The economic data flow since last week has "fully vindicated" the Reserve Bank's decision to cut the Official Cash Rate, BNZ's head of research Stephen Toplis says.
In a BNZ Markets Outlook publication, Toplis said economic data out since Wednesday, August 14 when the RBNZ reduced the OCR from 5.5% to 5.25% had "provided further evidence the economy is going backwards, that job losses will mount and that inflation is falling rapidly".
"The good news, if you can call it that, is that we believe the third quarter of 2024, the quarter we are in now, will represent the low in the economic cycle. We think Q4 will be modestly positive and quarterly growth next year will be reasonable. Both business and consumer confidence are likely to start rising straight away but the real economy response to easing monetary conditions will take a little longer," Toplis said.
"Be that as it may we are in a big hole and it will take a long time to emerge from it.
"By our estimates it will be the end of the March Quarter 2025 before the economy gets back to its previous peak of the third quarter of 2022. However, if you discount for population growth we’ll have to wait until the end of March 2029 for per capita output to return to previous levels!"
He said the other point to note is that the labour market lags the real economy.
"By our reckoning the unemployment rate will keep rising through to the end of September 2025."
Toplis also commented on the Performance of Service Industries and Performance of Manufacturing Industries indexes for July, which both showed recoveries, but from what were dire June results.
"Put the PMI and PSI together and they are consistent with the economy going backwards at a 4.0% annual pace. We are not forecasting anything like this but these data clearly show where the risks lie," Toplis said.
"The employment indicators also support our view that the unemployment rate is headed higher. We are forecasting a potential peak of over 5.5%. There is nothing in these data to dissuade us from that view."
He said adding to the "soft real economy data" were the Electronic Card Transactions released late last week.
"Compared with year earlier levels sales fell 3.9%. If you adjust this for inflation and population growth then you are looking at a real per capita decline approaching 8.0%!"
Toplis said, however, that the Selected Price Indexes data released also late last week had shown further evidence of reducing inflation.
"We had thought there was upside risk to the RBNZ’s projection that the CPI would increase 0.8% in the September quarter. But we don’t now. Thanks to greater weakness in the monthly indicators than we had anticipated, we have revised down our Q3 CPI expectation from 1.0% to 0.8% matching the Reserve Bank’s forecast of annual inflation dropping to 2.3%."
The BNZ economists along with those at Kiwibank and later ASB had called for the RBNZ to cut the OCR last week.
The Kiwibank economics team of chief economist Jarrod Kerr, senior economist Mary Jo Vergara and economist Sabrina Delgado said in their latest First View publication that they applauded the RBNZ's confidence to cut. "And we expect to see many more."
The Kiwibank economists expect last week’s move to be the first in "a twelve step move".
"We expect to see twelve 25bp [basis-point] cuts, so 300bps in total. If the RBNZ wants to remove the restrictiveness of interest rates, they need to go back to a neutral (Goldilocks, not to hot , not too cold) setting. That Goldilocks rate is estimated to be around 2.75%, a long way from 5.25%. And we think they’ll need to go a little below, to get things moving. Mortgage rates, business lending rates have a long way to go, south. And so too do savings rates."
They said it is the magnitude of rate cuts that impacts business decisions, and household confidence. And they forecast - now with a much greater degree of confidence - that 2025 will be a better year than 2024, "and let’s put 2023 behind us".
But they said that as great as the delivery of rate cuts is, "we can’t ignore the complete U-turn that the RBNZ has pulled from May".
"To go from signalling rate hikes to cutting in one forecasting round is a huge shift. And there was a very dramatic downgrade to their forecasts."
Last Thursday Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr had told Parliament's Finance & Expenditure Committee that there had not been a U-turn.
However, the Kiwibank economists said that from the RBNZ’s point of view, "they claimed the weakening in high frequency data was one of the main reasons they had the confidence to cut".
"That’s all well and true. But, and here’s the important part, the high frequency data turned and deteriorated a long time ago. It’s why we have called for much earlier cuts from the RBNZ. Back in May, when they signalled a hike (not a cut) and no chance of a cut until the second half of 2025, we pushed back, and highlighted the downside risks. And we recommended a cut last week as well."
75 Comments
Let's not forget that correlation isn't causation. ;-)
That said, NZ's economy is so unbalanced that it's hard not to conclude that 'houses' aren't our main industry. (Time we built more, rather than bidding up the prices. more debt (money) to build = good. more debt (money) to bid up prices = bad, very bad.)
Lol, here you go...
