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Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
Westpac has literally just announced a fresh round of fixed-term cuts, effective Friday. They're for its six-month to four-year rates. For the bank's "special" rates, cuts range from a four basis points trim to its six-month rate, to a 20 basis points reduction to its two-year rate, taking that to 5.79%.
Kainga Ora has also made a series of rate cuts. See all mortgage rates here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Westpac has also cut six, eight, nine, 12 and 18-month term deposit rates, plus its two-year rate, by five to 10 basis points. ASB cut its 'Headstart' and 'FastSaver' rates by 25 basis points each. And ICBC cut some term deposit rates by up to 25 basis points. All savings rates are here.
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE JUMPS, FROM A LOW EBB
ANZ's latest Business Outlook Survey shows business confidence has soared to its highest level in a decade. The headline 'confidence' measure in the survey jumped 23 points to a decade-high +51 in August, while the 'expected own activity' measure put on 21 points to +37, a seven-year high. ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner said although the latest survey "showed a flurry of optimism," the hurdle for expecting better times ahead is "very low."
'RAPIDLY DETERIORATING ECONOMIC CONDITIONS' HIT HEARTLAND
Heartland Group Holdings' annual profit after tax fell 22% as loan impairments rose and expenses increased. Heartland's June-year profit came in at $74.5 million versus $95.9 million last year. Loan impairments doubled to $46.4 million, with Heartland's management saying the business was impacted by rapidly deteriorating economic conditions in May and June, leading to additional provisions in its asset finance, motor finance and rural portfolios. Operating expenses rose $11.3 million, or 9%, to $139.4 million. Net operating income rose $864,000 to $290.7 million, with net interest income falling. A final dividend of 3 cents per share will be paid, down from 5.5c last year. Heartland said its profit on an underlying basis of $102.7 million was 4.9% below its guidance. No guidance for the new financial year was provided.
AIR NZ PROFIT TUMBLES
Air New Zealand's annual profit fell to $146 million from $412 million last year, and the airline's not providing any profit guidance for its new financial year.
NZX EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
Check out our quick update story on how the NZX is faring today, as at 3pm. We welcome comments on that update story.
NZ CONTINUES CLIMATE TALKS WITH CHINA
Climate Change Minister Simon Watts announced the Chinese Minister of Ecology and Environment, Huang Runqiu, is leaving NZ today after the Fifth Ministerial Climate Change Dialogue between NZ and China. Watts said China was an important climate partner for NZ and “vital” to efforts to reduce the impacts of climate change globally. This year marks the 10th anniversary of the NZ-China Climate Change Cooperation Arrangement, which involves the two countries engaging on climate friendly issues like green finance and the Emissions Trading Scheme. Watts said a lot of innovation had occurred over the last decade. He added NZ was committed to “strengthening cooperation in areas of shared interest with China” which include carbon markets and nature based solutions to climate change.
JAMES AND THE GIANT CLIMATE CHANGE SOLUTIONS
Former Climate Change Minister James Shaw thinks solutions to climate change represent the greatest investment opportunity for NZ since the rebuild after World War II. Speaking to the Building Nations Conference, Shaw described climate solutions as being infrastructure related in "virtually every category that you can think of."
WESTPAC NZ TO ISSUE PERPETUAL PREFERENCE SHARES
Westpac NZ is looking to borrow $100 million, plus unlimited oversubscriptions at its own discretion, via a perpetual preference share (PPS) issue. The PPS won't have a fixed term and will remain on issue indefinitely if not redeemed by Westpac NZ. The distribution rate for investors, until a first optional redemption date, will be a fixed rate equal to the sum of the swap rate plus the margin, after which it will change to a floating rate that resets quarterly. The PPS have a BBB+ S&P credit rating, four notches below the bank's own AA- rating. The PPS will be Additional Tier 1 Capital for Westpac NZ's regulatory capital requirements.
NZD STRENTHENS
The Kiwi dollar has firmed a little over the course of the day, rising to US62.86 cents from US62.3c this morning, to AU92.51 from AU92c, and to 56.45 euro cents from 56.1c this morning.
GOVT BOND TENDER
Details of today's government bond tender are here.
SWAP RATES
Our chart below will record the final positions today for wholesale swap rates.
CARBON PRICE HIGHER
The carbon price is marginally higher at $61/NZU, than the $60.70/NZU it was at this time yesterday. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
BITCOIN UP SLIGHTLY
The bitcoin price is up slightly at the time of writing, at US$59,140.
Daily exchange rates
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This soil moisture chart is animated here.
Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».
61 Comments
Bizarre reading the headline that we have surging business confidence and falling interest rates. If we really do have high business confidence there is no reason for further rate cuts with inflation where it is at.
Is our next GDP number going to be terrible while business confidence is high?
Read between the lines. ANZ surveys Kiwi businesses on their orderbook, current workload, cost pressures, pricing, hiring intentions, etc. and comes up with results that are the opposite of what the business suggest they feel when Business NZ asks the same questions (PMI / PSI).
Either the businesses are lying or, more likely, banks are using these surveys to manipulate market behaviour by introducing false confidence.
Based on some of these comments it is suggestive that we aren’t going to need to drop rates much at all to turn sentiment around and have excess aggregate demand pushing inflation back up once more.
