Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Rabobank has trimmed most of their term deposit rates today. Heartland Bank cut two popular rates (as bib AMP), And BNZ cut -35 bps from its Rapid Saver account to 4.20%. Update: Westpac has trimmed some short TD rates, but raised its 90 day rate by +20 bps to 4.40%. All updated rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
HEADING IN A BETTER DIRECTION
Business confidence shot up another +5 points to its highest level in a decade, while expected own activity ticked up although it is still a net negative. More here.
THOSE WHO TOOK THE PLUNGE IN GOOD SHAPE NOW
First home buyers of 10 years ago are now sitting pretty. Our analysis shows that home owners who bought their first house a decade ago are now well placed to move up the property ladder.
HOUSE PRICES BARELY SUSTAINABLE
The RBNZ says despite house prices easing, purchasing a new house 'remains relatively unfavourable compared with long-term averages'. House prices are still 'around the top' of the Reserve Bank's estimated sustainable level.
NZX EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
Check out our quick update of how the NZX is faring today, as at 3pm. Kathmandu & Tourism Holdings stage a recovery, a2Milk and NZX slip with EBOS & Spark
SHIFTING LOWER & SMALLER
Xero is seeing nearly a third of Kiwi small businesses are reducing their workforces, and says the country's small businesses are reporting continuing sales declines and slowing wages growth.
2900 ENTERPRISES EMPLOY HALF OF WORKERS
StatsNZ released some "business demographics" data today as at February 2024. Most of it recorded little-change. But they do define 'large enterprises' as those with 100 employees or more. There are 2900 of them. And those large businesses grew their workforces to 1,238,000, (up +2.6% in a year). These 2900 enterprises employ half of all employees in New Zealand.
MORE MILK
Fonterra said its local September milk collections were +4.9% ahead of the same month a years ago, +6.1% above last season. Meanwhile in Australia they are running +2.6% ahead of last season.
MORE MARKET STUDIES?
Consumer NZ has written to the Minister of Commerce and Consumer Affairs, urging him to direct the Commerce Commission to undertake a market study into New Zealand’s aviation sector.
MORE SUPPLY THAN DEMAND RAISES QUESTIONS
The World Gold Council said total gold demand in September (inclusive of OTC investment) rose +5% to a record for a third quarter. They say this strength was reflected in the gold price, which reached a series of new record highs during the quarter. The value of demand jumped +35% from a year earlier to exceed US$100 bln for the first time ever. But their same data reported lackluster volume demand. Total demand from the jewellery sector, investors, ETFs and industry was 990 tonnes in the quarter. Total supply other than from central bank selling was 1313 tonnes in the quarter. So the rising price wasn't being pushed by excess demand over supply. It's clearly something else.
MORE DEMAND
There was high demand for the $500 mln on offer in the three NZGB bond tenders today. $1.56 bln was bid, and only 28 bids of the 105 entered were successful. Yields were only marginally higher than at the prior offers two or four weeks ago. There is more than $1 bln in unsuccessful bids, looking for a home.
MORE VALUES EYED
NZ Post released its online shopping review for the September quarter today. They say tough economic conditions continue to influence shoppers’ spending patterns. Online shopping transactions continue to grow, but at a lower average spend each time, as shoppers look online for discounts and cheaper alternatives.
"WE ARE WATCHING YOU SGJ"
The Auditor-General has decided to inquire into the systems and processes that help Ministers to identify and manage conflicts of interest, with a particular focus on Ministerial decisions about which projects to include in the Fast-track Approvals Bill announced in October 2024. The terms of reference set out the background and scope for this work.
DEPOSIT AVERAGES
Households have average of $4,500 in their transaction accounts, $12,750 in savings accounts, and $88,600 in term deposits. These are averages, according to the RBNZ S46 data. Averages however do not reveal the dispersal.