SO, we're heading towards a lost half-decade-plus; is anyone really surprised?
2 in 5 graduates that our broken education system pumps out are functionally illiterate. Let's not even discuss how we fare on numeracy skills as a country. To make matters worse, for more than a decade we scraped the bottom of the barrel adding a million-plus low-skilled migrants and lost our brightest to greener pastures.
The way I see it is our per capita output is correcting to a lower baseline in-line with our economic capabilities.
I wonder if our low skilled migrants have better numeracy and literacy skills than the young kiwis leaving.
The way I see it is our per capita output is correcting to a lower baseline in-line with our economic capabilities.
Much (most) of the West has just been borrowing for decades to compensate for the fact they're relatively less valuable as a production source than when most of our competition was wearing bamboo hats and chasing buffalo around a field.
"By our estimates it will be the end of the March Quarter 2025 before the economy gets back to its previous peak of the third quarter of 2022. However, if you discount for population growth we’ll have to wait until the end of March 2029 for per capita output to return to previous levels!"
The bigger the party, the bigger the hangover.
I love the tapestry of economics, GDP, or GDP per capita...hmmm I wonder which data will be used in March '25 😂
Our economy is going to be cooked for a while, but anyone who truly believes the "ponzi" has been completely extinguised is dreaming...yep, prices will continue to decline for a while yet then most likely plateau for a while after that, wage growth might be ambitious over the next year or so but it will average out better than the drop in house prices so it'll start to look a bit more "affordable", unemployment looks nasty but its only nasty for the 5.5-6%, still a pretty chunky number employed so the worry about job stability slowly erodes, residential construction will continue to drop and the media will shout loudly about the housing shortage so that lil bit of FOMO starts to drift into folks minds...then interest rates, lets assume they cut at 0.25 at each opportunity till they hit 2.75 (current NIR?), with current margins we'll have one year rates around 4.25%ish at the end of '25...those rusty ole "ponzi" wheels will start slowly turning in '26...a few years of moderate but steady house price growth, then boom that GDP per capita hits in '29 and we all hear about our rockstar economy...leaves us feeling pretty wealthy again...sh*t goes mental for a wee while...until it crashes again 🤦🏻♂️🚴🏻♀️⭕️
Hey, it is all make believe/crystal ball/tea leaves kinda bullish*t I know...but if I was betting on it...this is the punt I'd take
Doesn’t make much sense to me. In one sentence is says things will be looking better later in the year, but then also says unemployment will keep rising until the end of next year. A lot of cognitive dissonance going in with these views (in my personal opinion). ‘Everything is going to be fine but also bad’
Makes perfect sense to me.
Some people - those with money in TDs - will spend it on other things, with some asset classes (e.g. rental property) receiving the spend (until it runs out).
At the same time, some people will lose their jobs and businesses will fail.
Businesses will rebuild off the backs of workers getting no pay rises due to worker surpluses (and worker fear).
Multiple things occur in an economy at all times. Some grow. Some contract. (We're still firmly in the contraction phase ... with a contractionary OCR to ensure the contraction continues. Have I mentioned central banks always hold to high, for too long?)
‘We think Q4 will be modestly positive’
Really, Stephen?
would be interesting to hear his rationale. Presumably it is because ‘Q3 was so bad, that the only way is up’
I am not so sure.
A pretty decent number of people need to re-mortgage by year’s end. They will be doing so at significantly higher rates than what they have been on, impacting discretionary spend potential.
There will still be plenty of employment uncertainty hanging around.
There will be Black Friday and Xmas boosts, but those should be seasonally adjusted out.
He might have a chance of being right, line call.
I am calling the first 3 quarters of 2025 as being decidedly sickly, before there’s a bit of a pick up Q4 2025.
The economy will be kind of ok by mid 2026, a nice lead in to an electoral victory later that year for the Nats.
GDP this, productivity that, 'going for growth', tight labour markets, real interest rates... Blah, blah, blah.
How we measure success is simply broken. Our go to measure of success (GDP) now basically measures how much debt banks have created (and to a lesser degree the intensity of our energy and materials use). Same goes for labour productivity (profit / hours worked). This is not an accident - our favoured measures go up when companies and rentiers make profits and we recklessly cash in on our ecosystem. Is that what success looks like...? Households and businesses going into ever deeper debt... banks printing money to pump through the property ponzi and into the accounts of wealthy savers...?
Historically people didn't have much, so the material items afforded by more money had a far greater impact on personal wellbeing than in 2024. So GDP or value of an hour worked was a fairly easy way to determine whether things were getting better or worse.
