It was easy in 2016 to think of Donald Trump as an aberration, a temporary blip in the arc of history which would inevitably bend toward democracy, peace, and open economies.
His reelection confirms that was not the case. History has not yet ended and the orbit of global politics has brought us back to the 1970s, or even the 1930s.
In both these periods, economic and geopolitical insecurities fed off one another and fueled protectionism, nationalism, and militarism with pitiful outcomes — and it’s happening again.
Trump now looks more like an early adopter, than an aberration. He didn’t just fall out of a coconut tree, he exists in the context of all that came before him.
China started to ramp up its industrial policies in 2013, Russia annexed Crimea a year later, ISIS caused a migration crisis and European backlash in 2015, then the United Kingdom voted for Brexit in 2016.
Heck, there were even street protests in New Zealand over the signing of the Trans-Pacific Partnership that same year. Trump met the moment and withdrew from the deal once elected.
The Republican Party, which was once horrified at Trump’s hostile takeover bid, has transformed completely into the MAGA Party and will not revert back to neoliberalism any time soon.
More people supported his third run at the presidency than ever before, with increased backing across almost all regions and demographic groups—women being the notable exception.
This surge happened despite more scandals than anyone could count. Voters don’t seem to care who Trump is; they only care that he isn’t the status quo.
When he leaves office in 2029 he will have become the establishment, or it will have become him. His successor will be JD Vance or another MAGA politician, and Democrats will run a candidate who can match their energy somehow.
One of the surprising moments of the election campaign was when Joe Biden traded his presidential cap for a Trump hat, and actually put it on. You can see why he won the swing states, albeit as a younger man.
So, what should New Zealand do when all of America, and much of the world, puts on its MAGA hat? Protectionism, nationalism, and militarism are not options for a small export economy on an isolated island.
Ready for it!
Foreign Minister Winston Peters said the Government’s response had already begun months ago and its diplomats in the United States were expecting Trump to win.
He had already asked veteran diplomat Rosemary Banks to reprise her former role as ambassador to the United States— a position she held when Trump was last in office.
“We've got Rosemary Banks, who I [appointed] back in 2017, because of her links to the Republican Party, and I got her back, this time early, for this change,” he said on Thursday.
It is also possible that Christopher Luxon might be able to use his ‘business-bro’ credentials to befriend Trump and his biggest fan, Elon Musk, who recently said he liked Luxon’s energy.
Peters said it was still two and half months before Trump was sworn in as president and his team of diplomats would use that time to “better understand” his policy agenda.
“We'll also be working on how we can best engage with the new administration on policy cooperation for the mutual benefit of both of our countries and our peoples,” he said.
The top priority will be to secure an exemption from the 10% to 20% tariff Trump plans to slap on all imports. Americans buy $16 billion of goods and services from New Zealand, including 40% of all its wine exports.
John Ballingall, a trade economist at Sense Partners, said it would be difficult for primary industry producers to find alternative buyers for many of their products.
The European Union, which makes plenty of its own wine, has restrictive trade rules on meat and dairy and Chinese demand for NZ products has been slowing with its economy.
“It is going to be a really challenging period for exporters. It is not free or cheap to change markets [even if] the demand is there,” Ballingall told RNZ.
Damien O’Connor, the Labour Party’s trade spokesperson and former minister, said the knock-on effects of the tariffs could be as bad for New Zealand as the tariffs themselves.
“The displacement of goods that might have gone into the US, going into other markets like China or Europe [instead] will affect our exporters regardless of whether they sell into the US or elsewhere,” he told reporters.
Oddly, there are rumors around that Trump might be open to a free trade deal. Peters said they had been “right on the cusp” during his last term and may now have another chance.
It feels unlikely that the MAGA Party would suddenly sign a new trade agreement. But perhaps it might be used to keep Kiwis out of the crossfire when taking economic shots at its rivals.
Another tailwind may be New Zealand’s recent attempt to align itself more closely with the United States and shuffle awkwardly away from its biggest trading partner, China.
Many former politicians and trade officials in New Zealand are already aghast at how government is risking China trade by backing aggressive US security policies.
How could that continue if Trump shuts our exports out, while Xi Jinping holds the door wide open? If both superpowers turn out to be autocratic and protectionist, who cares which we side with?
America isn’t there yet but New Zealanders should seek some assurances before literally betting the farm that it won’t go that way.
158 Comments
A more astute appraisal than most.
Trump is unstable and erratic, but when the masses feel they're going backwards under the current set-up (whatever it may be) they vote it out. And - when the stress is REALLY on, they go for alpha males. Doesn't matter if they're unhinged.
The problem is that we are on a globally sinking ship, in resource/energy terms. Too many now starting to compete for ever less. This doesn't come through the kind of projection that Breakfast Briefing gives us, nor indeed through the global MSM. Thus the MSM were caught flat-footed (I won my non-monetary bet about Trump and the magnitude being bigger than 2016 - and I own copies of How the Hell did this happen, and The Truths We Hold, and more.
That increased competition will increase protectionism, and eventually lead to war(s). Those will be interesting, given that all combatant nations would need parts from each other... (this happened during WW1, don't think it can't). In the mix is the US petro-dollar - it may well collapse - which would be the end of western dominance.