AFFORDABLE HOUSING
Resource consents are underway for up to 300 new affordable, healthy, community-tailored homes helping to support home ownership are set to be built in eastern Porirua. The project was allocated $114.6 mln in government funding in 2022, managed by the Ministry for Pacific Peoples. That is $382,000 per home. The land in eastern Porirua is being leased into perpetuity from Ngāti Toa, aiding affordability.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed, maybe with a hint of softness. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is little-changed at 4.52%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +6 bps at 4.57%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 2.15%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +5 bps from yesterday, now at 4.56% while the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.50% and up +5 bps from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.29% and up +5 bps from yesterday. Their 2yr is up +8 bps at 4.17%, so that curve is now less positive, by +12 bps.
EQUITIES REMAIN MIXED & MINOR
The NZX50 is down -0.1% in late Thursday trade. The ASX200 is down -0.4% in afternoon trade today. Tokyo has opened down -0.6%. Hong Kong is up +0.2% at its open. Shanghai is down -0.4%. Singapore is down -0.9%. Wall Street closed its Wednesday trade with the S&P500 down -0.3%.
OIL FIRMS
The oil price is up +US$1 from this time yesterday, now just over US$68.50/bbl in the US, and just under US$72.50/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE STAYS IN RANGE
The carbon price unchanged today at $63/NZU in quite light trade. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD STAYS HIGH
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$3 from this time yesterday, now at US$2784/oz.
NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from this time yesterday, now at 59.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are still at 91 AUc. And against the euro we are also little-changed at 55.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is at 68.7 and holding.
BITCOIN UP FASTER
The bitcoin price is virtually unchanged from this time yesterday, now at US$72,351. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.0%.
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77 Comments
Commenting on yesterday's 4pm story descended into farce, bullied by extreme views, and pushing the value of reader comments into the gutter. I have hidden it. (Apologies to those who in fact did contribute sensibly.)
Until the US election season calms down, off-topic comments on both this morning review, and our 4pm review stories will be heavily moderated to allow sensible debate to take place. But it will have to be on the topics raised in the story. (Hopefully, more open commenting on off-topic matters will return when the partisan pressures recede. Lets hope that is still an option.)
By the way, the use of the smear 'woke' (a term only now used as a dismissive insult), will be an almost certain trigger for comment deletion.
Please stay away if you want to promote Tommy Robinson / Tony Hinchcliffe / Ryan Girdusky talking points. We just don't need that sort of bile. There are plenty of other comment destinations that allow a sewer stream to run. Try Facebook or Reddit.
BTC and Gold both a strong anti Fiat vote here. Doing ok for pet rocks.
Yes. But if if you vote for gold in any way, you're perceived as a crank. And for ratty, you're seen as an anarchist or criminal.
That to me suggests that people generally don't believe in sound money principles. Lord Orr seems fine with gold and negative on BTC. He states:
- Gold often serves as a hedge against inflation and economic instability.
- Bitcoin does not fulfill the essential functions of money: it is neither a means of exchange, a store of value, nor a unit of account. He argues that while people attempt to use Bitcoin in these capacities, it ultimately falls short.
- Crypto, including Bitcoin, primarily serves as speculative investments rather than functional currencies.
- Stablecoins are "the biggest misnomer," asserting that they are not truly stable. He suggests that their value is contingent upon the financial health and commitment of the issuing entity, making them unreliable compared to fiat currencies backed by central banks.
Without wanting to actually give advice, you could also look at buying shares in gold miners. There are pros and cons to each approach, but in a New Zealand context if you make a profit buying and selling physical gold I strongly suspect you will be required to pay tax on that profit. If you buy and hold shares in a gold miner with the intention of gaining an income via dividends, you may not need to pay tax if you eventually dispose of the shares for a profit.
Limited options in New Zealand, but there are plenty listed on the ASX who may not fall in the FIF regime. Buying shares is also extremely cheap and easy these days.
Mr Orr says, "Bitcoin is not a store of value"
Since 2019 to 2024 the price of eggs doubled, (increased by 95%.)
Our plastic money buys half as many eggs today compared to 2019.
Bitcoin increased by 500% in five years, I am confused, help me out here, could it be that money printing just inflated the prices ?
Looks like a pretty good store of value to me, and to another 200 thousand New Zealanders.
As you say, eggs have doubled in prices, that doesn't mean they're a store of value either.
Correct. Eggs eventually rot so they lose their essential properties relatively quickly.
Also, eggs don't have a fixed supply. Completely different monetary policy to something like BTC.