It's still relevant today, on the basis most people need money to afford life's basics, but arguably less so.
Trouble is, where do you go from here, how do you measure it, and who's responsible for it. "Individual wellbeing" or some such is fairly subjective.
I share your frustration, Jfoe.
I don't think we're measuring the right things. And the things we do measure seem specifically chosen to hide the effects on top and the bottom, and everyone in between.
Do you think using per capita by quintiles / deciles measures would work better? e.g. disposable incomes. (IRD must have mountains of data that could be mined!)
What would you measure?
ECONOMICS and eCONomics - two very different things
The fourth paragraph in David's article gets very close to some of the extremely uncomfortable home truths about the true state of NZs economy - " "Be that as it may we are in a big hole and it will take a long time to emerge from it."
I would modify it to .... "it will take an eternity to emerge from it because we are still digging the hole.
REAL ECONOMIES vs FINANCIAL ECONOMIES
The depressing numbers in the article are a direct result of NZ and Western economies making no distinction between their productive economy, which keeps the economy afloat, and the parasitic casino financial economy which does exactly the opposite.
That is precisely why we are still digging a giant hole for ourselves and for future generations, and why at over 600% of GDP NZ's total debt (that figure includes unfunded liabilities) makes us more indebted than Greece - a country which most people regard as the archetypical bankrupt economy of the entire planet. At this level of indebtedness, which is at a similar percentage level to the USA, NZ is already technically insolvent.
To give you some idea of how insolvent the USA is, just on their public debt alone at around 130% of GDP and over $35 trillion, the figure is increasing by $1 trillion every 100 days - the first $1 trillion took nearly 200 years to accumulate, now it takes a mere 100 days.
NZ's nominal GDP in 2023 was roughly US $249 billion. Another way to put these outrageous numbers into context is to illustrate that the US public debt grows by the equivalent of 400% of NZ's annual GDP every 100 days - or for that matter similar to the state of Kentucky's GDP figure, their 28th ranked state for GDP - annually this amounts to a mind-numbing annual increase at 1460% of the equivalent of the GDP of Kentucky or NZ.
GLOBAL DEBT = 350% OF GDP and growing
My maths tells me that the only major Western economy that is not technically insolvent is Australia - their total debt last time I checked was around 250% of GDP. The total debt of the global economy is ~350% of GDP, meaning that Australia is below that average and we, at more than 600%, are one hell of a long way higher.
There is a whole raft of reasons as to why none of this trend is even remotely sustainable. Zero will change until we realise as a nation that we need major reform and a return to the PBS (Public Banking Solution) - similar to what we successfully deployed in the 1930s. This was our way out of the Great Depression, a disaster orchestrated by the very same global banksters, that still prey on Mainsteet to this day, and are busy conducting this latest pump-and-dump debacle.
The huge problem now is that the level of global indebtedness is exponentially worse than it was in 1929 - the meltdown that is looming will be exponentially worse too. Equity markets post-depression took the timespan of an entire generation just to get back to the market cap where they were in 1929 before the crash.
Also, there are estimated to be between $2.5 and $3.7 quadrillion (1 quadrillion = 100 Trillion), or around 37x global GDP, (notional value) of global derivatives (casino bets) - they are now something like 60 times what they were leading into the Lehman debacle - what could possibly go wrong this time?
SOLUTIONS?
The only solution I know of is a return to a proven model where money is created as a public utility, rather than by private banks which rob the country of billions of dollars per annum in economic rent when there is zero justification for allowing them this crazy windfall.
The corollary would be a flat rate FTT tax, which would immediately take much of the burden off the productive economy and penalise the parasitic and privately owned financial sector.
The biggest challenge, if we ever have the presence of mind as a nation to implement this fundamental reform, will be in avoiding idiotic shill politicians being persuaded to surrender the model back to the global banking barons again - precisely what happened to NZ, Aus and Canada when we all lost our incredibly successful PBS models. Had we managed to retain them, we would have become the wealthiest economies on the planet.
MONEY CREATION AS A PUBLIC UTILITY
The PBS is another way of describing money and liquidity being created as a public utility - precisely what these two simple words mean - money creation for the benefit of society as a whole, rather than for the owners of these giant private banking corporations.
By definition, this system invests in and rewards the real economy and creates sustainable wealth for all of the domestic economy rather than the global financial kleptocracy. This means capital flows into the production of goods and services, and investing in technology, which in turn lowers the cost of production.