But the big thing to remember, as Dan got - is that Trump is a symptom, not a cause. More than 50% of America thinking that was the best option, is the salient point.
The left moved to the middle and accepted the dominance of corporations/capital. Instead focusing on social issues which are absolute anchors when it comes to a popular vote. Labour dying on the co governance aspect of three waters, instead of giving the same attitude towards capital gains and other reforms is a good example of this.
This is an age where we need some truely inspirational and enlightened leaders with exceptional charisma to take hold and steer the ship. Instead we have impotent career politicians. Trump is definitely the symptom of the lack of true leadership for our collective civilisation.
Me too - especially in light of how quickly he "melted down" when baited in the debate with Kamala. And then there was his "I hate Taylor Swift" post on Truth Social at 2 in the morning the day she endorsed Kamala.
Gotta laugh. He also said at one rally he was "prettier than Kamala" (I think that was in reference to her image on a Time cover) and at other rallies, he talked about having a "bad hair" day.
We used to call his type "pretty boys". What's funny is he's never grown out of that image of himself and he's a 78 year old man!
I recall the cover of the Economist magazine depicting president elect Ronald Reagan under the caption “ Warts and All.” Of course he served two terms but there were suspicions concerning his acuity during his second term, if not earlier when he was younger than president elect Trump right now. The thing is though Donald Trump will assume office next year. Protesting and complaining about it is simply caterwauling and possibly counterproductive to one’s own wellbeing if one becomes over passionate about it, and in my view, especially irrelevant from a small remote nation at the south east end of the line. Whatever, however it is the people of the USA have spoken and really the remainder of the world can like it or lump as far as Trump is concerned I would imagine.
Last presidency Trump asked the question - does the USA need the world as much as the world needs the USA. He already has answered it. The USA will take care of itself first and foremost. Tariffs will either overprice imports or cut them off with the intention that the USA will then make good with its own. For example simplistically, the USA makes vehicles good enough to get folk from A to Z, why do we need those of other countries. And possibly threatening in the background, not yet tabled, is the prospect of quotas the antithesis of the free market, globalisation and on.
@ Hastings - Problem is Luxon has more energy than the rest of the mps, hence why he was voted in & not one of the others. He is unfortunately the best of what we have. To change this we need to change how we vote. We need a party from the people, for the people if we are to accomplish such.
whatever Trump may or may not do -- NZ should be more worried that the US has again elected him -- and that other democracies around the World are doing similar.
it would be good if all our politicians looked at this -- and attempted to remind themselves of what Democracy stands for -- and to start representing the peoples views and wishes and not inflicting their warped and ancient ideology on the country.
NZ will survive these 4 years - Trump may not! But the warning is clear that the people feel they are no longer being heard or represented
It’s because they are dumb, or they still think there are lots of people that accept misinformation. We are a few years behind the US where media representing the same falsehoods as NZ media does is slowly dying. As we can see in TVNZ and TV3, it’s starting to happen here. Talking to a few US clients this week, they were celebrating. One asked me what NZers thought of Trump. I told him. He was confused. I told him how our media behave and what the general public believe (with access to no information). He reaction was to say….’what a sad little country”.
Back in 2016 I seemed to be the only Trump supporter online and amongst friends and family. Not sure what point Frank is trying to make, it was pretty obvious what most NZers thought. Is he claiming there was actually a strong undercurrent of Trump supporters in NZ?
I see it hasn’t taken the dummies much time to completely fabricate a story that Elon Musk is a mate of, you guessed it Putin. Russia, Russia, Russia. Worked so well the first time….until it got found to be a complete lie….don’t worry NZ media will breathlessly report (without evidence) this information.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world-news/360481558/alarm-over-elon-musk-and-n…
He doesn't need evidence. We're in the post truth era. He has picked a side. Rationality doesn't matter. The global media is logically owned by very wealthy people, as most things that are owned are. However somehow they're of extreme 'liberal' bias.
THIS is what the left have failed to adapt to. Facts don't matter. Averagejoe is far more firm in his beliefs than almost anyone in these comments. He's also almost certainly far less educated.
Interesting, my impression is that the MSM is extreme left rather than liberal, I think the American people felt gender/identity was over represented and people are waking up to the fact that the money is broken and skewed towards the large corporations. That big Pharma are more interested in profit than health, That wars are now treated as just another business which funnels money from the tax payer into private business. Also that free speech is a constitusional right and that locking people up disagreeing government policy on social media was looking like the next step.
Query as to you tld him what you believe New Zealanders think of Trump and his response was what a sad little country.
My response remains when I saw him enter our world stage in 2016, if Trump entered a room I'd leave quick smart. You see, as a woman I recognise a predator. If a I wanted a man to beat me, and rape me please question my sanity.
I do not get when people see men like him as being okay.
If you take Trump at his word, then the country elected a wannabe authoritarian dictator president, who destroys social cohesion by creating internal enemies to blame for everyones problems. His running mate said as much about him when he called him Americas Hitler. Trump has used a lot of the same ideology as Hitler in his speeches, including suggesting that crime is inbuilt into peoples DNA. Trump was being investigated for attempting to steal the last election with coercion and violence.
The argument that the media should celebrate what is going on, otherwise they are racist, has no basis in fact or reason whatsoever.