It's use as money is fairly limited, not just due to the much smaller ecosystem, but also due to Greshams Law - "bad" money gets spent before "good". You're as unlikely to use Bitcoin to buy a new washing machine as you are gold, or liquidating your Picasso.
Not that its utility matters, all you need is enough other people to agree on a value.
Oh good, some more attempt at ad hominem. I think, folksy wisdom is what I'm aiming for, sounds like I've succeeded.
Transacting in crypto is far less convenient than domestic fiat. So if Bitcoin's value is partially derived from it's use case, dollars should hold more sway, in that arena.
A functional, common use crypto (so something most people would use regularly) shouldn't be prone to the same sort of valuation proposition.
What percentage of the day to day trade you do is in BTC vs Fiat? You're paying for your utilities, supermarket shopping, coffee and maccas in BTC, and they all accept it? And your income is earned in BTC?
And what percentage of the general population are using it more, or less?
Giving specific use cases does not represent the wider realities - and even then, unless someone holds BTC, they have to effectively do 3 currency conversions to use it for overseas travel expenses. I've used BTC, where it's more convenient, but that's a fraction of a percent of the financial transactions I undertake. Most everything else is far more practical to use domestic fiat.
Everything has been on Wirex card, coffee, bus fares, buying a banana...the better looking one wanted cash but took us a long time to spend it.
The world is fast moving on from cash to Stable coins, BTC...all without banks clipping the ticket
This trip is proof in the pudding but I'm on the wrong site for such enlightened views.
Everything has been on Wirex card, coffee, bus fares, buying a banana...the better looking one wanted cash but took us a long time to spend it.
I mean in your life, not on a trip - my comment you're disputing was in relation to the total sum of ones use of an exchange medium. Even your example of a use case, still has the transaction terminating in domestic fiat. You've just added an intermediary, which could also be a regular old wise card, in any denomination.
How many vendors on your trip would directly accept BTC?
It was desiged as a currency deflation hedge. It beautifully exposes the lie that is assumed by all being trust in the FIAT money model. I'm a bit surprised you don't see this, as this is essentially the same argument that property speculators rely on for endless capital growth.
The interesting difference is that it in essence has a dti of zero as you have to use cash paid money to aquire, not a bank loan secured against it. Must say I wonder if that will always be the case.
Side bonus is you actually own it outside of the control of global banking and govt interests. Where as, land speculation you are just a risk proxy for global banking interests who are the actual owners.
I missed that. I had a beef about the application. Predominantly, around 80% all Maori stuff. I've had a quick look at the rejection report and if this is has failed the fast track approval process then the RMA is in full swing. Essentially no exemptions from the RMA.
"Xero is seeing nearly a third of Kiwi small businesses are reducing their workforces" doesn't really match with "Business confidence shot up another +5 points to its highest level in a decade".
That’s just what Xero would capture. May companies use Xero for accounting but not payroll, myself included. I’ve got the perfect worker at the moment, I don’t have the hours for him. I can’t even find someone willing to take him on a casual basis contracting. It must be so hard out there for those who have lost their job in 2024 to find new employment. One way ticket to Australia the most likely bet.
I think this also explains the increase we are seeing with ACC. Workers are hearing from their workmates that it’s dead quiet at work. Jimmy was laid off last week etc. They’re milking ACC for all it’s worth, more money than what they can get on a job seeker benefit. You’ll find doctors very cautious in getting workers back to work if the worker plays his cards right.
What Zero is seeing matches completely with "business confidence".
Um. No.
Xero's is a lagging indicator.
The other is a "hopium" indicator. (Sorry, I can't bring myself to pretending it is a 'leading' indicator.)
Business and consumer 'reckons' at this stage of the cycle are notorious for being 6-12, or even longer, wrong.
NZ housing market remains bogged down by a flood of listings here. Provided sales volumes are high enough over summer, the inventory backlog will be cleared and prices are expected to begin rising over 2025 (according to ANZ)
If 3000 listings per month are currently being withdrawn due to poor market conditions here, indications are that ANZ's prediction looks like wishful thinking....
Sorry Zwifter.