Without the private banking parasites described above, this means that the cost of production is reduced and produces deflation, rather than the inflation that eviscerates the productive sector and the benefits of savings that by definition come with a PBS model
Obviously, the PBS model doesn't blow asset bubbles because it doesn't have this fixation on investing in assets that already exist. Minus the deliberate blowing of asset bubbles, housing becomes affordable, and moral hazard and local knowledge bring strict discipline back into lending, in turn reducing the risk factor and the creation of toxic debt.
Almost all commentators love to steer the conversation towards NZ's 45% debt:GDP ratio, and conveniently away from the giant gorilla ensconced on the kitchen table - this is the more than 1200% total indebtedness figure, which they avoid like the plague.
They never mention the 'sustainability' (sic) of the giant debt trap we have dug for ourselves. How on earth do these people imagine that there will be any easing of rates when the risk factor in lending is going through the roof?
The natural progression of interest rates, at least in the Western fiat casino world, has to be hiking not easing.
THE BRICS+ PHENOMINON
Why on earth on this platform is there zero mention of the emergence of the BRICS+ bloc and its monumental associated initiatives which will soon become the nemesis of the Western fiat financial casino?
There is zero mention of the fact that the petro-dollar has already gone up in smoke and that there is no longer anything tangible backing the US dollar. I predict it will be the very last national currency to serve as a truly dominant global reserve currency.
All of the Western fiat currencies are doomed because of this massive debt trap that they have dug for themselves. The US dollar is now only worth 3 cents in the dollar - down from 100 cents in 1913 when the Fed was conceived. It will end up where all fiat currencies do - at ZERO.
The US Fed is the only central bank that has chosen to bet against gold to vainly try to mask the plummeting purchasing power of the national currency. The BRICS+ sphere countries have spent the last few years gold stacking since it was announced by the BIS that gold was effectively being globally remonetized and would qualify as a Tier 1 balance sheet asset.
This now facilitates de-dollarisation into an asset with no counterparty risk and a massive opportunity to gain a huge yield rather than risking holding fiat dollar-denominated assets. They can also sell dollars and buy in excess commodities like copper that they need in the future and that because of changing supply/demand factors, could be a huge future windfall.
THE BRICS+ 'UNIT' - A NEW PARADIGM AS A TRADE CURRENCY INSTRUMENT
This is the first time in the history of our species that a reserve currency is proposed which is not national currency.
And the problem for ALL fiat currencies - well for starters they are all in various states of insolvency and rely on selling treasury bonds to fund their countries' deficit spending, plus their existing and massively growing debt. IOW they have to continue to try to find suckers to buy the debt of an already insolvent entity.
The new UNIT is likely to be announced in September or October at the Astana BRICS+ Summit and it has already been agreed within the BRICS+ bloc that it will be backed by 40% physical gold minted in 1 kg bars and 60% by a basket of BRICS+ member currencies.
The problem looming for all fiat currencies is that the BRICS+ countries have accumulated 10s of thousands of tons of gold, China alone could well have more than 30,000 tons with the equivalent again that could be pledged by private owners, whereas a country like the US, which claims to own 8322 tons, but when push comes to shove, because of rampant rehypothecation and multiple leasing, could very well turn out to own a negative tonnage.
The BRICS+ bloc, which incidentally has somewhere around 90% of the population of the world begging to join, at any stage could declare a buy price in Moscow (MOEX) or Shanghai (SGE) and effectively revalue gold overnight. This could well begin at the equivalent of around $3000 per oz and would re-establish a physical market price for gold that would completely wreck the paper market that for more than 50 years has manipulated the physical gold price.
This would further expose the plummeting purchasing power of the Western fiat currencies.
QUESTION - what will all of this do to our Western currencies, our liquidity, and our interest rates?
Judging by what I read here - I am aghast - it seems that no one within the interest.co.nz think tank or its writers have even considered these monumental contingencies, or the precarious nature of the entire fiat system and its associated debt trap - or what the alternative system waiting in the pipeline could wreak on our entire economy
The BRICS+ and its associated initiatives including the BRI, which already has more than 150 member countries joined up (including NZ, I might add), are essentially ignored. This is in spite of the fact that it is the most monumental new socioeconomic/security paradigm ever encountered in the history of our species.
Colin Maxwell
I am extremely hopeful Chris, because the entire BRICS+ concept is built on a spirit of mutual respect and cooperation so that all participants can benefit and build sustainable societal wealth based on developing the real economy, rather than a financial economy, which is both parasitic and predatory.
