An influential survey conducted for the Reserve Bank (RBNZ) shows further significant falls in the level of expected future inflation - therefore giving a green light to interest rate cuts.
Across all the timeframes surveyed from one year's time to 10 year's time the expectations of future inflation have dropped markedly - and indeed are now converging on the RBNZ's explicitly targeted 2% level.
What the survey tells you is that key influencers think the inflation battle is being won - and also that low inflation will be here to stay.
The survey is the last significant piece of economic news for the RBNZ ahead of its next review of the Official Cash Rate on Wednesday, August 14.
While this result, I think, should not be viewed as a game changer in terms of overall considerations about just when interest rates should be coming down, the news will certainly encourage the RBNZ as its Monetary Policy Committee sits down to decide whether or not the OCR, currently at 5.50%, might be changed as soon as next week. It's not a decisive input into the interest rate debate. But it helps.
The key results of the latest Survey of Expectations, carried out quarterly for the RBNZ, show the level of inflation in two years' time is expected by respondents (mean measure) to be 2.03% - just above where the RBNZ wants actual inflation to be - and down from a reading of 2.33% in the last survey.
The two-year figure is the one that carries the most clout in the survey. And for it to have come down to - as near as darn it - the figure the RBNZ explicitly targets, is a big moment for the RBNZ. People believe the central bank has inflation in the bag.
Westpac senior economist Satish Ranchhod said expectations for inflation two-years ahead are now below the average seen since 2002 (when we shifted to a 1 to 3% target range for inflation).
"Notably, this measure has not typically fallen to these sorts of lows except at times when actual inflation has fallen below 2%," he said.
For one-year-out the expected inflation figure has dropped to 2.40% from 2.73% in the previous survey.
The five-year figure is 2.07% compared with 2.25% in the previous survey while the 10-year figure is 2.03% from 2.19%.
These results are highly significant. The RBNZ targets achieving inflation in a 1% to 3% range, with an explicit aim of 2% - but annual inflation has been outside of that 1% to 3% range since June 2021.
Actual annual inflation was 3.3% as of the end of the June quarter 2024, down from 4.0% in March.
The RBNZ's current official forecast (but made in May so now quite dated) is for inflation to get back under 3% in the fourth quarter of this year, but bank economists expect inflation will go under 3% by the end of the September quarter we are now in.
It's important from the RBNZ's perspective that inflation expectations among the public are tempered. Inflation expectations are a big enemy. If people expect prices to be more expensive in a year they will start increasing prices and push for higher wages etc. And it all becomes self-fulfilling. And after the initial post pandemic global price shocks that followed the breaking of supply chains, we have seen the dreaded inflation expectations in evidence in New Zealand.
Now, according to this survey, and others such as the ANZ Business Outlook, the signs are positive that price rise expectations are being dampened.
The latest survey of expectations is the first time since the survey for September 2021 that all the inflation expectation results have come in under 3%.
This survey has in the past carried quite a bit of weight with the RBNZ (possibly not so much these days) ahead of making its OCR decisions, so these results will certainly be front of mind for the RBNZ's Monetary Policy Committee as it assembles to make the call on the OCR on Wednesday, August 14.
Will these specific results have an influence on the RBNZ's decision in the next week? In themselves, probably not, but they all help to build a picture of the battle against inflation being won - and therefore that interest rates can be dropped. It's then up to the RBNZ to decide just when it wants to pull the trigger. It could be next week, it could be later.
The RBNZ said the data for this quarter was obtained from 33 business leaders and professional forecasters by Research New Zealand – Rangahau Aotearoa on behalf of RBNZ. Field work for the survey was run between July 18 and July 26.
77 Comments
There's no way the RBNZ will cut in August 2024, you're a dreamer.
The RBNZ can't cut before the Fed.
The RBNZ said they won't cut until late 2025
The RBNZ won't cut before inflation is within the 1-3% target
The NZ economy is doing quite badly, maybe the RBNZ will cut in November 2024
The Fed are signalling they're close to pivoting, November cut for the OCR is likely
The nikkei has plunged, August OCR cut is fully priced in
Unemployment figures out are not as bad as expected, August cut is off
Inflation expectation is within RBNZ target range, August OCR cut back on
...