Blackrock ETF took in $870 million of BTC just today - a new record
And I see Microstrategy is raising funds to buy $42B of bitcoin. That's double what the ETFs hold.
Think I may have sold a bit too early. We'll see
Also - Bitcoin had a record high in NZD yesterday. Not too bad for rat poison
That Microstrategy announcement has got everyone’s attention. That’s the largest ATM equity offering in the history of capital markets.
A 42 Billion dollar purchase at todays prices is 577,160 BTC. Only 492,750 BTC will be issued over the next 3 years, so this is a massive proposal. Buckle up.
MSTR has gained more value for shareholders than any S&P 500 company since they started this Bitcoin Strategy in Aug 2020. Gained almost twice as much as NVDA (1989% vs NVDA at 1165%) and outperformed Bitcoin, which itself has outperformed 99% of S&P stocks.
And the majority of people reading this still think Bitcoin is some kind of ponzi, because they read it in the Herald a decade ago.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen has recently emphasized that fraud within the banking system is increasingly becoming a significant issue. During a speech at an event hosted by the American Bankers Association.
Yellen's comments come amid reports indicating a rise in various forms of financial fraud impacting banks, fintechs, and credit unions. For instance, over 50% of financial institutions reported an increase in business fraud, and more than two-thirds noted a rise in consumer fraud.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-29/yellen-says-fraud-is…
It's not the buyers of 10 years ago, sitting pretty, that are going to be of increasing concern to the future price structure. But the ones of 30 and 40 years ago. They are increasingly going to be looking to cash-in as they age, for any one of many good reasons, and the further back we look, the less Debt they have (if any) and the less they have to sell for to still be sitting pretty.
Need to consider that it might be a bit of a drag for the Interest.Co staff also to have to wade through all the bumf and worse, when they could instead be attending to more positive and productive work. Reducing the overall number of comments reduces such work required and that affect might turn out to be more than pro rata too.
The most interesting stuff at the water chiller apart from office gossip on personalities is inside knowledge. Incl ballsups which never see the light of day.
Very occasionally someone has some inside knowledge to share on this site. In my view these are the most interesting posts here.
Definitely a degradation of commentary this year (since the election?). Significant increase in immediate personal abuse / ad hominem attacks on anyone who disagrees with certain commenters. I've personally received this a few times & called it out, without responding in kind.
Sticks and stones etc however it's wearisome. I can understand why David wants to raise the tone.
Sticks and stones etc however it's wearisome
I don't really care what anyone calls me, but it's super hard to have a bidirectional conversation when people want to try and play the "who can say the worst thing about the other" game.
Effectively it ends up overshadowing whatever good point someone might have.
You can't really afford to take any of what's going on in the world too seriously.
In my commercial life I try to get the current state of affairs from most of the people I talk to. It's kinda rare for any of them, regardless of station, to have the same sort of view as many of the ones here.
Well, there's a scaffolder I know. Although they're pretty conspiratorial.
The U.S. Treasury has released a 17-page report on digital assets and tokenization. Something's up.
Very useful read.
https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/221/CombinedChargesforArchivesQ4…
Some interesting stats I have collected based on monitoring portfolio and price action since 7 August.
These are annualized returns I should add. I should also add 7 August was very much a local bottom in the market following the Japanese central bank interest rise. Figures are in NZD.
My crypto portfolio (remember I kept 10%) = 229% (note 25% of this is stable coins)
My direct ETF and share portfolio = 60%
My managed funds (mix of growth / balance / Australia) = 13%
SNP500 = 52%
Bitcoin = 124%
An interesting mix of numbers above. Bit miffed about my managed funds, should have chucked it in VOO or something
Fonterra started commissioning their Edendale electrode boiler yesterday,the project sees Co2 reduction of 47Kt,and a reduction of HRV on southland roads.
https://www.fonterra.com/nz/en/our-stories/articles/edendales-new-elect…
I hope its the last one, particularly as its likely to more expensive to run than the steam generator it replaced. The only thing I can think to justify it is that the capital cost was low and it replaced a steam generator that came out of the ark that was high in maintenance costs.
UK Labour looking more like a real Labour Party than what we have here - centrists with a progressive veneer
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/30/business/uk-budget-capital-gains-tax…
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