (economies struggling) and a race to extract and sell as much as possible to support those economies, so why wouldnt the price be relatively low?....that tells us nothing about tomorrow, but we do know that the faster we extract it the sooner it depletes and as it depletes it becomes harder to extract.
Rather than a price signal I would be looking for availability....one day we wont be able to access it at any price, either because its not available or the quantity available is kept in house.
Yes you would if governments/banks were creating money and then subsidising fossil fuels to the tune of $7trillion US dollars or approx 7% of world GDP every year. We're paying way more than the barrel/pump price.
I know you're fairly good on transport. The reason why it seems so cheap to drive a car in NZ is because the costs are not incurred at the point of purchase i.e. buying fuel. There are massive hidden subsidies all the way through the roading system. It's no different with fossil fuel energy at a global scale.
Chris, withdraw and apologise.
Then stop assuming.
Then listen.
I've been advocating how to live low-impact, for decades. And walking the walk. If you didn't want to listen, fine. If you're nuance/tone deaf, fine.
But time you started thinking, doing some homework.
Lots of credit applications include a personal guarantee section.
If you are clever you'll cross that all out and then argue the point later on.
Also, shareholders are only liable up to the value of their shares (which is why credit applications often have a personal section).
Amongst my many roles, one is to fill out credit applications - primarily to identify personal guarantees (most of our staff are pig ignorant on these matters if I'm to pass judgement). Some credit apps don't have them, some are buried deep in the fine print. Credit apps that come in readable pdfs can have keyword searches, which makes it easier to find: personal or guarantee or variations on the spelling of those words.
I agree about the bigger firms thing. Especially if you are bigger than your supplier but you can get away with crossing out if the person in the credit control department of the supplier is just as ignorant as my workmates about the relevance of a personal guarantee. Too many firms put their dumbest people into the "accounts" office...
That's exactly how it works. Plus provisional tax which is a nightmare.
But on the other hand.... imagine something like Uniswap token when they get the fee switch turned on. Now you are earning say 20% dividends from the token. Sounds a lot like a share doesn't it? Acquired for passive income you might even say.
I've paid seven figures in tax on crypto. Yes prov tax is a nightmare because you estimate as you go or pay with an uplift. Neither of these works. I'm often in a loss for the first half of the tax year, then in a huge positive position second half. And yes there is tax pooling which I use but again how do you know how much to put in the pool ?
A billionaire (grudgingly - yeah right) endorses Trump ... I can't think why ... Can you?
Jeff Bezos optimistic about working with a ‘calmer’ Donald Trump
Holy cow, look at those government books compared to last year: https://www.treasury.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2023-12/fsgnz-4mths-oc…
Did Net Crown Debt increase from 21.5% of GDP last year compared to 43.2% this year? Surely not
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