Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
BNZ cut some short rates to market levels, an has started raising longer rates as the curve inversions fade. Details here. ICBC trimmed short rates too, and also raised longer ones. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
ICBC made matching term deposit rate cuts today. All updated rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
SELLER'S AGENTS TALK UP HOW GOOD IT IS FOR BUYERS
Barfoot & Thompson's sales and selling prices both headed higher in November but the agency has a mountain of stock to deal with.
NEGATIVE TRADING
September quarter trade data was released today, combining both goods and services. We may be a "trading nation" but apparently we are not so good at it. For the September quarter, there was an overall trade deficit of -$6.9 bln. (But at least that was less than the -$8.1 bln deficit in the year to September 2023.) And the only trading partners we ran a significant surplus with in this latest quarter ($100 mln or more) were Taiwan, Canada, Hong Kong, the Philippines, Saudi Arabia. and the UAE. All up, these six totaled +$1.1 bln. But that was swamped by deficits with the EU (-$2.1 bln), Singapore (-$1.6 bln), Korea (-$1.5 bln), China (-$0.5 bln), and Australia (-$0.4 bln). We are in balance with the US.
HARDEST HIT
The wholesale trade sector is being hit hard as business failures mount. According to updated Centrix data, the hardest hit sectors are wholesale trade, construction and transport.
NZX EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
Check out our quick update of how the NZX is faring today, as at 3pm. Mercury, Tourism Holdings, Argosy Property, and Genesis all gain for the day overshadowed from declines by Serko, Meridian, Vista Group, and SkyTV.
HIGHER MILK PAYOUT
Māori-owned low-carbon dairy company, Miraka, has updated its base milk price for this current season, now with a mid-point of $9.60/kgMS, in a $9.10 to $10.10 range.
DOING ITS [SMALL] BIT
Despite scepticism by some political, farming and business lobby groups, Westpac NZ is pushing ahead with its ESG goals. It announced its 2027 targets today and those included increasing sustainable lending to $9 bln (from $7 bln currently of $102.1 bln total lending, or 7%), increasing lending in support of affordable housing solutions by +$1 bln, and reducing its own operational emissions in line with 1.5˚C. Generally bank lending will come with increasing obligations on borrowers to de-risk climate impacts, not only at Westpac, but at all banks.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed again today. Our chart below will record the final positions. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -4 bps from this time yesterday, now at 4.33%. The China 10 year bond rate has bounced off its low at 2.00% and is now at 2.03%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -4 bps at 4.43% while today's RBNZ fix was 4.38% and also down -3 bps. The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.19% and down another -3 bps. Their 2yr is down at 4.18%, so that positive curve is now just +1 bp.
EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 has fallen -0.3% in late trade today. The ASX200 is up +0.6% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +1.7% at their open. Hong Kong is down -0.4% at its open and Shanghai is down the same. Singapore is starting strong, up +1.0%. Wall Street started its week with a modest +0.2% gain on the S&P500.
OIL SLIPS MARGINALLY
The oil price is little-changed from yesterday, still at US$68/bbl in the US, but down -50 USc to US$71.50/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE STILL ESSENTIALLY ON HOLD
The carbon price is minorly firmer today at US$63.80/NZU today. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD ON HOLD
In early Asian trade, gold is essentially unchanged from this time yesterday, still at US$2635/oz.
NZD STILL SOFT
The Kiwi dollar is -30 bps lower than where we opened this morning, back to 58.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are still at 90.8 AUc. And against the euro we are still at 56 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 68.3 and down -10 bps.
BITCOIN FALLS
The bitcoin price has fallen to US$95,448 and down -2.5% from where we were this time yesterday. Volatility of the past 24 hours has remained modest at just over +/- 1.7%.
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44 Comments
Auckland Council to have control over its transport council controlled organisation."
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/535549/watch-regional-transport-po…
The Council Controlled Organisation of Auckland Transport will be turned into a service delivery agency by transferring strategy, policy and planning functions to the control of Auckland Council, under new Government reforms.
Funnily, Chris is often wrong via total avoidance of physics, but he is right this time in spite of same.
Nothing can change the inexorable trends overtaking us all. Changing guards, least of all (apols to Alice - but then, fairytales seem to be the current theme).
Entropy will win.
https://youtu.be/7DWpvjTDAos?si=r0so7CC-naD_uk1j
MIT-educated neurosurgeon quits job to spend more time in nature, says civilization collapse is unavoidable
The bitcoin price has fallen to US$95,448 and down -2.5% from where we were this time yesterday.
Some strange things happening at the moment. Financial analyst and media tart Tom Lee suggests that exchanges don't want ratty over 100K because supply has dried up. TBH, I'm not really sure why that matters as depending on the jurisdiction exchanges don't necessarily need to hold reserves.