As such, our Big Media's ongoing evisceration of Trump constitutes nothing less than racist & sexist attacks on Black Americans, Hispanics, Muslims, on American women
The US MSM is blaming minorities directly for the election result. It seems that the moral, ethical, intellectual benchmarks are set by the white liberal elite. If minorities don't follow their standards, then they will be called out for it.
Back to our little bubble, the white liberal elite in Aotearoa has been wearing the pants in my opinion. Minorities always need their approval.
@ kpnuts - You seem more than a little confused as to what a democracy actually is. Allow me to enlighten you.
Democracy - The word democracy comes from the Greek words "demos", meaning people, and "kratos" meaning power; so democracy can be thought of as "power of the people": a way of governing which depends on the will of the people.
The will of the people didn't choose Harris because they were sexiest, or because they were racist. You & the leftist loonies would like to believe that is true, that only white racist men voted Trump, but the reality is that is false. More black woman voted for Trump than they did Kamala. Why is that? Again, you & the leftiest loonies can't understand that the majority were sick of making decisions bases on ficticious DEI policies, & voting based on sex & gender. If the best person for the job is a white alpha male, that's exactly who we are voting for. Buy you leftist loones have to make it all about race & gender, which is exactly why you don't understand why Kamala lost, & lost big time too. Almost all swing state voted Trump, & you & the rest of the lefty loones are loosing their minds over it, you cannot understand, as everything for the left is geared towards race baiting & sexual orientation.
Despite what you've been lead to believe, a democracy isn't vote for race & sexual orientation or your a racist & sexiest. That's left BS. A democracy as it states "the will of the people". The majority choose Trump. The minority need to get over that. They didn't just choose Trump for Trump, they chose Trump based on what they didn't want - more of the same. People were sick of leftist idealogy being pushed, it was getting insane. Exact same thing happened in NZ, & we voted it out too.
..."and to start representing the peoples views and wishes and not inflicting their warped and ancient ideology on the country."
The electoral system in both NZ last year & US most recently has done just that, represented what the peoples views were. It represented the majorities views, not the minority. The majority said no to the pushed draconian tyrant type ideologies, much to the screaches of the minority. This is a democracy - the majority rules, the minority have no choice but to suck it up till next election time.
What you believe to be a democracy, is actually a dictatorship - by where the minority rule, & tell everyone else whay they can & can't do, say, buy, invest in, wear, believe, research ect. You along with the rest of the minority will find better success & more comfort in places thay actively practise such, like North Korea & China. They have "the democracy" that you leftist loonies advocate for. The rest of the Western world has just proven both in NZ & US, to totally reject the ideologies of the left.
" warped & ancient ideology on the country."
This would be conservatism, & it's closely may he'd with basic common sense & sound logic. This is what we voted for in both countries. Just because "it's old" & "traditional" doesn't make it out of date & incorrect. Both western countries in the end have turned back to such traditions, making the lefts odd ideology they've been pushing the last nearly decade now both "warped & ancient".
you feel the minority is not being represented, and the rest of us say good! About time the majority stand up to the insanity & take back from being held hostage by the minority of leftist loones. If Kamala was being threatened to be "taken out as she poses a threat to democracy" the left would absolutely loose it. It'd be on every media outlet for months. It'd be all they could talk about. It'd be a hate crime & a race crime. Mass rioting would ensue. But because Trump is a white alpha male, & the left hate strong males, as it unravels their ideology, they are not strong enough when going up against a strong alpha male, the attempted assassination of Trump is considered "nesasary & expected". Take your insanity elsewhere.
More black woman voted for Trump than they did Kamala
Where did you get this false knowledge from?
Black voters have for decades predominantly voted for the Democratic Party — and that pattern, on the whole, hasn’t changed.
Harris appears to have won 80 percent of the Black vote, according to an exit poll by The Associated Press.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-election-2024-results-how-black…
Although not broken down by gender - my primary school math tells me you can't win 80% of the total black vote if more than 50% of the women (roughly half the total number of black voters) voted for Trump.
I think you need to put your rubbish bag back on.
Black voters have for decades predominantly voted for the Democratic Party — and that pattern, on the whole, hasn’t changed.
Trump increased his share of the Black vote compared to 2020.
- Trump received about 20% of the Black vote in 2024, up from 13% in 2020 and 8% in 2016. This marks the highest level of Black voter support for a Republican since George W. Bush in 2000
Gains were particularly notable among younger Black men.
- Trump nearly doubled his support among young Black men under 45, with about 30% voting for him in 2024 compared to around 15% in 2020.
Overall Black voter support for Democrats declined:
- Kamala Harris won about 80% of Black voters, down from the approximately 90% that Joe Biden received in 2020.
.
Gowoke is laughable, period.
But so is the MSM, clinging to the belief that 'money is a store of wealth' - which is an untruth.
Danyl McLachlan at the Listener, is one of the biggest peddlers of that falsehood - and most of his posits are based on it.
Pity - he's probably smarter than me, IQ-wise - but he pours out garbage.