Your accusation is ill founded and smells of desperation. The OCR has remained higher and for longer than most expected. The calls are growing louder and louder for the RBNZ to reduce the rate sooner than the RBNZ's own original forecast as the economy is truly tanking.
Ill intentioned - really?
Anyone who predicted the economy would be in this state today, you ridiculed them as being a DGM. People like yourself never understood the true cost of bringing inflation under control and interest rates with it.
The general message of the DGMs was over leveraged property owners coming unstuck.
Very little acknowledgement was made of the wider impact to the general economy and society that'd be occuring in such an instance.
Probably down to tribal motivations, rather than accurately portraying what likely laid ahead.
Agreed - collective group think for the generation who benefited most from house prices rising and superannuation - now full of judgement for their own benefit.
Cut The Pension - CTP is my new slogan, we need to start a discussion about self-interested, entitled, rich retirees.
by longjohndrop | 8th Aug 24, 9:00pm "Cut The Pension - CTP is my new slogan, we need to start a discussion about self-interested, entitled, rich retirees"
WOW, you have grievance issues.
The one where "higher for longer" is modified to "higher and longer than some people expected", and where the housing crash DGMs were actually also conveying at length the ramifications of higher rates on the entire economy (albeit extremely quietly)?
How about we dress up "wrong" to "liberal memory" or "fluid narrative" then.
All this from someone who only acknowledged on here last April we were even having a downturn. The economy has been bleeding jobs well before then;
by Pa1nter | 12th Apr 24, 7:26am
As the sun rises on another day in Aotearoa, it'd appear the time has arrived. In recent weeks, I've heard first hand of multiple companies drastically reducing staff rosters, projects paused indefinitely. Good luck to everyone. Having done this before, I'm going to sit this one out I think.
Yet - you're back playing the professional critic and contrarian. Go figure.
Right from the get go, while you chuckleheads were salivating over higher rates wiping out PI gains and forcing sales, I made a point (almost ad nauseum) to highlight that that'd only happen in an environment where the wider economy would be shedding jobs, incomes and businesses - and that that's what the RBNZs actions were going to result in.
You guys seemingly avoided discussing this wider eventuality, yet funnily enough are changing your tunes now.
I'm worried we're never going to hear the end of it IF you are right.
Give Dr Y some space. Think of it like Nassim Taleb's Fat Tony character - portrayed as a street-smart, common-sense thinker who challenges the overly academic and theoretical approaches of Taleb's alter ego "Dr. John".
Dr Y represents the practical, empirical wisdom gained from real-world experience, in contrast to the more abstract, model-based thinking of academics and theorists. He/she/they/theirs (whatever) will argue that in many complex, real-world situations, common sense and street smarts are more valuable than sophisticated mathematical models and theories.
I just can't imagine them leaving it that late, but was just a wee laddy last time NZ went through this part of the cycle so who really knows. Based on performance in 21/22, they'll microcut a few times before breaking through the clouds and seeing nothing but mountainside ahead.
Correct. In theory the RBNZ shouldn't cut unless they fear they will drop below 2%. In practise though they tend to try and prevent wrecking the economy where possible.
They are a long way from what they define as neutral, and if we are within the target band you wouldn't expect them to have the brakes on so hard.
Orr talks big on ‘the path of least regrets’ on inflation. The evidence is not YET unequivocal that inflation is dead and buried. The guy also has a massive ego and pride. It’s egg on face territory if he cuts in August.
November allows him to save face. The data will be really bad by then, and that will give him the excuse to cut.
Having said that, I still think it’s a close call on an August cut.