This in itself encourages a growing and vibrant middle class with a much more even distribution of wealth.
It also discourages the development of the Western-style lobby system where a country ends up with the very best politicians that money can buy. Rather than incompetent fail-upwards shills in high office, the BRICS+ model is designed to give rise to meritocracies where the people who have the most to offer society make up the government.
The idea is to let 100 flowers bloom - IOW, precisely the opposite of central planning - instead, many new ideas are encouraged and tried, and the successful ones are there to be adopted by others based on individual merit.
What has become clear as a consistent winner in economic history, is now being rediscovered by two of the main BRICS+ economies which have extremely strong economies and minuscule debt or are even net creditor nations.
If the majority of banking is run as a public utility, then a country has discovered the key to real financial sovereignty as well as egalitarian stability and the social harmony/equality that results from this concept.
None of this is new - in fact, it is the BRICS+ countries simply borrowing Western models that worked beautifully in the days of genuine industrial capitalism which developed long-term wealth for those economies.
The US used this model incredibly successfully to recover from the Great Depression, before gradually squandering it again as they morphed into a financial economy when they off-shored most of their productive economy which subsequently further benefitted the "mega-rich", which you referenced in your question.
Cheers and regards
Colin Maxwell
China is already there Pa1nter, and Russia 90% of the way - that's two of the 5 that make up the acronym. The fact that they are both hugely successful economies has to be inspirational to the others.
Also, the 'B', Brazil, has been rocking the boat and challenging the traditional robber-baron banking models of the Neoliberal West for more than 20 years.
Lula has had a plan for 20 years for a LatAm SUR - a currency for bilateral trade that would mean the twilight of US dollar hegemony and the end of the colonial Monroe Doctrine which was centred on the rape of the resources of all Latin American countries.
Before the SUR initiative ever came to pass, it is now completely superseded by the UNIT concept. This is set to be a global trade-only currency instrument.
In fact, in January of 2022, under Alberto Fernandaz's presidency, Argentina was also on board with the proposal as a way to escape the clutches of the IMF. Of course, this was a nightmare for the Wall Street and the City of London private bankers - the comprador Milei was hastily maneuvered into position to sell out his country's resources and public utilities to corporate interests.
The rest became history, and Milei on winning the presidency immediately withdrew his country from the BRICS membership, when they had already been vetted and accepted - a major strategic win for the corporations and Western hegemony.
The 59 countries that are well on the way to joining BRICS+, now see this as a civilisational choice between a broken and completely dysfunctional Rome II model that has destroyed itself from within, and a completely new paradigm which offers true economic sovereignty and a protective security package that comes along with membership.
They are sick to death of the global bully that has been involved in 469 military interventions, including in almost every single country in LatAm, and most of the African continent.
https://www.facebook.com/colin.maxwell.129/posts/pfbid02bJZeVoRt1PHiTsR…
Once upon a time the sun never set on the British Empire - until one day it did.
We are now witnessing the end of another empire - Rome Version II - the fact that Western stalwarts remain in complete denial, doesn't change the facts on the ground - the horse has already bolted.
Surely the collapse of the fiat currencies and the hardship it brings to those economies will very quickly highlight this to the RoW's Mainstreet, and also galvanise the imminent need for what you refer to...
" a total rebuild of their leadership (and some of their societal structure)
At 70 years of age, I have learnt the hard way - to never say 'never' - very soon the Western hegemon fan base, including all of those eCONomists out there, might have to learn this hard lesson too.
Cheers
Colin
China is already there Pa1nter, and Russia 90% of the way - that's two of the 5 that make up the acronym. The fact that they are both hugely successful economies has to be inspirational to the others.
Neither of those two countries have societal structures that allow for a large middle class. Neither are the other 3. And all internally rife with corruption well above what's experienced in the West. The 3 largest players are all fairly decent adversaries with one another.
What on earth are you talking about, Pa1nter?
China alone has recently transformed more than 350 million citizens out of squalid serfdom into middle-classhood - this amounts to more than the entire current US population. Meanwhile, the US middle class is in a massive shrink phase.
China and Russia are more closely aligned on every single level than they have ever been in history - and why? - well, mainly because rampant and explicit Western neoliberalism has driven them together.
Have you ever stopped and pondered why China has only one and a half overseas military bases and the US has more than 800?
Also, if you include the alphabet agencies' budgets, the US's total annual spend comes close to $1.5 trillion which is more than the next largest 70 countries combined. This is just one country's investment in perpetual war and general mayhem.