Well thank you for the history -- but either my post was poorly written or you are missing the point - Whilst Not a Trump Fan - i am right of centre in my thinking generally -- and was pleased when he was first elected as i hoped it would awaken americans to the state of their democracy -- in 12 years they have had th choice of Hilary - Biden Harris -- or Trump -- from 360 million people -
I think th results are a totally fair reflection of America having spent a few weeks there recently and a couple of months in central and south america where the election was a hot topic! -
MY issues are that out and other global media no longer produce or report in an unbiased manner -- and that partly as a result of that and partly the influence of social media soundbites and the fact that many people are unwilling or unable to source real information -- and look beyond this -- is crippling how our governments are elected and of course operate
For the record -- i voted Key - Jacinda ( to keep teh greens out) and then Luxon - and only Key was a positive choice the other two were lesser of two evils!
Yes - Harris was a DEI appointment - go back to Biden’s criteria for his VP. A very large chunk of disadvantaged white males had a guts full of woke that was in the background of Harris’ campaign and voted accordingly. Do I think trump will satisfy these voter, hell no, and he will suffer the consequences, the only question is what damage can he do in the meantime and what will the Republicans do that will get them reelected plus what will Democrats do to be an effective opposition.
I believe he has alluded to this on multiple occasions, he wants to focus on the US for a while to recover from the damage that has been done to their economy, clean up their own backyard so to speak.
He didn’t say forever, that said I’m sure our position would given strategic consideration as a five eyes nation.
The remaining four of the five eyes really need to think about intelligence sharing with a Trump administration. We need to be acutely aware that Trump is transactional, not diplomatic.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/cia-could-be-politicized-under-tru…
A civil service operating under patronage at the expense of neutrality is quite obviously susceptible to manipulation and it has hardly been short on corruption either. Trump will now stack with his courtiers favoured over actual capabilities available. The relationships of intelligence gathering is highly complex now with the monumental traffic of the internet & satellite communications. The old cloak and dagger stuff is more or less binned but nevertheless reading your post my first thought went way back - “loose lips sink ships.”
No more a Trump thing than any other incoming president. Unlike NZ a president can employ cabinet members that have not been elected to government and in turn those appointees will select and appoint the senior positions within the various departments. Obviously not every senior position is changed. As a crude depiction put in military terms, the 5 star general gets to pick his other generals and they get to pick the colonels and further down the ranks if they choose. In all there is in the vicinity of 4,000 such appointees and some of which require Senate approval. That’s why I wrote “ under patronage.”
Yes. The SS Woke, SS ClimateScam and the SS GenderNonsense and others in the fleet are now listing badly, after being pummelled by the SS Trump. Soon they will sink and be gone forever. This is the first stage of the cleanup. I see Kate below moaning that we should reconsider our information sharing with the US. Come on Kate, they are the biggest part of it and you think we should exclude them. Don’t think so. US will clean up it’s act and become more organised and more powerful over the next four years of Trump, and that will continue under Vance. So I think we should just play nice.
You are pinning a lot on Trump and his ability. While I don't doubt that Trump will try and stack the federal government with Republicans. The issue I see is that the rank and file - those who do the actual work - may not actually share Republican views. Now Trump can replace them but at what cost ( efficiency, experience etc).
You seem to have a fixation with woke and gender identify politics - why - yes I know it is nuts but is this a reason to get enraged about it.
While I'm on the fence about climate change as a good shepherd we need to look after the environment. While planting trees is not the total solution it is a good place to start. I'm sure those who denied climate change will baying for blood as the world dies around them.
Lastly I find it fascinating that those on the right are so subservient to infallibly of Trump. Are they worried that he won't live up to their expectations , that he is as bad as others have made out (buyer's remorse already)
Yep. I agree. Looking after the environment is a good thing. I do a lot myself. But listening to idiots that proposed solutions that won’t work while not even doing the basics is not my cup of tea. Anyway, we won’t here much from them any more, which is a good thing.
- Well. I could look forward to the lefties in charge taking nonsense and then calling me sexist, racist or a boomer/old or whatever, but it won’t happen, because they are now (or soon will be) unemployed. You see, with no platform, they don’t matter. A unique set of circumstances, probably never to be repeated gave them power. They showed their true colours and now they are irrelevant.
Unemployed? No platform?
Why, will all "lefties" (as you say) be sent to the gulag?
Are you living in the US?
Someone suggested you are a bot - and the number in front of your response implies a cut and paste of some random paragraph of total irrelevance having been selected by you.
You are indeed entertaining, if nothing else :-)..
Eewww, the thought of playing nice with a rapist who in that trial deposition explained that as a "star" he had the right to grab women by their pu$$y without consent, instills dread and disgust in me (and many around the world and in the US, I suspect);
https://www.mic.com/articles/166517/meet-the-german-artist-whose-viral-…
Trump was convicted of sexual assault because of the historical timing of the offense. At the time the offence was committed, NY statute did not include penetration of a female vagina with fingers as being rape. That statute has since been amended to included vaginal penetration by a digit(s) (I think that's the wording now) in the definition of rape in NY statute and hence, the Judge's clarification as per the above link..
"US will clean up it’s act and become more organised and more powerful over the next four years of Trump, and that will continue under Vance"
I think there is close to zero chance that the Republicans will be re-elected in four years time, no matter who the alternative is.. By then, the people who voted Trump in, will have realised that they are far worse off than they are today.