There is a chance he has led us down the path of ultimate regret...don't central banks see deflation as a scarier beast than inflation? Hypothetically if the US do have a recession & the Middle East doesn't fully kick off then oil prices would drop on lower demand so tradables head further south, a huge chunk of kiwis have used their savings & will want to top that up before spending up large...& you get a general feeling that a lot of people are just financially scarred so I can't see wallets rapidly opening on a rate cut, add in the lag effect of fixed mortgages taking time to filter through anyway & NACT's austerity agenda tightening govt spending...jeez, the NZ economy won't fire a shot for a fair wee while post any cuts...so maybe deflation...then what negative interest rates...it is pretty f**ked
Very sensible post HM, I also think it's hard for Orr to cut in August without losing face (despite my long standing prediction an August cut). So it's quite possible that, instead of cutting, he will just state a strong message of intention that the cut is imminent.
Do we really think Orr is making decisions in isolation, or cares about face?
Just like many public servants, they can make decisions arbitrarily, backed up with some sort of BS pitch along the lines of "this was our intention, however conditions outside our control have changed and we're having to respond"
I think 5.5% is highly contractionary. Personally, I feel this rate cutting cycle will take us to at least 3% on the ride down. Hopefully without tanking our currency in the process! Having seen the destruction near zero rates caused - the RBNZ will be understandably reluctant to venture too low too soon.
I sort of agree with Yvil and say that the OCR shouldn't be cut but not necessarily for his theoretical reasons: I think that the supermarkets have tricked RBNZ. And my reasoning has come from the data provided by actual observation of supermarket prices which, at both P'N'Save and Woolworths, have sky-rocketed in the last week or two....too many products to name here. No, not the fresh fruit and vegetable staples that are displayed close to the front entrances (the faux 'loss-leaders' if you like), but the prices in the rest of the supermarket.
I would say that this has happened as soon as the duopoly estimated (or were told by an insider) that this latest RBNZ survey had already gathered the data for today's release. Thus, the net effect is that this survey is obsolete and simply wrong because I have noticed that likewise other retail sectors have also put up their prices.
RBNZ should have cut months ago - but given what they said at last policy statement they should all be fired if they cut in August - and should all be fired if they dont
They have made the NZ economy worse than it should be and have cost thousands their jobs as well as locked many into excessive mortgages. How many stuff ups do highly paid exec's get to make before they get the boot
I've never quite understood the underlying logic of this survey.
I may 'wish' my rates and insurance will be far less next year but the reality isn't determined by wishful thinking.
I wonder what the survey said the year before we hit the 7.4% inflation in SEP-23?
First thing I checked. If I am reading the survey correctly, this survey was predicting the following:
Date Taken: Sep 2021
Annual CPI Growth 2 Years Out: 2.27%
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Looking at these predictions it basically seems like a crapshoot. Not commenting whether or not they'll cut, nor whether or not they should.
Cool!
But let's remind ourselves of past expectations from this very same survey from 2 years ago, giving plenty of time for expected changes to happen by now. Ones like:
"OCR expected to be at 4.67% in a year’s time"
And where was it? Where is it? 5.5%
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/592b1246c6c546e2900dc590f9893901.ashx
Of course! The Professional Forecasters, who haven't really picked the right results for 3 years or more... But mark my words...one day they'll be right, just as Paul Bloxham at HSBC was once, years ago (when he picked the move no one else did), and they'll be able to dine on it for years to come.
David, a suggestion for articles like this containing evolutions of forecasts: they'll have much more meaning of accompanied by a graph showing how wrong / right they were. Basically plot the delta between expectation and reality (will make sense for at least the 1 & 2 year ones, probably the 5 & 10 need annualisation)
The are too slow to increase and too slow to cut. It will have to be a shocking quarter for inflation for the cpi not to be under 3%. 1.8 is falling out so the annual number will be 3.3-1.8+ sept qtr. less than 1.5, they are back within the range. The things that are driving inflation won’t be affected much by the ocr. Council rates might not go up as much with a lower ocr as the council’s borrowing costs will be lower.
That's the funniest thing I have read on here for a while. The last lot were out of their depth for six years, what's even worse that was obvious after only 3 years yet there was a sufficient number of stupid people in this country to put them in for a second term. If your life is a mess right now, remember you voted for it.
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