When you add NATO into the total, the Western investment in perpetual global warfare becomes even more outrageously obscene.
Have you ever encountered the old saying - "We have met the enemy and he is us."
China alone has recently transformed more than 350 million citizens out of squalid serfdom into middle-classhood - this amounts to more than the entire current US population.
Chinese GDP per Capita is $12,000. US GDP/Capita is $76,000. How much of that gap do you think will be filled? What is your current view of the Chinese economy? How are they going to avoid closely replicating the Japanese experience?
Have you ever stopped and pondered why China has only one and a half overseas military bases and the US has more than 800?
Yup. While China was engaged in civil war for a few decades, America became the global super power, and now that China has got it's act together, there's not many places it can go.
Have you ever encountered the old saying - "We have met the enemy and he is us."
Sure. I'm not promoting the Western system, I'm just disagreeing with you on how rosey the glasses are viewing the alternatives.
There's a reason the US is still the most attractive place for migrants, and virtually no one wants to move to the others.
Hi Colin, thank you for posting on Interest. I don't possess your deep economic knowledge but I agree that BRICS+ should be discussed more often on Interest.
You say: "i have high hope because the entire BRICS+ concept is built on a spirit of mutual respect and cooperation"
I cannot agree with you on this point, I actually think this is precisely the main reason why BRICS will fail. Brazil, Russia, China, South Africa are led by highly corrupt dictators who are not at all used to "cooperation" as you put it. Their modus operandi is is "my way or jail". There's no respect at all, what there is, is a lifelong habit of corruption and screwing other people and countries.
What unites the BRICS countries is not a desire to be united, it's a desire to be able to stand up to the west. This lack of unity, corruption and dictatorships us the reason they will ultimately fail.
We all have our opinions Yvil, and thank god we can still express them - only time will prove who is correct and whether or not the BRICS+ movement will flourish.
Given that on a global population support level, it has around 90% of the world population eager to join, I am confident they will find a way to work as a team - there is simply too much at stake not to.
India, the 'I' in the acronym, will be a major precursor because of it's sheer size and strategic location - they will have to decide which system they want to be on board with by the October Astana Summit meeting.
Simple logic would suggest that given their historical victimhood as a colony, they should avoid any continued neocolonialism like the plague. The end result is obviously dependent on how strong the entrenched comprador element remains.
Also, the hegemon is very actively pouring petrol on the smouldering fire in their bordering Bangladesh, and trying to ignite yet another full-scale colour revolution. - it's what they do - straight out of their classic 'economic hitman' playbook.
One thing however is beyond any reasonable doubt - the Western Hegemon will move heaven and earth to try to retain their grip on humanity.
They will do everything they can to disrupt, including starting a 'look over here' world war.
I would politely suggest that you reflect on the seemingly endless patience demonstrated by these leaders that you refer to as 'highly corrupt dictators' in their genuine quest to avoid escalation and massive global bloodshed.
Regards
Colin
They haven't been overly expansionist (although Russia has a decent recent history of annexing neighboring territory), because corrupt dictatorships burn military energy on internal security.
I think you're being too optimistic based on the happenstance of Western decline. It assumes there's a prosperity void others will fill.
With all due respect, Pa1nter, I assume very little.
Long ago during my geopolitical studies, I learnt the hard way to carefully verify facts before I open my big gob on any of these hugely important issues.
Can you for one moment imagine the incredible contrast that would materialise if these $ trillions that the Western hegemonic system spends on bloodshed were invested into a sustainable future for the benefit of entire societies rather than for plutocrats?
Where would the "prosperity void" you refer to be then?
With all due respect, Pa1nter, I assume very little.
The underpinning of your view rests in the fortunes of BRICS going up, while the anglosphere goes down.
The only one of them with a semi-decent outlook is India.
Can you for one moment imagine the incredible contrast that would materialise if these $ trillions that the Western hegemonic system spends on bloodshed were invested into a sustainable future for the benefit of entire societies rather than for plutocrats?
It's nice to imagine lots of things. Much of the prosperity enjoyed in the 20th century was resultant in wars being won, and a military machine ensuring free and open global trade. Would everyone have been better off without that free and open global trade?
Fundamentally I would agree though, much military expenditure could be put to better use on more humane endeavours.
Imagine if when the Soviet Union fell, ownership of state assets wasn't sold off to oligarchs for cents in the dollar? Then you wouldn't have a kleptocratic petro-state.
And there you go again, perpetuating yet another myth, whilst openly supporting the Western perpetual war machine and the global destruction caused by the MIC...