Then, arguably the most hated of cryptos XRP has astounded everyone and up 436% in a month. However retail trade doesn't seem excessive. Many Bitcoin maxi influencers losing their rag as normies' attention is diverted away from the King.
Go woke. Oz having it's intermittent moment in a land awash with hydrocarbons and the world's largest uranium reserves. Never let ecotards near your energy systems.
South Australians could be left in the dark this summer with a fresh warning of possible blackouts. The state government is calling for two mothballed diesel-powered generators to be immediately restarted amid concerns a lack of supply could force load shedding.
NSW $952/MWh
https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-…
Yeah but the performance of it in New Zealand is so so. Also putting on your roof is a pain in the arse, its so much better on the ground where its easy to service and doesn't compromise your roof, can be set at the correct angle and direction. The point is Aussie is a massive land mass with totally wasted space that is ideal for solar farms.
Fair point that Australia has massive unutilised land areas which could/should be used for solar farming. It would cost relatively little - major cost would be transmission to point of use. But I disagree with comments on rooftop solar. Modern panels are not as sensitive to solar angle as previously so mounting flat works very well if north/west/east facing roof is not available. They don’t compromise your roof. And they are producing right beside your loads so little distribution infrastructure required. Last month the 10 panels I have on flat roof in Auckland produced 566 kWh - far more than I consumed. Nice getting no bill.
Apparently we have an energy crisis here too.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/energy-crisis-this-problem-will-not-fix-i…
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/energy-crisis-details-of-electri…
Immigration isn't the cause. How we use the energy and the structures (corporate for profit vs reliable, sustainable and affordable) to allocate it are. It's another one of those societal necessities.
Can’t generalise about Australian energy as each state is so different. SA has gone big on renewable and done amazingly well given they’re not blessed with much hydro, but they need more storage. Sydney has done great with private rooftop solar but NSW still too dependent on coal. Different scenario in each capital city and state
Some contrary results here?
Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for November 2024 shows the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition on 50.5% (up 2.5% points) consolidating their lead over the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) on 44% (down 3% points).
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating jumped 18pts to 104 in November – the first time Government Confidence has been in positive territory above 100 for nearly three years since January 2022.
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9773-nz-national-voting-intention-no…
The tax cuts might have won National the election but they have been forgotten now. Instead we are seeing what that $3 billion a year is not being spent on - health, ferries, etc.
Personally I think the coalition are doing better than I expected and Luxon is doing pretty well. But voters never seem to think the same way I do.
I think it was "anyone but Labour" who won the election. Interesting that while TPM support doubled with the Hikoi ACT is stable (didn't reduce). Perhaps Luxon is being perceived as a typical middle manager rather than a dynamic leader personality (nothing wrong with that IMO, but many voters like easy simplistic solutions cf USA)
GDP doesn't convert into meaningful prosperity or wellbeing for everyone. Economic theory demands a certain level of unemployment. Then there's meaningful employment and create work employment. Apparently we're too attached to money, don't like others getting it for free, even though we might be demanding it for free ourselves.
We throw out these words and statements of prosperity, standard of living, but no real idea what they are. We demand it for ourselves yet do nothing to help others, and then put the blame and shame on them. We shift the goalposts further out of reach and then wonder why the division and inequality is getting wider.
Still looking...?
I did find plenty of broken promises
Dunedin Hospital and this one
Luxon's pre-election promise would have provided new and recently registered nurses and midwives up to $4500 annually towards student loan repayments, totaling $22,500 over five years. It was announced by the National leader in May 2023.
Luxy now back tracking...after the ferry announcement can he please resign, it's quite obvious is is very far out if his depth.
Did you see the recent interview with Jack Tame? He performs pretty badly at most functions of being a prime minister. Likely why he tries to keep away from sit down TV interviews as much as possible. It shows up his lack of intellectual ability. He prefers Tiktok where nobody can challenge him.
The fact he doesn't hold any ministerial portfolios apart from being the PM points to his lack of interest in detail or being held accountable for anything.
He does not command respect with his coalition partners, who freely and openly undermine him fairly regularly. His partners clearly out-manoeuvred him in the coalition negotiations.
He has led a government who consistently misleads the electorate and then brushes off any accountability. Examples include "no cuts to health or education", "$200 tax cuts for working families" and "15 layers of bureaucracy in Health".
His government has caused the largest protest in NZ history to occur, and that protest happens to be against his government.
He talks about lowering unemployment, while unemployment grows to levels not seen since covid.
He talks about stopping government borrowing, but still can't tell us when his government will not be in deficit.
He talks about improving productivity, and then incentivises landlording, with the reasoning that "people want to get ahead". Effectively giving a green light to increasing inequality for no overall gain to NZ.
Interesting article on planning and housing in the UK. Zoning is seldom said to be a housing solution!
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/dec/03/radical-planning-reform…
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