I mean we drop 0.25 and look what had happened - everyone feels like it’s time to head back to the races.
If I were Orr I’d now be sitting on the OCR as it is for another 6 months.
The housing market is still very weak. The neighbours sold yesterday for 100k (10%) less than they paid in 2019. And 400k below CV, On another sudject, its hard to get bent shameless bludgers out of parliament, they hang on to the 6 figure salary for as long as they can. While they are there as independents they are completely ineffectual, a complete waste of tax payers money. TAKE THE HINT and buggar off !
by Averageman | 2nd Aug 24, 10:40am
Over leveraged speculation is akin to gambling. It is quite different to true investment with a risk balanced return/yield. Banks lending practice and central bank actions have rewarded the gambling option for so long people thinks it normal. It is not. In the US you can send the keys back to the bank via no recourse lending. The opposite applies in NZ. We are more aligned with its original definition under French Law used during in the Middle Ages meaning "death pledge". A rate change of 5.5% would be a big drop from today's 6 month rates of more or less 7%.
Do you mind discussing your thinking here, eg carefully weighed analysis or other etc...?
where is the avergeman 2 years at 5.79? Not far of the 5.5?
Bernard Hickey's Kaka is worth a read:
https://thekaka.substack.com/p/what-austerity-actually-means-and?r=b3i2…
A big chunk of the health increase is going to be absorbed by historic holiday pay settlements. The rest will be absorbed by recent pay equity settlements.
I worked in the NHS during the Tory austerity in the early 2010s, and this certainly feels similar. Struggling to get vacancies filled, unable to get funding to upgrade end of life software and hardware.
I don't remember being asked if I wanted to take voluntary redundancy in the UK either, and the wording of that email suggests the involuntary stuff will follow shortly.
I'd be interest to see your source as well. Looks like less than 2 billion increase for health to me, about 6%. That's a pretty skinny increase given population growth, aging, inflation and the large pay rises delivered recently.
https://www.interest.co.nz/public-policy/128083/budget-202425-summary-a…
So it would be a truthful statement to say that our business leaders confidence is detached from realty - and if this is true, are they really suited to be in the positions that they currently hold? Or is it better to be delusional but optimistic, rather than honest/pragmatic but realistic?
I think their confidence in the future is in large part shaped by whether they think the Govt will introduce business-friendly policy. I guess that doesn't stop them running a business well. I ran businesses (pretty) well many years ago without having much of a clue what the economy was going to do over the following year or so!
I don't under stand how you can be so left but also think that the bottom is so in in asset prices, unless you are a leftie who has been suckered into buying overvalued assets, I will watch and learn
I am part dgm and part spruiker, but my personality seems definable, you are an inigma
Heartland shares down 12% today, and 30% since the star of the year. As noted above, the pressure is on. The last thing they need is for lower interest rates attracting lower calibre borrowers. Or other lenders cannibalising their existing loan book to take the best bits.
Worth remembering that when you look at business confidence surveys from across the world - the NZ business survey is the absolute worse at predicting what will happen to NZ GDP! Yes, you read that right.
thats ok i had no confidence the bottom was in
I once worked on the intergation of Salomon Smith Barney and Citibank, (to Citigroup) their head interest rate trader had a thing stuck onto his monitor that simply read
"This is not the bottom you fool!" he was a great guy
That explains why we keep voting in people who have business experience into government who then f*** things up royally. Private sectors skills do not necessarily transfer well to public sector, I didn't realise it was because the New Zealand private sector was so useless at understanding macro-trends.
I want to hear more about your ideas on this front JFoe, and how we could all share the benefits of that journey, I think its a good insulating factor that we should aspire too, i was a bit pissed about the refinery shutdown, I like to have resiilience cards to play in my hand
We require the energy and food we go through to be part of a global trade economy.
If the price of fuel shot up 1000%, for instance, that same food and energy requirement likely won't be the same. We'd have more than enough food for the country, and wouldn't consume the same amount of energy as overall usage would be way down.
And we'd likely have a whole host of much greater issues, you likely couldn't insulate for.
We still don't even have an adequate quarantine infrastructure for the next pandemic.
Just trying to figure out if 30,000+ folk taking out mortgages tomorrow would solve anything ? Thoughts anyone... ? Can we find 30,000+ Republicans to test the economy ......lol
Battle Hymn of the Republic
Song by Julia Ward Howe and William Steffe
"Mine eyes have seen the glory of the coming of the Lord
He is trampling out the vintage where the grapes of wrath are stored
He hath loosed the fateful lightning of His terrible swift sword
His truth is marching on"
you have framed it wrong
Lots of people taking out new FHBer mortgages that allowed then to have residual income left to help build a real service economy in NZ would be both normal and constructive. Until then excessive risk dominates and could eventuate. Many FHBers are stretched like a rubber band.
In the past they (CBers) have kicked the can hard and its gone 2-3 years down the path, now they kick just as hard and it seems that the can is in our face the next month. Predicting 24-36 months out seems to be impossible when our bank economists have no record of the next 12 months.
A hedge is wise, gold BTC etc seems to be in focus given the price movements observed.
Denial is pointless, gold does not rise like this in a riskless environment.
Sadly this is probably the most accurate version of the 'battle hymn of the republic' today ....lol https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1eR0ckpJ3bk
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