" ensuring free and open global trade." - REALLY???
This has become a very revealing discussion of what can transpire when the MSM neoliberal narratives are swallowed hook line and sinker.
It's no myth. Trade routes have always needed security, for as long as trade has existed,and in the aftermath of WW2 that's been provided by the Americans. We can see global trade bringing billions out of poverty in the latter half of the 20th century.
I'm not an advocate of the MIC. There's very clearly an issue there of spending money on a machine and also provoking conflict. The Vietnam war was sparked by a false flag operation, and the domino theory was bullshit. The ideological wars in the Middle East, terrible.
I just don't allow that to polarise my wider view as much as yours seems to be.
This has become a very revealing discussion of what can transpire when the MSM neoliberal narratives are swallowed hook line and sinker.
This is a very lazy, cheap way to try and win a discussion.
You can label my comment "cheap and lazy" to your heart's content Pa1nter, but your support of the Ukraine Nazis illustrates my point.
I have completed more than 30,000 hours studying the history of geopolitics, whilst clearly you continue to swallow a bunch of MSM neoliberal memes.
Have you checked out Oliver Stone's history on the background of the Ukraine SMO yet?- it's in the link below - you don't even need to hunt it down.
The hybrid war that has been caused by the US and NATO ignoring treaties and agreements, and is now in danger of escalating into a full-on WW3, or even a nuclear apocalypse, was completely avoidable if only Russia's national security had been respected by the West.
Russia made itself very clear - they suffered more casualties in putting an end to the WW2 Nazi rampage, than all other countries combined - they have repeatedly stated that they will never again fight a major war on their soil - can you blame them, when they have been invaded by the West for centuries?"
Did your family support the Nazis during WW2 Pa1nter?
If as I suspect that wasn't the case, then what on earth would be their reaction to your explicit support of these lunatics this time around?
You said - "I see now, that there is no point engaging in discussion with you anymore."
The feeling is mutual - clearly, you have not bothered to watch Oliver Stone's account of the history of Nazis in Ukraine.
This is precisely what I would have expected - I can assure you that it won't bear any resemblance to what you would like to hear - consider this conversation closed.
Cheers and over and out
Colin
At best there was an unratified verbal agreement between the West and Gorbachev not to expand NATO to Russias borders. That does not give you license to invade a sovereign nation in the hopes of a quick 3 day coup, which has turned into a massive cluster-f that's gutting Russia (and Ukraine) of a large portion of it's working age males.
If you have spent so much time on geopolitics and the best form of rebuttal you can come up with is Nazified ad hominem, that calls into question the objective quality of the 35,000hrs.
Come now.
We established initially Colin's credentials (he told us).
Colin's said things like "with all due respect", and "I don't assume anything"
And then without knowing anything about me, we've also established I'm a Nazi sympathiser, a sucker to the main stream media, and a big fan of the military industrial complex.
Clearly, Colin is a trustworthy person who's views should be taken as word.
There is nothing remotely "ad hominem" about my comment Pa1nter, IF you care to read it in its true context, and without trying to twist it into something to your advantage.
I even generously gave you the benefit of the doubt when I assumed that your family's previous generations would probably not have supported Nazism.
You on the other hand have left ample evidence as to where you stand personally here with your comments - clearly, you remain in support of these present-day Nazi lunatics. I am merely articulating what even a blind man should be able to see.
Tell me, do you and Yvil often hunt together as a pair?
Consider this conversation closed - I see no point in continuing when I am confronted with such obvious Russiaphobia.
Over and out
Colin
Hey Colin
I don't have a problem with Russia or it's people.
It's been poorly led by dictatorial tyrants for centuries, from the Tsars to the Soviets and now Putin.
Your many opinions about me (and even more irrelevantly my family) now outnumber the number of the points I've raised that you've actually addressed.
I even generously
Generously even. You are a prince amoung men sir.
"I would politely suggest that you reflect on the seemingly endless patience demonstrated by these leaders that you refer to as 'highly corrupt dictators' in their genuine quest to avoid escalation and massive global bloodshed."
??? So you do not believe that Russia invaded Ukraine and is bombarding their cities and killing Ukrainians?
?? You do not believe that the Chinese are terribly mistreating the Uyghur population and have an expansionary agenda in the South China sea?
? You do not think there is awful corruption in South Africa, leading to abject poverty, high murder rates and exodus of population?
I like to hear more before I remove all doubt. Didn't have to wait too long.