Yeah, but it will still all be the fault of the democrats, the gays, the Chinese, the immigrants, the trans people etc.. The thing is, that 'the others are the problem' rhetoric doesn't ever stop working for those who want to believe it. Logic has left the building.
I have heard a quote recently, can't remeber where from, that the biggest problem with so many lies being spread so fast is not that people will believe them, but that people become incapable of recognizing truth when they see it.
Those are the policies that got him elected Kate, emphatically. Voters want the border closed, they want "Big State" shrunk, they want lower taxes, they want to stop the forever wars and they want their jobs protected. Tariffs are a winner for the US, they are not an export led economy. All Western economies are bloated, they need shrinking and we need lower taxes.
The "left" have had 12 of the past 16 years in power. You, and the other commentators, need to accept the will of the US public and will just have to wait to judge the results. I happen to like Vance and could see him being the next President quite comfortably. Instead of the relentless criticism of Trump, you should focus on where it all went so wrong for the Democrats. You are also fixated with Trump whereas many voters looked through him to his bench which is undeniably talented.
He is labelled a mysogenist yet his first act was to appoint the first ever female Chief of Staff.
I know they did - but even my son who voted for the guy doesn't think he'll enact/keep those promises.
If he does, and particularly if he does it quickly, he'll get punished by the electorate in the mid-terms.
Already it looks like neither of the leading candidates for Leader of the Senate majority are full on MAGA. And that's already got Trump sycophants worried.
Your son voted for Trump? I shouldn't laugh.... There are analogies with NZ in that the centre left drifted too left and they paid a heavy price for that. I think the Democrats were arrogant and expected the "slebs" to do all the work for them. Instead of policy, they attacked Trump relentlessly.
As one former democrat voter said, the US is first and foremost about the "American Dream" and the Democrats took that away.
Your son voted for Trump? I shouldn't laugh
That's okay - as he's always a conservative voter in NZ. This was his first US election where he exercised his vote because he moved there (our kids are dual-citizens). And we always laughed as well here in NZ - it was then good-humoured banter.
But that changed slowly, but surely once settled into Montana - a very conservative-leaning state. He works in an office environment - which is just off a reception area. The reception area has Fox News always on - channel is never changed. He eventually became hostile toward our opinions. It hasn't split him up with me but his radicalization over-tested his father and his brother. As males they just could not take that he was voting for someone who objectifies women, even his own daughter.
Kate- the size of Trumps win indicates that US voters probably understand the realities of what has happened to their quality of life under the Demonrats and are prepared to accept the pain of any mistakes the new administration makes and the time to see changes turn into benefits, in other words voter regret as hap[ened in NZ under ardern and currently happening in the UK were Rishak and clowns were slaughtered only to be replaced by Stalin who is the most hated and unpopular Pm in the shortage time increasing taxes and lying - a price will be paid in five years possbly sooner. Watch Germany now the Scholtz Govt is collapsing and see if AFD rises from No 2 to No1.
Any claims that the trend in that graph have changed in any way just shows how out of touch you are. The takeover of 'merica by the rich has been ongoing for 40+ years.
Pretty much beginning with some Republican called Reagan in 1981. It was great. Massive tax cuts for the rich because, you know, "trickle down theory" made so much sense. And most recently, The Orange One handed out more tax cuts for the rich between 2016 and 2020 which are only due to expire about now. (Another reason why the billionaires lined up behind him, if case you were unaware. They want those tax cuts made permanent and they will get it.)
Every time the Republicans get in - laughably because they talk nonsense about 'deficits' - they hand out tax cuts for the rich and tiny ones for everyone else because somehow 'growth' will reduce deficits.... And suddenly the deficits don't seem to matter anymore. The last president that actually reduced the deficit was a Democrat way back in 1993-2001. (I seem to recall he lied about a blowjob so was impeached but not removed. Oh. The irony.)
It's pretty damn simple as to why the Orange One won. Just look at those graphs.
The problem for 90% of Americans is that neither the Dems, nor the Republicans, have any damn interest in fixing anything because both parties are controlled by exactly the same set of people.
This is how empires and democracies die. We're lucky to be witnessing it.
With you on that one - it's beyond belief actually. It's also why I like Elizabeth Warren - perhaps one of the only politicians that might focus on that and that only - and she can write good legislation. Corporate law; banking law - her expertise is right where it needs to be. Her Corporate Accountability Bill was an innovative/clever start at addressing this issue - I have no idea why it didn't progress under Biden's first two years. Likely, as you suggest, neither of the 'corporate' arms of either party want to do a damn thing about it.
"Likely, as you suggest, neither of the 'corporate' arms of either party want to do a damn thing about it."
No 'likely' about it.
Any hint of the rich paying their fair share by any potential Dem candidates and the Dem's billionaire donors threatened to exit to the other side. Every single time there was a hint - by any Democratic candidate - the same Dem donors were reported to be blocking any such suggestion. If you want to check this out - find the big Dem donors and then google search for their statements on any type of taxes that would see them paying more. The only politicians that escape this control are way down at the House level where a few are tolerated.
The USA is no longer a democracy. It has become a plutocracy, i.e. government by the wealthy. (edit: that link even suggest today's USA!)
Will 'mericans eventually work this out? IMO it is unlikely while media, both mainstream and social, is controlled by the wealthy.