Most things are shades of grey and it's usually easier to adopt an extreme view.
The US has definitely stirred the pot and it's in its interests to aid Russia bleeding itself out in Ukraine. Ultimately Ukranians don't want to be under Russias influence anymore, and Russia doesn't like the lack of any buffer with the West. Putin did an act that is logical, but only if you're an autocrat being fed bad information, and assuming your actions will forever go unanswered.
I am more supportive of Ukraine retaining it's sovereignty than I am of Russia feeling hard done by.
Exactly, Kea!
Professor Richard Werner (who coined the term QE) and Ellen Brown are humanity's two key movers and shakers when it comes to getting out the truth on money creation, the history of sound money, and public banking solutions.
Ellen's seminal book 'The Public Banking Solution' should be required reading for every Kiwi if we are to have any hope whatsoever of escaping this current debt trap.
Sadly, Ellen is of the very same opinion as I am - nothing much will change until the present Western hegemonic system completely unravels - it's as if we have to almost welcome financial disaster, just to try to avert an even bigger and more painfully drawn out meltdown in the future.
Because NZ is such a habitual vassal state that panders to the hegemon, we will be one of the very last countries to glimpse that shining light at the end of the tunnel that we inhabit.
By the way, if you have so much as a ring on one finger, then you own more gold than the RBNZ - remember Don Brash on his watch as Gov, saw to it that the last reserves of this 'barbarous relic' were sold - read 'squandered'.
It will be very revealing to see if I even survive as a commenter on this blog - anyway, it matters not in the big scheme of things - but at least I am one lone voice endeavouring to get this much-needed conversation started.
I have to say, I do enjoy the huge privilege of being Ellen's on the spot 'eyes and ears' Downunder.
Ellen is as gobsmacked as I am that both NZ and Aus had the PBS nailed as long as more than a century ago, and yet we lost it again when we surrendered it back into the parasitic mitts of the global robber baron kleptocracy.
Cheers and regards
Colin
Just my opinion Driftwood, but there are many exciting new energy technologies on the horizon that could lead to vastly reduced energy costs.
Do you forget that it was globilization, Kissinger's brain wave, that was directly responsible for a 600% increase in crude oil prices in the 1970s?
The road to multipolarism will no doubt provide challenges to global energy distribution because a certain hegemon wants to continue to control this supply. This is a pipe dream, as OPEC no longer exists and one by one the major oil producers are joining BRICS+.
Also, sound money and public banking utilities deployed intelligently can minimise inflation and even lead to deflation - this has been demonstrated repeatedly in history.
'Pieces of Eight' were a classic example. They were in world-wide circulation and suffered from
virtually zero debasement for the best part of four centuries.
Cheers
Colin
To Yvil and Pa1nter
I would strongly recommend you bring yourselves up to date with the real situation in Ukraine.
In order to do this, I suggest a review of the history that left Russia with no choice but to conduct an SMO in Ukraine.
This might help you both realise that we all need to avoid supporting the rejuvenation and expansion of a blatant Nazi movement which has been entrenched in that country and systematically terrorising it, prior even to WW2.
BTW, it is compiled by one of the world's most respected historians - Oliver Stone, an American who sees the error of his country's global rampage and possesses both the humility and honesty to document these atrocities...
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=ukraine+on+fire+documentary&atb=v348-1&ia=web
Hi Colin,
Didn't see this one but this thread was quite prolific.
Given the fog of war, nature of propaganda on both sides, and lack of transparency over what transpires in the words and minds of the various stake-holders, there is no way to form a 100% picture of the "real" situation.
I am fairly well educated in Russian history since the early 1800s. Much of that education is formal. I feel I can trace why Russia has invaded Ukraine for a second time this century, but it's at the end of a causative string of fairly woeful leadership.
Ukraine has some rather serious issues, is far from perfect, but fairly typical of a Nation that had to survive as a puppet state for over half a century, and being denied an opportunity to develop a robust independent leadership structure and system of its own.
There are Nazi/Nationalist Socialist movements in countries on every continent. Including Russia. But none have any significant governorship role. It is a very big stretch to make claims about Ukraine being a Nazi state.
Oliver Stone us a good director and has made light some serious and valid issues over his career. But he also has a penchant for the controversial, and runs the risk of over-reach in his claims on this basis. Many views lack wider consensus amoung any independent historians or even philosophers. I cannot take anything he says as verboten in light of more credible contrary information, including that of other Russians.
I'd suggest you consider a more holistic view but it seems you are only interested in self reinforcing information.
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