Maybe we need another Theodore Roosevelt? (You no doubt know how he got into main seat. ;-)
Listening to Darcy Ungaro from NZ Everyday Investor, he said that one future could be we substitute taxes for monthly subscriptions when the big corporations take over(this was about the 'magnificent 7' and weather continued support for for just large corps is a good idea).
It's fortunate that we threw out Labour before Trump's epic return to power. A shame about the UK but Keir Starmer and his ilk are most likely doomed, which will come as a relief to most British people I am sure.
Trump is not isolationist, he is very pro Western and the Anglosphere countries hold an especially esteemed position in the hierarchy. He has a close connection with the UK and to Germany. But it is classic Western values and ideas that he supports, not the nonsense and madness of recent years.
When you look at the other great powers none of them have alliances anywhere near approaching what the US has. In fact they appear to have hardly any friends or admirers at all. Beyond the Anglosphere the US has very close ties with most of the European nations and in the East with Japan, Taiwan and South Korea. This is very valuable and not something that Trump will just throw away.
There has been a massive paradigm shift toward Trump and what he stands for. It's obvious in all the news articles and opinion pieces coming out now. In fact those with TDS need to be aware that to be like this is extremely cringe. This comeback has made Trump legendary. Journalists and commentators need to reflect and try and understand why.
The working class in the USA, like here, are living paycheck-to-paycheck, in precarious and unsatisfying job(s). They are struggling to afford a reasonable quality of life - and the lives of the people they see driving the flash cars round town seems completely unattainable. Biden / Harris stripped away the COVID era protections, which had given people doing it tough a little bit of breathing space through 2021 and 2022.
Harris initially set out to offer the working classes something - action on price gouging, minimum wage guarantees, smashing monopolies etc. But the billionaire and corporate backers of the democratic party joined up with the reckonomist class to squeeze the more progressive elements out of the pitch. After all, the economy was going great guns, just explain this to the people who are working two jobs and... all will be good, they'll vote for you because of GD.bloody.P!
Trump meanwhile offered people to blame (leftists, immigrants etc), vague policies to bring working class jobs back home (tariffs), and, critically, tax breaks and deregulation for the billionaire class.
Guess who won?
That is outstanding analysis, most of which is also now history. Let’s move on, rock and roll, look forward not backward. I like what whatshisface Kamala’s running mate said - It’s done, let’s look for ways to get on board and support where we can. Unfortunately it won’t happen though as 99% of humans would rather whinge and moan and complain and spout their hatred.
@ Jfoe - Harris represented 4 years of going backwards. She was more of the same, Bidens shadow. The majority didn't want that. Even you silently admit above that the working class was doing it tough under the already Harris/Biden administration. There's no reason at all to believe this would have improved under just a Harris administration. The majority had seen & experienced enough. People like yourself just need to accept that. More locally, have you accepted the same Ardern/Hipkins defeat? Or has that also completly stumped you as well?
Weird. It is like you knew what I was saying, and then decided the opposite... all in the same paragraph!
Biden/Harris failed the US working class. Absolutely, yes.
Did Ardern/Hipkins too? Absolutely, yes.
Will Trump or Luxon make things worse for the working class. Also, absolutely, yes.
It seems the median wage is about 60k USD - which is actually less than I expected, but still $200k NZD per year for a couple. You shouldn’t be living pay check to pay check on that. The lower quartile is $41k USD or $137k NZD per couple, still quite comfortable isn’t it?
That's terribly funny, JJ.
How quaint that you believe US incomes are still distributed on a nice even bell-shaped distribution curve.
You might want to brush up on your math skills. But don't worry too much about it. Comments like yours are everywhere. And I'd suggest that's a big reason why 'mericans voted for the Orange One.
@JFoe agree wholeheartedly. Just one example left out: a substantial federal minimum wage hike. NZs minimum wage in USD is nearly double theirs. And then I looked at a PPP comparison - that metric sends them (the US consumer) even further down the scale compared to us.
They are a far more low wage economy than we are. Hard to believe.
The world had the opportunity of a good appraisal of China, lest we forget, over the covid pandemic which devastated economies world wide, and yes China too. But no acknowledgement anymore than any apology for its origin and affect. For instance even though the locality was identified and cordoned, outward international flights continued . Ask yourself a basic question would you sooner live under the governments of Washington DC and London or would you prefer those of Moscow or Beijing?
Yes, from what I've read USA stopped funding to the Wuhan lab but a source I read says EcoHealth Alliance funded the lab $600,000. So I ask again, what is your source for "mainly being operated and funded by the USA". If you make a claim like that you should be able to back it up.
The USA was neck deep in the Wuhan lab. Perhaps people need to stop and think logically. How many virology labs are there in China total and how many wet markets are there total in China, then look at the odds that the wet market near the Wuhan lab just happened to be the source of the outbreak. What were the odds ? probably 1000:1 there are only 59 labs Worldwide like the one in Wuhan.
The odds as you put it have been declared as being beyond reasonable doubt by a series of independent genetic scientists, as detailed in the article by James Callaghan BBC noted in my earlier post, that from swabs and other investigation from the wet market, the outbreak occurred there and not the nearby lab.
From what I read, the virus cannot jump from bats to humans without going through another similar species, apparently the jump is too big, ie had to come from a lab.
If the US is funding they are obviously paying for a particular outcome, one thing I read talked about gain of function.
The question of who leaked it China, US or someone else, is one that might come out in 50 years .. or so.
I agree. Also, we are ideologically alined with USA and will still choose to side with it ideologically, even if it will become more autocratic. American autoctracy (if it will go that way) will likely be much softer than a Chinese one, simply because US has a history of a powerful liberal democracy, which will keep holding their version of 'autocracy' back.
Absolutely no point siding with the USA, they are doing us no favours on trade and under Trumps USA first its likely to get worse. NZ just has to stay in the background and ride out the storm, chances are he will not last 4 years anyway and may not even get to take over in January.
Well, Luxon cant do any worse than Ardern did. She went on a trade mission to the US during their infant formula crisis, sat down with Biden, and came away with absolutely nothing for Fonterra and A2 Milk. While several Australian infant formula manufacturers got hundreds of millions of dollars worth of supply contracts, and guaranteed US market access forever.
Turns out Ardern's idea of a trade mission is selling herself.
would inevitably bend toward democracy, peace, and open economies.
His reelection confirms that was not the case.
What was not democratic about this election Dan? Didn't he win the popular vote?
"While Trump scored the Electoral College victory, he also appears to have secured his first popular vote victory in three presidential runs - and the first for Republican since George W. Bush's narrow win over John Kerry in the 2004 presidential election.
According to NBC News, Trump leads the popular vote count with 73,517,201 votes to Harris' 69,204,767 votes as of Friday afternoon."
Election was democratic! But the growth of democracy worldwide has slowed.
Trump himself doesn’t feel strongly about protecting other democracies, eg Ukraine
I agree that he won’t end American democracy, but the fact there is any room for doubt about that is shocking.
Note: the sentence talks about the ‘arc of history’ not Trump or the USA, which are just a detail
One reason I wanted to write this column was to say that Trump is responding to global trends and that’s why he has so much support. He is different but he’s also recognised the world is different, voters agree with him.
@ Dan - "Trump himself doesn’t feel strongly about protecting other democracies, eg Ukraine"
Incorrect. Trump advocates for America first, not allowing criminals to cross the boarders and enter the country illegally, taking jobs away from legal residence. The very definition of protecting a countries democracy, before another countries democracy.
NZ could learn from this. No good saving Ukraine or Palestine when our own country has severe issues that we are facing. Protect, serve & imporve our country first before we focus on someone else's country is exactly democracy. Gor us, if it's improving NZ vs improving Ukraine, Ukraine can burn to the ground. Harsh but end of the day it's the strongest survive, the weak get taken over. Ukraines war is not US or NZs to bear. We have our own problems facing the country. Best we focus less of Ukraines, and more on our own.
I agree that he won’t end American democracy
I think that's optimistic. Given the rule of law has already been so corrupted (and in particular with more than one unconstitutional decision by the highest court) they have already lost a key prong of democracy.
It was already disintegrating into an oligarchy for decades, and jerrymandering was out-of-control, but the Supreme Court rulings on presidential immunity and Chevron have really set the stage for the end of the republic/democracy - and perhaps the end of free/fair elections as well.
Decades of dumbing down America came to its logical conclusion. America elected its worst candidate ever - an utterly terrible human being who campaigned on a bunch of delusional and petty grievances, whilst maintaining the lie that he won 2020.
Gaza, Ukraine, Taiwan, who cares?
Immigrants, watch your back.
A dozen or so trans athletes at a highscool somewhere, THAT was the big issue, right?
Congratulations America. You've got a cruel, ignorant clown with his little orange hands on the nukes again, and a cadre of Himmleresque gargoyles such as Bannon and Miller with carte blanch to carry out their racist agenda.
Honestly take breath, you seem really triggered, what I've noticed from both side is they are using tactics to provoke this kid of reaction. Perhaps try and get some information from an opposing view point and then apply some critical thinking, I think the truth will lie somewhere in between. I actually think having RFK and Elon Musk join him was what gave him the advantage.
Read broken money by Lyn Alden.
Where Donald Trump has always struggled is effectively implementing policies, he talked a lot but didn't get much done. What he says he wants is actually relatively unimportant.
Remember that border wall that, by the time he left office, he had built three miles of? Remember he was going to deport all the illegal immigrants but ended up deporting fewer than all three of his predecessor? He wanted women to start families yet pushed female workforce participation to new records?
He is a weak leader who we can easily exploit to our own ends.
Well they got what they voted for, desperation stuff really reminds me of 1930's Germany, lets find a load of people to blame for the current problems when in reality it was the billionaires that sold out to China for profit by outsourcing all the jobs. They are totally screwed and they have WAY too many guns, its not going to end well.
Right now I'd be watching the bonds.
Somehow The new adminsitration is going to have to borrow money to pay for tax cuts, getting aliens out of the country removing American bases from Europe etc etc.
Who owns that debt.
I'd think the Bond market is going to be very very interesting. Is Japan going to lend. The Saudis, the Brits, EU? or China.
The question is whether countries will want to use US dollars they accumulate by running trade surpluses to buy Govt-backed US Treasuries that earn them interest and are as liquid as cash. The size of the debt isn't important - what matters is who is backing that debt and whether people prefer holding US dollars or US bonds.
Remember that when the US Govt run a deficit they create the dollars (new debt) in bank reserve accounts that are then used to buy bonds. Bond sales are a debt swap - Govts go into debt when they spend and reduce their debt when they collect taxes.
As of September 2024, Japan remains the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury securities, but its holdings have experienced notable fluctuations, particularly a substantial sell-off earlier in the year.
In April and May 2024, Japan sold approximately $59.5 billion in U.S. Treasuries, with a notable $22 billion sold in May alone. This reduced Japan's holdings from around $1.87 trillion in March to about $1.128 trillion by May.
Clearly the USA thinks it can just keep on racking up the debt and it makes no difference at all and I agree right up until BRICS takes over and the USD loses it world reserve currency status. At this point the rest of the world will no longer be beholden to the USA and the shit will really hit the fan. Its almost guaranteed to happen now within the next 10 years.
TRUMP - "I KILLED NORDSTREAM 2"
Indeed he did - along with the German economy, and by definition most of the European economy too - gee, thank's Trumpster!
This deliberate act of blatant financial sabotage will come back and bite Murica big time.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trumps-claims-about-nord-stream…?
..............................................................
IT DOESN'T MATTER WHO WINS THIS TIME AROUND - the loser will be the human race.
... Quoted (written by an American) - I think he nailed it...
"Trump won’t scale back the empire. He is obsessed with American “greatness”, which means that the U.S. will continue to destabilize the international order, enhancing our status as a pariah nation. (Yes, most of the world hates us).
Whoever wins the presidential race, the loser will be the human race. Neither candidate stands for a moral U.S. foreign policy based on mutual respect of national interests and human rights. Both candidates want a world where the U.S. is the apex predator, taking what it wants, when it wants and brutally punishing those who resist.
Is this really the country we want to live in? Is this a country to be proud of? Certainly no moral, sane and decent person would ever answer “Yes”.
In 1821, veteran diplomat and future U.S. president John Quincy Adams warned not to get involved in foreign conflicts “in search of monsters to destroy”, by which he meant to avoid getting involved in wars abroad where we imagine ourselves to be the “good guys” on a noble crusade to save the world.
In searching for monsters to destroy, the U.S. has itself become the monster and greatest threat to the global order. Unless the U.S. returns to the original principles of its Founding Fathers, then this nation is doomed to face the wrath of God for its wickedness. Just don’t be surprised if and when that day comes."
https://globalsouth.co/.../when-an-immoral-nation-votes.../
Colin Maxwell
That was not the point I was endeavouring to make, Zwifter.
Surely anyone who doesn't reside under a rock, knows full well that the U$ has been intent on destroying Europe's extremely inexpensive and reliable supply of Russian gas. When they accomplished this, they effectively eviscerated the German economy, and by definition most of the EU economy along with it.
Trump signed off on the sanctions to halt the completion of NS2-pipe line during his first term, and then Biden presided over its outrageous sabotage. Somehow Uncle $am thought this could be spun as Russia deliberately destroying one of its all-time most productive assets - what an utterly ludicrous accusation.
This illustrates at least three extremely salient points...
#1 The Western hegemon's desperation to project power and subjugate rivals - even when they are supposedly staunch allies - (read vassals).
#2 This overtly destructive policy is a U$ bipartisan effort, supported equally by the Rs and Ds, plus of course, the RHINOs entrenched within both camps.
#3 Trump's complete lack of a healthy moral compass, when he brags about the economic devastation that he helped create for Europe.
Propaganda? - some examples please Zachary.
Besides, no one does propaganda even remotely approaching the monumental efforts of the combined neoliberal West.
GlobalSouth is in reality a very fertile think-tank that dares to discuss extremely uncomfortable home truths, including how the West bombs vital infrastructure, almost as quickly as the BRICS members and the Global South helps to build it.
For example, in Africa...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iiLIksoZ6rI&t=1s
Do I need to mention the 800+ U$ overseas military bases as opposed to China's miserly 1.5?
Or the fact that the U$ 'defence' budget, when you include ALL of the various government and government-funded private agencies, adds up to the next 70 largest countries' military spending combined.
Or the fact that, in every single trouble spot on the entire planet, there is always a common denominator - the U$A.
Or that Russia, apart from its immediate local sphere of influence, has ZERO overseas military bases. Their bases in Syria and Transnistria are relatively strategically close too.
Or the fact that the vast majority of global military spending is a direct response to overtly destructive hegemonic U$/Western action and intent.
If these perpetual troublemakers could only curtail their insatiable greed, humanity could begin to save the $trillions it annually squanders on killing one another and divert that capital into humanitarian projects, and into building sustainable societal wealth in a novel and stable cooperative new global paradigm.
What's not to like?
Cheers
Colin
Trump is very busy now filling in some of the blanks for us - this one is extremely revealing - a NED board member has just been appointed as the new U$ UN representative - the MIC will be ecstatic!
https://www.facebook.com/colin.maxwell.129/posts/pfbid02myHXx7Dyn47ap47…
US Tariffs are for counties that tax US made goods at exceptionally high levels or dump products. As we import US software, aircraft parts, aircraft, various food stuffs, motorcycles and parts without tariffs. What would the US place tariffs on from NZ to US? Alcohol?
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